Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")

Peak oil? Regardless of the likelihood of oil running out soon, the more pressing danger to civilisation is the threat from global warming of rapid climate change. The solution? Speedily ceasing to burn fossil fuels. So peak oil is not the problem, the profit hungry bastards who refuse to allow change from reliance on oil - that's the problem.
Rapid climate change - ever more a real possibility - will make war over water a strong liklehood. We arealready seeing murderous wars over oil.
 
Kaka Tim said:
Only if people actually do something about it. A solution - or a best case scenario of harm reduction - will not come out of thin air. Your argument seem to be ''oh it'll be alright" with nothing to back it up.

Read the link and please find something that conviningly counters the doom-mongers.
Click to expand...

My argument is not "oh it'll be alright".

Try not to be such a dimwit and people might wish to engage you on your subject.
 
I certainly wouldn't complain if someone changed the title of the 'Petroleum Geologist' thread. Although it might be a good idea to keep the old title in brackets in case someone tries to search on it.
 
Well the timescale is the big unknown. It looks like the peak may already have been with us for a few years, but how long it will plateau and what the decline rate ends up being, is far from clear. These things will largely determine just how well we transition to something else, and how much pain & instability occurs along the way.

If it was extremely easy to transition away from oil massively, then it would of happened in the 1980's, after the oil shocks of the 70's. Some think that we stay with oil because of how profitable it is to a minority, which may have some truth to it, but obscures the big picture. Its not just that oil can be profitable and controlled, but that its such a cheap source of energy for everyone, not just the fat cats, it sustains so much of our way of life.

My biggest fears are not whether it runs out, but whether we handle it in the hideous old competitive human ways, ie war. Even during the boom times for oil it looks like we have small oil wars, I hope that does not translate to large wars when things get tight. Nuclear MAD stuff and global climate change agreement may help sustain the peace once decline begins, I dont know. Domestic stability is also rather unclear, especially if food is badly affected, and inflation goes nuts and unemployment rises substantially.

Other events could also obscure the reasons for deline in global oil availability, such as war or instability or terror attacks in specific oil producing nations. And considering how Russia appears to flex its energy biceps for political purposes, how they handle any inability to keep up with their existing oil export levels will surely be a big issue.
 
elbows said:
Well the timescale is the big unknown. It looks like the peak may already have been with us for a few years, but how long it will plateau and what the decline rate ends up being, is far from clear.
Click to expand...
That is one of the real key questions. I like to think I keep tabs to a degree on what is going on and to be honest I have no real idea about depletion rates. I could write a relatively convincing post decribing everything from a nice easy powerdown retaining our liberal democracies and high standards of living to near apocalyptic doom due to the finacial and political chaos of declining energy. I honestly have no real strong idea about what will transpire. All I know is the cost of coal and gas will skyrocket as oil starts depleting.

The staggering uncertainty of it all does my head in some days.
 
gentlegreen said:
Sorry mate, some of us can largely explain their unwillingness to be parents in the first place for this very reason.
Click to expand...
Yup.

Life was shit enough before. Now the prospects for a reasonable Quality of Life are disappearing faster than ever. I think people having kids now are ignorant or crazy...
:(
 
Groucho said:
Peak oil? Regardless of the likelihood of oil running out soon, the more pressing danger to civilisation is the threat from global warming of rapid climate change. The solution? Speedily ceasing to burn fossil fuels. So peak oil is not the problem, the profit hungry bastards who refuse to allow change from reliance on oil - that's the problem.
Rapid climate change - ever more a real possibility - will make war over water a strong liklehood. We arealready seeing murderous wars over oil.
Click to expand...

The problem is finding a vaible alternative energy source that will replace oil and finding it very very soon whilst planning the global economy around reducing consumption - neihter looks like happening in the forseeable. A chaotic post peak oil world will not help put the brakes on climate change - there's plenty of the stuff left to burn and thats before we resort to dirty old coal.
 
One only has to look at the most high profile example of excess living in the western world, the US. The massive size of their engines in their cars, and the massive size of their guts in their bodies adequately demonstrate human greed.

People have been living beyond the planet's means, at the expense of future generations. If peak oil is here, or nearly here, then that is a clear signal to those that live excessively to cut down.

For those interested in possible alternatives to the rampant capitalist model, then see what one man in one nation's ideas are about how to live one's life, individually, and as a society.


"The UNDP award is also in recognition of the King's visionary development-thinking. During times of rapid globalization, his "sufficiency economy" philosophy-emphasizing moderation, responsible consumption and resilience to external shocks-is of great relevance to communities worldwide."

http://www.un.org/Pubs/chronicle/2006/issue2/0206p78.htm
 
Kaka Tim said:
The problem is finding a vaible alternative energy source that will replace oil and finding it very very soon whilst planning the global economy around reducing consumption - neihter looks like happening in the forseeable. A chaotic post peak oil world will not help put the brakes on climate change - there's plenty of the stuff left to burn and thats before we resort to dirty old coal.
Click to expand...

Reduction in consumption is planned, its just via rather primitive methods like a recession, pricing people off the roads, and very slow shift to more efficient or electric cars.

If done wrongly, the peak oil & climate change will work against eachother and be a nightmare. But if done properly, the two can progress in the same direction, towards sane sustainability. They wont do it till they absolutely have to, which may be a bit late, but for example a global agreement on reducing fossil fuels, if stuck to, could prevent some resource wars.
 
fela fan said:
One only has to look at the most high profile example of excess living in the western world, the US. The massive size of their engines in their cars, and the massive size of their guts in their bodies adequately demonstrate human greed.
Click to expand...

Well USA and Europe use approximately the same amount of oil, its just there are twice as many people in Europe. So yes per head the USA is much worse than Europe, but when it comes to peak oil Im in no mood to do the usual European condesending attitude towards the USA schtick.
 
elbows said:
Well USA and Europe use approximately the same amount of oil, its just there are twice as many people in Europe. So yes per head the USA is much worse than Europe, but when it comes to peak oil Im in no mood to do the usual European condesending attitude towards the USA schtick.
Click to expand...

Not quite sure about your last comment, not sure what a schtick is either.

However i'm talking from the heart of asia and looking at western nations (ie europe) in general, the US in particular, and the amount of energy resources they use.

It will be they who have the most to lose because they've got used to certain lifestyle choices, and are living lives under the corrosive influence of the great marketing con. Of course that's spreading into all corners of the world, but those who use the most have the most to lose from less oil.
 
No, the people with the most to lose are those with not much to start with. When energy expediture makes up 50% of your budget compared to 5%, doubling the price of it effectively prices you out. Walking to mcdonalds will be a shock to many Americans, but being unable to afford to heat your home or transport your cattle to market will be much worse.
 
elbows said:
Reduction in consumption is planned, its just via rather primitive methods like a recession, pricing people off the roads, and very slow shift to more efficient or electric cars.

If done wrongly, the peak oil & climate change will work against eachother and be a nightmare. But if done properly, the two can progress in the same direction, towards sane sustainability. They wont do it till they absolutely have to, which may be a bit late, but for example a global agreement on reducing fossil fuels, if stuck to, could prevent some resource wars.
Click to expand...

They won;t do any of it all unless they are made to. What I want to know is where is the campign? Whats the plan for peak oil for those who belive in a common humanitiy sharing the planet - rather than those who belive in personal enrichment and narrow 'national interest.'?
 
Surely people will be just weaned or priced off oil, inevitably.

As supply becomes peaked and becomes limited while demand appears to be still rising, prices will go up and many will simply not be able to afford oil anymore.

Whether alternatives are found is another issue but as oil prices go higher there will be greater and greater demand for them making investments into alternatives more and more viable.
 
The thing is, 'investment' requires a healthy economy. A healthy economy requires cheap oil. The transition period will be long. We don't have that much time. Or rather, we've had plenty of time but have refused to plan for this.
 
As to how much time we have, surely the curve downward on oil availability will be just as long as the curve upwards was, a bell shape perhaps, so there will be an extended period with oil prices going up and people seeking alternatives.

Whoever comes up with viable alternatives will be in the money so I do think there will be motivation.
 
Indeed there was a bell shape upwards. However, world population, world food production, world economic output, do not like being bell-shaped curves. Or at least, not bell shaped curves with total spans of 200 years.
 
An example.

The reason cars do not today do 150mpg is because we have "wanted" power and safety more than we wanted mpg. The auto industry has the technology to produce cars that would do 150mpg but at the moment with the current price of oil there is little demand. But the price of oil will change.

Why do motorcycles often have the same mpg as a family car? again because we want power not mpg. If we wanted motorcycles or mopeds that did 200 - 250 mpg I am sure it will be possible, once oil prices permit us to value mpg over other things.
 
Someone was telling me a few days ago that I could convert my diesel car to run on vegetable oil and that this would save me loads .. didn't yet look into it but perhaps I might ..

I am already feeling the pinch fuel prices wise. It used to cost be £37 to fill up my jalopy, yesterday it cost me more than £50 for the same tank full .. good for about 400 miles.
 
It is possible to make 120mph cras. However, there are billions of cars in the world and we are not going to be able to replace them all, quickly.

You can run your car on vegetable oil quite easily
If we ran all the cars on vegetable oil, there would be nothing to eat as all the arable land would be used to grow fuel.

Your suggestions are useful, and they're certainly things we can do to reduce our oil consumption. But people have added the numbers up and the fact of the matter is that we cannot turn the whole world round as fast as oil availablility is going to decrease. Change is going to be forced on us, but it will not be new ways of carrying on like before. It will be new ways of doing much less than we did before - until the alternatives get widespread and cheap enough. That won't be for many decades. Those years in between are going to be trying times.
 
I advise people to read the link at the start of the thread.

This is not about having to pay more to fill up your car. If we are at peak oil then the global economy can pretty much only go downwards and we are going to find increasingly hard to feed people.

The time for a measured adjustment to a post oil age was about 20 years ago. In a best case scenario we are now looking at crisis managment - and if we want don't the nature of that to be determined by the narrow interests of the rich and powerful then we need to get busy.
 
Bernie Gunther said:
I certainly wouldn't complain if someone changed the title of the 'Petroleum Geologist' thread. Although it might be a good idea to keep the old title in brackets in case someone tries to search on it.
Click to expand...

I'm going to do this, because we really don't need to fork this discussion.
 
So we invest in nuclear power generation and renewables, wind and tide etc and we start to use electric or hybrid vehicles more, charged from the national grid.

Alternatively it may simply become less and less viable to live outside large cities in which (by then) green public transport can get you around. There may be a new exodus from the countryside though farmers will have to remain and what they will drive their tractors on remains an issue.

Humans are resourceful and innovative and necessity is the mother of invention. Yes I am sure you are right there are going to be very tough times ahead and there may well be considerable economic decline as a result of reducing oil availability, but it interests me what we will do and who will be winners and losers.
 
weltweit said:
Alternatively it may simply become less and less viable to live outside large cities in which (by then) green public transport can get you around. There may be a new exodus from the countryside though farmers will have to remain and what they will drive their tractors on remains an issue.
Click to expand...

It could also become more viable to live in the country. If you use less gasoline in farming it may become necessary to use more human power. If you look at census data for places like Nebraska and Kansas, you'll find that 100 years ago the population was 10 times what it is now in smaller towns and much less in the cities.

I suppose it depends on what type of tech we end up being able to support.
 
weltweit said:
we start to use electric or hybrid vehicles more, charged from the national grid.
Click to expand...


But where does the power come from to run the national grid?

Nuclear and renewables are nowhere near providing even 50% of present demand and won't be for the forseeable future.

Dunno if you've noticed the price of your energy bills lately ....
 
Yuwipi Woman said:
It could also become more viable to live in the country. If you use less gasoline in farming it may become necessary to use more human power. If you look at census data for places like Nebraska and Kansas, you'll find that 100 years ago the population was 10 times what it is now in smaller towns and much less in the cities.

I suppose it depends on what type of tech we end up being able to support.
Click to expand...
The most energy-efficient approach (particularly if you consider food without lots of oil inputs and things like nutrient recycling) is probably to spread back out into something like the old village > market town > small city structure, while still using better tech as far as energy considerations permit. I seriously doubt that rational measures to optimise energy use will take priority over economic and political considerations however.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

kebabking
  • Poll
US 2028 election?
2
Replies
54
Views
1K
tim
tim
hash tag
War is a crime?
2
Replies
53
Views
2K
A380
A380
Flavour
  • Poll
Who will win the 2024 US election?
50 51 52 53 54
Replies
2K
Views
47K
bcuster
bcuster
N
Can US Supreme Court be reformed next time Democrats are in power?
Replies
8
Views
297
Yossarian
Yossarian
Cloo
  • Poll
What was behind Trump shooting? make your bets now
2 3 4 5 6
Replies
164
Views
6K
Nylock
Nylock
Back
Top Bottom