Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")
- Thread starter Bernie_Gunther
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Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
No, it's not good news for people who like food on their shelves and jobs to go to.
max_freakout
Nothing matters
does anyody really like going to work?
if there is no self-control, then none of this matters
if there is self-control, then we are fucked
we *should* have 'done something' about this years ago
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well fela fan, one part of the rise in price is that the dollar is weaker, and oil is priced in dollars. This also means that in real terms, the price of oil has been increasing more for people in the USA, and countries whose currencies are pegged to the US dollar, more than it has in the EU and elsewhere.
Another reason is more destabalisation of the middle east through war and the threat of future conflict (ie Iran right now)
Profiteering and speculation are also present, but nothing can convince me that they are the underlying cause. The production numbers speak for themselves. Global production has stagnated. This does not necessarily mean that we have reached the final peak, its not impossible that production will increase in a year or 2 if new fields come online and others manage not to decline too badly.
The number one reason why I wont buy into the idea that this is just the work of oilmen, is that the entire global economy, and many pet projects of the elite, are going to come seriously unstuck. Many nations energy security & internal political stability will be disrupted. Oil is easier to exploit than humans or animals. So I struggle to believe that the oilmen's interests could be allowed to utterly override all other interests of all powers. Oilmen are powerful in the first place because the world & the system needs oil so bad.
Another reason is more destabalisation of the middle east through war and the threat of future conflict (ie Iran right now)
Profiteering and speculation are also present, but nothing can convince me that they are the underlying cause. The production numbers speak for themselves. Global production has stagnated. This does not necessarily mean that we have reached the final peak, its not impossible that production will increase in a year or 2 if new fields come online and others manage not to decline too badly.
The number one reason why I wont buy into the idea that this is just the work of oilmen, is that the entire global economy, and many pet projects of the elite, are going to come seriously unstuck. Many nations energy security & internal political stability will be disrupted. Oil is easier to exploit than humans or animals. So I struggle to believe that the oilmen's interests could be allowed to utterly override all other interests of all powers. Oilmen are powerful in the first place because the world & the system needs oil so bad.
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
yes
don't know what you self-control bit means. I hope you're not going to spoil this thread with 'philosophy'
max_freakout
Nothing matters
why are we still using oil, at an increasing rate, when everyone is now aware (and has been for some time) that this is a 'bad' thing for us to be doing, for many reasons (climate change, pollution, rise in oil prices, petroleum wars etc etc etc)??
is this the typical behaviour of a society in possession of rational self-control? It doesnt seem like it to me
nevertheless, the whole concept of 'modern society' with its 'government' is purely based on the assumption that there is rational self-control, and that everything we do, we do out of self-control
the heroin addict does not display self-control as he systematically destroys himself in order to maintain his supply of heroin for the coming day, and neither does modern society as it systematically destroys itself in order to maintain its supply of oil for the next 6 months
we arent in control of ourselves, but we seem to think that we are, even as we eat our own children
Not true. There's lots of easy and cheaply available oil and gas to found all over Africa. Sudan, for example, is reported to contain almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia. The Congo is also said to have lots of hydrocarbon potential. Like wise the Western half of Iraq, Northern Iran and the Stans. There's oil everywhere. We are not running out of it, we're running into it.
Then peak oil is plainly false. The current price of oil hasn't got anything to do with any supposed scarcity as promoted by the peak oil PR machine. Since the 1940's world production has outstripped world demand by a substantial margin. For every 1 ton consumed 3 tons have been found. This is why proven world reserves stand at an all time record high today of 45 years. Peter Odell, a leading authority on this subject, explained to the lady from the BBC that consumption worldwide grew by just 1% last year, which is below the long term average of 1.5% which in turn a lot less scarier than you make it sound.
Numerous trajectories are possible, but "down" is probably the least likely. It might have been different had the British electorate shown any sympathy for environmentalism's overtly dystopian outlook in the recent local, mayoral and by-elections. But unfortunately for you that didn't happen - not withstanding a prolonged propaganda onslaught by the BBC and other big media to make up for the complete absence of mass support on the ground. In fact, the opposite happened. More and more people are rejecting the neo-Armageddonist message and are now beginning to see the environmental movement for what it really is -- a conglomerate of middle and upper class reactionary bankrupts, funded by Trusts controlled by elites.
max_freakout
Nothing matters
yes exactly, and rational long-term planning is pretty much equivalent to self-control
it is something which we are totally unable to do, but we don't acknowledge this
elbows
Well-Known Member
We'll Id be in favour of a new thread in the sense that 'war' is no longer the dominant symptom, nor what puts oil in the news every day. Its all about price & protests right now.
As for the reason humans havent been planning for the longterm, I think its got something to do with the entire system being based on growth, and growth is over when we get real about resources. But that includes population growth, not a subject that humans have found it easy to have sensible debates about.
As for the reason humans havent been planning for the longterm, I think its got something to do with the entire system being based on growth, and growth is over when we get real about resources. But that includes population growth, not a subject that humans have found it easy to have sensible debates about.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well if the events that have happened in the years since this thread started have not caused bigfish to even slightly change opinion, I guess I dont hold out too much hope for the future. Even if global output starts to decline at quite a rate, there appear to be numerous scapegoats that will be blamed. I wont be able to definitively demonstrate that its not a conspiracy by the elites, until the resulting horror severely damages said elites.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
oil is rapidly on its way out, and people are too terrified to admit it
about bloody time i say
yeah great. Global economic slump. Mass unemployment and slashing of public spending in the developed world. Even greater poverty everywhere else. And thats the best case scenario.
The worst case scenario is the collapse of industrial society and millions, billions even, dieing of starvation, war and disease.
Grow up FFS.
Peter Odell puts the "element of speculation" in the current oil price at between 60% and 65% based on $100 a barrel. It's probably more than that now. Your claim that Western oil companies have no control over the game is patently absurd. The world price of oil is controlled by them and their banking accomplices in London and New York. See the op-ed by Engdahl on this posted above.
Not everyone accepts the conclusions of this BBC prog or the production estimates of Prof Odell. Firstly Jeremy Leggett:
Secondly petroleum geologist Euan Mearns:
In a recent post on this thread I explained that many of the potential N Sea oilfields identified by messrs Kemp and Odell had poor or negative net energy returns i.e. in many cases production would be uneconomic regardless of the oil price. What specific N Sea oilfields do you believe will be developed to cumulatively deliver the additional 'estimated 30 Gbbls' referred to?
Sorry but I can't buy that - NOC's are estimated to control some 88% of global reserves compared with IOC's 12%. Other estimates say 84/16 but trend is the same i.e. NOC's control 5 or 6 times reserves of (former!) 'big oil'.
The price of oil is no longer set by these companies, that system belonged to the era when production was restricted by quotas due to millions of barrels of spare capacity existing. Now prices are set by the markets, in London, New York etc by actions of buyers and sellers. In response to another comment on this thread ('how can such a small fall in output or small rise in demand make such a huge price difference?') - easy, commodity markets set prices 'at the margin'...and oil consumption is pretty inelastic, at least in the short term. We can see the contrast with (say) budget airline seats where a doubling of prices will likely lead to a halving of takeup. If we double the price of essentials such as food or oil consumption will change little as these items are essential to modern / any life respectively. On this basis just a 2 or 3% drop in supply can lead to a doubling of prices.
max_freakout
Nothing matters
when did you realise this?
did it have any effect on your electricity consumption when you realised this?
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
whats your point caller?
But the thing is, Peter Odell is an internationally renown 24 caret expert and has a lifetime of experience. You, on the other hand, demonstrate no expertise at all. For example, you avidly promote the nonsensical pseudoscientific idea that oil somehow derives from geologically squashed zooplankton which was allegedly laid down during the Jurassic and Triassic in one off events that have never been repeated. If oil really was made this way, then it ought to be a relatively simple exercise to create some in a laboratory out of similar organic material. So far, with the exception of methane which is generated both organically and inorganically, neither you nor anyone else has been able to do this. On the contrary, the only people to have synthesized petroleum experimentally in a laboratory all just happen to be proponents of the abiotic theory and they did it using inorganic materials such as calcite, iron and water.
max_freakout
Nothing matters
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Has the ever more plasuible peak oil doomsday scenario affected my electricity consumption?
No.
Should it? Am I supposed to freeze my bollocks off in a futile bid to reduce my own personal contribution to unsustainable energy consumption?
I think looking at overall consumption - from food to consumer goods to travel is more relevant.
Re-orgnasing society so its based on answering human needs, rather than serving the profit motive is about the only positiive way to reduce energy consumption.
Otherwise what will hapeen is those with wealth and power will seek to carry on their ever greater consumption habits to the detriment of everyone else.
I repeat my question posed in earlier post - in which specific oilfields in UK N Sea does Prof Odell's '30 Gbbls oil to be extracted over the next 40 years' reside? Also if he's that great an expert why don't BP or Shell hire him as they have had big problems re reserve replacement?
With regard to the rest of your post we'll simply agree to disagree. I don't accept the concept that abiotic oil will deliver the flowrates that industrial society will require in the future and you don't accept the view of traditional petroleum geologists such as Prof Emeritus Deffeyes as to how oil was formed.
What I hope we can agree on is that, even assuming Odell turns out to be correct i.e. 30 Gbbls is awaiting extraction and abiotic oil in UK N Sea stages an appearance the lead time for new oilfield projects in an offshore environment is 6 to 8 years. How will UK fill the 'energy gap' in the meantime and how will UK as a nation fund the huge trade deficit due to sharply rising energy imports at current world prices?
Btw my post you were quoting which commenced 'Sorry, but I can't buy that....' detailed the percentage of reserves held by IOC's vs NOC's and also explained how markets 'set the oil price at the margin'. Which leads me to ask - where have I referenced 'geologically squashed zooplankton which was allegedly laid down during the Jurassic and Triassic...' etc? I appreciate that we now have a very long thread but the text you quote does not pertain to my postings.
max_freakout
Nothing matters
that answers your question, because this ^ answer explains why i think it is 'about bloody time' that we stop using oil
you realise that your energy consumption amounts to eating your own children, and yet you carry on consuming regardless
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Yes I selfishly eat food and heat my home. Shoot me.
Whats driving energy consumption up to and beyond our capacity to produce it is not, primarily, individuals direct energy consumption - its an economic model based on promoting ever greater consumer consumption in order to maximise profits. Coutries like China and India are expanding their economies and their populations are consuming more.
But consumption in developing countries is about greater numbers of people having things like light bulbs, fridges and sanitation systems. Western consumption is about people having SUVs, second homes, 16 pairs of shoes and excessive amounts of food from every corner of the earth. It all needs energy - and it looks increasingly somehting has got to give.
Every calorie of food produced takes far more calories of energy to produce. Theres very little an individual can do about that. Its because of an agricultural model based on maximising short term yields.
You cant just blithely say 'its time we stopped using oil'. Without a viable alternative enrgy source, industrial society would grind to a catostrophic halt.
Thanks for the post elbows.
Yes, agreed if the elites were to come unstuck too. But we've seen these oil price spikes before, we've seen economic collapses in the western world before (recessions), but always things go back to the way they were before. All i've seen in my lifetime is a cycle of boom and bust. Humans gamble, and if the oilmen decided to gamble for a while and help themselves at the trough, then they win, so long as they get the timing right to return the world economy to better shape before everyone dies of hunger.
I'm not saying they do this, but i've never seen any strong argument as to why it's not what happens. And i think it's known how certain people in powerful positions are able to manipulate things on a global scale.
It seems thus far to my simple mind on the subject that it could be oilmen manipulating the markets, or it could be down to speculation in the markets based on the whole capitalist system. The former is human greed, the latter is human folly.
max_freakout
Nothing matters
this is totally inevitable, and i think it is about time
you wont be able to carry on blithely blaming 'economic models' when your family is starving and the world is falling apart in a few months time......
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
this is totally inevitable, and i think it is about time
you wont be able to carry on blithely blaming 'economic models' when your family is starving and the world is falling apart in a few months time......
You well stocked with tinned food and guns then?
Or you just gonner smoke a big fat one and serenely smile whilst watching it all fall apart?
OPEC Secretary General calls for measures to curb market speculation
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds...DST_0_ENERGY-SUMMIT-CALM-UPDATE-5-PIX-TV.html
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds...DST_0_ENERGY-SUMMIT-CALM-UPDATE-5-PIX-TV.html
max_freakout
Nothing matters
im not paranoid, it was you who said that billions of people might die
i very much look forward to the great 'falling apart' that is just aheads of us, it makes my spine tingle just thinking about it
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