Map of masses of on the run convicted paedo's

[Lemon Eddy]

If only this important, thought provoking article had come from the Sun, rather than the Mail. They'd have tried to mitigate the worry and anxiety such an infographic might cause the public, perhaps through a witty play upon words (or "pun") such as "PaedoFail"

 

[Firky]

Someone's been doing the maths, no idea if this right or not:

Get some perspective here............ missing pedophiles in the community as a percentage of the entire population 0.0002%, illegal immigrants in the country 5.71% totally unaccounted for!!! Which is the real problem. Number of convicted sex criminals in the UK represents 0.002% of the population. You have a 1:500,000 chance of meeting a sex offender or 1:5,000,000 if it is a missing one. So I am surprised by the hysterical responses here that you aren't all playing the lottery and believing you will be winning every time. Get a grip!
- morrishi, Basingstoke, United Kingdom, 25/2/2013 18:26

 

[mrs quoad]

*finger slip!

 

[smokedout]

Someone's been doing the maths, no idea if this right or not:

Get some perspective here............ missing pedophiles in the community as a percentage of the entire population 0.0002%, illegal immigrants in the country 5.71% totally unaccounted for!!! Which is the real problem. Number of convicted sex criminals in the UK represents 0.002% of the population. You have a 1:500,000 chance of meeting a sex offender or 1:5,000,000 if it is a missing one. So I am surprised by the hysterical responses here that you aren't all playing the lottery and believing you will be winning every time. Get a grip!
- morrishi, Basingstoke, United Kingdom, 25/2/2013 18:26

strange how some people seem to know the exact number of unaccounted for illegal immigrants, they should have just asked their names when they counted them

 

[Firky]

strange how some people seem to know the exact number of unaccounted for illegal immigrants, they should have just asked their names when they counted them

It would not be a proper DM quote if it did not include something to do with immigrants. If the map was in the Daily Express a person would need to include Princess Diana in their commentary.

 

[DotCommunist]

peeds on the run
peeeds on the run
Kenny G and sailor sam
were telling evryone
about the peeds on the run

 

[ymu]

Someone's been doing the maths, no idea if this right or not:

Get some perspective here............ missing pedophiles in the community as a percentage of the entire population 0.0002%, illegal immigrants in the country 5.71% totally unaccounted for!!! Which is the real problem. Number of convicted sex criminals in the UK represents 0.002% of the population. You have a 1:500,000 chance of meeting a sex offender or 1:5,000,000 if it is a missing one. So I am surprised by the hysterical responses here that you aren't all playing the lottery and believing you will be winning every time. Get a grip!
- morrishi, Basingstoke, United Kingdom, 25/2/2013 18:26

It's wrong.

If there's only a 1 in half a million chance of meeting a sex offender, it would be hard to explain how 20% of women are assaulted as adults and 20% as children, with 8% of men assaulted as children.

If the 1 in half a million chance were actually correct (which it could because they haven't specified if this is a lifetime risk or an annual risk or a daily risk), then their 1 in 5 million chance of meeting a missing sex offender would be expected to result in actual harm to 2% of adult women, 2% of girls and 0.8% of boys (if we assume those that go missing are no more dangerous than the others, which is unlikely). As implausibly high as their risks estimates are low.

As a percentage of all sex criminals, the proportion missing is tiny. But the number of sex criminals is fucking huge, their crimes often numerous, and the effects of their crimes often devastating. Not something to be trivialised by amateur statisticians.

As far as I'm concerned, being on the sex offenders' register should mean being tagged and for the most serious contact crimes, they should be tagged for life.

 

[Ranu]

Also if you stay indoors all day moaning on the internet about missing paedos and immigrants, your chance of meeting one is zero.

 

[AKA pseudonym]

There are a lot more than 137 paedophiles in this country, so the distribution of numbers on the map should be of no interest to anyone except the police and those criticising them.

i believe its 137 multiplied by 'more than 10'?

 

[mrs quoad]

As far as I'm concerned, being on the sex offenders' register should mean being tagged and for the most serious contact crimes, they should be tagged for life.

afaik, that wouldn't necessarily address the problem. The tags currently used (exclusively? Mostly?) in the UK aren't GPS locators. They're basically proximity monitors, that'll tell you if someone is within x feet of a landline-connected base station at their registered address. If they aren't within x feet at x time (usually a curfew), then the police (or G4S, more likely) know they're somewhere else (unless the equipment's malfunctioned). Where that 'somewhere else' is, they don't know. They just know that they aren't in the very small bit of the world that's being proximity monitored.

 

[ymu]

afaik, that wouldn't necessarily address the problem. The tags currently used (exclusively? Mostly?) in the UK aren't GPS locators. They're basically proximity monitors, that'll tell you if someone is within x feet of a landline-connected base station at their registered address. If they aren't within x feet at x time (usually a curfew), then the police (or G4S, more likely) know they're somewhere else (unless the equipment's malfunctioned). Where that 'somewhere else' is, they don't know. They just know that they aren't in the very small bit of the world that's being proximity monitored.

Then it should be GPS-enabled tagging.

 

[mrs quoad]

Then it should be GPS-enabled tagging.

Looks as if they might not be that far off being introduced.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepag...v-dangerous-criminals-tracked-from-space.html

(There's also a BBC link from earlier in 2012.)

I'd guess they're attended by some additional difficulties and costs - not least the need for an active battery, and the risk of alarms whenever someone entered a building / tunnel with no GPS reception?

What's the longest feasible battery life on an ankle-sized GPS receiver / transmitter?

 

[Fez909]

I don't mean to come over all conspiraloon here, but isn't there a real risk of escalation of powers here.

That article says it was used for Abu Q (terrorist) and there are plans to introduce it for paedophiles, and "other dangerous ex lags". There's even mention of using it on everyone given a community order.

How long before benefit claimants are required to wear one to prove they aren't in the pub or the offie?

How about football hooligans during matches? Protesters with previous arrests during marches? The potential for abuse and control is huge.

*Dons tin foil hat and flame shield*

 

[mrs quoad]

tbf, I suspect that the main obstacle to that kinda monitoring would be cost and hassle.

*If* a faraday cage / similar fucks up GPS reception, then could someone bork their tag by covering it in foil / some other temporary material? Without proof that it's been intentionally upfucked, you'd be looking at - potentially - a huge number of alerts for reasons of fucking around, as well as proper malfunctions / alerts. If tunnels fuck up GPS, you'd be looking at alerts left, right and center (unless people were specifically excluded from entering tunnels, or the existence of tunnels was coded into the alert software. What about tunnels near schools, or on school routes?)

On top of that, you'd have far, far heavier costs attached to monitoring. atm, you've essentially got one kind of alarm. It is 7pm. Frank is not within x metres of his assigned post. ALARM! -> G4S call the police, or probation, or whatever, and someone might (or might not) get onto it.

With GPS... on top of any costs attached to getting people out to regularly replace / charge GPS tags (could you really ask offenders to charge their own tags?! Again, how long is a realistic battery life for an ankle-sized device?), you've got 24 hour constant monitoring. Not only of curfews, but of danger zones and exclusion zones, as well as other outages / glitches. And tunnels. 24 hour constant monitoring of... how many people? What proportion of alarms, of what kind, and of what duration, do you respond to? What kind of staffing would e.g. G4S need in place to implement that kinda scheme, and what kinda policing decisions / responses would be considered appropriate? Bring it up at a Probation supervision? Or full, emergency police response? Every time you get that call wrong, you're exposed to public attention / scrutiny. So the likelihood is that people low down the food chain will tend to respond by up-tariffing or overestimating risk, leading to reasonably consistent over-responses. (At least, that's what's tended to happen in MAPPA, and in other bureaucratised 'risk monitoring' networks).

Long story short, it *might* just about be feasible / viable for a very small number of offenders who're perceived to be very high risk (or high visibility). But the - IMO unavoidable - costs attendant on anything approaching that kinda technology at the moment would be way, way beyond prohibitive.

To be monitored requires someone to do the monitoring.

Increase the number of people being monitored, and the number of potential places / situations / times at which alarms might be triggered, and you're beginning to get into territory that's even more of a ball-ache for the people organising the monitoring, than it is for those people being monitored.

 

[Blagsta]

Looks as if they might not be that far off being introduced.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepag...v-dangerous-criminals-tracked-from-space.html

(There's also a BBC link from earlier in 2012.)

I'd guess they're attended by some additional difficulties and costs - not least the need for an active battery, and the risk of alarms whenever someone entered a building / tunnel with no GPS reception?

What's the longest feasible battery life on an ankle-sized GPS receiver / transmitter?

Put a bit of foil over it, job done. Disappear.

 

[SpookyFrank]

What do the black bits on the map signify? I would think these are areas where all the convicted paedophiles are exactly where they should be, but colouring those regions necrosis-black suggests that these are actually places which have become so overrun with paedophiles that they're effectively lost to civilisation.

I suppose mentioning the counties with no absconding nonces (absconces?) would rather undermine their point though wouldn't it? Then they'd have to point out that plenty of areas with hundreds of paedophiles to keep track of have, err, done so successfully and with a minimum of fuss.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Also if you stay indoors all day moaning on the internet about missing paedos and immigrants, your chance of meeting one is zero.

Not true - it's a little-known fact that they can leach through the walls unless you have a properly paedaproofed lining between the exterior and interior brickwork.

If you are unsure about this you can check for obvious signs along your skirting board anywhere which might normally be shielded from view, such as discarded Werther's Originals wrappers, torn-out pages from the children's clothing section of a Burlington's catalogue, or home-printed 'LOST KITTEN' flyers.

 

[Clair De Lune]

Bloody paedo assylum seekers, claiming our children and raping our benefits.

 

[Fez909]

How does it work work Abu Q then?

 

[butchersapron]

Is this the thread where people too scared to take on sihhi on the serious thread can spout off?

 

[mrs quoad]

How does it work work Abu Q then?

A very good question. I'd guess they've at least acknowledged and sought to address the potential problems, given wiki also states that gps tags are in production (being shipped to Brazil?! May've misremembered).

They'd have to work in the footwell of cars, too, etc, etc.

btw, an addendum to Qatada:

In November the government was forced to release Abu Qatada from prison on restrictive bail conditions, which include him being forced to wear a GPS satellite tag. Around 60 officers from Scotland Yard, MI5 and a private security company reportedly now monitor his movements in a security operation that costs an estimated £100,000 a week.

It's probably fair to say that with that level of oversight, you could probably afford the extra degree of monitoring / caution entailed by even the most dysfunctional / problematic of GPS tags / systems.

 

[mrs quoad]

Bail conditions:

• Electronic tagging and reporting to a monitoring company
• Fixed address
• 22-hour curfew, with permission to leave home for a maximum of one hour twice a day
• Police and others permitted to enter and search his home
• No travel ticket or papers
• Ban on leaving a small area in his neighbourhood, set out on a map that he has been given
• Banned from attending a mosque
• Banned from leading prayers, other than those in his own family
• He must not publish any statement
• Nobody can enter home other than family, his lawyers and Home Office officials or children under 14
• Any other visitor must be vetted by the Home Office
• He cannot make any arrangements to meet anyone outside the home without permission
• If he meets an acquaintance by chance, he must make his excuses and leave
• No meeting with 27 named individuals, some of whom are in prison
• No meeting with anyone who is held on the new form of control orders known as TPims (Terrorism Prevention and Investigation Measures)
• No mobile phone
• No internet connection
• No computer kit that can be connected to the net
• Visitors may not use a mobile in his home
• He may only have one bank account
• He may not hold any bank or credit card not connected to that account
• He may not transfer money out of the UK
• He may not help others buy, sell or obtain computer equipment
• Any educational course or training must be approved by the home secretary
• Any job must be similarly approved

What's the bet that the 'small area in his neighbourhood' didn't involve too many tunnels?

 

[pissflaps]

THAY MUST CUT THER COKS OFF MADDY IN AR HARTZ 4 EVA!

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, it appears that it is.

 

[Lemon Eddy]

Yes, it appears that it is.

No. It's the thread where people take the piss out of a poor OP based around an alarmist Daily Mail story.

I've got bugger all problem with sihhi's position in the Bulger thread. That does not preclude me from finding talk of "masses of on the run convicted paedo's" to be scaremongering with no basis in fact.

 

[butchersapron]

No. It's the thread where people take the piss out of a poor OP based around an alarmist Daily Mail story.

I've got bugger all problem with sihhi's position in the Bulger thread. That does not preclude me from finding talk of "masses of on the run convicted paedo's" to be scaremongering with no basis in fact.

Crack on, meanwhile:

THAY MUST CUT THER COKS OFF MADDY IN AR HARTZ 4 EVA!

Bloody paedo assylum seekers, claiming our children and raping our benefits.

 

[Fez909]

Bail conditions:



What's the bet that the 'small area in his neighbourhood' didn't involve too many tunnels?

Jesus. Those are pretty restrictive conditions for someone who has not been convicted, nor charged, with a crime. Is he that dangerous?

 

[mrs quoad]

Jesus. Those are pretty restrictive conditions for someone who has not been convicted, nor charged, with a crime. Is he that dangerous?

The whole point of risk assessment and management is that people are not sentenced on the basis of the crimes they've committed; they're managed on the basis of the crimes they might commit. (And when someone's as visible as Qatada, risk assessment is hardly likely to be the actuarial / neutral process it's sometimes claimed to be.)

 

[kenny g]

It is interesting that so few people have come out with actual solutions.

The use of GPS tracking is very tempting. If they don't work in tunnels then it should be a condition of release that the paedo does not enter a tunnel, or for that matter a Faraday cage.

It would be interesting if playgrounds, schools and places young people gather had devices that caused paedo's tags to emit alert messages to control if they were in the vicinity. Paedo's would then be in the position of having to pro-actively second guess unsuitable places (as they probably do currently but for negative reasons) and avoid them . It would be an added nudge in behaviour modification.

 

[ymu]

I don't think they need to be monitored so closely that they can't enter a tunnel! Just a tag that makes it hard for them to disappear and easy to locate is fine.

The fact that it would also make it harder for them to reoffend is a bonus, but Circles type stuff is a much more sensible approach to rehabilitation.