Looming Le Pen - French Election 2022

[RileyOBlimey]

What’s the likelihood of a Le Pen victory?

How severe would the impact be if she does gain power?

 

[stavros]

I think it might be less than we in the UK might imagine, as any cabinet she'd form would be from a number of parties. Castex is not from Macron's LREM, and only around half his cabinet are.

 

[Pickman's model]

What’s the likelihood of a Le Pen victory?

How severe would the impact be if she does gain power?

What odds have you seen at the bookies?

 

[RileyOBlimey]

What odds have you seen at the bookies?

Macron is where people are putting their money. Will Le Pen use the darks arts as per Cambridge Analytica.

 

[Pickman's model]

Macron is where people are putting their money. Will Le Pen use the darks arts as per Cambridge Analytica.

Yeh. And the odds?

 

[RileyOBlimey]

Yeh. And the odds?

French Politics Next French President Betting Odds | Politics

French Politics - Next French President Betting Odds. Get the best available European Politics odds from all online bookmakers with Oddschecker, the home of betting value.

www.oddschecker.com

 

[Pog de Maistre]

I do not know the odds of a Le Pen Victory. What I do know is that great french political ritual where Le Pen edges closer to victory only for the heroic capitalist parties to band together to put a stop to it so they can all pat themselves on the back afterwards and congratulate themselves on defeating fascism once again will reoccur. Likely until the end of the current French republic since it is a great source of legitimacy for the capitalist ideologues of perhaps one of the most systemically discredited and loathed bourgeois political elites in continental Europe.

 

[krtek a houby]

What’s the likelihood of a Le Pen victory?

How severe would the impact be if she does gain power?

Johnson would probably invite her to No.10 for a cup of tea

 

[Raheem]

The chances of a Le Pen victory is worryingly non-negligible, but the system works against her. It's a two-round vote, and in the second round, everyone who's not a moron, plus a majority of those who are, vote against her however awful the alternative is.

In theory...

 

[RileyOBlimey]

Johnson would probably invite her to No.10 for a cup of tea

…and a goosing

 

[krtek a houby]

…and a goosing

Goose stepping, more likely

 

[Pickman's model]

…and a goosing

Goose stepping, more likely

Johnson would invite her in and after a plate of toast and pate de foie gras they'd goose step round the room till he got excited and goosed her. I'll draw a veil over subsequent events

 

[krtek a houby]

Johnson would invite her in and after a plate of toast and pate de foie gras they'd goose step round the room till he got excited and goosed her. I'll draw a veil over subsequent events

Rather draw a shroud

 

[Pickman's model]

Rather draw a shroud

I can draw veils but I'm no good at drawing shrouds

 

[krtek a houby]

I can draw veils but I'm no good at drawing shrouds

That's all veily good, but it means Le Pen is mightier than the shroud

 

[Pickman's model]

That's all veily good, but it means Le Pen is mightier than the shroud

I read that as le penis mightier than the shroud

 

[krtek a houby]

I read that as le penis mightier than the shroud

There is a Johnson involved, so fair enough

 

[stavros]

Johnson would probably invite her to No.10 for a cup of tea

And then, nine months later...

 

[josef1878 2.0]

Johnson would invite her in and after a plate of toast and pate de foie gras they'd goose step round the room till he got excited and goosed her. I'll draw a veil over subsequent events

He'll get his well worn begging bowl out and try to get some other cunt to pay for it.

 

[tim]

I do not know the odds of a Le Pen Victory. What I do know is that great french political ritual where Le Pen edges closer to victory only for the heroic capitalist parties to band together to put a stop to it so they can all pat themselves on the back afterwards and congratulate themselves on defeating fascism once again will reoccur. Likely until the end of the current French republic since it is a great source of legitimacy for the capitalist ideologues of perhaps one of the most systemically discredited and loathed bourgeois political elites in continental Europe.

It's not always the same Le Pen, it used to be her dad. An added Fasc-frisson comes from the fact that not only is the Nazi Marine Le Pen standing but so might her Nazier-than-tu neice Marine Marechal Le Pen.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

It's not always the same Le Pen, it used to be her dad. An added Fasc-frisson comes from the fact that not only is the Nazi Marine Le Pen standing but so might her Nazier-than-tu neice Marine Marechal Le Pen.

Some sort of bunker may be in order.

 

[stavros]

They start early in France, like the US. Macron's currently doing a tour of the country to "test the pulse" of the people.

ETA: Don't be fooled by the hyperlink logo above; it's Le Monde rather than the Daily Mail.

 

[redsquirrel]

French regional elections are being held on 20th & 27th June. Not a great deal of polling but RN and LR seem to be best placed.

 

[tim]

French regional elections are being held on 20th & 27th June. Not a great deal of polling but RN and LR seem to be best placed.

French political parties change their names so often that using acronyms like this is pointless. The RN is the former National Front led by moderate Nazi Marine Le Pen; the LR is the Right-wing Gaullist party that gave France: Charles de Gaulle (obviously) Georges Scoubidou Chirac and Sarkozy it was previously initialled the UMP and before that the RPR a little bit earlier the UDR and back in the General's day the UNP.

 

[ska invita]

Zemmour splitting Le Pens vote

Eric Zemmour: Far-right journalist cast as Macron election rival

Eric Zemmour - tipped to run for the French presidency - is rebranding far-right nationalism.

www.bbc.co.uk

(as of 13th Oct 21)

 

[stavros]

Zemmour splitting Le Pens vote

Eric Zemmour: Far-right journalist cast as Macron election rival

Eric Zemmour - tipped to run for the French presidency - is rebranding far-right nationalism.

www.bbc.co.uk

(as of 13th Oct 21)
View attachment 293362

Thanks for bumping this, as it avoided me errantly starting a new one.

The >2 candidate analysis doesn't tell us too much, as there will be a run-off between the top two candidates. Macron may well win the first round, but I doubt any other individual will get enough to bump Zemmour AND Le Pen to below second place.

On the other hand, I saw a discussion on France24 the other day, where they were looking at polling at similar points in previous electoral cycles. If I remember correctly they showed that nine months out from the elections they won Chirac, Hollande and Macron were all in third or lower. The greatest danger might be that supporters of Mélenchon, Jadot and Hidalgo don't vote in the final round, when I'm sure they'd prefer Macron to either of his two possible rivals.

 

[yield]

The Zemmour Effect
Adam Shatz. LRB blog. 11 November 2021

As Le Pen is learning, a lot of French people like what they’re hearing from Zemmour: they don’t want a ‘de-diabolised’ Rassemblement Nationale. They want their racism and rage served up straight, just as many Republican voters in the States turned out to prefer Trump’s explicit white nationalism to the dog-whistling versions the Republican Party had been peddling for decades. (Zemmour is currently polling at 17 per cent, Le Pen at 16 per cent. Their combined support exceeds President Macron’s 24 per cent.)

...

So far, Zemmour’s defence of Vichy does not appear to have dampened the enthusiasm of his supporters. In recent years, the French press has depicted antisemitism as a thing of the past – except among citizens of Muslim origin, among whom it was said to be rife. Writers such as Finkielkraut and Pierre André Taguieff (whom Zemmour has cited admiringly) have contributed to this perception. But, as Reza Zia-Ebrahimi argues in his new book Antisemitisme et Islamophobie: une histoire croisée, ‘you can see today that the strategies for promoting Islamophobia put in place by the ultra-Zionist movement entail, as a ricochet effect, a legitimation of antisemitism.’

That the legitimation of antisemitism should come from a man whose Algerian-Jewish father was stripped of his citizenship in 1940 by the Vichy government, which his son now exalts, is a plot twist that no novelist could have invented. For Muslims and Jews in France who have increasingly come to view one another with suspicion and hostility, it should be a wake-up call.

 

[stavros]

From a first round poll a couple of weeks ago:



Zemmour hasn't even declared yet. It looks, at the moment, like him or Le Pen against Macron in the run-off.

 

[redsquirrel]

For whatever difference it will make (none) Valérie Pécresse has been selected the as presidential candidate for Les Républicains

‘The right is back’: Gaullists pick female candidate Valérie Pécresse to take on Macron

Former minister is surprise winner of Les Républicains’ nomination, beating high-profile names such as Michel Barnier

www.theguardian.com

 

[stavros]

For whatever difference it will make (none) Valérie Pécresse has been selected the as presidential candidate for Les Républicains

‘The right is back’: Gaullists pick female candidate Valérie Pécresse to take on Macron

Former minister is surprise winner of Les Républicains’ nomination, beating high-profile names such as Michel Barnier

www.theguardian.com

If current polls are anything to go by she won't make it to the run-off.

However Zemmour has now finally declared, so expect him to up the ante in the immigration and Islamophobia rhetoric. Le Pen looks marginally saner, although you'd hope enough Français would pick Macron over whichever of the two he faces (most likely scenario).