Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[Lock&Light]

.............They have shown no interest in democracy before, why should we assume they have converted to democratic values now?

I wouldn't assume that, and I don't expect to see Lybia transformed into a model democratic state. But any new dictatorship will have to be severe indeed to be worse than Gaddafi's version.

 

[phildwyer]

Any new government is bound to be pro-NATO, for a while at least, but why does it have to be a "dictatorship"?

Because the Lıbyan people would not vote for a pro-NATO party, havıng grown accustomed to ındependence.

 

[elbows]

Several reasons. Because it won't be the result of the popular will of the Libyan people who are clearly divided by this war. It will be a regional government installed by NATO bombing over a conquered Capital. There is zero evidence that Tripoli is anything but loyal to the present regime. What do you think the reaction of those who are pro regime will be to the installation of a NATO sponsored regime? Do you think they will welcome the opposition with open arms? They won't, they will be treated as hated conquerers and traitors and there will be an insurgency. Likewise how do you think the new regime will treat Gaddafi loyalists? They will be ruthlessly repressed. This is a divided population, despite the claims of Western propaganda and the installation of a regime that does not enjoy legitimacy in the eyes of large sections of the population can only be maintained by force.

Furthermore, it is reasonable to judge the behaviour of any future government on their behaviour during war and the opposition have shown a great deal of brutality including racism and pogroms against those who have fallen under its control. Finally the opposition is led by many who were, until recently, loyal members of Gaddafi's circle. They have shown no interest in democracy before, why should we assume they have converted to democratic values now?

All of that seems quite possible, but I think its wrong to make sure-sounding claims about insurgency until it becomes clear which way various tribes will go in a post-Gaddafi environment.

Is it actually true that the opposition is led by many who were on Gaddafi's side till recently? I've been slack at finding out about every member of their 'cabinet', but with Younis dead Im really not sure how many recent regime chaps are involved at the higher levels?

 

[dylans]

I wouldn't assume that, and I don't expect to see Lybia transformed into a model democratic state. But any new dictatorship will have to be severe indeed to be worse than Gaddafi's version.

That's what people said about Iraq

 

[Lock&Light]

That's what people said about Iraq

Horrible as the aftermath of the removal of Saddam was, it was less terrible than what had come before, IMO.

 

[dylans]

Horrible as the aftermath of the removal of Saddam was, it was less terrible than what had come before, IMO.

No it isn't The Al Malaki regime is a huge violator of human rights. He runs government sponsored death squads, people disappear, torture is rife,demonstrations are brutally repressed, often with live fire. There is no free press. Journalists have been kidnapped and tortured. Opposition is being stamped out and opposition leaders arrested and killed. Strikes are crushed. In addition there is the ongoing cost of the invasion. There are up to a million dead. Over a million and a half people remain internally and externally displaced. Child mortality is massive, murder is massive. 3 million women are widowed. Tens of thousands have been reduced to prostitution. Cancer rates in Fallujah exceed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Kidnapping and crime is endemic. There is little medical care, clean water or electricity. A once wealthy country has been utterly destroyed and there is no democracy in any meaningful sense of the word. I make no prediction as to whether a post Gaddafi Libya will be such a massive disaster but I think we are entitled to be cynical about claims that democracy will emerge. It won't. Libya will exchange one strongman for another and in the process lose their independance

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/03/201132173052269144.html

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Reports are that there is heavy fighting in Zawiya. Gadaffi was never going just role over and give up that crucial city.

The fact that the majority of the population are anti-Gadaffi should weigh the battle in the rebels favour - presuming that their stretched supply routes allow them to bring in the necessary amount of arms and ammunition.

Still, the front line is now only 30 minutes drive away from Tripoli so it looks like the war is now in the final phase

 

[Deareg]

No it isn't The Al Malaki regime is a huge violator of human rights. He runs government sponsored death squads, people disappear, torture is rife,demonstrations are brutally repressed, there is no free press. Opposition is being stamped out and opposition leaders arrested and killed. Strikes are crushed. In addition there is the ongoing cost of the invasion. There are up to a million dead. Over a million and a half people remain internally and externally displaced. Child mortality is massive, murder is massive, Kidnapping and crime is endemic. There is little medical care, clean water or electricity. A once wealthy country has been utterly destroyed and there is no democracy in any meaningful sense of the word. I make no prediction as to whether a post Gaddafi Libya will be such a massive disaster but I think we are entitled to be cynical about claims that democracy will emerge. It won't

Yeah but Sadam has gone and L&L didn't like him so it is still a much better place now.

 

[Lock&Light]

Yeah but Sadam has gone and L&L didn't like him so it is still a much better place now.

I'd never use the expression "much better".

 

[dylans]

Yeah but Sadam has gone and L&L didn't like him so it is still a much better place now.

Nobody liked him. I don't like Gaddafi either. But when the standard of good governance is reduced to the level of debating who tortured and murdered the most people I think it is time we reassessed our standards

 

[dylans]

I'd never use the expression "much better".

You don't need to. Now its worse. Iraq under Saddam was a brutal dictatorship with the best health care and living standards in the middle east. Now we have an increasingly brutal dictatorship presiding over an utterly destroyed and impoverished nation.

 

[Lock&Light]

That's true, but a major destabliser of the Middle East has been removed. The benefits of Saddam's removal are not limited to the Iraqi people.

 

[dylans]

That's true, but a major destabliser of the Middle East has been removed. The benefits of Saddam's removal are not limited to the Iraqi people.

Benefits for whom? Brutal Monarchist dictatorships like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia? Iraq after Kuwait was in no position to destablise anything. It was disarmed and crippled by sanctions that killed a million children. That's an utterly disingenuous excuse for inflicting the sort of massive. destruction and suffering that the invasion caused to the people of Iraq.

But I am curious. If my worst predictions prove correct and a post Gaddafi regime turns into either a civil war or another vicious dictatorship albeit one supported by the West, are you going to argue that the lingering suffering of Libya is "worth it because the benefits of Gaddafi's removal are not limited to the Libyan people"?

 

[Lock&Light]

It is indeed a great pity that political developments always result in less than perfect conditions. If those developments are progressive or not will only be known when history comes to be written.

 

[dylans]

It is indeed a great pity that political developments always result in less than perfect conditions. If those developments are progressive or not will only be known when history comes to be written.

Well there is "less than perfect" and then there is utterly disastrous. Iraq, post Saddam, wasn't less than perfect, it was a catastrophe.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

The latest news from the front:

Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr, reporting from Az-Zawiyah, says that the rebels have just managed to take control of a key highway that links Tripoli to Tunisia, though central parts of the city remain contested. The rebels are leading a march through a neighbourhood near the highway, chanting slogans against Gaddafi

What happens now is 1. Fierce fighting in Tripoli because the Gadaffi loyalists now don't have an escape route. 2. Realising that they are finished some, most or all the military command negioate a surrender.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

It is looking like Zawiyah is in rebel hands so for once perhaps, rebel claims may not turn out to be a total lie. Whether this is "endgame" or not depends on whether this offensive is sustainable.

Extensively confirmed by now.

Just saw pictures of two South African jumbo jets landing at Tripoli airport. These would be high up people on their way out.

It's nearly over. They've got nothing left.

As for fighting in Tripoli, I have seen no evidence of this or any evidence that Tripoli is anything but loyal to the regime.

You don't have much to go on, to be fair. As a matter of fact there has been fighting in Tripoli for months, with security unable to control pockets of the city. Yes, there are still a few of his supporters in Tripoli. These brainwashed goons who all but worship Gaddafi (or else are mere beneficiaries of his) are going to soon wake up very shocked, if it turns out their fuhrer has left them behind to suffer (which they will).

Frankly, the pro NATO forces have been so unreliable and dishonest throughout this war that it is difficult to believe a word they say. Ibn, before you begin celebrating perhaps you should consider the kind of regime that will replace Gaddafi, Is a pro NATO dictatorship really what you would call freedom?

I'll celebrate that Gaddafi has fallen. We have a right to do that.

But I didn't support NATO to begin with, partly for the possibility, among others, of a government run by western dictat. However, there are more reasons to be hopeful than NATO having acted benignly in their support of the revolutionary forces (simply because it is a pivotal move apropos their regional game-plan and little else besides). In Libya has developed a democratic culture. People feel like they can speak. They can say whatever they want. There are already 100 independent newspapers. Culture has flourished - music, poetry and painting. People are very assertive and strongly opinionated about what they want. As I have suggested, whatever setup is in place when NATO leave, the real decisive struggles will begin after fighting is over.

 

[dylans]

I'll celebrate that Gaddafi has fallen. We have a right to do that.

As you know, I have no love for Gaddafi, however I can't help recalling that people celebrated the fall of Saddam too and tragically that celebration merely preceded the emergence of something much worse, a pro western dictatorship presiding over the destruction and impoverishment of their country. I think you may be right that this is looking like the endgame and I truly hope the path Libya is on doesn't mirror that of Iraq

 

[newharper]

Horrible as the aftermath of the removal of Saddam was, it was less terrible than what had come before, IMO.

That is unprovable in any language.
In the meantime hundreds of thousands of innocents have been slaughtered by bringers of democracy.

Your claim

major destabiliser of the Middle East has been removed

shows only the poverty of your grasp.

 

[elbows]

Gaddafi's mates may well have started running away again:

In another blow to the regime's morale, the interior minister and a longstanding Gaddafi security aide, Nasser al-Mabrouk Abdullah, arrived in Cairo via Tunisia in a private plane with nine family members. The minister reportedly told officials he was on holiday, and the Egyptian government said the minister had entered on a tourist visa. According to the Associated Press, there were no Libyan diplomats at the airport to greet Abdullah and the embassy in Cairo had not been informed of his visit.

And at least one sign that Iraq mistakes are remembered, and they are keen to avoid at least certain aspects of that chaos:

A NTC statement issued on Monday called on people in Gaddafi-controlled area to organise themselves into "local committees to maintain security on the eve of the regime's downfall, and to raise awareness about the need for safeguarding public property, including universities, schools, hospitals, petrol stations, facilities and buildings, as they are the people's property, built with our own effort, sweat, money and sacrifice."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/15/muammar-gaddafi-losing-grasp-libya

 

[elbows]

I suppose we should start looking at the history of more individuals within the rebel leadership? Not that I've heard what happened after the cabinet was sacked recently.

Regardless, I'll start with the bloke who has been the information minister. Here is how he was described back in 2008 when he was scheduled to speak at a media forum:

http://www.arabmediaforum.ae/en/speakers/2008/speaker/mahmoud-shamam.aspx

Mahmoud Shamam is the Managing Editor of Foreign Policy magazine. His previous positions include Managing Editor of Newsweek Arabic, Office Director of Sout newspaper (Kuwait), Manager of Al Watan in Washington DC and the CEO of Hot Source for Media. He is a member of the governing body of Al Jazeerah network and a consulting member for Middle East at the Carnegie Foundation for Peace.

 

[Lock&Light]

Your claim

shows only the poverty of your grasp.

No.

It does show an alternative point of view.

Ever heard of one of them?

 

[elbows]

Telegraph claims Gaddafi fired a Scud at rebel territory recently:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...braces-itself-for-final-violent-showdown.html

 

[newharper]

No.

It does show an alternative point of view.

Ever heard of one of them?

Only half a dozen times a day.
Obviously I must be very hesitant in putting words into your mouth but if you are suggesting that in Realpolitik British interests have been advanced then yes, I think you are wrong.
Disastrously wrong.

 

[Lock&Light]

Obviously I must be very hesitant in putting words into your mouth but if you are suggesting that in Realpolitik British interests have been advanced then yes, I think you are wrong.
Disastrously wrong.

That's not what I'm suggesting. I'm not very concerned about Britain's realpolitic interests in isolation.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

As you know, I have no love for Gaddafi, however I can't help recalling that people celebrated the fall of Saddam too and tragically that celebration merely preceded the emergence of something much worse, a pro western dictatorship presiding over the destruction and impoverishment of their country. I think you may be right that this is looking like the endgame and I truly hope the path Libya is on doesn't mirror that of Iraq

Fortunately this event isn't nearly the same, though one can't help being acutely aware that Libyans might have to contend w/a subordinate dictatorship/authoritarian government. It is all too possible, in the short-medium term.

One aspect about the post-war plans is how the same security setup is going to adapt itself to a very different type of state and function differently. Ironically, there may even be revolutionary committees of the type Gaddafi set up (often referred to as 'death committees') to root out remnants of the regime. Talk of these will be limited to bringing criminals to justice but the power of those kinds of organisation need to be kept in check.

 

[elbows]

The latest on the fighting:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14561904

Its the usual stuff, but one sentence caught my eye:

A government intelligence official captured by the rebels estimates that 70% of the capital's population back Col Gaddafi, adds our correspondent.

 

[SpineyNorman]

That's not what I'm suggesting. I'm not very concerned about Britain's realpolitic interests in isolation.

OK. Let me put it like this - for whom, in your opinion, has the installation of the pro-US puppet regime in Iraq improved things and in what way? A regime that was installed using bullets, bombs and rockets, killing untold numbers of innocents.

Be specific.

 

[TomUS]

Iraq was a disaster in every way for everyone but he arms merchants & security cos. I just don't see this like Iraq. I see it as part of the Arab spring. Gaddafi must die for this to be done with. Who knows what will follow? Call it neolibralism or whatever you want. But the new boss just may be better than the old boss.

 

[dylans]

Iraq was a disaster in every way for everyone but he arms merchants & security cos. I just don't see this like Iraq. I see it as part of the Arab spring. Gaddafi must die for this to be done with. Who knows what will follow? Call it neolibralism or whatever you want. But the new boss just may be better than the old boss.

There is another analogy and one that is perhaps a more accurate comparison than Iraq. We have a deeply divided opposition with little national legitimacy and strong Islamist and tribal elements being shepherded to power by NATO bombs. This looks likely to result in the installation of a weak, divided and undemocratic regime which will cling to power with Western military support and become increasingly under siege by Islamists.What does this remind you of?

The comparison may not be Iraq, it may be Afghanistan

(as an aside, has anyone noticed that Saif Gaddafi has grown a beard, now wears traditional Wahabi clothing and carries prayer beads?) He's attempting to cut a deal with Islamists against the NATO supported TNC)

“The liberals will escape or be killed,” the son, Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, vowed in an hourlong interview that stretched past midnight. “We will do it together,” he added, wearing a newly grown beard and fingering Islamic prayer beads as he reclined on a love seat in a spare office tucked in a nearly deserted downtown hotel. “Libya will look like Saudi Arabia, like Iran. So what?”

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/04/world/africa/04seif.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&ref=world