Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[elbows]

It remains extremely hard to judge, but there are some tentative signs that all sides may be moving towards some kind of deal. The latest sign being a shift in the UK stance, towards letting Gaddafi remain in Libya as long as he is out of power.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14282757

For a long time I have been asking what conditions are like in Tripoli, with few answers. With the following report I finally get a little bit of info about the state of things, not enough to be too certain but better than nothing:

http://reliefweb.int/node/435965

“Although the mission observed aspects of normalcy in Tripoli, members identified pockets of vulnerability where people need urgent humanitarian assistance,” underlined Humanitarian Coordinator a.i., Laurence Hart.

Medical priorities include treating people with injuries due to the ongoing conflict. The health sector is already under strain because of the conflict and the departure of thousands of foreign health workers since the beginning of the crisis. Medical supplies, including vaccines, are rapidly running low. The mission heard reports of the heavy psychosocial impact of the conflict, mainly among children and women.

Although basic food commodities can be found in the markets, prices are increasing. There are also concerns over the unsustainable food supply chain for the public distribution systems, especially as Ramadan approaches and the conflict persists.

The fuel shortage is a significant problem: the UN team observed long queues at gas stations, some of which had closed down. A fuel consumption quota system is now in place since Libyan oil experts warned that fuel stocks could run out in two weeks, should the shortage continue. Public transport costs have tripled, making access to services, including hospitals, challenging.

Reduced availability of cash is a serious concern, as many Libyans withdrew their savings at the beginning of the crisis. Banks are restricting cash withdrawals for individual account holders. The mission team reported that water is still available, but people are experiencing significant electricity cuts.

Saif claimed that the regime could sit this out, and wait for a long time since its their country so they aren't going to leave and 'go home' like NATO, but in reality the clock ticks for them too.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

 

[ernestolynch]

You still touting the Qatari state broadcast channel?

Will they report on their human rights abuses?

Fucking NATO chimp.

 

[Streathamite]

I don't think anyone has a plan.Things happened to quickly and the west reacted.Think seeing Gaddafi dead and his regime smashed will be good enough for the west tbh.

For the govts/ruling class of the west, sure. For the rest of us, it prolly won't make a blind bit of difference.

 

[Casually Red]

the funs starting now . One of the top rebel generals has been arrested by his own side and put in military jail . Accused of the rather unlikely sounding charge of selling guns to the Ghadaffi side . No coincidence it comes just as the Libyan assets are being stolen and handed over to the puppets to divvy up between them , Im sure . There are reports of the generals followers abandoning the front lines to descend on the prison demanding his release . This could get ugly , with a bit of luck .

 

[elbows]

I think that story has evolved since you posted....

Younes is dead! This version of the story is flakey in places, I need to eat some food before trying to learn more.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14336122

The military commander of the Libyan rebels fighting to topple Col Muammar Gaddafi has been killed, the rebel National Transitional Council says.

NTC head Mustafa Abdul-Jalil said Gen Abdel Fattah Younes was killed by pro-Gaddafi assailants, and the head of the group responsible had been arrested.

He said Gen Younes was summoned for questioning about military operations, but never made it to the meeting.

Reports said Gen Younes was suspected of ties to pro-Gaddafi forces.

Gen Younes is a former Libyan interior minister who defected to the rebel side in February.

Two aides to Gen Younes, Col Muhammad Khamis and Nasir al-Madhkur, were also killed in the attack, Mr Jalil said.

Some unconfirmed reports said Gen Younes and two aides had been arrested earlier on Thursday near Libya's eastern front.

 

[elbows]

AlJazeera has quite a lot of detail about his death in this piece, which does not seem to afraid to show the rebels warts, even mentioning how close Younes rival Khalifa Hifter lived to CIA headquarters when he was still in exile.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/07/2011728215485843.html

 

[elbows]

And the Guardians version:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/29/abdul-fatah-younis-killed-libya

Jalil said two senior rebel officers were killed alongside Younis, and demanded that what he called pro-Gaddafi elements he said were operating in Benghazi surrender or join the rebel forces.

The shock announcement came after a day of heated speculation that Younis had been arrested on the orders of Jalil. Younis was Gaddafi's former interior minister until he dramatically changed sides to join the revolution in February.

The rumours were still swirling late last night, with armed men declaring their support for Younis appearing on the streets of Benghazi, claiming they would use force to free him from NTC custody.

Soldiers loyal to Jalil from the 17 Brigade, Benghazi's elite unit, had surrounded Younis's house in the late afternoon.

Then in the evening, Jalil said at the press conference that "with regret" he had to announce the death of general Younis. Jalil called him "one of the heroes of the 17th of February revolution".

Minutes later, gunfire broke out in the street outside the Benghazi hotel where the announcement was made, with machine gun bullets smashing windows.

The press conference, which ended abruptly with the NTC president refusing to take questions, failed to explain how the general could have been ambushed in a highly guarded convoy.

Also includes this corker:

The assassination will cause embarrassment and concern for the Foreign Office in the UK, as it comes just a day after the foreign secretary, William Hague, said that Britain would recognise the NTC as the legitimate government of Libya and expelling Gaddafi's diplomats.

London had hoped that after months of work, the NTC was now fit to govern. Unless Jalil can provide a full and public account of the assassination and the circumstances around it, that opinion may need to be revised.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

well that was clearly a case of being shot by his own side

there's being open accusations of spies informing Gadaffi's army of rebel troop movements for ages, and scenario of him being the spy is a possibility

their best rid of him he must have been the world's most useless military commander

 

[Divisive Cotton]

just checked my twitter account and just read this tweet:

#Gadafi State TV did announce a couple of days ago that they would have news about Abdel Fatah Younis soon. #Libya #Feb17

 

[TomUS]

Their best rid of him he must have been the world's most useless military commander

Yea, they've had little or horrible military leadership. And at this point military success against Gaddafi's forces is what's needed most. NATO was supposedly dropping in officers/advisers. I don't see much success if it happened.

 

[dylans]

Yea, they've had little or horrible military leadership. And at this point military success against Gaddafi's forces is what's needed most. NATO was supposedly dropping in officers/advisers. I don't see much success if it happened.

Gaddafi actually controls more ground now than at the beginning of the uprising in February

Despite more than four months of sustained air strikes by Nato, the rebels have failed to secure any military advantage. Colonel Gaddafi has survived what observers perceive as attempts to eliminate him and, despite the defection of a number of senior commanders, there is no sign that he will be dethroned in a palace coup.
"The regime controls around 20 per cent more territory than it did in the immediate aftermath of the uprising on 17 February."

When are supporters of NATO going to admit what is increasingly obvious, that the narrative of an embattled regime facing a popular nationwide uprising and hanging on through the use of mercenaries is simply untrue and the regime enjoys considerable popular support? In fact the evidence suggests (as some of us warned at the time) that the involvement of NATO has actually driven many back to support for the regime.

If the Gaddafi regime is now more in control of Libya than before, then this completely undermines the simplistic view put about by the supporters of war – and unfortunately by some elements of the resistance – that the situation was simply one of a hated tyrant hanging on through mercenary violence. Of course, he uses whatever resources he has at his disposal, but a) it would seem that the involvement of imperialism has driven some Libyans back into the Gaddafi camp, as it's unlikely he would maintain control without some degree of support, and b) we know that rebellious sectors started to go back to Gaddafi within mere weeks of the revolt taking off, meaning in part that his resources of legitimising his regime were not exhausted even before the US-led intervention. Despite the defections, he has consolidated his regime in a way that would have seemed improbably in the early weeks of revolt.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jul/29/gaddafi-libya-nato

 

[Divisive Cotton]

interesting tweet here from a western journalist based in Libya:

Jonny_Hallam
How did Pro-Gs on Twitter from Tripoli know what had happened to #Younes 2 hours before it was announced in #Benghazi? #Libya

 

[elbows]

Not too much new info on the death of Younis story, apart from it seeming that relatives received his shot & burnt body and buried him today.

But lately the suggestion that a rebel faction lay behind it has gained a little bit more detail:

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2011/07/29/general-ml-libya_8591617.html

BENGHAZI, Libya -- A special forces member under the command of the Libyan rebels' slain military chief has accused a rebel faction in the killing.

Mohammed Agoury told The Associated Press on Friday that he was present when a group of rebels from a faction known as the February 17 Martyrs' Brigade came to Abdel-Fattah Younis' operations room and took him away with them for interrogation.

Agoury accused the group of killing Younis and dumping his body outside Benghazi.

 

[Casually Red]

the prime suspects are the Al qaeda inspired and linked LIFG , the mainstay of the feb 17th group . Now theres reports of demands at Younes military funeral for the green flag to be hoisted again and for Ghadaffi to come back and restore order .

 

[dylans]

the prime suspects are the Al qaeda inspired and linked LIFG , the mainstay of the feb 17th group . Now theres reports of demands at Younes military funeral for the green flag to be hoisted again and for Ghadaffi to come back and restore order .

Demands raised by Younis' son. Hardly surprising given that daddy was one Gaddafi's right hand men for years and was probably killed for being an agent of the regime.

"At the graveside, Younis' son, Ashraf, broke down, crying and screaming as they lowered the body into the ground and — in a startling and risky display in a city that was the first to shed Gadhafi's rule nearly six months ago — pleaded hysterically for the
return of the Libyan leader to bring stability.

"We want Moammar to come back! We want the green flag back!" he shouted at the crowd, referring to Gadhafi's national banner

http://www.talktalk.co.uk/news/article/split-fears-as-libya-rebel-buried/15050/

 

[elbows]

Part of John Simpsons article about the death of Younis included an interesting version of events:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14349736

His close friend Col Muammar Gaddafi sent him to his home town, Benghazi, with instructions to arrange a Tiananmen Square-style massacre of the demonstrators who were planning to demand an end to Col Gaddafi's rule.

But the demonstrators struck first and captured him. Gen Younes immediately announced that his plan all along had been to come to Benghazi in order to join the rebels.

The rebel leaders guessed that this was a fiction, but they could see the advantages in going along with it.

When I went to interview Gen Younes in Benghazi the next day, he was extremely nervous.

He had managed to hang on to his personal bodyguards and they were nervous too.

 

[elbows]

More chin scratching material:

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/07/20117318226759888.html

Libya's opposition forces have launched an attack against what they say was a pro-Gaddafi armed group operating under the opposition's banner in the country's east.

The opposition's forces had overrun the base of the al-Nidaa Brigade, the pro-government faction, after five hours of fighting near the opposition stronghold Benghazi, according to spokesman Mahmoud Shamam.

He said that four peopled were killed and six others wounded in the clash, which involved the use of heavy weapons.

Al Jazeera's Tony Birtley, reporting from Benghazi, said the battle was launched to subdue elements of Muammar Gaddafi's forces that had been operating as a "fifth column" within the opposition ranks.

"According to sources here there is no connection with the attack and the death of [General Abdel Fattah Younes]," said Birtley, who added that documents were found on the defeated faction that linked it to Gaddafi.

'Unity intact'

Shamam said the main rebel force is now in control of the al-Nidaa Brigade's base on the western outskirts of Benghazi, the de facto capital of Libya's opposition-held east.


"It was a long battle and it took many hours because they were heavily armed," he said.

"In the end we arrested 31 of them. We lost four people," said Shamam, who added the group of fighters were rounded up for their role in organising a prison break in Benghazi earlier in the week.

The fighting followed Thursday's killing of Younes, the chief rebel commander, under mysterious circumstances.

Mustafa el-Sagisli, the rebels' deputy interior minister, said that the al-Nidaa Brigade had been involved in "plans to [plant] car bombs". He said that they "participated in many acts of terrorism inside Benghazi".

The article goes on to describe the latest events in battles in the western mountains. I have been meaning to raise this subject for some days now, since there does seem to have been a study trickle of gains for rebels in this area for a while now according to a variety of accounts. Obviously I have to be skeptical about this sort of thing given past bullshit in this conflict, but all the same I add it to the list of things that are making me lean towards the possibility that there is not a stalemate right now. And that whilst Gaddafi's support goes far beyond what was assumed in the first month or two, we shouldn't make too many further assumptions about what this means in terms of things like his ability to maintain a strong enough fighting force, nor what extent it will shape any possible post-Gaddafi conflict.

 

[Casually Red]

well its not his own people who are whacking each other , thats for sure .

 

[SpineyNorman]

I do wonder whether they're really getting rid of Gadaffi loyalists disguised as rebels or whether this is in fact a factional dispute among rebel leaders - maybe to get rid of those who aren't 100% onside with whatever it is NATO want them to do. Pure speculation I know but I don't believe anything I hear about this anymore.

 

[Casually Red]

I do wonder whether they're really getting rid of Gadaffi loyalists disguised as rebels or whether this is in fact a factional dispute among rebel leaders - maybe to get rid of those who aren't 100% onside with whatever it is NATO want them to do. Pure speculation I know but I don't believe anything I hear about this anymore.

i doubt it very much that its centred around ghadaffi loyalists . It may well be NATO encouraged or just undisciplined factional bloodletting . The rebels tell that many outrageous lies habitually that its impossible to accept their explanations of these events . Money , power , influence , tribal hostility , revenge- theyre all factors in this mixed up crew of puppets .

 

[dylans]

i doubt it very much that its centred around ghadaffi loyalists . It may well be NATO encouraged or just undisciplined factional bloodletting . The rebels tell that many outrageous lies habitually that its impossible to accept their explanations of these events . Money , power , influence , tribal hostility , revenge- theyre all factors in this mixed up crew of puppets .

I think it's pretty clear. Younes was a murdering bastard and Gaddafi's best buddy for decades. The National Transitional Council (and probably NATO ) were quite happy to have him on board despite the fact that he had the blood of many of those under his command on his hands. Some faction or another didn't go along with having this Gaddafi crony, murderer, possible fifth columnist and all round untrustworthy opportunist cunt in the leadership of the rebel military and topped him. Now the NTC is getting its revenge and taking out any faction not with the programme .(also probably with NATO's approval)

 

[SpineyNorman]

I think it's pretty clear. Younes was a murdering bastard and Gaddafi's best buddy for decades. The National Transitional Council (and probably NATO ) were quite happy to have him on board despite the fact that he had the blood of many of those under his command on his hands. Some faction or another didn't go along with having this Gaddafi crony, murderer, possible fifth columnist and all round untrustworthy opportunist cunt in the leadership of the rebel military and topped him. Now the NTC is getting its revenge and taking out any faction not with the programme .(also probably with NATO's approval)

I wonder if it's that simple. I'm basing this on no evidence whatsoever so it is pure speculation but my gut instinct tells me NATO might be playing a bigger role in this than the reactive one you appear to be ascribing to them (sorry if I've misunderstood and that's not the case). I suspect that he might be opposed to the neoliberalisation of Libya and that's why he needs to go, get 'em out of the way while the civil war's still going strong, less questions asked that way. I simply don't trust any of the news that's coming out of there atm so all I have to go on is my gut instinct. I know that probably makes me look like a conspiracy theorist but I think you'd have to be pretty naive to think that kind of thing hasn't crossed their minds at the very least.

And I have to say I'm pretty much convinced now that if the rebels win, or there's a deal done and they're given control of parts of the country, the regime they form will be even worse than Gadaffi's.

 

[Casually Red]

been a while since we've had a massive super dooper spoof from the rebels - bumping off their top general not withstanding - but now for a third time their claimng Gadaffis son Kamis has been killed . Many months ago they told us he'd been killed in that jet pilot suicide attack that never happened , then a few months later they claimed an airstrike had got him . And now theyre claiming it again in Zlitan .
Even Al Jazeera has grown weary of it at this stage and seems to be diplomatically saying its a load of oul shite .

The strategy seems to be if they spoof it enough times the law of averages will take care of it sooner or later .

 

[elbows]

Naughty Libyan regime, taking a leaf out of Irans book...

Libyan foreign ministry spokesman Khalid Ka'im has called on world governments to take action over the unrest in the UK. David Cameron has lost legitimacy and "must go", Libya's official news agency Jana reports. Libya "demands that the international community not stand with arms folded in the face of this gross aggression against the rights of the British people, who are demanding its right to rule its country", the report said.

 

[elbows]

News that the rebel leader sacked his entire cabinet didn't get mentioned here yet?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14451981

The Associated Press quoted NTC member Fathi Turbel as saying it was clear the re-shuffle was needed after the "military, security and media incompetence" in the wake of Gen Younes' death.
Spokesman Shamsiddin Abdulmolah told Reuters the re-shuffle was a sign of "the maturing of the revolution, holding people responsible".
"It's healthy. The NTC is still the highest authority," he said.
Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril has now been asked to form a new cabinet. Council members said some of the ministers could be re-appointed.

And this:

The killing has led to growing division within the rebel leadership and concerns among its domestic and international supporters that even if they defeat Col Gaddafi, they might not be ready to lead the country.

No shit!

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

End game now:

Revolutionary forces have taken As-Zawiyah and Garian. Some more on their way to Tarhouna in the south. Revolutionaries have stepped up fighting in Tripoli, which is more and more surrounded, and taking control of more areas. Gaddafi no longer controls all the phone networks, people no longer scared about what they say.

In recent days hundreds of people poured into the streets when yet more rumours about The Donkey's death surfaced. Probably not true, but he hasn't made appearances recently, and the remaining government officials are acting a bit funny. They know this is over, I think. Another rumour now is that Gaddafi's interior minister has escaped to Tunisia, and Gaddafi has gone to Chad or [Ethiopia] (maybe true or not true). Libyan govt army/border patrol handing themselves to Tunisia. Border is now closing to prevent more criminals from escaping!

For years I thought this day would never come . . . there'll be some more days of course, and be prepared for some out-and-out destruction by remaining government forces (we have heard there are the same rockets that fired indiscriminately at Misrata pointing towards Tripoli itself) . . . Victory is very close.

I just can't wait for revelations about the full extent of Gaddafi's funding of media and politicians abroad - Louis Farakhan we learned today. I wonder how many fringe parties in the UK have received money. We already know about one group, of course; my eyes are on a certain 'Marxist-Leninist' party .

 

[dylans]

Revolutionary forces have taken As-Zawiyah

It is looking like Zawiyah is in rebel hands so for once perhaps, rebel claims may not turn out to be a total lie. Whether this is "endgame" or not depends on whether this offensive is sustainable. As for fighting in Tripoli, I have seen no evidence of this or any evidence that Tripoli is anything but loyal to the regime. Frankly, the pro NATO forces have been so unreliable and dishonest throughout this war that it is difficult to believe a word they say. Ibn, before you begin celebrating perhaps you should consider the kind of regime that will replace Gaddafi, Is a pro NATO dictatorship really what you would call freedom?

 

[Lock&Light]

.............Is a pro NATO dictatorship really what you would call freedom?

Any new government is bound to be pro-NATO, for a while at least, but why does it have to be a "dictatorship"?

 

[dylans]

Any new government is bound to be pro-NATO, for a while at least, but why does it have to be a "dictatorship"?

Several reasons. Because it won't be the result of the popular will of the Libyan people who are clearly divided by this war. It will be a regional government installed by NATO bombing over a conquered Capital. There is zero evidence that Tripoli is anything but loyal to the present regime. What do you think the reaction of those who are pro regime will be to the installation of a NATO sponsored regime? Do you think they will welcome the opposition with open arms? They won't, they will be treated as hated conquerers and traitors and there will be an insurgency. Likewise how do you think the new regime will treat Gaddafi loyalists? They will be ruthlessly repressed. This is a divided population, despite the claims of Western propaganda and the installation of a regime that does not enjoy legitimacy in the eyes of large sections of the population can only be maintained by force.

Furthermore, it is reasonable to judge the behaviour of any future government on their behaviour during war and the opposition have shown a great deal of brutality including racism and pogroms against those who have fallen under its control. Finally the opposition is led by many who were, until recently, loyal members of Gaddafi's circle. They have shown no interest in democracy before, why should we assume they have converted to democratic values now?