I thought you had me on ignore?
Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement
- Thread starter ernestolynch
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I thought you had me on ignore?
Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
he wasn't that much of a destabiliser; virtually ALL of the M/e saw Iran, post-revolution, as a far greater threat, and quietly cheered him on (and assisted him) when he started the Iran-iraq war, which he did basically to stop revolutionary Islam spreading westwards. Kuwait was invaded over slant drilling, but did not destabilise the area. since GW1 his regime was too knackered to destabilise anything.
Saddam was Israel's excuse. Now they don't have that one any more.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Lame.
Do you think an Iraq under virtual Iranian domination is any less of an excuse for Israel?
Iran is indeed another excuse for Israel. Even without any influence in Iraq.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
( I presume you mean "iran is another excuse")
But that undermines your argument that the invasion was justified because it removed an excuse for Israeli regional aggression. Not to mention the fact that Israel was one of the principle supporters of the US invasion and regime change, Israel has plenty of excuses to choose from, It hardly needed Saddam. As I said, that's a lame justification for an invasion that has caused so much suffering and destruction. You can do better than that.
Sorry, of course I did. I'll edit it.
There can, in the end, be no general improvement in the ME until Israel has been persuaded/forced to end the impasse.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Oh, I quite agree, Israel is the single biggest force for destablisation in the region. However don't you see that there is a huge contradiction in your argument here. Israel doesn't act alone, it exists with the full support of the US. The same political interests that support Israel, politically, economically and militarily, also invaded Iraq and (to get back to topic) are engineering regime change in Libya. Empire is at the heart of all this and you can't condemn the actions of imperialism on the one hand and applaud it on the other.
I have applauded nothing.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
OK, perhaps that was slightly provocative language, apols if it came across like that. But you do agree with the invasion of Iraq though right? Doesn't agreeing with something, thinking its the right thing to do etc amount to the same thing?
I did think it had to be done, and I still do.
Would have preferred it if it had been done better, mind you.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Then we are back to the initial question, in what way has the invasion improved anything. You agree that Israel doesn't need Iraq as an excuse, and anyway it pushed for the invasion, so your argument on that score is fatally flawed. What other justification is there? It violated international law. (and there is no question it did- international humanitarian law is very clear that an attack on a nation that poses no threat to the attacker is a crime) It caused untold suffering and still does. It empowered Iran across the region. What else is there?
It removed Saddam Hussein.
It also reminded despots that they weren't quite so safe as they had thought they were.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Two things. The first is obvious. The US supports despotic regimes across the middle east. The lesson they have learned is they are safe as long as they retain US patronage. Ask the leaders of Saudi, Bahrain etc. Is that really something we should consider a positive outcome?
Second, the message regional leaders recieved was somewhat different to the one you suggest. It told them that they would be safe if they had nukes. Saddam was overthrown, not because he had weapons of mass destruction but because he DIDN'T. The same goes for Gaddafi. Gaddafi was persuaded (by Blair) that he could avoid Saddam's fate if he gave up his WMD programme. He dutifully did and now look at him. The lesson hasn't been ignored. Nukes make you safe. Ask North Korea. Ask Pakistan.Ask Israel. So one of the major implications of the Iraqi invasion has been to make the world potentially more unstable and more unsafe, because it has increased the possibility of Nuclear proliferation
I don't agree with that interpretation of the facts.
I do agree with much of what you say, dylans and the invasion of Iraq was clearly not a total success, but the consequences of all those actions are still playing out, and the judgement will have to be left to history.
dylans
overlord of all acorns
Fair enough, let's leave it at this for now then. Thanks for an interesting and healthy discussion
elbows
Well-Known Member
elbows
Well-Known Member
Another report on these matters, with a frank ending.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/18/libya-gaddafi-rebels-tripoli-oil
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/18/libya-gaddafi-rebels-tripoli-oil
free spirit
more tea vicar?
agreed.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well with news of yet more important locations falling into rebel hands today, things have gone back to full on rumour-tasic state of affairs. The latest ones seem to be that some former Gaddafi deputy has defected, and although I haven't checked them properly yet, 'Gaddafi has had a heart attack' rumours have also begun. I also saw a tweet that claimed NATO have been dropping leaflets telling people to keep up to 4km away from Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli.
Obviously we are many months past the point of giving such rumours the benefit of the doubt, but seeing as the situation has clearly continued to shift to the point where it is again rather tempting to predict an imminent conclusion to Gaddafi's rule, I'll start to go on about this sort of thing a bit more again now. Even if its just the usual horses hit, its still interesting to look at the timing, and consider how such rumours may either start to bubble up at certain times because of the wider sense of momentum getting people excited, or be part of a carefully timed propaganda campaign that is kept broadly in sync with events on the ground.
Im back to where we were quite some months ago, in terms of thinking that Gaddafi could be gone within literally the next 5 minutes or could yet hang on much longer than anticipated. Only this time its considerably harder to imagine that he has enough tools in his arsenal left to hang on. I never disregard his track record when it comes to survival and his tendency to throw curve-balls, but I can't see how he can get round the crippling loss of transport routes, the amount of key settlements lost, the amount of damage air-strikes have done to his military, communication & intelligence apparatus.
I am beyond anxious to see how well Libya copes in the next phase, it could be very ugly. and yet I do retain some hope that some of the darkest scenarios painted in this thread will not come to pass.
Obviously we are many months past the point of giving such rumours the benefit of the doubt, but seeing as the situation has clearly continued to shift to the point where it is again rather tempting to predict an imminent conclusion to Gaddafi's rule, I'll start to go on about this sort of thing a bit more again now. Even if its just the usual horses hit, its still interesting to look at the timing, and consider how such rumours may either start to bubble up at certain times because of the wider sense of momentum getting people excited, or be part of a carefully timed propaganda campaign that is kept broadly in sync with events on the ground.
Im back to where we were quite some months ago, in terms of thinking that Gaddafi could be gone within literally the next 5 minutes or could yet hang on much longer than anticipated. Only this time its considerably harder to imagine that he has enough tools in his arsenal left to hang on. I never disregard his track record when it comes to survival and his tendency to throw curve-balls, but I can't see how he can get round the crippling loss of transport routes, the amount of key settlements lost, the amount of damage air-strikes have done to his military, communication & intelligence apparatus.
I am beyond anxious to see how well Libya copes in the next phase, it could be very ugly. and yet I do retain some hope that some of the darkest scenarios painted in this thread will not come to pass.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its been turned up another notch, with some tweets that rebel Tripoli operation has begun. Also that NATO says Abdullah Senussi, Gaddafi's chief of intelligence, was killed. (had previously heard about an airstrike on his house, perhaps yesterday, can't remember right now).
I have not yet looked beyond twitter for confirmation of any of these things, but as per my previous message I'm throwing them out there as much to simply look at whats being said more than to try to discover the actual facts right now.
Rumours of safehaven deals and jets to take Gaddafi away are also back.
I have not yet looked beyond twitter for confirmation of any of these things, but as per my previous message I'm throwing them out there as much to simply look at whats being said more than to try to discover the actual facts right now.
Rumours of safehaven deals and jets to take Gaddafi away are also back.
Elbows, why not wait for confirmed reports?
elbows
Well-Known Member
For the same reason that this thread was busy 6 months ago. During potentially fast-paced developments quite a lot of people are going to be hungry for info, and even if the quality of info is poor, and people recognise this, it can still be worth discussing. I moaned plenty about dodgy sources & info from quite early on, I didn't tend to give twitter sources from Libya the benefit of the doubt back then, and Im not about to start now. But I do want to talk about this stuff, and by the time I next have an opportunity to post in this thread things may have moved on and I'll have forgotten what the rumours were at this moment.
I do not know what I may have learnt from paying attention to the rumours,hopes,fears & propaganda from both Egypt and Libya as dramatic events unfolded in rather different ways in these countries. Hopefully something, for its probably good to prepare for the possibility that any of us, any nation, could end up in a situation of extreme turmoil at some point. Having a well established sense of some signs to watch for and pitfalls to avoid when faced with a fast flowing stream of information of widely varying quality and plenty of propaganda motives at work, could be vital. Even if I am not sure what specifically I may have learnt, I can hope that just going through the experience of being exposed to all this stuff and trying to make assessments of the reality along the way, and then getting to see what actually happens, can hone our judgement skills. Even if just a little, every little helps when faced with thick fog at the time you most need clarity.
I do not know what I may have learnt from paying attention to the rumours,hopes,fears & propaganda from both Egypt and Libya as dramatic events unfolded in rather different ways in these countries. Hopefully something, for its probably good to prepare for the possibility that any of us, any nation, could end up in a situation of extreme turmoil at some point. Having a well established sense of some signs to watch for and pitfalls to avoid when faced with a fast flowing stream of information of widely varying quality and plenty of propaganda motives at work, could be vital. Even if I am not sure what specifically I may have learnt, I can hope that just going through the experience of being exposed to all this stuff and trying to make assessments of the reality along the way, and then getting to see what actually happens, can hone our judgement skills. Even if just a little, every little helps when faced with thick fog at the time you most need clarity.
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
Thousands of prisoners freed from Abu Salim prison in Tripoli today. Battle for Tripoli tommorow. T55 gonna roll into the city 
Epic, in so many ways!
Epic, in so many ways!
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
Reports that rebel boats are landing in the capital's harbour, while NATO have started attacking Gaddafi's compound. Fighting is breaking out again between government forces and the Tripoli Revolutionary brigade. The Battle of Tripoli may already have begun.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
Bye Bye Gaddafi you sadistic cunt. 
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
Yep.
There is more news piling in now, confirmed and unconfirmed reports. A real cluster of them, at that. This, however, from 'Tripoli Post' (website):
Breaking News: Libyan Rebels Take Control of Tripoli International Airport, Report
[Shame the thread starter is no longer here to commiserate. Is it wrong to taunt the departed?]
It's going to be a long night/morning.
There is more news piling in now, confirmed and unconfirmed reports. A real cluster of them, at that. This, however, from 'Tripoli Post' (website):
Breaking News: Libyan Rebels Take Control of Tripoli International Airport, Report
[Shame the thread starter is no longer here to commiserate. Is it wrong to taunt the departed?]
It's going to be a long night/morning.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
What happened to him? Taunt away, unlike Gaddafi, he'll be back one day.
Ibn Khaldoun
the present is dead, long live the future . . .
Banned. For throwing abuse in/derailing someone's thread, predictably.
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