Joe Biden

[SpackleFrog]

Trump's chances of making a fool of himself goes up dramatically with female moderators.

I think he'll make a fool of himself anyway, the question is whether he will make a fool of himself in the eyes of his potential voters.

 

[JimW]

I think he'll make a fool of himself anyway, the question is whether he will make a fool of himself in the eyes of his potential voters.

Still seems backwards to me, he's losing and has to find something that works like "her emails" and the shock value of shooting off at the mouth. Latters no go, old news and now off putting to more, needs some rabbit like former.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Still seems backwards to me, he's losing and has to find something that works like "her emails" and the shock value of shooting off at the mouth. Latters no go, old news and now off putting to more, needs some rabbit like former.

I mean, he was losing in the polls last time, but we'll see. I think it will definitely be close.

 

[JimW]

I mean, he was losing in the polls last time, but we'll see. I think it will definitely be close.

That's what I mean, behind both times but last time her had Clinton to bash and the freshness of his schtick, but not this time. No idea really but won't be surprised if in fact he tanks.

 

[Marty1]

Basically, I think as bad a performer as Trump is, he is also fairly used to doing it by now, and if he hasn't already put you off ever voting for him nothing he says in the debates will. He's not going to say anything that generates any more negative coverage than he would get in a normal week. He's not gonna put anyone off voting for him who isn't already not voting for him.

Biden on the other hand is an even worse performer. Trump can sometimes be funny (at least to people likely to vote for him and can sometimes rile people up against a target and get them onside. Biden can't do that. He isn't going to have moments like that and a couple of big gaffes could really hurt him by putting off potential voters who could easily choose to not vote or vote for a 3rd party candidate.

But, assuming the polling is correct and Biden is ahead in key states and Democrat core voters turn out in big numbers, it probably won't matter for the reasons that have been discussed.

7/4 on Trump to win by the way. I might have a pop at it if it goes a bit longer.

I don’t really bet apart from the occasional go on national lottery but hope the hapless Trump rage media keep pumping out the same crud they did in 2016 about Trump having zero chance of winning - as I may well put some money on him for a decent payout.

 

[krtek a houby]

I don’t really bet apart from the occasional go on national lottery but hope the hapless Trump rage media keep pumping out the same crud they did in 2016 about Trump having zero chance of winning - as I may well put some money on him for a decent payout.

Not going to put money on your Trojan horse, then? The guy who is going to usher in all the "far left extremists"?

 

[Marty1]

Not going to put money on your Trojan horse, then? The guy who is going to usher in all the "far left extremists"?

Whats his odds?

 

[krtek a houby]

Whats his odds?

You're the expert on horseshit, you tell me.

 

[Pickman's model]

You're the expert on horseshit, you tell me.

He's not an expert on anything

 

[SpackleFrog]

That's what I mean, behind both times but last time her had Clinton to bash and the freshness of his schtick, but not this time. No idea really but won't be surprised if in fact he tanks.

I could definitely agree they both have huge potential to tank.

 

[Streathamite]

I mean, he was losing in the polls last time, but we'll see.

Actually, he wasn't. In the key states - the ones that got him to 270, and the ones he based a huge amount of his (successful) strategy on, he was always at most slightly behind, but more often level or ahead. The problem is, the headline p[oll of the nation overall - but without a state-by-state breakdown showed Hillary ahead.
And lo and behold, that's exactly what happened. Clinton won the popular vote, but Trump won the only one which actually matters.
Conclusion; she fucked up her strategy, and she only has herself to blame.

 

[Streathamite]

That's what I mean, behind both times but last time her had Clinton to bash and the freshness of his schtick, but not this time. No idea really but won't be surprised if in fact he tanks.

Thi9s, plus COVID-19, plus BLM. Lafayette park was an absolute PR disaster for him.

 

[Cid]

I could definitely agree they both have huge potential to tank.

Perhaps... But the key here isn't that people are voting for a Clinton, off the back of Bernie shenanigans, they're very much going to be voting against Trump. Biden might as well be a brick.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Perhaps... But the key here isn't that people are voting for a Clinton, off the back of Bernie shenanigans, they're very much going to be voting against Trump. Biden might as well be a brick.

Yeah I get this is the argument but I'm suspicious of it.

A brick could beat Trump. A brick can't piss anyone off or make itself look stupid. Biden, I'm not convinced. And Im not sure I buy this argument that a majority of voters will vote for literally anyone or anything to get rid of Trump

 

[Streathamite]

Biden, I'm not convinced. And Im not sure I buy this argument that a majority of voters will vote for literally anyone or anything to get rid of Trump

Sure, but he doesn't need "a majority" on that alone. He's already got the democrat base. He just needs all those dems/neutrals who sat the dance out, rather than vote for HRC last time (there's quite a lot of those), plus he needs to pull a fairly small number of those in the rustbelt/midwest states who voted for Trump in 2016 to desert Orangetwat this time.
People like...
people who've lost their jobs thanks to Covid
peole who've lost their businesses thanks to Covid
People who've lost loved ones thanks to Covid
People who are simply massively unimp-ressed by his handling of the crisis
People who thougfht he'd bring the good times backto their flyover state - and see he's done pretty much the oppsite
Stern, moralistic godbotherers who really aren't impressed by all the Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal stuff
ex-vets, or simply dead patriotic, support-ourf-boys types, who will be spitting feathers about the taliban bounty revelations
ditto whose stomachs are turned by Trump sucking up to Putin, Erdogan and Kim, whilst denigrating who they view as the USA's allies
People who care enough about the constitution to see getting the goons to batter shit out of protesters just so's trump can have a phot-op as just that final step beyond the pale.

Put that lot together - there's enough votes there. Plenty enough.

 

[yield]

I don’t really bet apart from the occasional go on national lottery but hope the hapless Trump rage media keep pumping out the same crud they did in 2016 about Trump having zero chance of winning - as I may well put some money on him for a decent payout.

I think that Trump will get a second term.

 

[Streathamite]

I think that Trump will get a second term.

ermm...why, given the current polls and humongous national crisis?

 

[yield]

ermm...why, given the current polls and humongous national crisis?

Shy voters and the broken electoral college in the states.

 

[two sheds]

and let's not underestimate his ability to cheat.

 

[Streathamite]

Shy voters and the broken electoral college in the states.

hmm..... That's probably the only way he could win, if the polls stay the same.However, Biden's not making the same catastrophic error HRC made over the rustbelt and the College. Can't see it working twice.
Also, one thing Trump voters are not, is shy!

 

[Streathamite]

and let's not underestimate his ability to cheat.

to be more accurate, the GOP's historic addiction to voter suppression. They'll pull every trick in the book.

 

[SpackleFrog]

ermm...why, given the current polls and humongous national crisis?

Lets not underestimate the Dems ability to fuck almost anything up. This is a party that historically is famous for losing elections.

 

[yield]

hmm..... That's probably the only way he could win, if the polls stay the same.However, Biden's not making the same catastrophic error HRC made over the rustbelt and the College. Can't see it working twice.
Also, one thing Trump voters are not, is shy!

They are shy and two term is the norm. Only Bush senior and Carter didn't in my recollection.

 

[two sheds]

to be more accurate, the GOP's historic addiction to voter suppression. They'll pull every trick in the book.

Yep as said votes 'going missing' in the mail, Democratic polling stations in inaccessible places and closed early, white supremacists with guns patrolling polling stations, voting machines run by Republican companies ....

 

[bendeus]

He's not an expert on anything

He's an expert on sticking around

 

[Shechemite]

Biden’s a shoe in

 

[two sheds]

The more Trump talks about the Democrats stealing the election the more likely that's exactly what he's planning - muddying the waters is classic tactic.

 

[Streathamite]

Yep as said votes 'going missing' in the mail, Democratic polling stations in inaccessible places and closed early, white supremacists with guns patrolling polling stations, voting machines run by Republican companies ....

..and wer can add to that, mail-in ballots taking an unfeas=ibly long time to both plop and voterts doormasts and to make it back to the vote counters.
And, of course, pace the 200 0 floriday playbook, whole swathes of names being wiped from the electoral rolls.
The good news is, because everyone knows full wel the tricks they pull, the dems should be ready this time.
Hopefully.

 

[two sheds]

Indeed, not sure what they can do about a lot of it though. He just needs to scam enough votes to take him through and any appeals are fucked.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The good news is, because everyone knows full wel the tricks they pull, the dems should be ready this time.
Hopefully.

LOL.