DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
Farage has said he wants to win enough seats to force the issue, but is the projected half dozen really enough to have that influence?
Europe - a mess to come
- Thread starter gosub
- Start date
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
Who is projecting that?
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I read on the interwebs that ukip will go for about 40 seats with the expectation of getting half dozen. I don't know if this is true, I think it was graphs on the polling thread.
so not william hill or Lrd Ashcroft or anything...
I'd google it, but I'm stoned so you'll have to do it yourself.
gosub
~#
Granted, if we end up with Juncker in place calling this democracy with Cameron agreeing through gritted teeth it will be strong for out of EUrope, but can we keep UKIP out of this for the time being. They've had fuck all to say on the matter to date, and there are threads aplenty on them
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
graun said:
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
He also knows that there is not a chance in hell he can bring the referendum forward before the next GE in May 2015(?). Juncker will be appointed around this time. It is probably a ploy by Cameron to try and show the 'need' for a referendum, when no-one could really give a shit who is Commission president.
goldenecitrone
post tenebras lux
Why would he want a referendum before the election? Part of their election spiel will be that only the Tories will give the voters their referendum.
gosub
~#
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/05/juncker-european-commission-presidency-cameron
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27715699 - video of trying to get him to say something.
I suppose you could say he is respecting the Council's decision making process
, but he seems a bit reticent in accountability stakes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27715699 - video of trying to get him to say something.
I suppose you could say he is respecting the Council's decision making process
, but he seems a bit reticent in accountability stakes.King Biscuit Time
Well-Known Member
I'm sure you're right - but I'm also sure he'd sack the fucking lot of that off for another term in office.
gosub
~#
EU leaders were due to agree on a name at a summit at the end of this month, but that deadline could now slip.
It is unlikely that a formal vote on a nominee will take place at the EU summit - and a complex search for consensus may have to continue through the summer. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-27733869
"The UK is threatening to walk from the union if Juncker is elected, but all sides of this spat can see the political advantages, at home and in Brussels, of playing this down to the wire". http://news.sky.com/story/1276925/juncker-a-wily-politician-who-enjoys-the-game - Watch out Labour and SNP
Look like Tory's are going into a bit a expectation management, Juncker to win in the end, after a bit of dance. A tokenistic sacrafical lamb first perhaps.
Thing is though, EU needs reform, no matter what. And that means a treaty, and that means a referendum....Chances of winning a referendum under President Juncker - low to nil I'd say
It is unlikely that a formal vote on a nominee will take place at the EU summit - and a complex search for consensus may have to continue through the summer. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-27733869
"The UK is threatening to walk from the union if Juncker is elected, but all sides of this spat can see the political advantages, at home and in Brussels, of playing this down to the wire". http://news.sky.com/story/1276925/juncker-a-wily-politician-who-enjoys-the-game - Watch out Labour and SNP
Look like Tory's are going into a bit a expectation management, Juncker to win in the end, after a bit of dance. A tokenistic sacrafical lamb first perhaps.
Thing is though, EU needs reform, no matter what. And that means a treaty, and that means a referendum....Chances of winning a referendum under President Juncker - low to nil I'd say
Manter
Lunch Mob
Apologies if already posted- in Le Monde yesterday and translated in the guardian today. Essentially summarises as 'just fuck off then and quit messing us around'
'http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/06/french-message-britain-get-out-european-union
E2a original for the francophones http://mobile.lemonde.fr/idees/arti...ais-ne-la-faites-pas-mourir_4431399_3232.html
'http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/06/french-message-britain-get-out-european-union
E2a original for the francophones http://mobile.lemonde.fr/idees/arti...ais-ne-la-faites-pas-mourir_4431399_3232.html
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gosub
~#
Article in de Spiegel saying it isn't the parliament getting bolshie, and Merkel has her own headaches over Schulz being made German Commissioner,when his party did badly in the German bit of the elections. Schulz who pretty much set up the whole Speizencandidate thing.
If things weren't confused enough. As a model of democratic accountibily it leeaves a lot to be desired. More like a giant jenga set. Juncker, for all the press attention ,tle seems unworthy of the most dangerous man in EUrope, that title I think I would award to Schulz, Juncker's mistake,was getting carried along with him.
I think what would help would be Cameron issuing a side track that he recognises Luxembourg's sovereign right to select whom ever they want as Commissioner
If things weren't confused enough. As a model of democratic accountibily it leeaves a lot to be desired. More like a giant jenga set. Juncker, for all the press attention ,tle seems unworthy of the most dangerous man in EUrope, that title I think I would award to Schulz, Juncker's mistake,was getting carried along with him.
I think what would help would be Cameron issuing a side track that he recognises Luxembourg's sovereign right to select whom ever they want as Commissioner
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DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
What kind of reforms? Surely Britain is the place needing reformed. No matter what Brussels does they won't appease people.
Britain should just exit and let the Europeans get on with it. We can sit around all sentimental, teary-eyed about how we used to rule the world and how great it is we are not nationalist. We can then spend some time 'debating' whether some other irrelevance is to blame for our increasing parochialism in the world (maybe begin with the Welsh Assembly? If that works, maybe Scotland? We ruled the world before we had devolution after all).
Good article, thanks for posting. Europe would certainly be better off without the money laundering banana monarchy that the UK is today.
gosub
~#
Inclinded to agree long term we'd be better off out, but right now by going-you call that an election? We are doing them a massive favour
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
I think we would be doing them a favour, not entirely sure we would be better off. Personally, I would prefer to be ruled by elites in Brussels than elites in London. The types of reforms Brussels need (more 'people power', less 'state/corporate' power is generally the opposite of what the UK means about reforms both in the UK and Europe). If we want to build a small American-style island in the North Sea, then it is better to not bother Europe with this guff.
gosub
~#
Agree, but we are not in the EUro and much of that Le Monde article was true However that wasn't a Presidential election,and if we can push them into doing it properly in future more the the better.
eta Sorry didn't read your post properly was multitasking badly on mobile.
Depends how you define better off. resolving the political malaise of a political elite doing top down politics, would be better for everyone. There would be a price economically, though. but A lot of the sell off of state industries has been driven by EUrope in theory to aid the growth of pan European multinationals, and the whole thing is so opaque you can't just go it must have been London.. It's not just UK parties though that are pushing for TTIP which destroys even the ever closer Union thinking on that score. Though in an age of Intercontinental ballistic missiles I'm not in favour of just creating EU vs US vs Asia either myself.
eta Sorry didn't read your post properly was multitasking badly on mobile.
Depends how you define better off. resolving the political malaise of a political elite doing top down politics, would be better for everyone. There would be a price economically, though. but A lot of the sell off of state industries has been driven by EUrope in theory to aid the growth of pan European multinationals, and the whole thing is so opaque you can't just go it must have been London.. It's not just UK parties though that are pushing for TTIP which destroys even the ever closer Union thinking on that score. Though in an age of Intercontinental ballistic missiles I'm not in favour of just creating EU vs US vs Asia either myself.
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DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Well, for me the problem with TTIP is that no-one really wants it or the consequences of it although it can be framed in a way so that people do not understand it.
When I hear "the EU needs reform", I would like to think it would mean that things like TTIP are discussed openly and we can come to some democratic decision on whether we want our economies with these new rules. The fact of the matter is that, in my opinion, it is the British that have a disproportionately large impact on making the EU a pretty unpleasant organisation, just look at Westminster. The EU is probably more democratic than Westminster and political life in the UK. They actually do have a proper constitution, and even respect privacy (see Google and compare that to our secret services being in cahoots with the American surveillance programs).
I guess what I am saying is that for all its faults, the Eurocrat elite is still a much more progressive one than the one in the UK. I believe if the UK left, the EU would be a stronger organisation as a result. There should be some long-needed soul searching in the UK but we seem hell-bent on importing American institutions and political culture (which won't work in my opinion) so I doubt that would even happen. As I said before, if the UK left, it will be the minorities that get the blame for Britain's shortcomings. The Tories are trying to abolish the Welsh Assembly already. They are totally mad. No-one can work with.
gosub
~#
Whatever. Double digit unemployment and negative interest rates, something needs to change, though as we have neither decoupling rather than complicating the mess seems sensible. But we are in at the moment and should have the self confidence to stop some half arsed effort that further distances an elite from its electorate. I'd almost say now we, the public and media, can see where you are going just do it again, but can we in the UK who have been lied to and denied any possible exit at least be offered that opportunity first.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
I just don't see how exiting the EU will help spending in the UK or unemployment. It has all the hallmarks of the government trying to find something to blame for the mess, and the EU being the easiest target.
gosub
~#
I wasn't saying that at all. More holding up a pan-atone chart to the grass you consider greener. I don't however think the British economy would collapse, were we outside the EU, in fact I'd say we all dance better when we are comfortable within our own skins.
I am not sure how comfortable Germany actually is with this scheme Shultz came up with, his vote was down in Germany and he didn't win the Parliament, but I don't really see how else you untangle the EUro. (Might be biased from spending time with the in laws in Dublin), I'm not convinced the British Lions will score a conversion or that Germany penalties will out. (analogies I 'm working up for a later date), but it good to see the media comment is getting more reflective Observer, Sunday Times
I actually think dancing both reels and then re-evaluating might be the most healthy thing to do, assuming the not-Juncker candidates are actually prepared to be humiliated. - It never occured to me Farage et al might vote with Juncker to uphold the sovereignty of the EUropean parliament, be good to have some deeds to judge people by rather than speculation- I'll almost be disappointed if Juncker falls on his sword because an unelected von Rompley tells him to.
gosub
~#
"Pressure is growing on Ed Miliband to help block Jean-Claude Juncker from taking the top job at the European Commission.
A public statement from the Labour leader would allow David Cameron to claim the support of all three main party leaders in Britain ahead of a key meeting with Angela Merkel today, government sources said.
Mr Cameron and the German chancellor will resume talks over who should be the next president of the commission at a meeting in Sweden.
The prime minister will frame objections to Mr Juncker, the 59-year-old former Luxembourg prime minister and arch-federalist, in the context of wider EU reform. He is expected to argue that it would be wrong in principle and set a disastrous precedent to allow the European parliament to have the decisive say.
However, although he is backed by Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats, Mr Miliband has so far avoided public comment on Mr Juncker’s candidacy.
It is understood that the Labour leader wants to wait until after a meeting with the party’s new MEPs before making a public comment. “We want to see a strong programme of reform that reflects the wishes of British and European voters,” said a Labour spokesman.
Meanwhile, No 10 is relieved that one of its favoured candidates for the role, Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, has so far failed to rule out taking the job.
Today’s meeting of leaders from Britain, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden is supposed to discuss sweeping principles of EU reform but officials regard it as inevitable that lobbying over the presidency will play a part.
France yesterday maintained its support for Mr Juncker, but left the door open to another candidate from Europe’s centre-right political family.
Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, said that Paris had not wavered in its belief that the selection procedure based on the outcome of last month’s European elections must be respected. Mr Juncker was the candidate of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which won the relative majority, so he should become president, said Mr Fabius.
“You cannot suddenly say ‘no’ the moment the election result comes in,” the Socialist minister said in a radio interview. “We might regret it because this president does not come from our political group, but you follow a certain democratic logic.” However he made clear that France might accept an alternative EPP candidate.
Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Swedish prime minister, boosted Mr Cameron’s hopes of blocking Mr Juncker when he said he disagreed with the principle that the European parliament, not elected national leaders, should take the lead in making the appointment.
“For me and for Sweden, we have put in question the process itself,” Mr Reinfeldt told the Financial Times.
Mr Juncker, who is under fire in Britain over his character and federalist views, does not enjoy enthusiastic support from any EU leader. However he received strong backing from Manfred Weber, the new German chairman of the EPP. “We must keep the commitments that we made to our voters: he will be the next president of the commission,” said Mr Weber. “
He criticised Mr Cameron for attempting to block the appointment. “We cannot sell the soul of Europe,” he said. “If we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill.” "http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4113128.ece
Just talking to Labour won't cut it. UKIP topped the poll, and SNP topped the poll in Scotland. SNP used their campaign to boost for September but their EP Green grouping will back Junker. UKIP shouldn't really favour Juncker but might want to make mischief. If Cameron doesn't feel it necessary to sound these parties out on similar lines, he's not going to seem credible.
Green party campaigned on EUro issues would be credilble for them to stand up for Juncker
A public statement from the Labour leader would allow David Cameron to claim the support of all three main party leaders in Britain ahead of a key meeting with Angela Merkel today, government sources said.
Mr Cameron and the German chancellor will resume talks over who should be the next president of the commission at a meeting in Sweden.
The prime minister will frame objections to Mr Juncker, the 59-year-old former Luxembourg prime minister and arch-federalist, in the context of wider EU reform. He is expected to argue that it would be wrong in principle and set a disastrous precedent to allow the European parliament to have the decisive say.
However, although he is backed by Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats, Mr Miliband has so far avoided public comment on Mr Juncker’s candidacy.
It is understood that the Labour leader wants to wait until after a meeting with the party’s new MEPs before making a public comment. “We want to see a strong programme of reform that reflects the wishes of British and European voters,” said a Labour spokesman.
Meanwhile, No 10 is relieved that one of its favoured candidates for the role, Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, has so far failed to rule out taking the job.
Today’s meeting of leaders from Britain, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden is supposed to discuss sweeping principles of EU reform but officials regard it as inevitable that lobbying over the presidency will play a part.
France yesterday maintained its support for Mr Juncker, but left the door open to another candidate from Europe’s centre-right political family.
Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, said that Paris had not wavered in its belief that the selection procedure based on the outcome of last month’s European elections must be respected. Mr Juncker was the candidate of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which won the relative majority, so he should become president, said Mr Fabius.
“You cannot suddenly say ‘no’ the moment the election result comes in,” the Socialist minister said in a radio interview. “We might regret it because this president does not come from our political group, but you follow a certain democratic logic.” However he made clear that France might accept an alternative EPP candidate.
Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Swedish prime minister, boosted Mr Cameron’s hopes of blocking Mr Juncker when he said he disagreed with the principle that the European parliament, not elected national leaders, should take the lead in making the appointment.
“For me and for Sweden, we have put in question the process itself,” Mr Reinfeldt told the Financial Times.
Mr Juncker, who is under fire in Britain over his character and federalist views, does not enjoy enthusiastic support from any EU leader. However he received strong backing from Manfred Weber, the new German chairman of the EPP. “We must keep the commitments that we made to our voters: he will be the next president of the commission,” said Mr Weber. “
He criticised Mr Cameron for attempting to block the appointment. “We cannot sell the soul of Europe,” he said. “If we grant every national parliament a veto right, Europe would come to a standstill.” "http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4113128.ece
Just talking to Labour won't cut it. UKIP topped the poll, and SNP topped the poll in Scotland. SNP used their campaign to boost for September but their EP Green grouping will back Junker. UKIP shouldn't really favour Juncker but might want to make mischief. If Cameron doesn't feel it necessary to sound these parties out on similar lines, he's not going to seem credible.Green party campaigned on EUro issues would be credilble for them to stand up for Juncker
gosub
~#
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-claude-juncker-european-commission-president
so the parties that came 2nd,3rd,5th don't recognise the wider election. Idiots, they are behaving the same way as the three main parties in Brussels are. They need statements from the SNP and UKIP as well.
so the parties that came 2nd,3rd,5th don't recognise the wider election. Idiots, they are behaving the same way as the three main parties in Brussels are. They need statements from the SNP and UKIP as well.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Why do all the major parties care so much about Juncker? I just do not understand the significance of his appointment. Is this some anti-German thing?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Nothing to do with nationality, rather his stance as an 'old school' federalist, integrationist Euro-believer. The main UK parties that got a 'kicking' in the EP14's said that 'they had heard' the voters, were 'listening' and 'knew that things had to change'. Consequently they can't then consistently support a candidate representing little/no change.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
The problem for Britain is that they have no real vision for Europe. The best outcome for Cameron/Miliband/Clegg is to get Juncker and snipe from the sidelines. The fact we are not part of the euro means that we offer nothing, except stopping important reforms of EU institutions (and I do not mean tweaking insignificant policies around immigration). This debate is based on fiscal policy decisions that do not affect us. If we stop German-led reforms of the ECB, we might get shoved before we get the chance to jump.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
gosub
~#
I think we do have a vision, but like Sweden it is shaped by being outside the EUro. I don't think the EUro is unpickable. If it isn't, then eventually chosing a Commision President the way the Parliament outlined is probably the best way forward. I think you have it backwards on Germany and ECB reform, if anything this neutralises the power of nation states, but the public didn't know that when it was voting and the campaigns they ran and the way most media covered it, certainly didn't make it clear.
gosub
~#
I claim the A star for getting the thread in place well before the election, and while I was laughed at, it has meant the Urban thread on this isn't like CiF full of people irate with Cameron for standing in the way of democracy. I took on board some people were confused, so when a outside observer with WSJ condenses into 1 article, I did post it. How's Italy propping up Merkel working out for you?
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