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Europe - a mess to come

but it also had a picture of the party leader on it, probably pointed at a national manifesto, and we had party leaders debate 3 times on mainstream telly and a media geared to reporting everything along party lines.
 
I already put up who showed the debate, of which one was shown on bbc parliament, there was no real link made to pan parties certainly here and even in Germany they carried Merkel's face not Juncker's - presumably why only 7% of Germans (where they did show the debates on mainstream channels) associated voting CDP get Juncker.
 
gosub said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...op-job-as-defeat-looms-for-David-Cameron.html might even wrong foot the Euroskeptics- so fucked up would this appointment be, chatter on the blogs about whats going on is that its just a cynical exercise to make Cameron look good when Juncker is junked.
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This is certainly a little bit crazy. Cameron (and Labour and Lib Dems) opposed Juncker's appointment in an elaborate scheme designed to make it look like he has little influence in Europe and cannot get what he really wants as opposed to the Germans, who can get what they (don't really) want.

Telegraph levels of spin here.
 
More a case of backing both horses I think. If Cameron does pull it off, well its all meaningless choreography, if he doesn't its all gravy anyway. But they come across as conspiricy loons, though not as bad as thems trying to call it democratic
 
Pull what off? I just don't see how Cameron, Miliband or Clegg look good. They all made a massive fuss about this and were ignored. Is Cameron now going to campaign for withdrawal from the EU?
 
hasn't actually gone through yet. But its going to be hard for them to sell their view of the EU if and when it does I agree. Doesn't mean they aren't right though, and they be even more fucked if they hadn't stuck their heads above the parapet
 
DairyQueen said:
Must be a bluff unless Cameron thinks there is a realistic chance the public would vote out.
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Polling has it neck and neck at the moment unless there's reform, and looks more like the reform will be in the other direction, ever closer union. Its to big and and important an issue to leave Farage with half the playing field to himself.
 
I saw yet another big anti-EU front page this week in one of the right tabloids, something like "15 reasons why the EU is bad"

...heres something I don't understand - why do right-wing papers push so hard for the UK to get out of the EU? Right-wing business leaders want more immigration to keep a supply of cheap labour - just this week we had Michael Bloomberg saying"British people should accept the country needs “a lot of immigration” to have a successful economic future."

Where does this disconnect between right-wing editorials and the wishes of business leaders come from? Does it come down to the characters of newspaper barons?
 
daily mail and the sun have been on the case for years, the express is on a crusade for it, the telegraph definitely gives a lot space and momentum to eurosceptic voices and generally snipes at cameron and his ilk from the right, not sure what the times is up to...

17.jpg

the FT id imagine gives a lot of space to all the business people who say the UK economy needs more immigration.
 
Can you point to any papers actually supporting withdrawal from the eu though - i mean actual withdrawal rather than calling for a referendum or attacking EU initiatives or supporting calls for reform?
 
ska invita said:
Where does this disconnect between right-wing editorials and the wishes of business leaders come from? Does it come down to the characters of newspaper barons?
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Personally, the EU is an ideal scapegooat. I would be surprised if a Tory leader campaigns for withdrawal.

butchersapron said:
Can you point to any papers actually supporting withdrawal from the eu though - i mean actual withdrawal rather than calling for a referendum or attacking EU initiatives or supporting calls for reform?
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... I could point too columnists.
 
butchersapron said:
Can you point to any papers actually supporting withdrawal from the eu though - i mean actual withdrawal rather than calling for a referendum or attacking EU initiatives or supporting calls for reform?
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but im pretty sure all the polling predicts an in-out referendum would mean the Out vote winning comfortably - why campaign for a referendum only to back the stay in vote?
 
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The polling suggests a quite comfortable victory for staying in the eu. If these papers want, as you say, to leave the eu, rather than being critical of its current configuration, would they not say this?

Only one paper wants to leave the eu - the express.
 
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DairyQueen said:
Of course Germany wants to neutralise the power of the nation states. They want the euro to work, and some current thinking on this is that you have to have a common fiscal policy.
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Germany's quid pro quo on currency union was that nation states members look after their own debt and there is little support for fiscal union in Germany or any of the former DM zone countries. The Euro has been good for Germany and works for them but the trade imbalance that it has caused throughout the Eurozone has been a disaster for European stability. The German population is overwhelmingly pro-Europe in principle but any party that goes to the electorate arguing that what Europe needs is more FIAT sales and less VWs is a hard sell.
 
butchersapron said:
The polling suggests a quite comfortable victory for staying in the eu. If these papers want, as you say, to leave the eu, rather than being critical of its current configuration, would they not say this?

Only one paper wants to leave the eu - the express.
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i stand corrected on the polls - at least in part - the renegotiated terms seems to be a winner (do people even know or understand what terms are to be renegotiated? I doubt it)

But did you scroll down to the section
Standard polling on EU membership?
The tables below show polling on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU. It does not ask the question in the context of a proposed prior renegotiation.

The polling from 2010-2014 shows a clear win for the Leave vote throughout that period, though i'm surprised that the polling suggests a mild swing toward Stay in recent months, but it looks pretty fifty/fifty to me at present. Surprised considering the UKIP swing of late.

Lets say you are right and its only the Express that wants out, then the other papers are nonetheless playing with fire as the polls do show in the Standard Polling question the majority of people want to Leave.

If there is a referendum in the next parliament, and there is a chance of there being one, then the question is likely to be:
"should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" ...put a cross by the section of the ballot paper marked either "remain" or "leave".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24726054

Theres no talk of renegotiation there - and with that in mind the equivalent poll to look at is the Standard polling on EU membership one. The only way to avoid that is for Cameron or whoever else to somehow renegotiate it to an extent that anyone who might vote Leave would swing their vote to Stay. I'm not sure what renegotiation would satisfy them.

That said the right press may well change tack if they are satisfied by any renegotiations that are achieved, and also might possibly urge their readers explicitly to stay in ahead of an in-out referendum.
 
ska invita said:
i stand corrected on the polls - at least in part - the renegotiated terms seems to be a winner (do people even know or understand what terms are to be renegotiated? I doubt it)

But did you scroll down to the section
Standard polling on EU membership?
The tables below show polling on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU. It does not ask the question in the context of a proposed prior renegotiation.

The polling from 2010-2014 shows a clear win for the Leave vote throughout that period, though i'm surprised that the polling suggests a mild swing toward Stay in recent months, but it looks pretty fifty/fifty to me at present. Surprised considering the UKIP swing of late.

Lets say you are right and its only the Express that wants out, then the other papers are nonetheless playing with fire as the polls do show in the Standard Polling question the majority of people want to Leave.

If there is a referendum in the next parliament, and there is a chance of there being one, then the question is likely to be:
"should the UK remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" ...put a cross by the section of the ballot paper marked either "remain" or "leave".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24726054

Theres no talk of renegotiation there - and with that in mind the equivalent poll to look at is the Standard polling on EU membership one. The only way to avoid that is for Cameron or whoever else to somehow renegotiate it to an extent that anyone who might vote Leave would swing their vote to Stay. I'm not sure what renegotiation would satisfy them.

That said the right press may well change tack if they are satisfied by any renegotiations that are achieved, and also might possibly urge their readers explicitly to stay in ahead of an in-out referendum.
Click to expand...


The renegotiation part is, in theory, supposed to happen prior to the referendum. Cameron's vision for the referendum was Vote yes for the shiny new deal I've negotiated or No to get out. As the Lords pointed out when they voted down the referendum bill last year, ITS NOT PHYSICALLY POSSIBLE TO CONCLUDE RENEGOTIATION BY 2017.

A lot will depend on how today goes anyway
 
Milliband's vision is, accept the new terms or leave. (new treaty coming in 2018-9) or it was a couple of months ago. he might have apologised for that now. Lib Dems also now in favour of an In Out
 
Well thats that then. Yesterday was either the beginning of the end of the UK's EU membership, or Cameron et al will come to sell a new idea of Associate membership as being their solution to the problem, only its not his idea, has been knocking around for a while and is in effect the government by fax that politicians have sneered at for years.


UK has now been snubbed both constitutionally and separately, policy wise in relation to regulation of our largest industry, the financial sector, with vast reams of other areas of policy switching to majority voting in November. Pooled sovereignty not so great in practise.
 
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