DUP and Tory f*ck up thread

[Celyn]

killjoy

"In Killjoy jail, one Monday morning ..."

 

[Smangus]

Is it possible to die of a schadenfreude overdose?

Not in my case

 

[brogdale]

Only if they're idiots. This is an absurd game of chicken. The DUP in some ways have more to lose than the Tories. The Tories can lick their wounds and come back in the next election. If the DUP let Corbyn in, and are seen to let Corbyn in, they could be finished in a few years' time.

Right at the beginning of this, I thought the DUP were bound to overplay their hand. And sure enough, that is what they are doing. They are not equals in this negotiation, but are acting as if they were. They're fools.

Tricky balance they've got to effect, though...close enough to extract the largesse, but with enough distance not to be contaminated & destroyed like the LDs were.

 

[killer b]

Tricky balance they've got to effect, though...close enough to extract the largesse, but with enough distance not to be contaminated & destroyed like the LDs were.

There's surely less of a risk of a similar destruction to the Lib Dems - their death was mainly a result of half their voters being well to the left of the party and fucking off once it became clear what they were doing: I don't think there's a similar issue with the DUP.

 

[brogdale]

There's surely less of a risk of a similar destruction to the Lib Dems - their death was mainly a result of half their voters being well to the left of the party and fucking off once it became clear what they were doing: I don't think there's a similar issue with the DUP.

True, but I suppose i was thinking about the potential (economic) clusterfuck of Brexit.

 

[killer b]

Looks like there isn't going to be a deal anyway tbh. Damien Green saying this morning that a deal 'is still possible' sounds like expectation management to me.

 

[bimble]

Minimal pomp for todays' show, which is interesting. First time since 1974 that she's done this in a hat apparently, and there'll be no garters.
"The Queen will not wear her Imperial State Crown or robes for this year’s State Opening, with the annual service of the Order of the Garter also cancelled for the first time since 1984."

 

[teqniq]

What's it going to be, the queen's non-speech then?

 

[Wilf]

Minimal pomp for todays' show, which is interesting. First time since 1974 that she's done this in a hat apparently, and there'll be no garters.
"The Queen will not wear her Imperial State Crown or robes for this year’s State Opening, with the annual service of the Order of the Garter also cancelled for the first time since 1984."

Oh, ffs! I don't want another argument about people going out in their pyjamas.

 

[ska invita]

from what I've heard this isn't clever positioning but genuine breakdown in negotiations, and that they already broke down by the weekend. They are an arrogant bunch the Tories and they expect their own way.

as said the question really is how do the dup vote anyway, and does it make a difference

 

[teqniq]

a plague on all their houses anyway.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

from what I've heard this isn't clever positioning but genuine breakdown in negotiations, and that they already broke down by the weekend. They are an arrogant bunch the Tories and they expect their own way.

as said the question really is how do the dup vote anyway, and does it make a difference

The arithmetic is such that a dup abstention will do the Tories. Sinn Fein's absence ensures that. They'd have to vote against to be trouble, and they were probably never going to do that anyway. Don't know their history on QS votes for Tory govts, but I'd be surprised if they had a history of opposing.

 

[brogdale]

I'm failing to see how, in the absence of any agreement, the DUP could do anything other than abstain...otherwise...what's the point; the vermin would know that they could rely on them anyway. I'd imagine that the creationists would like to give May a bit of a fright...a taste of what would be unless she agrees to start shovelling the £bns across the Celtic Sea.

 

[eoin_k]

That would make 317 tories against 314 others with Sinn Fein and all unionists abstaining.

 

[brogdale]

That would make 317 tories against 314 others with Sinn Fein and all unionists abstaining.

Remember Speaker + 3 deps don't vote.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Hoping her madge has walk in music like in darts and snooker.

Ride of the Valkyries would be an obvious choice.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Hm, bit of horn tooting, but a missed opportunity

 

[eoin_k]

Remember Speaker + 3 deps don't vote.

That already included the speaker, but Labour has two deputies as against one tory as far as I can see, so that leaves 316:312.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The deputy speakers don't vote normally, but they don't get an uncontested election like the speaker does, so they're still political. Push comes to shove, I'd be getting my deputies in the lobby for me.

Either way, the tories don't need the DUP to do anything other than abstain, numbers-wise. Politically, having already announced their supply and confidence agreement, it would be very damaging. It could bring down May, if not the whole govt.

 

[brogdale]

That already included the speaker, but Labour has two deputies as against one tory as far as I can see, so that leaves 316:312.

That's my calculation based upon a complete DUP abstention and assuming no pairings etc.
Vote to take place next week.

 

[brogdale]

The deputy speakers don't vote normally, but they don't get an uncontested election like the speaker does, so they're still political. Push comes to shove, I'd be getting my deputies in the lobby for me.

Not sure of 'rules'/convention here. Worth looking up.

 

[8den]

Only if they're idiots. This is an absurd game of chicken. The DUP in some ways have more to lose than the Tories. The Tories can lick their wounds and come back in the next election. If the DUP let Corbyn in, and are seen to let Corbyn in, they could be finished in a few years' time.

Right at the beginning of this, I thought the DUP were bound to overplay their hand. And sure enough, that is what they are doing. They are not equals in this negotiation, but are acting as if they were. They're fools.

Mostly agree with this. Last time the Unionists were in power in Westminster, it was the early 90s, the likelihood of the DUP playing such a key role on the world stage again is remote.

The Tories over played their hand they assumed the DUP would join in because of arrogance or blind panic. Now the DUP is over playing their hand, but at the same time they have the Tories over a barrel and maybe just don't give a fuck.

We don't forget that, and no-one does, but the whole "getting lucky" is not fun, not good. DUP is quite scary.

My own sneaky thoughts are that the LibDems will walk back in, saying "Oh we are even nicer to the Tories than the DUP, and we have even got as much as twelve M.P.s, which makes us really popular and important."

A bit of fluffy television chat things ... and soon it will be sold to us as "Oh, at least it's not that scary mad DUP in charge now, eh? It's just the Tories and their followers in power.

And on we go again.

Can't see it particularly if Vince Cable gets elected leader. To commit political suicide once in your career...but twice?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not sure of 'rules'/convention here. Worth looking up.

Convention is that they don't vote. But they are properly elected, unlike the speaker, against whom the main parties do not field candidates.

 

[agricola]

I'm failing to see how, in the absence of any agreement, the DUP could do anything other than abstain...otherwise...what's the point; the vermin would know that they could rely on them anyway. I'd imagine that the creationists would like to give May a bit of a fright...a taste of what would be unless she agrees to start shovelling the £bns across the Celtic Sea.

I appreciate this has probably been said already but there is always the possibility that senior Tories are pressing the DUP not to agree a deal; the inevitable reaction of the Crown would be to look to the next most likely person to form a Government - which would of course be a senior Tory, backed by the DUP. The Tories can then defenestrate May without the unpleasantness of a leadership election.

 

[eoin_k]

Anyone know of precedent for someone other than a party leader being invited to form a government.

 

[brogdale]

Convention is that they don't vote. But they are properly elected, unlike the speaker, against whom the main parties do not field candidates.

Vermin would be foolish to try testing such convention...however close they felt the vote, if there's 2 LP deps to their 1.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Vermin would be foolish to try testing such convention...however close they felt the vote, if there's 2 LP deps to their 1.

Weirdly, in the House of Lords, the deputies can and do vote. It's a stupid system we have. They would have a mandate to vote, though, which would be the argument.

 

[brogdale]

I appreciate this has probably been said already but there is always the possibility that senior Tories are pressing the DUP not to agree a deal; the inevitable reaction of the Crown would be to look to the next most likely person to form a Government - which would of course be a senior Tory, backed by the DUP. The Tories can then defenestrate May without the unpleasantness of a leadership election.

Doesn't (that word again) convention say that the incumbent having been given the opportunity to form an administration, and failed, the Monarch would then invite the leader of HMLO to have a punt?

 

[agricola]

Anyone know of precedent for someone other than a party leader being invited to form a government.

Lots of them - Gladstone in 1880, the Duke of Wellington in 1828, MacDonald in 1931, Churchill in 1940.

 

[killer b]

Doesn't (that word again) convention say that the incumbent having been given the opportunity to form an administration, and failed, the Monarch would then invite the leader of HMLO to have a punt?

yes. anything else is fantasy.