I put forward a thought experiment as it is just that. It's based upon a thought I had. Nothing more.
Sigh...
I put forward a thought experiment as it is just that. It's based upon a thought I had. Nothing more.
I've completely lost track of understanding it all and I'm beginning to panic a bit, anyone else feel like this?
I've completely lost track of understanding it all and I'm beginning to panic a bit, anyone else feel like this?
Not at the moment but regardless how I'm feeling - it's totally valid for you to feel that.
What might help?
It's this Indian variant thing that's confusing me I think. I sort of feel like how I felt in early March 2020 (and then again in the autumn) when it felt like everyone was sleepwalking towards doom but then I'm fairly sure that's not what's going to happen this time because we have vaccines. But then there's all this stuff about booster vaccines which is worrying me and the fact that even if you are vaccinated it's not 100% effective? But I can't figure out how worried to be about that?Reading Sunray’s thought experiment ideas probably isn’t helping
I’m feeling pretty chipper at the moment. The next few weeks will be important as the impact of the India variant is determined. I’m trying to stay positive and plan to go to a pub tomorrow for the first time in over a year.
thanks elbows, do you mean that as in the risk of a third wave? I think I'm just confused about whether there's another one coming or not and it's the unknown that's freaking me out. Do I just have to accept that for now everything is unknown?Its also understandable if some are feeling anxious because the government have passed the buck back to 'personal responsibility'. Although I'd say that regardless of how draconian the rules were at any point, its always been about how everyone behaves anyway.
Risk is currently still lower than the moments of maximum danger that previous waves offered. Unless you are somewhere where case numbers have gone in alarming direction or where specific variants of concern have been highlighted locally, this is supposed to be a stage where people can somewhat recharge their mental batteries.
I could have sworn there was a lockdown as well or something.
thanks elbows, do you mean that as in the risk of a third wave? I think I'm just confused about whether there's another one coming or not and it's the unknown that's freaking me out. Do I just have to accept that for now everything is unknown?
This latest lockdown was nowhere near as tight as the first one, yet numbers fell even more rapidly, despite the Kent variant that is much more transmissible than the original. They also fell without the benefit of summer and seasonality, which began early last year in terms of higher temperatures, and has barely even started yet, and yet we are at similar levels of cases, deaths and hospital admissions at the moment as we were last mid-summer. Why play down what the vaccines have achieved? Of course the lockdown helped, and hat's not to say that other restrictions MIGHT be needed again (though I fucking pray not for a thousand reasons), but the vaccines have helped massively, not just here but in the USA too, and elsewhere (Israel being the most prominent example so far). It's fucking stupid and pretty damn ignorant to try and claim otherwise.
PHE estimates to 9 May 2021 based on the direct effect of vaccination and vaccine coverage rates, are that around 39,100 hospitalisations have been prevented in those aged 65 years and over in England (approximately 4,700 admissions in those aged 65 to 74, 15,400 in those aged 75 to 84, and 19,000 in those aged 85 and over) as a result of the vaccination programme (Figure 8). There is increasing evidence that vaccines prevent infection and transmission. The indirect effects of the vaccination programme will not be incorporated in this analysis, therefore the figure of 39,100 hospitalisations averted is likely to be an underestimate.
PHE estimates to 9 May 2021 based on the direct effect of vaccination and vaccine coverage rates, are that that 11,100 deaths were averted in individuals aged 80 years and older, 1,600 in individuals aged 70 to 79 and 300 in individuals aged 60 to 69 years giving a total of 13,000 deaths averted in individuals aged 60 years or older in England (Figure 9). There is increasing evidence that vaccines prevent infection and transmission. The indirect effects of the vaccination programme will not be incorporated in this analysis, therefore the figure of 13,000 deaths averted is likely to be an underestimate.
Combination of lockdown/other behavioural changes, the number of people who still had immunity via infection in the first wave, number of vulnerable people that had already died the first time, and very much improved hospital infection control (not universal, better in some hospitals than others), and also a different approach to discharge into care homes and other matters that reduced the care home wave size in the second wave compared to the first.
But yes, also vaccinations. Impossible to say quite how acurate various attempts to estimate the real impact of this have been so far, but at the very least such things offer some clues and sense of how much goof vaccines may already have done. I will fish out some details shortly.
No idea what his stance was on most things to be honest, most of his revelations so far have not been about his own opinions. A lot of what he will say about pre-first wave cockups is already known, less so about what he will reveal about the cockups before/during the second wave. I'm sure I'll have plenty to say about it.
Anyway here are the vaccine-related numbers I was on about. These are from Public health England and are only estimates but they still offer some sense of how much good the vaccines are already though to have done
Yes, all those other factors will have fed into the current levels of infection too, it's obviously a combination of things. It just pisses me off whenever people seem to deliberately play down the effectiveness of vaccines (both on social media and the mainstream media), though maybe I'm just misinterpreting what they're trying to say sometimes. They work. We know they work. Of course they're not 100%, but they were never expected to be.
How exactly will the booster jabs play into that? Will they just be another dose of the current stuff, or will they have enough time to tweak them against the Indian variant by the autumn when they seem to want to start administering them?
It gets all complicated, there are lots of factors. I started reading about how they were going to figure all this stuff out longer term, but the document contained a lot of detail and its mostly questions rather than answers at this stage.
Certainly there were recent stories about how they are starting a trial involving boosters. I forgot the detail, eg whether its looking at giving people a different brand of vaccine compared to the one they had for their first and second dose.
I dont know quite how quickly they expect to be able to adjust the vaccines to include details from newer variants rather than the original Wuhan strain.
Moderna mRNA-1273 has already been adapted and new versions, one specifically targeting E484K based variants (eg B.1.351, P.1) and another multivalent (targeting both ancestral variants, ie based around D614G, and more recent E484K variants), are already in clinical trials (promising results from phase II thus far - ie appropriate antibody responses have been measured). Takes less than a month to produce trial samples. The details of accelerating regulatory approval are still being thrashed out and then there is the delay in switching and ramping up industrial production.Just saw something on Sky News' website saying 'boosters won't be given until 2022,' but the facts behind that must be buried somewhere in their live update thing. I suspect they don't actually know how quickly they'll be able to adjust things yet either! Guess we'll see in due course.
Just saw something on Sky News' website saying 'boosters won't be given until 2022,' but the facts behind that must be buried somewhere in their live update thing. I suspect they don't actually know how quickly they'll be able to adjust things yet either! Guess we'll see in due course.
The kabbess was due her jab tomorrow (having had to book it originally about three weeks in advance due to a lack of slots) but got a text last night saying the appointment had been cancelled. Fine, she rebooked it and there was actually a slot on Friday. But this means she had to rebook her second appointment too, whence this post.
She had the option to book a second jab as early as mid-July (something like six or seven weeks’ time). However, she is more interested in the reports saying that twelve weeks gives better antibody protection and so delayed her second appointment for the full twelve weeks. I was less convinced that this was a smart move, given that we know that the Indian variant really needs you to be double-jabbed ASAP. Any views on who was right?
The kabbess was due her jab tomorrow (having had to book it originally about three weeks in advance due to a lack of slots) but got a text last night saying the appointment had been cancelled. Fine, she rebooked it and there was actually a slot on Friday. But this means she had to rebook her second appointment too, whence this post.
She had the option to book a second jab as early as mid-July (something like six or seven weeks’ time). However, she is more interested in the reports saying that twelve weeks gives better antibody protection and so delayed her second appointment for the full twelve weeks. I was less convinced that this was a smart move, given that we know that the Indian variant really needs you to be double-jabbed ASAP. Any views on who was right?
I can't really see social distancing ending on 21/6. That not only entails everyone no longer wearing masks, but moving into closer proximity (sitting in the adjacent seat on buses again, currently not allowed, for example).The headline is misleading but the detail within is really just 'the proof of the pudding is in the eating' so isnt really wrong. Its part of what I've been trying to describe in recent posts, part of the reason why I've started going on about herd immunity again, and part of the uncertainty about the size of a third wave. A third wave of infections that is not accompanied by a sizeable third wave of hospital admissions is exactly the sort of moment we'd expect authorities to declare victory of some form or another, although as usual there is plenty of tedious detail that could still make that inappropriate or premature.
And to be clear, the pandemic being over wont mean that people never have to think about this virus again, but it will be different to the acute horror we've faced since early 2020. Although moments that still resemble that are still expected via future epidemics.