Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Your sense of timing is off. We havent finished the phase of easing restrictions yet, we have not returned to baseline normal behaviour which would allow the virus to spread with its maximum potential. At this stage all we need are signs of the situation growing worse in a couple of locations. Those signs are present, and then it becomes about more complicated detail of exact scale, and waiting to see if the same pattern happens in other locations.

There is no doubt that vaccinations have altered the picture of population susceptibility, and that this is one of the major inputs into modelling of what sort of sized waves to expect, and when. Thats extremely good news, but again the devil is in the detail, and some aspects of the vaccine success can actually lead to complacency and poor analysis of the current situation and risk. The key question is whether the level of immunity in the population, via previous infections and the vaccine programme, is enough to prevent a large wave from developing in the coming months.

Put it this way: Vaccines already given would be expected to change the timing, pace etc of the development of a subsequent wave. Therefore you should not be using the speed at which the last wave developed, in a pre-vaccine era, in order to conclude that the Indian variant is of no concern because it hasnt exploded everywhere yet. Yes it is possible that a combo of vaccines given already and enough people taking things seriously will be enough to keep a subsequent wave modest or barely visible. But it is simply too soon to make that claim. As I keep saying, the modelling implied a third wave might arrive in July, so there is absolutely no way I can be reassured before then.

 

[elbows]

Having reread what was said on this thread at the time 9March 2020), I dont feel the need to go all through the details of Cummings testimony again now, it was quite well covered by outsiders like us at the time, regardless of the lack of insider knowledge.

However in terms of the claims about early first wave mistakes by the experts, and Johnsons second wave errors costing tens of thousands of lives, I do feel the need to post this. Again its obvious and hardly needed confirmation again now, but here it is anyway:

SAGE expert: 'Cummings is right that UK needed earlier lockdown last autumn' | ITV News

SAGE expert John Edmunds admitted he was 'disappointed' Boris Johnson did not follow his advice in September last year. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

Also note:

Asked of Johnson should fully unlock the UK in June, Dr Edmund said: "No... it looks a little bit risky. The Indian variant is taking off in a number of places. Luckily, we’ve still got low levels but it is concerning.

"And we are still not back to normal. We're still at less than half of our normal contact patterns at the moment. So I think that is helping to keep the lid on it, to some extent."

 

[elbows]

Oh no, what a combination.....

Following his appearance in the Commons earlier, Health Secretary Matt Hancock will be leading a Downing Street press conference about the pandemic at 17:00 BST.

He will be joined by Dr Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency.

 

[elbows]

The weekly surveillance report continues to not show anything highly dramatic, although people may still want to take a look at it if they are interested in cases by age group or stuff to do with the vaccination programme and antibodies from infection and vaccination estimated via blood donor sampling,

Since I tend to focus on any warning signs more than good news, here is the number of outbreak incidents reported graph.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/989845/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w21.pdf

 

[glitch hiker]

3542 cases today. I believe that's a further increase on yesterday. Seems like a definite trend is manifesting.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yep, new cases up 18% in the last 7 days, more worrying is patients admitted to hospital have gone up 10.8%, fuck!

None of this is looking good, I know it's from small numbers, but we all know how small numbers can become big very quickly.

The increase in patients admitted to hospital is almost double those reported yesterday.

 

[elbows]

Even Johnson still has 'we may need to wait' in his vague messaging.

Covid: Boris Johnson says England may need to wait to end restrictions

But Boris Johnson says he sees nothing "currently in the data" to suggest unlocking will have to be delayed.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

The increase in patients admitted to hospital is almost double those reported yesterday.

I'm not sure exactly what you are referring to. Here are some of the recent daily numbers for UK hospital admissions. Although since they are UK totals they are lagging behind as some nations data is further behind than others when it comes to this measure. I'll start graphing English regional hospital admissions again soon.

 

[sojourner]

Oh ffs. I'm trying to book a few days off to visit my lass in Scotland - this is the last bastard thing I want to see

 

[Elpenor]

So we are definitely in potential third wave territory?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Even Johnson still has 'we may need to wait' in his vague messaging.

Covid: Boris Johnson says England may need to wait to end restrictions

But Boris Johnson says he sees nothing "currently in the data" to suggest unlocking will have to be delayed.

www.bbc.co.uk

They changed that headline quickly, 8 minutes earlier the headline on that article was -

Covid: Nothing in data to stop England's unlocking on 21 June - Johnson​

 

[elbows]

So we are definitely in potential third wave territory?

Sort of but maybe not how you mean.

Modelling implied that the potential will be there for some time, regardless of the very latest data or fears on any given week or whatever happens with variants. Its a waiting game and there remains a high degree of uncertainty. There are some warning signs, but it was always going to be a waiting game at this stage, once we got to step 3 of unlocking (the May unlocking that already happened).

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'm not sure exactly what you are referring to. Here are some of the recent daily numbers for UK hospital admissions. Although since they are UK totals they are lagging behind as some nations data is further behind than others when it comes to this measure. I'll start graphing English regional hospital admissions again soon.

The rate of increase in hospital admissions over the last 7-days reported today & covering up to 23rd May being up 19.9%, yesterday it was up 'only' 10.8% covering up to 22nd May.

 

[Elpenor]

Oh well, I don’t think my life is very different whether we are lockdowned or not.

 

[elbows]

The rate of increase in hospital admissions over the last 7-days reported today & covering up to 23rd May being up 19.9%, yesterday it was up 'only' 10.8% covering up to 22nd May.

I dont know how helpful I find those particular figures during periods where actual underlying numbers are bumping along the bottom end of things.

For example one days abnormally low figures (which can happen for a number of reasons) can skew some rolling indicators of change over time.

Judge for yourself using these graphs that apply to England NHS figures rather than the whole of the UK. Data is slightly more recent than some of the dashboard figures.

 

[elbows]

They changed that headline quickly, 8 minutes earlier the headline on that article was -

Covid: Nothing in data to stop England's unlocking on 21 June - Johnson​

Typical! Have to watch the framing and the way it changes, especially with the BBC!

 

[elbows]

Now if on the other hand I wanted to find hospital daily admissions/diagnoses data that was more obviously alarming, I would have to zoom into a specific trust such as the Bolton NHS Foundation Trust.:



Can people find any others that are showing that trend? Official dashboard has this weeks per-trust data on it now (admissions up to May 23rd) so no messing around with spreadsheets is required.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=Bolton%20NHS%20Foundation%20Trust

 

[nagapie]

So compared to other post lockdowns, how much impact do the vaccines seem to be having or too early to tell?

 

[elbows]

So compared to other post lockdowns, how much impact do the vaccines seem to be having or too early to tell?

Weekly estimates are given for how many hospitalisations and deaths they think have been prevented by vaccination. A new one came out today. They think its an underestimate because they are not taking into account vaccines effect on transmission yet.

PHE estimates that 13,200 deaths have now been prevented in people aged 60 years or older in England up to 13 May 2021 (11,200 deaths in individuals aged 80 years and older, 1,700 in individuals aged 70 to 79 and 300 in individuals aged 60 to 69 years).

Estimates also indicate that the vaccination programme has prevented around 39,700 hospitalisations in those aged 65 years and over in England (approximately 4,900 admissions in those aged 65 to 74, 15,600 in those aged 75 to 84 and 19,200 in those aged 85 and over).

COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report published

National coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine surveillance report, including estimated number of hospitalisations and deaths prevented.

www.gov.uk

COVID-19 vaccine surveillance reports (weeks 19 to 38)

Data on the real-world effectiveness and impact of the COVID-19 vaccines.

www.gov.uk

The method for analysing the approximate number of deaths and hospitalisations prevented by the vaccine programme now takes into account the impact of both first and second doses, due to more data being available. However, it does not include the impact of vaccination on transmission, therefore the true impact of the vaccination programme is likely to be even greater.

Which isnt quite the same as judging post-lockdown picture to the previous one. But also consider that even without the India variant, we had the higher transmission fromt he Kent variant to deal with this time. I havent tried to do an analysis. Off the top of my head we havent got daily hospital admissions quite as low as was eventually achieved last summer, but I havent checked properly

 

[elbows]

Hancock says in press conference that at least half and possibly as many as three quarters of new cases are of the India variant.

I havent had a chance to study that data yet, hopefully I quoted him properly, just tuned in as he was saying it.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Hancock says in press conference that at least half and possibly as many as three quarters of new cases are of the India variant.

I havent had a chance to study that data yet, hopefully I quoted him properly, just tuned in as he was saying it.

You did.

 

[elbows]

Cheers. Numbers here: Covid Mutations

 

[Calamity1971]

Go out there and just bang on about how great we are at doing vaccines. Going on mute till questions from press.

 

[elbows]

Hancock was able to lie a bit about vaccine effectiveness against India variant, but Harries had to acknowledge the somewhat more complex picture shown by the provisional figures so far. Thanks Pete of the public for the question!

 

[Numbers]

Cheers. Numbers here: Covid Mutations

I read that like I was a U75 Covid Mutation

 

[elbows]

I read that like I was a U75 Covid Mutation

Sorry about that. At least you dont have people coughing into you like I do via my nickname!

 

[elbows]

I dont blame the press for going after him over the hospital->care home testing detail, thats the one I'd have picked on too.

 

[elbows]

He's had to resort to "my recollection of events".

 

[elbows]

What a shameless fuck he is. When he looks back, he think of all the hard work he did to get a testing system in place. And his family suffered Covid death too dont you know.

 

[elbows]

Harries got in on the family deaths club too, and then went on about how low a proportion of care home deaths were caused via the hospital route. Its true that care home staff not being tested either was thought to be a large factor, but I'm still not impressed.