LDC
On est tous des pangolins
No, that is allowed. That's guidance not law.
IME stuff has changed dramatically already with plenty of people massively easing up on all sorts of rules and guidance.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
IME stuff has changed dramatically already with plenty of people massively easing up on all sorts of rules and guidance.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
It is getting more common for my buses to full to the point were not everyone can get a seat without having to sit next to someone.
Seems to be made worse a lot of the time by collage students sitting downstairs instead of upstairs meaning that older people either have to struggle with the stairs or sit next to someone. I don't want to just go on about young people. But I have seen them hugging their mates at the bus stop then large groups of 10+ getting on and all sitting in the already pretty full bottom deck while the top one is more or less empty.
This morning and old guy with a stick asked someone (not a student in this case) to move from the priority seating and they refused so he just sat next to them.
Today was also the only time I have seen someone get kicked of a bus for not wearing a mask. Pretty eventful morning as bus trips go.
2hats
Dust.
Astrazeneca: likely the optimum is around 12±2 weeks dosing interval and then 'full' protection is probably up to 12 weeks after that (6 months after the first dose). Though this will generally vary with age and immune function. Little data on seropositives here (yet).
Either mRNA: optimum dosing interval may be around 6-8 weeks. 'Full' protection by around 3 weeks after second dose. For seropositives it would appear that 'beyond sufficient' protection kicks in by around two weeks after one dose (possibly earlier).
Though bear in mind there is no comprehensive study into variation of dosing intervals and subsequent longitudinal immune response for any of the vaccines (yet). Also note that something less than 'full' protection might be 'sufficient' ('full', whatever that is, being your individual, maximal response).
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
The speculation is that we’re going back into Level 4 (the top tier lockdown in Scotland).
The rest of Scotland is Level 2 now. We’ve been kept in Level 3.
20Bees
Well-Known Member
Youngest and her partner are both 29 and their clinic lets anyone registered with a Derby GP book. They both had Pfizer last week (no side effects at all) and second jabs are after 11 weeks. When they booked their first ones the Gov website was only for those over 34.
Eldest is 34 and had hers (AZ) through work, 11week interval, my son lives in China and had his two (Sinovac), four weeks apart. It’ll be interesting to see the criteria for autumn boosters across the various vaccines and age groups.
Shit. My sister was optimistically hoping last night you were about to go back down to 2.View attachment 270319
The speculation is that we’re going back into Level 4 (the top tier lockdown in Scotland).
The rest of Scotland is Level 2 now. We’ve been kept in Level 3.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
The speculation is that we’re going back into Level 4 (the top tier lockdown in Scotland).
The rest of Scotland is Level 2 now. We’ve been kept in Level 3.
Any speculation about other areas of Scotland? My daughter's planning to be in Edinburgh next week.
I'm sure everyone else knows, but for the first time in a long while we're back to (just over) 3k cases a day.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Yep, new cases up 18% in the last 7 days, more worrying is patients admitted to hospital have gone up 10.8%, fuck!
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Edinburgh seems OK. The problem areas now are Glasgow, Clackmannan, East Renfrewshire and Midlothian. Only Glasgow is Level 3, the others are all currently in Level 2 but apparently getting close to level 4 threshold.
However I’m not an epidemiologist, but it’s worth noting that’s cases. Deaths are not going up.
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
Well, deaths tend to follow hospitalisations which follow cases. How much effect the vaccination programme has on those last two stages is the big question, I guess.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Someone seems to have broken the covid dashboard, a few days ago we only had one case in a week, with a population of just over 110k, hence the 7-day rolling rate of 0.9 per 100k shown below.
Today it reports we have had 9 cases in the last 7-days, which is a 800% increase, yet it shows an increase of 0.0%.
Today it reports we have had 9 cases in the last 7-days, which is a 800% increase, yet it shows an increase of 0.0%.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
David Clapson
Well-Known Member
I don't think Cummings' performance today will affect Johnson much. Here's an excellent summary of the hearing by Ian Dunt: Dominic Cummings's evidence was a story of liars - told by a liar
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Yes at the time it felt very much like yet another word he, or rather everyone else, would have to eat sooner or later.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I suppose it would be too much too hope that this is because giving % increases (or decreases) of very small numbers does not make sense.Someone seems to have broken the covid dashboard, a few days ago we only had one case in a week, with a population of just over 110k, hence the 7-day rolling rate of 0.9 per 100k shown below.
Today it reports we have had 9 cases in the last 7-days, which is a 800% increase, yet it shows an increase of 0.0%.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
No, they have always recorded increases & decreases before, even with small numbers.
elbows
Well-Known Member
No, they have always recorded increases & decreases before, even with small numbers.
I cant look into this properly for you because they use two different sorts of figures which complicates matters:
The current daily number of 6 and last 7 days number of 9 is number of positives by reporting date.
Also the rate per 100,000 people is based on specimen date, not reporting date, and covers a somewhat different date range (since last 5 days numbers by specimen date are considered incomplete, more will be reported later).
When I go to the main cases page and the search for and select Worthing from the dropdown, I can see daily numbers. But there are by specimen date, not reporting date. And this stops me performing the required exercise - if I could easily see the table showing cases there per day by reporting date, then I would be able to add up how many cases were reported in the previous period which was 13th-19th May. Because the most likely explanation for what you are seeing is that actually 9 cases were reported during both 13th-19th May and 20th-26th May, making a change of 0 and a percentage change of 0.
I cannot do that unless I find the historical daily reporting figures, but I can have a guess. We know that it takes some days between the actual specimen date and the figures being reported. There were only a couple of cases by specimen date between 13th-19th of May. But allowing for the lag I need to look back a little further, and there is a 4, and some 2's by specimen date in the period 9th-12th May. So it wouldnt surprise me at all if 9 were reported in period 13th-19th May!
edited to add - this link should go straight to the main cases page for Worthing that I am speaking about, and then if you click on the data tab for the first graph, you'll see the cases by specimen date that I was on about. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Worthing
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Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
I expected it to be a lot worse by now, I was fully behind a two week delay to the reopening, there was an inevitability that infections were going up. But nothing yet.
Boris 'Bodies' Johnson has no intention of doing anything on the 17th of June regardless. So all these numbers are largely academic.
Boris 'Bodies' Johnson has no intention of doing anything on the 17th of June regardless. So all these numbers are largely academic.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
elbows
Well-Known Member
By the way I dont know why they dont show the cases by reporting date when we zoom into to smaller regions, its present on the overall UK cases page, and the data is in the system, just not exposed.
I could collect it for particular places each day if I went in every day and recorded the number reported for that day for that area that is shown in the daily summary areas. But thats rather tedious. I might be able to get it via the API, but havent bothered to do any web programming during this pandemic. I havent even looked for ages at what other websites might be consuming and displaying the dashboard data.
I could collect it for particular places each day if I went in every day and recorded the number reported for that day for that area that is shown in the daily summary areas. But thats rather tedious. I might be able to get it via the API, but havent bothered to do any web programming during this pandemic. I havent even looked for ages at what other websites might be consuming and displaying the dashboard data.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Nothing yet?
The B 1.1.7 was 1st detected in early December. This variant took ~4-5 weeks to outcompete the variant we already had. Eventually killing 1200 a day at its peak and we were in a fairly comprehensive national lockdown.
India was put on the red list on the 23rd of April. B 1.617 was Detected in February 2021, 60% more transmissible, we are three months into its appearance. The red list was over a month ago, so say 5-6 weeks from more than a few isolated cases. According to Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK there are 115 people a day going to hospital. If literally, everyone who went to hospital started dying that would be bad but still a long way below January's figures. It's likely most will recover so the current numbers still look positive, so far. No lockdown to suppress this variant either. Though locking down Bolton for two weeks might be a good idea.
How long do I have to wait?
elbows
Well-Known Member
You should explore more of the B.1.1.7 timing details if you want to attempt that sort of analysis. Because resting on 'early December' as a starting point is a bad mistake.
en.wikipedia.org
SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant - Wikipedia
I really want to go and see my family -- it's been a lonely year -- but seems too early to make any plans just yet.
(I'd be doing Edinburghish and Glasgow.)
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah I went through all the relevant period on this thread last night, rereading and skimming and lining things up with Cummings version of events and reminding myself just how much we knew or could guess at the time. Someone posted that very tweet here at the time, and the timing was great since the tweet was from March 10th 2020 and was posted here on the 11th. The useless plan A that inspired such tweets was dead within days,
maomao
普費斯
Posted on this thread 11th March 2020.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
I did. That is the very doc I read, very low levels of possible earlier genetic lineage in September. But there is clear evidence that it started to become a problem in early December. 4 weeks later was chaos. We're a long way from that right now. If you take detection as your starting point, September-Jan is 4 months.You should explore more of the B.1.1.7 timing details if you want to attempt that sort of analysis. Because resting on 'early December' as a starting point is a bad mistake.
SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant - Wikipedia
The B 1617 variant was detected in India in December 2020. As December-February are great times to visit India due to the med like climate, highly likely it was already here in January at very low levels. It was first detected in the UK in February, also 4 months ago.
It appears we are standing at the very same place chronologically as we were in January locked away in our houses. With some obvious differences.
115 v 3500 daily hospitalizations.
No lockdown v Lockdown
Protection v A wing and a prayer
Lots of hand wringing and worry going on. At what point do we breathe a sigh of relief on this variant? Or alternatively at what point do we start buying more loo roll than we need?
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