teuchter
je suis teuchter
Remember how we did this last year too, without any vaccines? And then do you remember what happened next?
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
Analysis of that sort of data is certainly one of the things authorities will do in order to find good or bad news.
We need to be slightly careful with it because even in the pre-vaccine era the common trend when a wave was arriving was for cases to rise in the younger age groups before rising notably in order age groups. And its a shame that the age breakdown on the main dashboard is split in a fairly crude way, and we know that plenty of hospital admissions have happened in the past in the middle aged group. The heatmap provides a better breakdown, but I dont tend to post those here.
Here is the Bolton graph from the main dashboard. Note the initially similar pattern last summer, but that as time goes on this time around we are seeing a bigger gap than that seen in the pre-vaccine era of waves. So yes there is something here, but I am cautious about how far to stretch it at right this moment. The government will be keen to daw further atention to this as soon as they can, which might not be far away.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Also although I am rusty about some of the small details of herd immunity and its expected impact, I dont think seeing great big case rate leaps in the younger age groups like the one shown in the recent part of that Bolton graphs is something they'd expect to see if overall levels of population immunity had hit the desired level.
elbows
Well-Known Member
My build in capacity to be boring is really amplified by the failure of some to learn even the most basic things from really quite recent history. Good thing I am going to be a bit busy with other stuff tomorrow, a much needed break! Apart from the Cummings stuff which I will have to squeeze in somewhere even if I cant watch it live, does anybody know what time that is scheduled for?
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
No.
From looking at the numbers on a daily basis, watching and reading solid scientific papers and information e.g. from the ONS which publish stuff that is a little out of date but fairly interesting. They do national covid sampling to give some evidence on COVID prevalence in the UK. Here is the latest for your perusal Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
And yes it's an opinion, but it's hard to argue that the numbers are low and we and the USA aren't even remotely close to the 75% fully vaccinated.
The USA is an interesting case too, they didn't lock down like here. Some red states were pretty much open for business the whole time. Yet they are experiencing the same drop off in numbers as we are, why is this?
Texas isn't getting to 50% vaccinated probably ever.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
9 days? But do you really think that the 17th of May was some sort of grand opening?
You are a fool if you think this. From the 12th of April, this very cautions house suddenly couldn't take it any longer and had parties every weekend for the whole month. I can guarantee this was replicated across the UK as it was fucking freezing and being outdoors at 12 am was abandoned.
bimble
floofy
Are you saying that the low numbers in the US are because of vaccination?
I haven't got an answer as to why there are low numbers but I'm just not following your logic.
Things like this suggest to me that vaccination is not the end of the story:
The Seychelles is the most vaccinated nation on Earth. But Covid has surged
The Seychelles is causing concern for world health experts after a rise of Covid-19 cases among fully vaccinated individuals.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The complex realities of behavour and mixing, as a result of gradual easing of restrictions over multiple steps, is somewhat visible in google mobility data. There is a fair amount of variation by area too.
COVID-19 Community Mobility Report
See how your community is moving around differently due to COVID-19
www.google.com
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
FYI: The Seychelles used the Sinopharm vaccine? I'm feeling it's not the best. Not approved in any western country. Unlikely to ever be approved. WHO experts voice "very low confidence" in some Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccine data
I'm saying we undervalue vaccines. We should be more keenly aware of their power to halt a viral pandemic in its tracks. Even modest numbers of vaccinations appear to have dulled COVID's blade.
Saying we need 75% of everyone to have the full course for it to be nationally effective isn't what has happened. I was fully expecting numbers to explode post the 12th but nothing.
Expressed in percentages things look bad. For instance, Hackney has had a shocking 300% rise in hospital admissions for COVID in the last 7 days. From 1 to 4.
The USA have one dose vaccinated an incredible 163,907,827 people in a few months (many millions every day) many of those were the most vulnerable and likely to get very sick and die.
This appears to have been enough barring a variant that can escape the immune system.
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MrSki
Who am I to say you're wrong
I think it is a 9.30am kick-off.
bimble
floofy
Sunray i genuinely want you to be right. I am a bit of a pessimist by nature when it comes to 'the world' and should bear that in mind when i think about this. It's the news from India through April that has spooked the hell out of me, the speed and ferocity of it ripping through families, i didn't recognise these stories from our first or second waves, pre vaccine.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Here's a thought I had the other day. While we wring out hands with worry about vaccine escape due to mutations of this virus.
Could a variant arise that is highly contagious yet harmless with no symptoms yet providing lifelong immunity to COVID-19?
As some vaccines are based on live viruses, this has to be a possibility, no?
Could this actually be the reason we experienced the downward trends last summer?
Could a variant arise that is highly contagious yet harmless with no symptoms yet providing lifelong immunity to COVID-19?
As some vaccines are based on live viruses, this has to be a possibility, no?
Could this actually be the reason we experienced the downward trends last summer?
bimble
floofy
I think your sunny version of the virus would have been noticed, if it was so popular that it conferred herd immunity by stealth. We'd be exporting it for £££ in a post-brexit celebration of our world beatingness, instead of the kent variant which was less excellent.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
163,907,827 million people would be incredible, considering their population is under 333 million.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
I understand.
India is a tragedy that is beyond our understanding. What is happening in India is partly down to living conditions and quality of health care. We live in a cosy blanket NHS land where you break something and you get whisked off to hospital, back home the next day fully sorted out with some strong pain killers in hand. We can social distance.
This is how packed Indian cities can get.
Covid crisis grips crowded Kolkata
Kolkata, one of the most densely-populated cities in India, hasn't escaped the Covid-19 surge.
www.bbc.co.uk
Social distancing?
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Oops fixed.163,907,827 million people would be incredible, considering their population is under 333 million.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
How about if it was just 1.1:1 contagious as the 1st one to hit our shores but wasn't detected on a PCR test. You'd not get any symptoms so you'd not go to get tested anyway. Hence the reason for last summers drop then the Kent variant got hold and outcompeted it.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Although the Kent variant had its origins some while before it caused disaster in December, there were very many initial second wave infections and hospitalisations that were caused by a previous version of the virus, not the Kent one. We had a wave bad enough to cause a lockdown before the Kent strain became the dominant strain.
bimble
floofy
We've done this before. I strongly disagree with you that its any particularities of India that are the explanation. Not diet or density or any of it.I understand.
India is a tragedy that is beyond our understanding. What is happening in India is partly down to living conditions and quality of health care. We live in a cosy blanket NHS land where you break something and you get whisked off to hospital, back home the next day fully sorted out with some strong pain killers in hand. We can social distance.
This is how packed Indian cities can get.
Covid crisis grips crowded Kolkata
Kolkata, one of the most densely-populated cities in India, hasn't escaped the Covid-19 surge.www.bbc.co.uk
Social distancing?
Just as it wasn't the particularities of India that explained its miraculous recovery - do you remember that? - a few months ago.
When everyone was speculating that they'd reached herd immunity that was the only explanation.
I know some of the people who have sickened and died there, it's not just infectiousness it's the ferocity of the disease the speed with which they got sick and died that has frightened me.
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Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
I refer you to my thought experiment above. Plus they did a crazy lockdown which we know works quite well against COVID-19.
I disagree. India has a well-known diabetes problem. Many people in India have diabetes but are undiagnosed so are comorbid without knowing it. This is a significant issue Diabetes, infection risk and COVID-19 - PubMed
and it's also causing the Black Fungus epidemic we are now seeing in India as it thrives on elevated sugar levels in the blood.
Interestingly, you probably have black fungus up your nose right now, fortunately, you also have a functioning immune system.
bimble
floofy
The Indian gov did the worst most disastrous lockdown imaginable, 'crazy' is correct, it led to millions crossing the country en masse.
And diabetes is not killing villagers in Bihar.
Your thought experiment - of a benign version of the virus - is your best shot at explaining why they had tiny case numbers and then a catastrophe? Fine. nonsense.
This is not the place for you & me to fight about India.
baldrick
hmmmmm
And Leicester is causing concern again I think. I spent some time on the Coronavirus dashboard today comparing figures from the 7 day rolling avg. Quite a few areas look 'fine' but the numbers are beginning to turn the other way after a period of sustained reduction. Birmingham has 39% more cases than it did the week before (260-something last week vs 179 from week ending 11th).
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes its one of the locations that are on their main list of places of concern due to Indian variant detection/potential.
They will have used a mix of data sources when picking out the places, including the sewage surveillance system that has been used to detect the presence of the variant without having to rely on everyone coming forwards for normal testing.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
I put forward a thought experiment as it is just that. It's based upon a thought I had. Nothing more.
So what is your explanation of their initial escape? I suspect that lockdown has something to do with it, it might have been dumb but it did something.
It probably is diabetes. 10% of Indians are diagnosed diabetic. Many many aren't diagnose and in Bihar I suspect few are. Remember you don't have to be fat to be diabetic. In the western world, there is a 50:50 ratio between fat and skinny people with T2 diabetes. Some people get belly fat, some people get subcutaneous fat. It's the belly fat that's the problem category. How to cure type 2 diabetes – without medication
It doesn't take many people to overwhelm a health system, esp if there isn't one.
Maybe, maybe not.
Trying to guess, without any real evidence, doesn't seem helpful, respectful, or interesting though imo.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
No Evidence?
T2 diabetes as a contributing factor in severe COVID-19 is well established. There are tons of papers out there on this if you cared to check but didn't. Here's one https://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/diacare/early/2020/10/23/dc20-1444.full.pdf
India has a diabetes problem (as does China for the same reasons)
World Diabetes Day: Why is India the World Capital for Diabetes?
India now has a COVID-19 problem. Not a good combination.
No evidence of link between diabetes and high rates of covid in India, I mean.
Having diabetes doesn't make a person more likely to catch covid, as far as I know.
I'm well aware of the implications for people with diabetes after they've caught it, thanks.
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