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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

The basic question is: does the result of a covid test now tell you anything at all about how much of a risk you are to others?
No. They never did give that kind of info! They're a guide, a tool with lots of caveats. Too many variables and as 2hats says you can have a positive test but not an active infection. Possibly negative tests give a false sense of security too.

It's better imo and as you say to err on the side of caution with any cold/flu and avoid contact with others as much as possible. Sadly employers and various institutions don't feel the same.
 
No. They never did give that kind of info! They're a guide, a tool with lots of caveats. Too many variables and as 2hats says you can have a positive test but not an active infection. Possibly negative tests give a false sense of security too.

It's better imo and as you say to err on the side of caution with any cold/flu and avoid contact with others as much as possible. Sadly employers and various institutions don't feel the same.
What about asymptomatic cases? You'd be testing yourself every day if so!
 
I was told that you can tell if you've got flu rather than a really bad cold/chest infection because with flu you actually want to die :(
 
What about asymptomatic cases? You'd be testing yourself every day if so!
Yeah asymptomatic cases are....tricky. I'm not sure if it was ever shown if you were asymptomatic that you were less of an infection risk to others. Presumably you can still shed active virus particles but possibly not as much as someone who is effectively projecting their shed particles far and wide via coughing/sneezing/generalised snotting/other aerosol generating bodily fun.
 
I was told that you can tell if you've got flu rather than a really bad cold/chest infection because with flu you actually want to die :(
I think if COVID has taught ys anything it's that people can and do react differently to infections. We also don't test enough for most people to actually know if they have rhinovirus or influenza a/b or any other virus so I'm not sure anyone could state that as fact one way or the other.

I've been totally knocked out by something before when there were very high cases of influenza but was never actually tested myself so who knows what it was. I think influenza has more ability to knock folk on their arse but I don't think we can rule out milder cases.
 
What about asymptomatic cases? You'd be testing yourself every day if so!

I think it's pretty clear no-one is going to be doing that but I think the tricky one is mild symptoms isn't it. I mean hopefully people have learnt a bit about hauling themselves off their sickbeds and forcing themselves into work but what if you've got a bit of a cough/snotty nose etc?
 
I think it's pretty clear no-one is going to be doing that but I think the tricky one is mild symptoms isn't it. I mean hopefully people have learnt a bit about hauling themselves off their sickbeds and forcing themselves into work but what if you've got a bit of a cough/snotty nose etc?
Yeah a lot of the time I have a sore throat for half a day and then it passes.
 
Arguably they did when the population was unvaccinated.
I think they have only really been to tool to help guide during the pandemic. Why do you feel they gave more info about infectiousness before people were vaccinated? They had the same issues in terms of reliability and accuracy whether people were vaccinated or not. I'm assuming we are talking about antigen tests rather than antibody btw
 
I think they have only really been to tool to help guide during the pandemic. Why do you feel they gave more info about infectiousness before people were vaccinated? They had the same issues in terms of reliability and accuracy whether people were vaccinated or not. I'm assuming we are talking about antigen tests rather than antibody btw
I'm not saying they gave more info about infectiousness - they gave some information about risk to others, because pre-vaccination (as I understood it) getting Covid put you and those you came into contact with at higher risk of severe symptoms, and at higher risk of placing demands on the healthcare service, than other "cold-like" viruses did.
 
My feeling re Covid is that whereas it hasn't gone away, because of vaccination we are not seeing very severe cases in large numbers. It has moved from 'I've got Covid, am I going to die?' to 'Bugger, I've got Covid again'.

Long Covid is causing problems, with the emphasis being on the 'long'. I know a couple of people who have had it for months.

I've given up on trying to educate the 'People have been vaccinated but still caught it' brigade, life is too short.
 
pretty sure I had Covid for the second, possibly third time, towards the end of last year. my mate who I had been out with did the test the next day which was positive and let me know. I didn’t have any tests. only behaviour change was I did not go to a gig that I had planned to. I was feeling under the weather.
I think it's pretty clear no-one is going to be doing that but I think the tricky one is mild symptoms isn't it. I mean hopefully people have learnt a bit about hauling themselves off their sickbeds and forcing themselves into work but what if you've got a bit of a cough/snotty nose etc?
 
I'm not saying they gave more info about infectiousness - they gave some information about risk to others, because pre-vaccination (as I understood it) getting Covid put you and those you came into contact with at higher risk of severe symptoms, and at higher risk of placing demands on the healthcare service, than other "cold-like" viruses did.
The number of people at risk of the worst consequences isnt the same in the vaccination era as it was before but its still plenty of people.

Even the official figures for deaths 'due to' covid in England and Wales show 1500 deaths since the start of June.

And the number of people with Covid in hospital beds in England was well over 3000 during the peak of the latest wave in July. It got on the news, various hospitals reimposed restrictions involving masks.

As my previous posts today probably indicate, it can be hard to make like for like comparisons due to a lack of comparable testing and data for cold-like viruses etc, and of course all the other quibbles that people have reached for since the start are still in effect. But I would certainly caution against developing the sense that the repeated infections and vaccinations have made covid completely equivalent to colds when it comes to either death or healthcare burden. And the timing of greater risk periods isnt the same, because covid hasnt fallen into a tidy seasonal pattern.

As far as I am concerned the only completely safe claim is the self-evident one: The covid burden is clearly not the same as it was in the pre-vaccine era, otherwise we'd never have escaped acute risk of healthcare systems being totally overwhelemed with every wave, and would therefore not have escaped all of the restrictions and dramatic behavioural changes. The number of people infected in vaccine-era waves has often been way, way higher than the numbers infected in the first waves, but the number of people who suffered the most severe consequences has clearly been smaller than in those first few waves. But 'its just a cold with the same consequences as other colds' is too much of a stretch, the current reality sits somewhere in between these two extremes, and clearly closer to the mild end than the pre-vaccine waves end of the consequences spectrum. But I can only say that because the bad end of the spectrum was so very bad, and thats no consolation to those who still suffer the worst consequences in 2024, there are less of them but there is still a meaningful number of them, even in a summer wave.

Its good for people to feel some sense of responsibility when it comes to communicable diseases, it still makes a real difference to some people lives, jobs as carers or health care professions, etc. The stakes are not the same as they were at the start, obviously, and so a proportionate response is not considered to involve the same radical changes to behaviour as it once was. But there are still vulnerable people out there, no matter how many times they are vaccinated. Looking at it from the opposite angle, you are less likely to kill someone by being reckless now than you were in 2020 and 2021. But your actions and inactions can still make a difference to people you dont know and even people you do.
 
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You can look at it the other way around: if you have cold like symptoms and test negative for covid - what does that tell you? Does it tell you that it's ok after all to be in contact with someone who might be vulnerable to covid? Might they not also be vulnerable to all sorts of other viruses that you may or may not have and which might be causing your symptoms?

If a negative covid test doesn't give you the all clear to go ahead and do stuff that would be reckless had you tested positive, then it doesn't seem like much is achieved by taking the test.
 
No. They never did give that kind of info! They're a guide, a tool with lots of caveats. Too many variables and as 2hats says you can have a positive test but not an active infection. Possibly negative tests give a false sense of security too.

It's better imo and as you say to err on the side of caution with any cold/flu and avoid contact with others as much as possible. Sadly employers and various institutions don't feel the same.
One of my colleagues had what he insisted was hayfever a few weeks ago but kept coming to work with it (progressively more streaming eyes and nose, headache, cough, etc). It then ripped through the rest of us over the next ten days while he was better and away on holiday (7 out of a possible 8 with symptoms ranging from the same as above to vomiting, diarrhea, fever, dizziness, tiredness etc). None of us that tested, tested positive. Then two other members of my family and another friend got it and did test positive. Pretty certain we all had Covid, and if first colleague had just taken a few days off work because he was clearly ill, maybe the rest of us would have skipped it.
 
You can look at it the other way around: if you have cold like symptoms and test negative for covid - what does that tell you? Does it tell you that it's ok after all to be in contact with someone who might be vulnerable to covid? Might they not also be vulnerable to all sorts of other viruses that you may or may not have and which might be causing your symptoms?

If a negative covid test doesn't give you the all clear to go ahead and do stuff that would be reckless had you tested positive, then it doesn't seem like much is achieved by taking the test.
Well I suppose you could break that sort of thing dowen into at least 3 sets of factors:

Do the negative consequences of false negatives outweigh the benefits from the proper positives?

What is the risk of the vulnerable catching covid like compared to catching other diseases with comparable symptoms?

What would the effect on behaviours be of no tests being available compared to the behaviours we get with the current testing situation and attitude towards covid testing?


I dont have tidy answers to all of the above, and would generally favour a different societal and economic attitude towards going to work etc when ill anyway, regardless of covid. Certainly several versions of the first question were also something various experts concerned themselves with earlier in the pandemic too, when the stakes were higher and the possibility of mass testing was first being considered.
 
No doubt some people consider the ongoing testing to be a hangover of a previous acute pandemic era, but some of those people didnt have a good sense of how bad that pandemic was or what amout of behavioural modification was pertinent and proportionate. Others may worry about the possibility of the false negatives doing more harm than the good of the proper positives. I havent seen a recent study that would allow me to get a better grip on that dilemma.

Personally if I want to reach for some obvious ongoing positives, they would be along the lines of giving people some sense that they have at least a chance of getting an acurate test result and being able to make sound decisions based on sound info rather than being left with nothing but pure guesswork. And that the ongoing availability of tests at least offers a signal that covid is still to be taken seriously. But sure, there are also some obvious limitations to this, the picture is messy to say the least, and in theory a poorly conceived testing regime could do more harm than good.
 
The diagnostic RAT is just detecting certain fragments of the nucleocapsid (typically around the C terminal domain, but not all do - some diagnostic tests look for protein sequences in envelope and a very small number in spike). You my well still have some active virus many days after signs of infection obviously manifest, but any positive result will (in most cases) simply, increasingly, be triggering off the fragments of (eg) nucleocapsid that your immune system has already chopped up and your body is trying to flush out. It is left as an exercise to the user to make their own mind up as to whether they are still infectious to others around them.
Unfortunately I'm still testing positive about a week after first feeling sick :(
 
I feel like I've gone back in time. Someone in my work setting has tested positive. Masks are on, lounges closed, events cancelled. Do I or don't I wear a mask?
 
I feel like I've gone back in time. Someone in my work setting has tested positive. Masks are on, lounges closed, events cancelled. Do I or don't I wear a mask?
How lucky do you feel ?
How guilty would you feel if you were off sick without having taken precautions ?
I feel very lucky I got to retire in 2020 from the germ infested university where I worked, before I had to make this sort of decision...
 
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