Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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elbows
Well-Known Member
And they are getting Zahawi to deal with this in parliament.
And Labour run the usual risk of taking a stance (withdraw guidance) that I consider inappropriate from an epidemiological point of view. Not that this is necessarily something I can go completely nuts about given how little the governments half-arsed attempt is likely to achieve.
From the BBC live updates page at 12:44: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57237893
And Labour run the usual risk of taking a stance (withdraw guidance) that I consider inappropriate from an epidemiological point of view. Not that this is necessarily something I can go completely nuts about given how little the governments half-arsed attempt is likely to achieve.
From the BBC live updates page at 12:44: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57237893
elbows
Well-Known Member
As expected the laissez-faire pandemic doom sausage is back big time. The vaccination era means the government and the wider establishment have reverted to their standard approach, deadly business as usual. This was always on the cards at some point, its part of what 'learning to live with covid' really means to these shits, but I think they're really pushing their luck by doing it this soon. There is still a chance they will get away with it, but I wouldnt bet on it.
Thats from the 13:20 entry of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57237893
Thats from the 13:20 entry of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57237893
elbows
Well-Known Member
Meanwhile in Bolton:
Thats from the BBC live updates page again, 13:52 entry https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57237893
Thats from the BBC live updates page again, 13:52 entry https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57237893
elbows
Well-Known Member
Plus in regards the doom sausage, herd immunity is part of the rationale again.
Unlike the original plan that died mid March 2020, this time they probably think they can do it. Because modelling implied that the next wave, whatever its size, would be the last significant one and that this particular sharp end of the pandemic would be over by later this year.
Unlike the original plan that aimed to achieve herd immunity via letting a huge proportion of the population get infected, this time its achieved by all the immunity from infection over three waves, plus the immunity acquired via vaccination. Then the idea is we'll have gone past the threshold that is necessary to stop future waves being big enough to overwhelm healthcare nationwide.
Obviously whats missing from this picture is the curveballs that new variants can throw at the picture either now or at any point in future. And a tolerance towards plenty more death this year is required.
Unlike the original plan that died mid March 2020, this time they probably think they can do it. Because modelling implied that the next wave, whatever its size, would be the last significant one and that this particular sharp end of the pandemic would be over by later this year.
Unlike the original plan that aimed to achieve herd immunity via letting a huge proportion of the population get infected, this time its achieved by all the immunity from infection over three waves, plus the immunity acquired via vaccination. Then the idea is we'll have gone past the threshold that is necessary to stop future waves being big enough to overwhelm healthcare nationwide.
Obviously whats missing from this picture is the curveballs that new variants can throw at the picture either now or at any point in future. And a tolerance towards plenty more death this year is required.
Cloo
Banana for scale
With everyone having made lots of nice plans for summer, I presume what will happen is that anyone who gets a covid 19 app or other notification to self isolate but really wants to go to Dave's belated 40th is going to go 'Oh sod it', maybe get a lateral flow test to feel like they're being careful and go anyway.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
There’s a live press conference in Manchester re this : LIVE: Andy Burnham holds latest Greater Manchester Covid press conference
elbows
Well-Known Member
Oh and what I left out of my previous post was the medium and long term, even without variants of particular concern.
Because even when 'the pandemic is over' the virus is expected to still be with us. And we'd expect that even if the virus only evolves slowly, drifting in its genomic detail, there will be years when that and other factors mean the level of population immunity dips below the magic threshold. But waves that happen as a result of that will be spoken of as being epidemics.
Because even when 'the pandemic is over' the virus is expected to still be with us. And we'd expect that even if the virus only evolves slowly, drifting in its genomic detail, there will be years when that and other factors mean the level of population immunity dips below the magic threshold. But waves that happen as a result of that will be spoken of as being epidemics.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Sounds like it was unimpressive stuff, involving mild criticism of the governments botched comms, lots of reassurances and talk of how the hospital situation was nothing like previous waves, and local governments own version of the very 'business as usual' approach that I was drawing attention to earlier.
The most sensible detail I heard was the tory council leader suggesting that allowing flexibility with the school mask rules so that schools in the worst affected areas could carry on having their pupils wear masks would be a good idea.
elbows
Well-Known Member
In terms of the governments current approach and how they think it will be able to cope with a third wave: As well as hoping the wave isnt too huge, they've also been given indications by their 'experts' that there will be a large amount of variation in numbers between different locations. And this will encourage them to think they have plenty of wiggle room in that if it isnt the entire countries NHS that is at risk of being overloaded, they can shuffle poeple around hospitals across the country.
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bimble
floofy
Why do the experts think it will have more regional variation in numbers now than previous renditions?
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
I've said before I think we undersell vaccines.
The CDC has said recently they are unlikely to ever achieve the mythical 'heard immunity' for COVID in the USA due to vaccine hesitancy.
Except we are witnessing the effect of 60% of the USA getting a single dose of any vaccine in possibly the most vaccine resistant non-mask wearing country in the world.
Yet cases are going down, in a weirdly similar fashion to the UK. Why that blip in April?
I was worried about the Indian variant but I've seen little in the numbers, especially given we have opened up more, I was expecting lot more people to test positive now. I do think the weather has helped. Brrr. But it's tentatively leading me to conclude that a vaccine has beaten a virus. Again. 15 routine vaccinations keeping us all from getting sick from some pretty horrible diseases. This will be number 16.
Looking at Hackney's vaccinations figures show how deeply ingrained vaccination hesitancy is in ethnic communities in this country.
Though nobody has died of COVID in Hackney in the last 7 days. Hackney Central | Daily summary
The CDC has said recently they are unlikely to ever achieve the mythical 'heard immunity' for COVID in the USA due to vaccine hesitancy.
Except we are witnessing the effect of 60% of the USA getting a single dose of any vaccine in possibly the most vaccine resistant non-mask wearing country in the world.
Yet cases are going down, in a weirdly similar fashion to the UK. Why that blip in April?
I was worried about the Indian variant but I've seen little in the numbers, especially given we have opened up more, I was expecting lot more people to test positive now. I do think the weather has helped. Brrr. But it's tentatively leading me to conclude that a vaccine has beaten a virus. Again. 15 routine vaccinations keeping us all from getting sick from some pretty horrible diseases. This will be number 16.
Looking at Hackney's vaccinations figures show how deeply ingrained vaccination hesitancy is in ethnic communities in this country.
Though nobody has died of COVID in Hackney in the last 7 days. Hackney Central | Daily summary
elbows
Well-Known Member
I can probably fish out more detail if required, but for now I'll just quote a simple summary point from the modelling Warwick Uni did earlier in May:
elbows
Well-Known Member
I havent undersold them. They are expected to be a game changer. I only go on about the pesky details because some people expect too much, and too quickly, and a game changer does not mean a game ender.
I am guided by the modelling, which take the form this sort of modelling always takes - waves and the size and length of them boil down to a relatively simple model where the number of susceptible individuals is key, and other stuff like the speed of spread and the levels of human activity & mixing patterns also affects the results.
One of the most basic lessons in this pandemic so far is that it takes time for the virus to bounce back to levels where it has a bad effect on hospitals etc. Remember last summer, things did not bounce back straight away, we had months of concerns about local hotspots before things went dramatically wrong across the country. Therefore it is not possible to declare that the acute phase of the pandemic is over in any country until low number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths have been seen for a prolonged period of time.
There are too many variables for either me or the modellers to give an exact prediction of third wave size and timing. There are clues that imply a notable third wave will happen. There are unknowns about exact extent of seasonal effects, so there is also a fairly broad range of timing possibilities. And the modelling does think that at some point this year a combination of infections and vaccinations will bring an end to the initial pandemic phase. And things will move onto a situation where varying levels of population immunity over time, and the evolution of the virus, lead to epidemics in future years. ie even when the pandemic ends, the virus still has disruptive potential in the long term, but not constantly.
Herd immunity is not a mythical concept, it is at the heart of what makes a pandemic a pandemic in the first place, how that phase ends, and how epidemics caused by the same virus are expected to be an ongoing but intermittent feature. There could still be surprises that change the somewhat simplified picture we are given on this stuff, but we are a long way from being able to see those or understand them.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And to briefly recap last summers timing: Leicester was causing concern by June, national resurgence just started to show up in the basic data by mid August, and the alarm bells were really ringing by early September, via signs such as the test system capacity being heavily stretched by demand.
If we get through the current phase without things exploding before the school summer holidays start, that should help.
If we get through the current phase without things exploding before the school summer holidays start, that should help.
Pandemic could be declared over in the UK, says vaccine expert
New data should confirm the news very soon
Seems optimistic to me.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Pandemic could be declared over in the UK, says vaccine expert
New data should confirm the news very soonwww.walesonline.co.uk
Seems optimistic to me.
The headline is misleading but the detail within is really just 'the proof of the pudding is in the eating' so isnt really wrong. Its part of what I've been trying to describe in recent posts, part of the reason why I've started going on about herd immunity again, and part of the uncertainty about the size of a third wave. A third wave of infections that is not accompanied by a sizeable third wave of hospital admissions is exactly the sort of moment we'd expect authorities to declare victory of some form or another, although as usual there is plenty of tedious detail that could still make that inappropriate or premature.
And to be clear, the pandemic being over wont mean that people never have to think about this virus again, but it will be different to the acute horror we've faced since early 2020. Although moments that still resemble that are still expected via future epidemics.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
And as for the timing of when such a declaration can sensibly be made, I refer to last summer again. We had months where hospital admission figures did not cause alarm, but we had to wait a good while to see if that held true as infections spread across the age groups. On that occasion it was clearly not true that we were out of the woods, no matter how loudly the anti lockdown idiots shouted and distorted. And I will have to be extra careful about that stuff this time because although vaccines are brilliant, they will also tempt more people to prematurely think its all over.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Sadly 'Herd immunity means different things to politicians and the rest of the world. An overused term becoming somewhat meaningless.
The level of immunity suggested we attained with vaccines, some say at least 75% some say even more fully vaccinated or they don't work as expected. But the numbers are in, we are way way off this 75% number.
The USA has 39% and the UK has 44% fully vaccinated. Yet we have smashed the numbers, from thousands dying daily and hospitals and ICU rammed to pretty much nobody dying and hospitals going back to normal in 4 months. If I said that this time last year that the UK would halt the pandemic in the UK with only 40% fully vaccinated, I'd have been shot down. Also why I think we undersell vaccines.
This will definitely feed into how the rest of the world vaccinates. Just need to make more vaccines and get them to everyone.
The level of immunity suggested we attained with vaccines, some say at least 75% some say even more fully vaccinated or they don't work as expected. But the numbers are in, we are way way off this 75% number.
The USA has 39% and the UK has 44% fully vaccinated. Yet we have smashed the numbers, from thousands dying daily and hospitals and ICU rammed to pretty much nobody dying and hospitals going back to normal in 4 months. If I said that this time last year that the UK would halt the pandemic in the UK with only 40% fully vaccinated, I'd have been shot down. Also why I think we undersell vaccines.
This will definitely feed into how the rest of the world vaccinates. Just need to make more vaccines and get them to everyone.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Which bit of 'its too early to claim we've seen the back of nasty level of hospital admissions' are you struggling to understand? Relaxations havent been eased for long enough to say that yet, remember last summers timetable!
Authorities all over the globe will rush to deduce good news as soon as they can find it. That time has not arrived in terms of using the UK as an example.
Authorities all over the globe will rush to deduce good news as soon as they can find it. That time has not arrived in terms of using the UK as an example.
I could have sworn there was a lockdown as well or something.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Numbers are there for all to see. Unless there is a variant that escapes the vaccines we are good.
Last summer we weren't vaccinated and that was politicians being dumb as fuck, which is the current level of intelligence of our inbred ruling elite.
This summer we are, feeding back into my point on vaccinations.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
People have been out and about since the 12th April. Nothing happened, why?
bimble
floofy
Did you get your opinion from looking at Sundays newspaper headlines?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
The numbers are very encouraging re the vaccine tbf. Just about ten times more infection in the under 60s than the over 60s in Bolton atm, for instance, a pattern repeated in the other current hotspots. It was a massive, avoidable blunder to allow the Indian variant in last month, but the vaccines are working against it, and half a million more vaccines are being done a day.
Other future variants, who knows, but against the current nasty, things look promising.
Its a week to the day that mixing indoors has been allowed. One week.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Since the modelling tended to imply a July wave (wih uncertainty about seasonal impact and size of wave, and also whether vaccine rollout pace changes) there is no way anybody should expect me to become more optimistic or start declaring things to be over until sometime in July or later.
Here is another way people can think about the current picture and contrast it with local hotspots last summer:
The concerns about Leicesters case numbers last summer caused them to go into lockdown at the end of June. But if you look at their hospital admissions for that period and later, as the restrictions dragged on, you wont see any huge and shocking figures. Rather that stuff started getting real bad again at around the same time as the rest of the country, months later.
That was in a pre-vaccine era so if people see similar patterns again, please wait before reaching conclusions that vaccines have done all that we are asking of them in terms of hospitalisations.
Especially since this time around we have Bolton as the obvious local example, and there has been something of a rise in their hospital figures of late.
The other big clue is that even though the government have decided to go for a relaxed, minimal approach, they still felt the need to warn everyone that the India variant posed a risk to the future plan, warned people to be careful in other ways, and felt the need to fiddle with the vaccine rolllout.
Here is another way people can think about the current picture and contrast it with local hotspots last summer:
The concerns about Leicesters case numbers last summer caused them to go into lockdown at the end of June. But if you look at their hospital admissions for that period and later, as the restrictions dragged on, you wont see any huge and shocking figures. Rather that stuff started getting real bad again at around the same time as the rest of the country, months later.
That was in a pre-vaccine era so if people see similar patterns again, please wait before reaching conclusions that vaccines have done all that we are asking of them in terms of hospitalisations.
Especially since this time around we have Bolton as the obvious local example, and there has been something of a rise in their hospital figures of late.
The other big clue is that even though the government have decided to go for a relaxed, minimal approach, they still felt the need to warn everyone that the India variant posed a risk to the future plan, warned people to be careful in other ways, and felt the need to fiddle with the vaccine rolllout.
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