Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

On a somewhat personal note the fire brigade were involved with the local surge testing here, and at least the turnaround time for test result was reasonably impressive - they picked tests up from our house yesterday morning and I got the negative result message by around 2am.

 

[BigMoaner]

#scared

 

[elbows]

I'd be less concerned about the size of next wave if they showed more signs of being prepared to delay and roll-back some of the unlocking while they are trying to get vaccination levels up to the sort of figures that can really start to diminish the theoretical wave size. Unlike some previous pandemic stages where people found it quite easy to lose sight of what good stuff we were going to buy ourselves with the time gained via restrictions, it should be more obvious this time what could be achieved by buying a bit more time. Better levels of protection from vaccines. The potential to reach tipping points beyond which the virus will struggle more to really explode in a huge way.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Plus those who develop Long Covid.

Yep, and it's estimated that over 1 million in the UK are suffering from long covid.

Two of my friends are, one hasn't been able to return to work since she got it in January, and the other is only coping with p/t hours since he got it in December.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'd be less concerned about the size of next wave if they showed more signs of being prepared to delay and roll-back some of the unlocking while they are trying to get vaccination levels up to the sort of figures that can really start to diminish the theoretical wave size. Unlike some previous pandemic stages where people found it quite easy to lose sight of what good stuff we were going to buy ourselves with the time gained via restrictions, it should be more obvious this time what could be achieved by buying a bit more time. Better levels of protection from vaccines. The potential to reach tipping points beyond which the virus will struggle more to really explode in a huge way.

Everyone I've spoken to around here wants us to stick to the roadmap, because Worthing is now on under 1 case per 100k and they are not seeing the bigger picture, I seem to be a lone voice in expressing the view that the June stage, which is a big one, at the very least should be held off for a few more weeks, to see how things play out and to get more jabs into people, despite explaining why, it falls on deaf ears.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Yesterday's reported daily jabs, was a record for 2nd doses at 556,951 plus 1st doses at 205,410, total 762,361. It's taken a few weeks to bounce back from those low daily figures in April, and looks like we will be back up to the Feb/Mar levels soon.

That's in second place, behind the all time record on the 20th March of 844,285, with a plan to hit 1m a day over the coming weeks, it'll be interesting to see if that record is actually broken.

 

[platinumsage]

I wouldn't be surprised if they have a plan to try and offer all adults a jab by 21st June. Of course that won't give all those adults protection by that date, but it gives them a handy rejoinder when queried on the lockdown-lifting date.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I wouldn't be surprised if they have a plan to try and offer all adults a jab by 21st June. Of course that won't give all those adults protection by that date, but it gives them a handy rejoinder when queried on the lockdown-lifting date.

There was a report of a leaked NHS document predicting all over 18s would get their first jab by the end of June, this was dismissed by the government as just speculation, but I guess they would say that in case that target is missed, whereas if it's hit, it gives them a good news story, beating their own deadline by a month.

 

[bimble]

Big summary. I’m getting concerned.

Well. That’s not at all how the papers put things yesterday is it.

 

[2hats]

I'm glad they drew attention to the way the latest vaccine effectiveness estimates against that strain have been presented by media etc as great news but that actually there is plenty of bad news, or at least news with big implications, in the figures.

'Estimates' should be in bold and underlined.

The PHE vaccine effectiveness analysis could easily be an underestimate (overcount of B.1.617.2 numbers since using S gene proxy, and/or significant numbers of convalescents across the control and experimental groups) or an overestimate (disproportionally more convalescents in the experimental group, say if heavy with early vaccinees such as healthcare workers, emergency responders, care home staff and residents) relative to a broader immunonaive population.

 

[LeytonCatLady]

I just got my letter through inviting me to book the jab. I've got my first this Friday, and my second on 19 August. My housemate who's the same age (we're both 34) had an identical NHS letter, which is presumably also an invite, but from conversations I've had with him, I don't think he'll bother.

 

[elbows]

'Estimates' should be in bold and underlined.

The PHE vaccine effectiveness analysis could easily be an underestimate (overcount of B.1.617.2 numbers since using S gene proxy, and/or significant numbers of convalescents across the control and experimental groups) or an overestimate (disproportionally more convalescents in the experimental group, say if heavy with early vaccinees such as healthcare workers, emergency responders, care home staff and residents) relative to a broader immunonaive population.

Yes and however loudly or quietly I enphasise that, the media will still largely ignore the ranges shown via confidence intervals, and the contents of columns labelled confidence in things like the table in the tweet bimble posted above.

 

[elbows]

I lack the means to tell whether this will be any good, and its a disgrace that its taken this long to trial, but its something I suppose:

Covid: Parts of England to trial self-isolation support

People in overcrowded homes will be offered alternative accommodation in a bid to improve compliance.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

Too little, too late, as usual.

 

[muscovyduck]

I'm wary of the fact they appear to still be saying no extra financial support in the form of cash. Lets face it at least half of those "bespoke plans" are going to be useless

 

[Artaxerxes]

I'm wary of the fact they appear to still be saying no extra financial support in the form of cash. Lets face it at least half of those "bespoke plans" are going to be useless

It says increased social care support but of course shielding is now ended so.

 

[elbows]

Disappointing but maybe not that surprising and I would assume that multiple factors are behind this, perhaps including fear of infection whilst attending the vaccine centre?

Covid: Half of appointments missed at Glasgow mass vaccine hub

The BBC has learned a "considerable" number of no shows were recorded this weekend at Glasgow's Hydro.

www.bbc.co.uk

Also this story is missing the context of how many such appointments resulted in no-shows previously.

 

[elbows]

There is no shortage of stuff in SAGE documents that demonstrate that the current government approach to the situation regarding variants is not following the scientific advice properly. We've talked about some of it already but when reading some of the more nerdy papers a few things popped up which I want to quote. They may have been mentioned before via media reports, not sure.

● SPI-M Roadmap modelling suggests new variants with increased transmissibility are capable of generating a wave of infections bigger than previous waves.
● Incontrovertible evidence that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible may come too late.
● It is possible the outbreak in India is partly the result of higher transmission of B.1.617.2.
● In the face of uncertain evidence the risk of over-reacting seems small compared to the potential benefit of delaying a third wave until more people are vaccinated.

Thats from a May 11th paper that was published on May 21st. https://assets.publishing.service.g...ies_Pandemic_and_Epidemiological_Research.pdf

 

[elbows]

Meanwhile in Wales:

People "should be worried" about a resurgence in Covid, with an increase in cases of the Indian variant of concern, the Welsh government's chief medical officer says.

Dr Frank Atherton said the increase to "around 57" cases was "something we need to watch very carefully".

The total last Thursday was 28 cases of B617.2, the variant of concern.

Health minister Eluned Morgan repeated government advice that people take holidays at home to reduce the risk.

Dr Atherton said most cases of the variant of concern were in Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan, although they had been identified in all health board areas apart from Powys.

He said measures such as social distancing and using face coverings were "the things that keep us safe" and there was risk that the situation could "go into reverse" if those measures were relaxed.

Covid Indian variant: Public should be worried, says Wales chief medic

Cases of the so-called Indian variant are rising, the chief medical officer for Wales has warned.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Teaboy]

There is no shortage of stuff in SAGE documents that demonstrate that the current government approach to the situation regarding variants is not following the scientific advice properly. We've talked about some of it already but when reading some of the more nerdy papers a few things popped up which I want to quote. They may have been mentioned before via media reports, not sure.



Thats from a May 11th paper that was published on May 21st. https://assets.publishing.service.g...ies_Pandemic_and_Epidemiological_Research.pdf

That final bullet point is the key one really. Just extending the current restrictions till the end of July initially seems the obvious thing to do and would bring the timetable in line with the vaccination program a bit more.

 

[muscovyduck]

Disappointing but maybe not that surprising and I would assume that multiple factors are behind this, perhaps including fear of infection whilst attending the vaccine centre?

Covid: Half of appointments missed at Glasgow mass vaccine hub

The BBC has learned a "considerable" number of no shows were recorded this weekend at Glasgow's Hydro.

www.bbc.co.uk

Also this story is missing the context of how many such appointments resulted in no-shows previously.

The bottom of the article questions whether people are actually getting their invite letters. Anecdotally today I've been seeing a lot of Scottish 30-32 years old getting pissed off because they've not had their invite yet but under 30s are getting invites. Might be a connection?

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

I havent looked into Halpern yet. And as usual for this series of Cummings tweets, he is referring to the crucial week starting 9th March 2020 that I have spoken about so much.

edit - this article expands in these things:

Dominic Cummings doubles down on claim government planned ‘herd immunity’ response to Covid

No 10 and ministers insist it was never official policy

www.independent.co.uk

 

[SpookyFrank]

I lack the means to tell whether this will be any good, and its a disgrace that its taken this long to trial, but its something I suppose:

Covid: Parts of England to trial self-isolation support

People in overcrowded homes will be offered alternative accommodation in a bid to improve compliance.

www.bbc.co.uk

I properly shouted at the car radio this morning when this came up. Now? You're only fucking doing this now?

 

[glitch hiker]

£12 million doesn't seem like a lot.

No doubt it will go to private IAPT/CBT types. The sort that have massive waiting lists and offer a small fixed number of sessions. YMMV

I can't help thinking this is a tacit admission they know this crisis isn't going away anytime soon/third wave

 

[elbows]

From the hospital infections side of the pandemic comes:

Up to 8,700 patients died after catching Covid in English hospitals

Exclusive: official NHS data reveals 32,307 people contracted the virus while in hospital since March 2020

www.theguardian.com

This wont be the full story of that side of things, but is more easy to measure than the complex picture of feedback loop between cases who caught it in hospital and broader community infections.

 

[existentialist]

£12 million doesn't seem like a lot.

No doubt it will go to private IAPT/CBT types. The sort that have massive waiting lists and offer a small fixed number of sessions. YMMV

I can't help thinking this is a tacit admission they know this crisis isn't going away anytime soon/third wave

Classic "when all you've got is a [nasty cheap B&Q] hammer, everything looks like a nail". They could easily recruit armies of therapists, but they won't, because "not invented here". It's just got to be the IAPT thing, and only that.

 

[elbows]

Not sure Cummings will bring anything new to the party unless he has access to data which he is allowed to share but has not yet been released by anyone else. Are those graphs in his Twitter stuff new, or are they just slides that were available at the time?

The shapes shown in the graphs were used in some press conference material at the time, but they tended to strip off all the value and date labels, and also tended to present them as showing the wave in terms of cases rather than deaths.

I see in one of Cummings tweets the same shaped curve on the graph as the 'do nothing' one at the start of material that Vallance attempted to present in a press conference of March 12th 2020. Unfortunately this attempt ended up being the origins of the phrase we got used to hearing later, 'next slide please', because this was the press conference where his remote control failed to advance the slideshow, leaving everyone gazing at that unmitigated curve without getting to see the next one. The next one would likely be the same as the other one on the Cummings graph, but again without the sheer scale of things being obvious because the scale was missing from the graphs deemed suitable for public consumption at that time.

The following video was compiled by someone on youtube who is actually an anti-lockdown, pro great Barrington declaration fuckwit who is not happy that the original herd immunity approach was abandoned. So a position I despise, but in this case they've been unintentionally useful by editing together all the herd immunity talk from Vallance on that week, the last week where that plan was still in effect. The graph from his failed slideshow that I just described is visible in the first segment of this video.

 

[elbows]

The current public comms feels rather half-arsed even compared to their efforts during the u-turn botchathon days.

Covid: Eight Indian variant areas should avoid indoor gatherings

People are also asked not to go into or out of places hardest hit by the so-called Indian variant.

www.bbc.co.uk

The government has advised people not to travel into and out of areas hardest hit by the Indian variant of Covid-19 unless necessary, it has emerged.

Health officials said it was spreading fastest in Bolton, Blackburn, Kirklees, Bedford, Burnley, Leicester, Hounslow and North Tyneside.

On Friday, the government issued guidance on its website where it recommended those living in the listed areas:

Meet outside rather than inside where possible
Keep two metres apart from people who you do not live with (unless you have formed a support bubble with them), this includes friends and family you don't live with
Avoid travelling in and out of affected areas unless it is essential, for example for work (if you cannot work from home) or education

The guidance appears to have been updated on Friday, without any government announcement, to include the eight affected areas - although it was first given earlier in the month for Blackburn and Bolton.

A televised Downing Street briefing on Wednesday focused heavily on the Indian variant - but did not outline any specific rules or guidance for those areas.

 

[elbows]

By the way it is possible to get some idea of certain other areas of concern, including those where they really arent sure the scale of the new variant problem but have their suspicions, by looking at the list of locations using surge testing which is updated on the following page quite often:

[Withdrawn] Surge testing for new coronavirus (COVID-19) variants

How ‘surge testing’ and genomic sequencing are being used in locations in England where coronavirus (COVID-19) variants have been identified.

www.gov.uk