Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[chilango]

At a guess, because if they were all closed it could lead to a lot of homelessness from people getting evicted but not being able to arrange anywhere else to go.

There's a better fix for that than keeping estate agents open.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sadiq Khan on Sky News has just said he checked the latest figures this morning, and there's now more covid cases in London hospitals than at the peak in April.

 

[Flavour]

This Dutch flight thing is fucking weird. I am in an airport right now in Italy waiting to fly to the UK with KLM (ie connecting in Amsterdam) and they're telling me that flights to the UK are still running. So not sure how I'll get home back to Italy after Christmas but whatever

 

[Pingety Pong]

The Dutch has banned flights from the UK, and who can blame them?

Although, I suspect they are too late, and this new strain, if it did actually start in the UK, has already travelled to mainland Europe.

I was watching an interview with the mayor of a town in Saxony where numbers have risen ridiculously fast over the last few weeks, and he said that he simply has no explanation why the situation is so bad despite really tough restrictions (and people sticking to them as well). So I wouldn't be surprised either if this strain is already in other parts of Europe.

 

[brogdale]

I found this thread an informative, seemingly very credible read:

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

This Dutch flight thing is fucking weird. I am in an airport right now in Italy waiting to fly to the UK with KLM (ie connecting in Amsterdam) and they're telling me that flights to the UK are still running. So not sure how I'll get home back to Italy after Christmas but whatever

Not running. I had a woman flying to Tokyo from London with KLM this morning, they have stuck her on Lufthansa to Frankfurt and JAL on to Tokyo.

edit, your flight may run, they are flying back empty.

 

[Flavour]

Getting back into Europe after Christmas may prove quite tricky. I suspect other countries will quickly follow suit

 

[Cid]

I know we all hate estate agents but they do a fairly vital service. You might need to get somewhere. There are lots of harrowing situations such as relationships breaking down and domestic abuse. Not everyone who is suddenly homeless is broke, without these people the options are limited. Hotels are shut. Might get an Airbnb if you’re lucky.

The point was more whether they actually have to be in offices, and whether their offices are exempt from being covid compliant... the one near me doesn’t even have distancing in desk layout (they do have space). It is of course probably a relatively minor thing, but it’s just an easy and very visible example of how some exemptions can lead to complacency. Particularly when the exempted group were already massive wankers.

 

[bimble]

The flight bans frightens me. Not that I had plans to go anywhere but the idea that we will all be trapped here on our island brings out a cornered animal feeling.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I was watching an interview with the mayor of a town in Saxony where numbers have risen ridiculously fast over the last few weeks, and he said that he simply has no explanation why the situation is so bad despite really tough restrictions (and people sticking to them as well). So I wouldn't be surprised either if this strain is already in other parts of Europe.

That is what I suspect, it wouldn't surprise me if it started in Europe, or somewhere else, and was imported into the UK, but we just happened to be the first to spot it, and its frightening transmission rate.

 

[killer b]

It's presumably likely that this new strain has appeared and caught hold in London for the same reason the virus first appeared and caught hold in London, ie because it's a massive melting pot of people constantly arriving and leaving from/to all over the world - so the new strain probably didn't start here, but it's certainly been exported everywhere else by now too.

 

[frogwoman]

I know bimble, I feel really depressed about living here at the moment. I had plans to go to Sweden in 2021 to see friends (not booked anything yet tho) and spend some time doing nature based stuff and the thought of going is one of the things I've been really looking forward to. I know they have their own covid issues but I'm devastated at the thought of having to cancel

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

That is what I suspect, it wouldn't surprise me if it started in Europe, or somewhere else, and was imported into the UK, but we just happened to be the first to spot it, and its frightening transmission rate.

Take a look at the figures in places like Saxony, through the roof there

 

[frogwoman]

Apparently they still don't have all the facts about whether it really does have a worse transmission rate though? There are other things that are driving the transmission upward too

 

[BristolEcho]

I'm not sure about the chance of avoiding this latest episode really, short of changing the entire response from the beginning. I also think lots of the pressure for Xmas relaxation actually came from the media incessantly going on about Xmas since October, but I do think anecdotally plenty of people I have talked to have wanted something like that as well.

I also think a sudden change in restrictions when the news of the new variant was all they could do, and I'm not pissed off with them about that, and I do find the moaning about cancelled plans for Xmas, etc. quite ridiculous and selfish in the face of 80,000 dead in this country, and likely many more before this is over. I personally wish they'd been tighter restrictions all the way through, but I recognize that is not what many people want, and they also come with other disadvantages, and I do know that it is a balance between various competing needs in society.

My thoughts from reading and listening to stuff are that this variant is really worrying them (like in March when the modelling came in a forced a sudden change) and it seems clear that Tier 3 isn't enough to control its spread, hence the growing cases in some areas despite being under that level of restrictions. I think we'll see an inevitable spread across the country in the next 1-2 months, and we'll end up in a national lockdown/Tier 4 sometime in the new year. Fuck knows about schools, it's a hill they have chosen to die on.

I think the nightmare scenarios are either (1) the vaccine/s doesn't protect against the new variant, or (2) it causes more severe illness and outcomes in some way. Or both... (I also have some concerns the vaccine take-up is going to be low, and that the rollout is going to get fucked up in some ways and be delayed in some ways...).

As an aside it doesn't even to have a higher fatality % rate to actually kill more people. If more people just get ill and overwhelm the NHS then more people will die, and/or if more people just get it than might otherwise have before we have a vaccinated population then also more people will die.

It really is going to be a very grim few months I think.

I'm sick of hearing about Christmas. I hate it normally, but this year has highlighted even more why I detest it so much. It's not actually healthy to put so much on to one day and it's no wonder that so many people are so unhappy and lonely around this time of year because you just can't escape it.

I can see some benefit for a winter festival and have mellowed out about it, but all that pressure for people to buy stuff and to have fun on this one day of the year? Bah humbug.

 

[LDC]

The flight bans frightens me. Not that I had plans to go anywhere but the idea that we will all be trapped here on our island brings out a cornered animal feeling.

Innit, some bigger Gruinard Island.

 

[Pickman's model]

Apparently they still don't have all the facts about whether it really does have a worse transmission rate though? There are other things that are driving the transmission upward too

Forcing millions of people to go to the shops at the same time perhaps

 

[frogwoman]

I'm sick of hearing about Christmas. I hate it normally, but this year has highlighted even more why I detest it so much. It's not actually healthy to put so much on to one day and it's no wonder that so many people are so unhappy and lonely around this time of year because you just can't escape it.

I can see some benefit for a winter festival and have mellowed out about it, but all that pressure for people to buy stuff and to have fun on this one day of the year? Bah humbug.

Totally agree.

 

[Pickman's model]

The flight bans frightens me. Not that I had plans to go anywhere but the idea that we will all be trapped here on our island brings out a cornered animal feeling.

Especially when you remember you're trapped on this island with the parliamentary conservative party

 

[LDC]

Apparently they still don't have all the facts about whether it really does have a worse transmission rate though? There are other things that are driving the transmission upward too

I thought it wasn't 'official' but was almost certainly pointing for that to be the case though.

 

[frogwoman]

Forcing millions of people to go to the shops at the same time perhaps

Well that and despite the fact that it clearly does spread outside and in summer (south africa and Brazil are having a nightmare atm) something about winter and autumn weather helps droplets last longer or something?

 

[Pickman's model]

Having Boris Johnson run around Whitehall shouting don't panic like some latter-day Corporal Jones would be more constructive than any measure the government has decided to impose this christmas

 

[cupid_stunt]

Apparently they still don't have all the facts about whether it really does have a worse transmission rate though?

According to the expert from NERVTAG on Sky's 'Sophy Ridge on Sunday' they do, all the evidence came together on Friday and was immediately presented to the government, she thinks the figure of 70% higher transmission rate is a reasonable guide at present.

 

[frogwoman]

According to the expert from NERVTAG on Sky's 'Sophy Ridge on Sunday' they do, all the evidence came together on Friday and was immediately presented to the government, she thinks the figure of 70% higher transmission rate is a reasonable guide at present.

The situation was already not exactly in control before this tho. It's just that I've read other stuff saying that the properties of the virus itself might not have that big effect and there are other factors around winter increasing it ( and the hopeless response both here and elsewhere in Europe ) Regardless of which it still needs to be investigated and treated seriously

 

[editor]

This Dutch flight thing is fucking weird. I am in an airport right now in Italy waiting to fly to the UK with KLM (ie connecting in Amsterdam) and they're telling me that flights to the UK are still running. So not sure how I'll get home back to Italy after Christmas but whatever

Please keep us updated as my ex is hoping to fly out to Italy later today. And good luck for your flight!

 

[PD58]

On the plus side, if there is one, no doubt the vaccines will be being tested on the new variant(s) so we will know fairly quickly if they still work and given how they are proposed to, in my limited understanding, I see no reason why they shouldn't... As for Xmas, maybe this year will bring back some sort of more rationale perspective going forward I.e. there are other times of the year when 'we' (friends and families) can meet up, not just on some socially constructed, arbitrary often miserable day (weather wise) in December.

 

[Badgers]

I am looking forward to the Mayday celebrations with family

 

[frogwoman]

Covid-19: New coronavirus variant is identified in UK

England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, has told parliament that a new variant of covid-19 has been identified and may be driving infections in the south east, leading to headlines about “mutant covid.” Jacqui Wise answers some common questions It’s been snappily named VUI-202012/01 (the...

www.bmj.com

Here is an in depth looking BMJ article on the new variant

 

[LDC]

I'm sick of hearing about Christmas. I hate it normally, but this year has highlighted even more why I detest it so much. It's not actually healthy to put so much on to one day and it's no wonder that so many people are so unhappy and lonely around this time of year because you just can't escape it.

I can see some benefit for a winter festival and have mellowed out about it, but all that pressure for people to buy stuff and to have fun on this one day of the year? Bah humbug.

I totally get why people like it, but there's been loads of important events and religious and cultural festivals and holidays fucked up this year. Just fucking annoys me as it feels really insensitive that such a big thing is made of this one tbh. The news is a constant stream of mawkish nonsense about it, I'd be really pissed off and upset if I'd had relatives die and the news just kept showing clips of people going on about Xmas turkeys ffs.

Also the ratio of business 'leaders' or retailers given time to spout off about restrictions compared to NHS workers or spokespeople is telling, the BBC is terrible for that.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Covid-19: New coronavirus variant is identified in UK

England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, has told parliament that a new variant of covid-19 has been identified and may be driving infections in the south east, leading to headlines about “mutant covid.” Jacqui Wise answers some common questions It’s been snappily named VUI-202012/01 (the...

www.bmj.com

Here is an in depth looking BMJ article on the new variant

That's a bit out of date TBH, it was published 16th Dec., and the new data/evidence only came together on Friday 18th.