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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

The flight bans frightens me. Not that I had plans to go anywhere but the idea that we will all be trapped here on our island brings out a cornered animal feeling.
I was loosely planning on going to Ireland for all of Feb, I was planning on hiring an AirBnB for a month, arrive - isolate for 14 days whilst WFH then go see me Mam and Dad. Me old Mam has Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s so hasn’t got much time left. Wasn’t keen on flying but was prepared to do so.
 
As for Xmas, maybe this year will bring back some sort of more rationale perspective going forward I.e. there are other times of the year when 'we' (friends and families) can meet up, not just on some socially constructed, arbitrary often miserable day (weather wise) in December.

While there is truth to this, and I hate Christmas, for those of us who work in schools, or those who are waiting to meet up with e.g grandchildren who go to school, or both, our times are limited by school breaks, especially in my case where the distance between us is hundreds of miles. Easter seems a long way away and with no guarantees. Summer even longer. It's depressing,

As for the 'trapped on the island' (others, not PD58 )bit...well, hmmm. Adjust your perspective if that's how you feel, because that's all you can really do. There are many people who are permanently trapped in somewhere a lot smaller than this island due to social and economic deprivation. And their confinement is far more long term, often permanent. Travel is my life, in that I work to be able to travel. So I do understand. But, ultimately, ours is not the worst deprivation in this shit-show.
 
I'm not sure about the chance of avoiding this latest episode really, short of changing the entire response from the beginning
I'm not sure this latest episode was as inevitable as all that. In short, lockdown 2 ended too soon.

This can be seen quite well on elbows attractive and informative hospital admission charts:
Covid-19 patients in hospital by English region using data that is available both on the official dashboard and at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

View attachment 244113
Same data but presented in my more usual manner. Sorry that there some differences between how the colours are mapped between these two graphs.

View attachment 244114
Looking at the total national figure on the top chart you can see how the second wave developed more slowly than the first wave, probably because of the restrictions in place this time, and the 2nd lockdown was bringing the number down at a shallower rate, partly because the lockdown was looser and possibly due to the new strain in the south east. But while the first lockdown lasted months and bought the figures right down before being eased, the second lockdown had only just turned the corner, leaving cases high before the 2nd tier system was introduced and cases started shooting up again.

Looking at the regional picture, in the north you can see the upward trajectory of the second wave reduce because of the tier 3 restrictions and then come down during lockdown 2. In the south east and London, where the new strain is hitting, you can see hospital admissions were taking off before lockdown 2, held level during November and then took off again once restrictions were eased at the beginning of December.

I've been following the figures in the south east, because I've got friends and family in SE London, north Kent and south Essex. During lockdown 2 the worst hit areas of Kent - Swale and Thanet - were seeing new cases coming down by the end of lockdown 2. The new strain was mainly contained to the north Kent coast. MPs further south in Kent were furious they were put in tier 3 as their case numbers were still so low. Since that lockdown ended cases have exploded across the whole of Kent, London, most of Essex, into East Sussex and around the east of England. I'd cynically assumed this was caused by pre-Xmas activity - packed shops, meet ups, etc - but a new more transmittable strain does explain this rapid spread. But if lockdown 2 had continued until case numbers had come down much more, which it should've, then the problems of the new strain might have been identified before it had spread so far across the country.

All that, of course, ignores the politics and economics of Xmas. Johnson had decided to "Sacrifice November to save December", so whatever the figures demanded he'd decided lockdown 2 was only going to last a month. There was huge demand from retail to open for December, when they make a big part of their profits. There was huge demand from people who wanted normality at Christmas. And Johnson, as always wanting to avoid difficult decisions, tried to give it to them. But now he's ended up with the worst of both worlds - the virus has spread widely, shops are having to shut for some of their busiest days and Xmas is cancelled for millions of people.
 
I can understand the desperate desire to seek exemptions and try to find wriggle room to see family but it's clear enough. Unpack your bag. Stay where you are.

Yeah, this.

I can understand it as well, but everyone is really going to have to get used to the idea that these sort of restrictions on meeting others and doing various things that we would normally take for granted are going to be with us for the foreseeable future.

The idea that everything would quickly get back to normal is a fantasy.
 
Yeah, this.

I can understand it as well, but everyone is really going to have to get used to the idea that these sort of restrictions on meeting others and doing various things that we would normally take for granted are going to be with us for the foreseeable future.

The idea that everything would quickly get back to normal is a fantasy.
If it is 70% more infectious then we are about to find a new new normal soon.
 
A bit more detail please?

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

p.s. thanks for the quick response...and for info they are Brighton based (i.e. tier 2).
that is 6 days away
5 days ago we were in tier 2 and are now in 4
and Spain may join the other countries which are now not accepting UK arrivals

e2a: not meaning to be gloomy but really travel plans at the moment are a bit optimistic
 
My son's partner is planning on flying to Madrid on Dec 26th to see her family for the first time in a year. Can this still happen?

Cheers - Louis MacNeice
Only if she can claim it's an 'essential' journey. Work is apparently essential.
There certainly are shitloads of planes in the sky right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if Spain bans Brits arriving too before then.
 
that is 6 days away
5 days ago we were in tier 2 and are now in 4
and Spain may join the other countries which are now not accepting UK arrivals


I get that, but as things currently stand the advice seems to be that it is possible to travel to Spain from a tier 2 area...I am getting confused!

Cheers and thanks to people for their input - Louis MacNeice
 
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I get that, but as things currently stand the advice seems to be that it is possible to travel to Spain from a tier 2 area...I am getting confused!

Cheers and thanks to people for their input - Louis MacNeice
Assuming she lives here, she might also get stuck in Spain for some time (if she manages to get there in the first place). So guess it also depends whether that's doable or not.
 
If the vaccine means you develop antibodies, does that mean tests aren't going to be able to tell whether someone who's been vaccinated has then later actually caught/been exposed to the virus?
 
I was meant to fly out to belfast on the 26th and drive home to care for my brother for two weeks to give my parents some respite. I guess thats fucked now.

That would be OK.

Where and when you can meet in larger groups
There are still circumstances in which you are allowed to meet others from outside your household or support bubble in larger groups, but this should not be for socialising and only for permitted purposes. A full list of these circumstances will be included in the regulations, and includes:
---

 
Assuming she lives here, she might also get stuck in Spain for some time (if she manages to get there in the first place). So guess it also depends whether that's doable or not.

She does live here and she's ok with the getting stuck in Spain as she can work online. Who knows what will happen between now and Boxing Day!

Thank you, you lovely people of U75 - Louis MacNeice
 
While there is truth to this, and I hate Christmas, for those of us who work in schools, or those who are waiting to meet up with e.g grandchildren who go to school, or both, our times are limited by school breaks, especially in my case where the distance between us is hundreds of miles. Easter seems a long way away and with no guarantees. Summer even longer. It's depressing,

As for the 'trapped on the island' (others, not PD58 )bit...well, hmmm. Adjust your perspective if that's how you feel, because that's all you can really do. There are many people who are permanently trapped in somewhere a lot smaller than this island due to social and economic deprivation. And their confinement is far more long term, often permanent. Travel is my life, in that I work to be able to travel. So I do understand. But, ultimately, ours is not the worst deprivation in this shit-show.
Am well aware that I’m extremely fortunate to have food warm home two legs and a garden etc. Hopefully it’s permissible every now and then though, even on here, to just say something about how it all feels, like that this morning I feel scared.
 
Am well aware that I’m extremely fortunate to have food warm home two legs and a garden etc. Hopefully it’s permissible every now and then though, even on here, to just say something about how it all feels, like that this morning I feel scared.

I said I understood. And I offered constructive advice. I don't really get the defensiveness and passive-aggressiveness (hopefully it's permissible even on here etc) of your reply.
 
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