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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

I said I understood. And I offered constructive advice. I don't really get the defensiveness and passive-aggressiveness (hopefully it's permissible even on here etc) of your reply.
Because sometimes it’s ok to wallow or feel crap even if other people have it much harder or it’s a FWP. Of course there are worse situations, of course other people are having very much harder lives right now. There shouldn’t be guilt for having/expressing those feelings piled onto everything else.
 
Supermarkets will be open as usual, turkey and entertainment orders are coming in for collection from tomorrow. How many cancellations will remain to be seen.

Yesterday I served a Cambridge city GP who was teetering between rage and despair. He said cases in the city are out of control, though deaths are relatively low. The change to Tier 4 for the East of England includes Beds to the west and Herts to the south, but only Peterborough in Cambridgeshire, the rest of the county remains in Tier 2 presumably because of its large rural Fenland areas.

Heard earlier that a friend’s teacher daughter’s partner, 40ish, has been very poorly with a collapsed lung and blood clot, he tested positive, starting to recover just as the rest of the family (two primary age kids), tested positive too.
 
To be clear my son's partner is a Spanish national from Madrid; my son is not going.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

If you're in Tier 4, you're only supposed to travel abroad if it's classed as essential, which visiting family isn't. AFAIK, there's no exemption for foreign nationals if they are UK residents.

In other tiers, you are strongly discouraged from travelling abroad but you are allowed.
 
I'm sure the BTP would have been delighted to teach them the error of their ways.

Film it and send it to BTP - if you cant'd find their local twatter, then use the security problem links (the see it say it sort it contact)

I am not really in the habit of approaching the police voluntarily. The last time was about 3 years ago when I was a witness in a serious crime case. But those stupid people on the train probably need some firm feedback on their actions as you suggest (I wouldn't be bothered if they just want to shout the odds in the middle of a park or some other open space).

BTP seem conspicuous by their absence. Their chiefs would likely claim there aren't enough of them to go round and perhaps this is true. A paranoid side of me wonders whether the lack of consistent enforcement on public transport and in shops is not some attempt at herd immunity by stealth. Occam's Razor suggests simpler explanations such as government incompetence and the profit motive.
 
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Can we make a big effort to be kinder please? A lot of people are hurting right now and people react in a lot of different ways to this. Ta. Much love urban x

Thank you for this. There's part of me that thinks I've no right to be unhappy at having the opportunity to see my folks for the first time in a year snatched away at the last minute when other people have got seriously ill and died. But having sympathy for them/protecting others from getting the virus and missing your own family are not mutually exclusive. We can feel both things. The way you feel isn't wrong or right, it's how you act on your feelings that matters.
 
Fuck's sake yourself. I came here offering help for a different perspective, not a fucking argument.
Whoa wasn’t intended as passive aggressive just a bit defensive. It’s all ok, I know you didn’t mean to come across as if you were saying pull your socks up. Just today the whole ‘be grateful for what you have’ thing hasn’t been working as well as it usually does for me.
 
My dad who's a retired biochemist says that if as has been mentioned in some news stories this new strain seems to be hitting younger people harder, then it would mean Covid is following the same pattern as the Spanish Flu pandemic, where at first it was old people who died then about a year later the virus mutated and started killing young adults. Nicola Sturgeon having taken serious measures to try and keep it out of Scotland and extending the school holidays/doing online learning for the start of next term may reflect this.

I've seen no credible suggestions that this is a feature of the new strain. Maybe there is some, but I've not seen it, and the media just reach for their big book of pandemic mutation cliches at times like these. But then I've not even seen recent media articles that make this suggestion, so maybe I am missing something that has more merit.

Its not even clear that the 1918 wave pattern was as simple as that, and we dont have enough meaningful samples from the era to check. Its just as likely that, for example, some second wave 1918 flu viruses were better at transmitting and got into all sorts of populations in a big way that were relatively spared by the first wave. Its not clear and probably never will be, and some experts in the field will accept some traditional 1918 views whilst others are far from convinced.
 
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I'm trying to continue to sound calm & upbeat when my old Mum & Dad keep asking me if I think they're OK to go to the doctors to get their jab this week. I don't fucking know...but I just keep on saying stuff like "I'm sure they'll have it all safe" etc. but, in reality, there has to be a risk surrounding getting all these very old folk in one building. Just trying not to get to too anxious, so that they just get it done... :(
 
It's presumably likely that this new strain has appeared and caught hold in London for the same reason the virus first appeared and caught hold in London, ie because it's a massive melting pot of people constantly arriving and leaving from/to all over the world - so the new strain probably didn't start here, but it's certainly been exported everywhere else by now too.

By the way it turns out I was a bit out of date in terms of 'first UK cases, first UK death, how early did it start?' stuff.

Since early on a lack of surveillance in the first months was thought likely to have obscured the beginning of the UK outbreak. And indeed when we finally started noticing deaths, it was because we had just started actually looking for them properly, eg by testing hospital patients who didnt have a history of travel to China etc.

And there were no shortage of anecdotes about people in a choir getting sick early. and Fergus Walsh from the BBC testing positive for antibodies even though the last time he knew he got sick was before there was even any covid-19 awareness.

Well it turns out that someone got the authorities to explore the January death of their father, after an illness in December, and the virus was detected in lung samples so they got a death certificate with Covid-19 on it:


Peter Attwood, 84, from Chatham in Kent, died in hospital on 30 January, after falling ill in December with symptoms including cough and a fever. He had never travelled abroad.

Although heart failure and pneumonia were originally listed as the reason for his death, the Kent coroner has now confirmed that Mr Attwood had coronavirus in his lung tissue, The Sun reported.
Covid-19 has since been named as his cause of death — making Mr Attwood the first known coronavirus victim outside China, only 19 days after the first fatality was reported in Wuhan.

A lot of death can happen from novel viruses before people notice. The above is not new news but I missed it at the time some months ago.
 
Apparently they still don't have all the facts about whether it really does have a worse transmission rate though? There are other things that are driving the transmission upward too

Such facts often take a long time to emerge, if ever, and require luck and masses of data to firmly establish.

It may be that specific details of their genomic surveillance give them more confidence about reaching certain conclusions, but they may be being coy about such detail. For example Scotland was not afraid to mention the new strain in the context of care home and hospital outbreaks. If the existing hospital genonic spread studies are part of whats picked up this new strain, then they may have had the opportunity to study the spread in particular institutions in a rather detailed way.

We'll see. So far in terms of info in the public domain, I am missing what would be required for my own impression of this situation to develop properly. Its quite weak stuff, but they may be sitting on stuff that is more compelling.
 
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