Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
I wouldn't believe it, if only the government was saying it.
I would recommend watching the Andrew Marr Show on iPlayer and see the interviews with the WHO expert & Dr Susan Hopkins from Imperial College, who heads up PHE's covid response.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Fair play, but i don't watch Marr.
Nobody does do they?
2hats
Dust.
Some people are getting confused.
There is currently no indication that VUI-202012/01 (B.1.1.7 lineage characterised by 17 mutations including replacements on N501Y and P681H with a double deletion at H69/V70) is more infectious amongst the young in particular. Only that it may have higher transmissivity, have higher ACE2 affinity and (possibly) improved anti-body evasion. More detail in the latest phylogenetic analysis:
Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the UK defined by a novel set of spike mutations
Preliminary genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in the UK defined by a novel set of spike mutations Report written by: Andrew Rambaut1, Nick Loman2, Oliver Pybus3, Wendy Barclay4, Jeff Barrett5, Alesandro Carabelli6, Tom Connor7, Tom Peacock4, David L Robertson8, Erik...
virological.org
The South African 501.V2 variant (shares a couple of mutations with VUI-202012/0, but not all), which appears to be the main driver of the current wave there, is perhaps more concerning as it appears to spread faster, results in a higher viral load, is possibly more severe among young adults and the mutations therein may improve immune escape.
Here’s what you need to know about the new coronavirus variant, now confirmed in SA
Puddy_Tat
happy mew year
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
I sense a parenting FAIL. Said eight-year old probably hasn't even read Capital yet.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Then more academic partner research and modelling before announcements when evidence was in, then final report Friday just gone.
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
They report to the government weekly, on Fri. 11th they advised the government of their concerns, hence London & much of the SE being rushed into tier 3.
On Fri. 18th they advised the government that their research & modeling had now confirmed how bad things were, hence London & much of the SE being rushed into tier 4, and both Scotland & Wales taking further action.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yep, but Hancock would have been aware of the work "in late November" to see why North Kent was stubbornly not responding to intervention?
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
Actually, on this occasion we may well be, because we got on the case fairly early, the suspicion is that a lot of countries haven't picked-up on it yet, so haven't realised how bad it is.
Puddy_Tat
happy mew year
i am trying to resist telling someone on twitter to fuck off, as he seems to be blaming the handful of railway staff and even smaller handful of transport plod at each london terminus station for not preventing the mass exodus that happened at a couple of hours' notice yesterday...
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
If you're constantly worried about being able to get home again it seems unlikely you'd enjoy your trip much.
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
He did respond by putting Kent into tier 3 straight after lockdown.
There's fucking plenty of reasons to kick this government over it's response to covid, but on this occasion they seem to have moved very quickly, to a rapidly changing situation.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Due to the increased prevalance of that strain, I think they've developed a crude method to check for it by proxy using more standard testing rather than proper genomic analysis.
The normal test checks for three things. When the S part of the test fails to detect what its looking for, they are now using that as a proxy for it being the new strain. But there are some other reasons why some tests have always failed to pick up the S bit. So its a noisy signal. However, once prevalance of the new strain reaches a certain level, it becomes safer for them to assume this isnt the usual background noise, and that it can be used as a rough indicator that its the new strain.
I deduced this mostly from blurb that accompanied ONS data. The same data that was used to make one of the slides yesterday, but that slide only included the southern regions and the full data covers the whole country by region. In this case it seems that mid-November was the tipping point where this methodology could actually be used with more confidence:
From Percentage of COVID-19 cases that are positive for ORF1ab and N genes - Office for National Statistics
They will still be doing the proper genomic analysis on various samples from various settings, but I dont have any proper data from those yet. And is useful for them to have a cruder and slightly less reliable, but easier and quicker means of estimating new variant levels.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Exactly why I'm sceptical about this 'we didn't know' until 2 days ago line.
elbows
Well-Known Member
What counts as a significant number?
There are some logical holes in their current approach, if the new strain has a significant advantage. They are inviting the new variant to grow in other regions, where they already know it is present at some level. And if the new variant does not take off big time in those other regions, that might imply that its not that much more transmissible than other strains, and that its growth in the south east is more because it happened to emerge in the right place at the right time than anything else.
My view is still limited because I expect they've seen the growth of this new strain in some very specific contexts and settings, such as hospital outbreaks, and have formed some of their conclusions and fears based on whats been seen in those outbreaks. Too much guesswork on my part due to a lack of info.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yep. 'Prepare for tier 5' would be a good message for the rest of the UK as well.
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
unfortunately probably the correct move today.
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
Sky News has got hold of the minutes from the Nervtag meeting last Friday, which confirms they think the transmission rate to be 71% above other strains, and provides a range of how it could increase the 'R' number, the scale being between 0.39 to 0.93. 
2hats
Dust.
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