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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

cupid_stunt said:
Sky News has got hold of the minutes from the Nervtag meeting last Friday, which confirms they think the transmission rate to be 71% above other strains, and provides a range of how it could increase the 'R' number, the scale being between 0.39 to 0.93. :eek:
Click to expand...

Cheers for the tip. Went looking to see if those minutes were officially released. They were:


edit - oops I was too slow!
 
~Included in the 'currently insufficient data to draw any conclusion on:' section is:

Antigenic escape. The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
So my ex has been waiting at Heathrow. She was told that her flight had been rescheduled to 5.20 but she's now been told that it's cancelled.

The press is rightfully pointing out how fucking dodgy it is that the announcement to go into Tier 4 was held back until after Parliament was put in recess and all the fucking MPs were able to slope off out of London.
 
2hats said:
NERVTAG minutes.
Click to expand...

From in there:

"Antigenic escape ... Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets"

A bit under 0.5% of the infected population then - as something on the order of 10% of the population have had it now, that would imply it's certainly not completely able to evade immunity from previous infection (if it is at all - as they say need to see if 0.5% is any higher than expected), and it's likely (or at least not unlikely) the same will obtain from vaccine-generated immunity.
 
editor said:
The press is rightfully pointing out how fucking dodgy it is that the announcement to go into Tier 4 was held back until after Parliament was put in recess and all the fucking MPs were able to slope off out of London.
Click to expand...

But, the governments of the UK, and the WHO, were only given the new data/information on Friday.
 
editor said:
The press is rightfully pointing out how fucking dodgy it is that the announcement to go into Tier 4 was held back until after Parliament was put in recess and all the fucking MPs were able to slope off out of London.
Click to expand...
The reason it was held back - if it was - was to avoid the headbanger hard right of the tory party voting against new restrictions. I don't think anyone here can really doubt they're necessary, and if there's a chance they wouldn't pass then I can see the logic in it.
 
editor said:
So my ex has been waiting at Heathrow. She was told that her flight had been rescheduled to 5.20 but she's now been told that it's cancelled.

The press is rightfully pointing out how fucking dodgy it is that the announcement to go into Tier 4 was held back until after Parliament was put in recess and all the fucking MPs were able to slope off out of London.
Click to expand...

More complex than that. Some backbench MPs would have resisted any new restrictions as they're against lockdown and would have tried to force a vote on it, and also there's a power play going on to replace Johnson, so anything he does is going to get some of his party angry atm.
 
prunus said:
From in there:

"Antigenic escape ... Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915 subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate with comparable data sets"

A bit under 0.5% of the infected population then - as something on the order of 10% of the population have had it now, that would imply it's certainly not completely able to evade immunity from previous infection (if it is at all - as they say need to see if 0.5% is any higher than expected), and it's likely (or at least not unlikely) the same will obtain from vaccine-generated immunity.
Click to expand...

Yeah I was doing some similar fag-packet maths in my head, but realistically there's not enough data there. Acquired immunity isn't going to be prevalent enough to make much of a dent in infection rates at this point anyway. What worries me is the vaccine(s) potentially being less effective against this new version, but presumably there's even less pertinent data about that.
 
cupid_stunt said:
But, the governments of the UK, and the WHO, were only given the new data/information on Friday.
Click to expand...

You are talking about the timing of formal processes, in this case NERVTAG reviewing things including a PHE paper of the same date. More informally behind the scenes these possibilities have probably been on the radar for some time, and I think its quite clear from the way Hancock talked about the new variant in public on Monday that they already had a pretty good idea what to expect later in the week. Especially as NERVTAG are mostly just formally approving of the tentative work done so far, and in many specific areas their stance is simply 'waiting for more evidence and data to come in' and attaching some formal degree of confidence to particular claims.
 
SpookyFrank said:
Yeah I was doing some similar fag-packet maths in my head, but realistically there's not enough data there. Acquired immunity isn't going to be prevalent enough to make much of a dent in infection rates at this point anyway. What worries me is the vaccine(s) potentially being less effective against this new version, but presumably there's even less pertinent data about that.
Click to expand...

Thats probably where the likes of Porton Down come in with research efforts. I did think of the conspiraloon reaction when the Scottish CMO mentioned how Porton Down were growing the new strain at the moment.
 
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LynnDoyleCooper said:
More complex than that. Some backbench MPs would have resisted any new restrictions as they're against lockdown and would have tried to force a vote on it, and also there's a power play going on to replace Johnson, so anything he does is going to get some of his party angry atm.
Click to expand...
Actually yeah this is it: it would have passed in parliament but the government may have needed to look to Labour to get it over the line - which would have probably have meant Labour asking for extra items on the bill, and have been a - possibly fatal - blow to Johnson's leadership.

So loads of extra people get to die for Tory party leadership nonsense. Whoop.
 
teqniq said:
Good article from Rachel Shabi:

www.independent.co.uk

Opinion: Don’t let Boris Johnson and his government grind you down – here’s why

Christmas Covid restrictions are not just the fault of a new strain of the virus, they are a consequence of serious and repeated government mistakes, month after month, setting us on this doomed path
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
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This paragraph alone should have the government miles behind in the polls and Labour a certainty to form the next government. That the polls are no better than tied at the moment shows how much Labour have hollowed themselves out. Probably something for another thread though.

How do we begin to count the government’s failings? A non-comprehensive list would include: going into lockdown too late, twice; coming out of lockdown too fast; hiving off test and trace in questionable contracts to the private sector, which has stunted our ability to control the virus; sending potentially infected hospital patients back into care homes; keeping airports open; not providing people with the financial means to self-isolate; telling people to “Eat Out to Help Out”, which may have driven a Covid spike; telling us to “get back to work” in August; ignoring advice over schools and universities. Boris Johnson has repeatedly scorned scientific advice to act early, fast and hard, instead waiting until things are out of control before taking measures.
Click to expand...
 
They don’t actually have to pass Covid legislation through parliament. They’ve chosen to do so, I mean generally it is a better idea. But in a case like this - I.e a rapidly emerging new situation - it would be entirely justifiable to use emergency legislation. Labour would not be able to kick up a fuss, and it’s fairly easy to paint backbenchers as dangerous idiots. Because they are.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
More complex than that. Some backbench MPs would have resisted any new restrictions as they're against lockdown and would have tried to force a vote on it, and also there's a power play going on to replace Johnson, so anything he does is going to get some of his party angry atm.
Click to expand...
Been rumbled in any case:

www.mirror.co.uk

Top Tory claims PM deliberately waited to announce Tier 4 until MPs went home

Charles Walker, Vice Chair of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, claims the Government knew it intended to 'cancel' Christmas plans on Wednesday
www.mirror.co.uk www.mirror.co.uk
 
StoneRoad said:
This winter solstice (note : NOT christmas, I'm an atheist and don't observe any religion's holy days) is indeed something to celebrate.

However, this year celebrations will be confined to my own house ...
unless we've been lucky enough to have been vaccinated already.
All the elder generation are gone, and the two youngest members of OH's family are still shielding with their household.
That just leaves "my" generation ...

tbh, I'm quite happy to give the wider "family" celebrations a miss this year.

Despite the fact I own and run a workshop based business, I've been working from home since early March, with very limited interactions with my team. I'm quite happy to continue in the same fashion until the science says otherwise. ie I've been vaccinated and I've allowed enough time for my immune system to have been "trained" ...
Click to expand...
If your interested live stream on 21st 22nd 8,45 am, Sun at Newgrange:

 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
More complex than that. Some backbench MPs would have resisted any new restrictions as they're against lockdown and would have tried to force a vote on it, and also there's a power play going on to replace Johnson, so anything he does is going to get some of his party angry atm.
Click to expand...

twat of an mp locally (not sure i'd want to go as far as calling him 'my mp' is saying parliament should be recalled
 
Even if keeping quiet until last night was a pragmatic choice to ensure the necessary lockdown passed into law, it’s clear that johnson knew what would be necessary back on Wednesday when he ridiculed starmer for the crazy idea of cancelling Xmas? Is that right?
So is there any excuse for that extra little flourish of cuntishness or was that just for sport.
 
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