Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[LDC]

Patient of mine the other day, about my age, previously fit and healthy. Did some time in ICU they're totally fucking traumatised from. Now at home, using a wheelchair, and awaiting a likely limb amputation due to covid related complications. They had been very careful and thinks most likely it that it was caught from shopping or a cafe. Yeah, an anecdote not data, but fuck right off with this moaning about the pubs and ordering loads of drinks at the last minute to try and game the rules.

 

[robsean]

The mooted return of spectator sport on 2/12 strikes me as a marvellous idea.

 

[Teaboy]

At this stage of the pandemic is pointless arguing that any enclosed space with multiple people in will not pose a risk. The more people from different households that are in there and the less well ventilated it is the higher the risk.

Indoors hospitality is a clear risk and there is no getting away from it. What doesn't help was all those 'We wouldn't be doing it if we didn't think it was safe' comments coming from the government back in June and July. Managing risk is one thing make false claims of safety is another all together.

 

[Supine]

Come off it. If I've been in the pub all evening another hour isn't going to be more dangerous.

It would be an hour of risk more dangerous.

 

[The39thStep]

Why do you think they're closing pubs etc. then? The government would avoid that if at all possible, and in fact they have tried to, to the detriment of infection rates. Just because you went to a few that you thought seemed OK doesn't mean anything.

The same that

Why do you think they're closing pubs etc. then? The government would avoid that if at all possible, and in fact they have tried to, to the detriment of infection rates. Just because you went to a few that you thought seemed OK doesn't mean anything.

I’m out just finished a meal but I’ve got very little connection here so have to come back

 

[elbows]

Thats entirely up to you and I’m not going to enter a slanging match about wankers . I read your posts learn a lot but feel free to have an option , I’m sure you wouldn’t want to deny me that and discussion can take place , with or with out you on a civil basis . Your general line has been that evidence of pubs being a problem in themselves was inconclusive but that following the logic that we can’t wait for conclusive figures in order to cut transmission closed locations that have people in them should be closed . My view is that the government isn’t following your view and is cherry picking areas that can be closed ie you can have a warehouse of people in B&Q with less restrictions than a pub , you can have gyms open but not a local cafe . I don’t think it’s wrong to question inconsistencies.

My view has been that evidence has not been firm enough to satisfy everyone, but that enough is known both in theory and in practice to say that hospitality is clearly a very sensible sector to target. Its a no brainer, and countries all around the world have taken action on that front, and got results.

And my view also includes the idea that combinations of measures are required to bring things under control. And that which combinations are chosen depends on governments other priorities in regards the economy and education.

Pubs and restaurants are low-hanging fruit because they are not essential services and they are some of the first things I would target when trying to manage a pandemic. I would have gone further than the government in some other areas, my balancing act would not have been the same as theirs and my timing would certainly have differed, but I do not disagree with the basic principal of choosing which things to target based on a variety of other factors and priorities.

 

[Teaboy]

The mooted return of spectator sport on 2/12 strikes me as a marvellous idea.

I've been thinking about that. I think it should be possible to manage risk with low capacities for out door sports. If it can be done in the palladium than I don't see why it can't be done in small numbers at sports stadia. You can't get much more ventilated than being outside.

 

[StoneRoad]

I've been thinking about that. I think it should be possible to manage risk with low capacities for out door sports. If it can be done in the palladium than I don't see why it can't be done in small numbers at sports stadia. You can't get much more ventilated than being outside.

Some months back there was an outbreak around, IIRC [or rather, nearish to Chester-le-street]. After investigation, this was traced back to a couple of pubs or WMCs having a football match to raise funds for a charity. Which took place outside. The only time everybody was together was on the touchlines ...

E2A - assuming no porkiepies about hanging out in t'club afterwards. of course ...

 

[editor]

Watching your local non league football team seems infinitely safer than, say, going to the supermarket or getting on a crowded tube.

 

[Espresso]

If they're having a football match and they take the temperature of punters at the gate, there will be inevitable kick offs when people get told to go home and self isolate.

 

[Teaboy]

Some months back there was an outbreak around, IIRC [or rather, nearish to Chester-le-street]. After investigation, this was traced back to a couple of pubs or WMCs having a football match to raise funds for a charity. Which took place outside. The only time everybody was together was on the touchlines ...

Our world beating track n trace system actually tracked and traced something? I find this scenario highly implausible.

This is why the situation would need to be managed.

 

[StoneRoad]

Our world beating track n trace system actually tracked and traced something? I find this scenario highly implausible.

This is why the situation would need to be managed.

Was T&T'ed by the people themselves, I think. either that, or it was at a point in time when T&T was not overloaded and was more or less working as intended - or probably a combination of the two ...

 

[LDC]

Watching your local non league football team seems infinitely safer than, say, going to the supermarket or getting on a crowded tube.

These things don't just happen in some neutral way though, it depends massively on the behaviour of people once there. Will they really socially distance, not chat and get closer during the game, not hug after their team scores, and then not hang out afterwards? Who will enforce stuff like that at games?

Someone trying to justify that what they like doing is safe, or safer than other things that other people like doing, isn't a great road to go down.

 

[robsean]

.......and, by definition, unnecessary travel will be involved in getting there.

 

[frogwoman]

Everyone's got their favourite thing that should be open, if you allow games you'll get people saying why not theatres why not this why not that etc. I actually agree that games shouldn't be that much of a risk but it could spiral very quickly,

 

[editor]

These things don't just happen in some neutral way though, it depends massively on the behaviour of people once there. Will they really socially distance, not chat and get closer during the game, not hug after their team scores, and then not hang out afterwards? Who will enforce stuff like that at games?

With the pubs closed there was nowhere to hang out. But all those activities would happen anyway if those people wanted to - the point is that being able to watch outdoor sports in near-empty grounds with no cover is a minimal risk I say is worth it because of the mental health/health benefits.

 

[editor]

.......and, by definition, unnecessary travel will be involved in getting there.

Not so much if it's a local non league game. I walk there. It's not like people aren't already travelling to go to parks.

 

[editor]

Everyone's got their favourite thing that should be open, if you allow games you'll get people saying why not theatres why not this why not that etc. I actually agree that games shouldn't be that much of a risk but it could spiral very quickly,

Theatres are indoor and usually in city centres, necessitating longer travel and closer contact with other people.

 

[Teaboy]

These things don't just happen in some neutral way though, it depends massively on the behaviour of people once there. Will they really socially distance, not chat and get closer during the game, not hug after their team scores, and then not hang out afterwards? Who will enforce stuff like that at games?

That's why plans would need to be in place and it would need trials to see how it goes. It shouldn't be beyond our wit to develop a system that works or at least we shouldn't just assume it without trying.

Of course if we are just looking solely at the spread of covid than it would be easier just to say no to all these things and ban everything apart from shopping at Tesco. We have to consider other factors though. We have a chronic mental health and loneliness crisis going on at the moment something which will continue to kill for decades to come, long after covid has gone away.

We had cinemas open all summer and I'd rather be outside in a sparsely populated sports ground than sat in a cinema any day of the week.

 

[frogwoman]

Theatres are indoor and usually in city centres, necessitating longer travel and closer contact with other people.

Yeah I know, but that's not the point I'm making.

 

[brogdale]

My old stomping ground becomes the hardest hit local authority in the country with 631.7 cases per 100,000 people for the week to 18 November.



Other deprived parts of Kent like Thanet & Medway are not far behind; looks like the second wave is breaking in the county.

 

[xenon]

Last orders used to be about 10 mins before closing though. And I would always try and grab an extra pint at last orders! Doesn't everyone?

You usually get about 25 minutes after last orders to drink up. Normally I'm on the shorts by then anyway.

 

[elbows]

Our world beating track n trace system actually tracked and traced something? I find this scenario highly implausible.

This is why the situation would need to be managed.

Was T&T'ed by the people themselves, I think. either that, or it was at a point in time when T&T was not overloaded and was more or less working as intended - or probably a combination of the two ...

No matter how rubbish the national general contact tracing system has been, far more goes on than just that side of things.

For example various systems exist for managing outbreaks tied to specific locations. Local health protection teams are supposed to get involved with those. We probably dont detect and report on anything like all of them, but we still find plenty.

Aside from sporadic articles in the press, one way that stuff is reported is via the weekly PHE surveillance report, which has this section:

Information on acute respiratory infection (ARI) incidents is based on situations reported to PHE Health Protection Teams (HPTs). These include:

• confirmed outbreaks of acute respiratory infections ie two or more laboratory confirmed cases (SARS-CoV-2, influenza or other respiratory pathogens) linked to a particular setting
• setting situations where an outbreak is suspected
  All suspected outbreaks are further investigated by the HPT in liaison with local partners and a significant proportion do not meet the criteria of a confirmed outbreak. For example if suspected cases test negative for COVID19 or other respiratory pathogens, or cases are subsequently found not to have direct links to the setting. Since Pillar 2 testing became open to everyone during week 21 more incidents of mild disease have been detected in settings with healthy young populations.
  Processes for reporting ARI incidents vary between PHE Centres.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/936671/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w47_FINAL.PDF

The overall data they share via such reports is too vague to get our teeth into much, but the authorities have the detail of each of those outbreaks, which venues they involved etc. Still only a fraction of the full picture, but much more than some would assume is discovered, because the not unreasonable views about how crap test & trace has been overall is not the full story.

 

[xenon]

Students are no longer included in their university’s town figures now, I gather. They’re down as living back with their parents even though they’re still actually in halls!

Seriously? They only just changed that a week or 2 ago to the opposite. Which supposedly accounted for some jumps in case figures and should have been the way it was done from the beginning. i.e. where you currently live is where the case is recorded.

e2a ignore, have seen elbows clarification.

 

[belboid]

Seriously? They only just changed that a week or 2 ago to the opposite. Which supposedly accounted for some jumps in case figures and should have been the way it was done from the beginning. i.e. where you currently live is where the case is recorded.

It seems my informant may have got it arse over tit. Tho considering they want to send the fuckers home from next week, it seems fairly pointless to have done it now.

 

[elbows]

Watching your local non league football team seems infinitely safer than, say, going to the supermarket or getting on a crowded tube.

My view on such things doesn't involve much comparison of risks between one setting and another. For me its more about the current levels of virus in the community, and the state of things like hospital capacity and mass testing.

Below a certain level of community infection, and with other systems working well, I would have a much more relaxed attitude towards pubs and restaurants being open, so I would certainly have a more positive approach to spectator sports under those conditions too.

 

[kalidarkone]

(This exchange is from page 350 -- apologies )





I read that arricle and it's a shocker

Could you maybe explain though, why you might think leaving a union is going to help any healthcare professional in any way??

I do get why the union doesn't come out of that story well in any way , but surely? the only way to improve, even a bit, a union's effectiveness is by staying in it and by some members having a bit of time to be active ...... I know most members will be too busy -- but my point stands I think .......

I've been in a union since 1994 and the only one that was good was the Royal College Of Midwives.
I've been in GMB since 2017 and now that things have become so critical working in healthcare.....I need to know that my monthly subscription is paying someone to fight for me...for better pay....for better conditions....and with covid for regular testing. I've not seen any evidence of any of this....so what the fuck am I paying for? I do not feel supported.

 

[editor]

Yeah I know, but that's not the point I'm making.

You either go for complete lockdown - and that would have to include tube/bus travel/shopping because they all feel a lot less safe than standing in a park watching a football game - or you find areas which have a low risk attached as a compromise to help loneliness/mental health etc.

 

[elbows]

It seems my informant may have got it arse over tit. Tho considering they want to send the fuckers home from next week, it seems fairly pointless to have done it now.

As I said earlier, they also backdated the fix to apply to all results from September 1st.

 

[editor]

My view on such things doesn't involve much comparison of risks between one setting and another. For me its more about the current levels of virus in the community, and the state of things like hospital capacity and mass testing.

Below a certain level of community infection, and with other systems working well, I would have a much more relaxed attitude towards pubs and restaurants being open, so I would certainly have a more positive approach to spectator sports under those conditions too.

Well, yes. I wouldn't expect football to be allowed if we were at the highest level of infection.