Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[killer b]

I once went for a celebration meal at Jumbo floating restaurant in Hong Kong and it lasted 6 hours, endless small courses, one exciting one was the broccoli course, a bowl with a single floret in it. That kind of thing could catch on here...

You're describing a tasting menu - that has already caught on here.

 

[Teaboy]

I dunno. It all just seems bereft of ideas. Very downbeat and really quite pessimistic. Not much new there, with the only thing that seems a step forward is the mass testing roll out which appears to have been very successful in Liverpool meaning a chance to move down from tier 3 to tier 2.

 

[Teaboy]

It may sound good, but I really wonder if the capacity is there to do it, or at least do it properly.

Well apparently so. Every local area in tier 3 will be allocated 8 weeks or something like that. I guess the ability to deliver this will be conditional on how many areas end up in tier 3.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

You're describing a tasting menu - that has already caught on here.

Not sure how many regulars at my local would fancy the broccoli course, but if sausages came first, followed by a chip course and so on...

 

[andysays]

Well apparently so. Every local area in tier 3 will be allocated 8 weeks or something like that. I guess the ability to deliver this will be conditional on how many areas end up in tier 3.

And the danger there is that they will allocate areas to tiers based on testing capacity rather than any other consideration.

Decisions around tiers already seem somewhat arbitrary, or at least the reasoning is less than transparent; this is likely to make it even worse

 

[Spandex]

So here are the new restrictions and tier levels: Local restriction tiers: what you need to know

It looks like it has the same basic problem as the old tier system: in tier 1 the restrictions are at a level that won't stop Covid outbreaks. Tier 2 will do something, but not enough. Tier 3 is getting there and will probably flatten the curve, if not bring it down. That means where things are bad action is taken, but where things aren't yet bad the plan is for things to get bad before taking anything approaching effective action. It's a reactive system rather than a proactive system and is likely to lead to another lockdown, and the deaths that means, before the vaccination programme is rolled out.

It'll be interesting to see what tiers places are put in. Leicester was locked down in August when it hit 42.2 cases per 100,000. There's no local council in England with such such a low level at the moment. With restrictions likely to be eased over Xmas, I guess it's time to start planning for lockdown 2021.

 

[miss direct]

Yes, he seemed to say that drinks can only be purchased when having a substantial meal. This seems to be a shift away from it just being enough for the venue to serve meals.

But that was the requirement before. In tier 3 anyway. Or is this something else?

 

[two sheds]

You're describing a tasting menu - that has already caught on here.

Do you just spit the broccoli out like with wine? I could live with that.

 

[frogwoman]

But that's what I meant earlier about based on risk. It seems to me that these decisions are not being taken based upon risk.

Yeah I think they stopped pretending it was wholly risk based some time ago

 

[Mation]

These things are already all in place anyway as part of their risk assessments and their licences.

Based on what? On guidance from when?

I'm not rubbishing anyone's risk assessments, but wondering how often/if they change, and how easily, given shifting understanding of the pandemic, and how nuanced the guidance is.

At my (completely indoor) workplace we've got lots of comprehensive risk assessments based on fomites and social distancing, but nothing on airborne transmission. I don't know whether/at what point they might update that or be required to.

Have mostly outdoor places already done risk assessments that consider airborne transmission for their indoor bits? Is it required? Are there any recommendations or specifications beyond numbers of people? Are there any checks on the risk assessments? What's the process?

(These are general questions and concerns, rather than specifically aimed at you )

 

[Teaboy]

But that was the requirement before. In tier 3 anyway. Or is this something else?

I think they've changed the wording. Whereas before it was worded to make it seem like all you needed was the place to serve meals to now saying you can only buy drinks along with a meal.

tbh. I'll be amazed if any pubs in tier 2 bother to open under these guidelines. There doesn't seem to be any consideration of outdoors v indoors either which is a real kick in the teeth to all those places that have invested in upgrading their outdoor spaces for the winter.

Not much different for restaurants though so they should be able to open OK in tiers 1 and 2.

 

[maomao]

You're describing a tasting menu - that has already caught on here.

It's dim sum. Also quite popular here in certain circles.

 

[elbows]

It'll be interesting to see what tiers places are put in. Leicester was locked down in August when it hit 42.2 cases per 100,000. There's no local council in England with such such a low level at the moment. With restrictions likely to be eased over Xmas, I guess it's time to start planning for lockdown 2021.

I expect they hope that infections caused by Christmas relaxation are more than offset by school/uni holidays over a longer period.

My expectations for the future are somewhat flexible in that my attitude towards Christmas relaxations will depend on the levels of infection in the community as we enter that period. And we still dont know how much worse the winter weather will make things, it would be expected to change human behaviour in a way that will require more measures to compensate against this. Likewise we dont know what level of non-Covid winter pressure the NHS will face, which can also change the sorts of equations the government consider.

 

[editor]

But everyone has a different thing they like / that helps them mentally so some people are going to want religious services / buildings open, some people are going to want football etc. Don't get me wrong I'm desperate for stuff to be open but I don't think you can argue there's no risk attached.

I've never argued that there is no risk attached. I've just stated my opinion that I feel there is less risk when I'm stood in a field watching Peckham Town play than when I'm on a tube/bus/busy shop.

And for what it's worth, I think 4,000 is too high too, unless it's a very big ground with loads of space and loads of wide entrances.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I've never argued that there is no risk attached. I've just stated my opinion that I feel there is less risk when I'm stood in a field watching Peckham Town play than when I'm on a tube/bus/busy shop.

And for what it's worth, I think 4,000 is too high too, unless it's a very big ground with loads of space and loads of wide entrances.

It's limited to whichever is lower: 50% capacity, or either 4,000 people outdoors or 1,000 people indoors, so it'll need to be a fairly large ground to allow 4,000 in.

 

[Mation]

And we still dont know how much worse the winter weather will make things, it would be expected to change human behaviour in a way that will require more measures to compensate against this.

Met Office long range forecast up to 21 December is essentially (and understandably) a horoscope. But at the moment it looks like they're not expecting anything unusual for the time of year. (I've no idea how early unusual deviations can be predicted.)

 

[Teaboy]

Based on what? On guidance from when?

I'm not rubbishing anyone's risk assessments, but wondering how often/if they change, and how easily, given shifting understanding of the pandemic, and how nuanced the guidance is.

At my (completely indoor) workplace we've got lots of comprehensive risk assessments based on fomites and social distancing, but nothing on airborne transmission. I don't know whether/at what point they might update that or be required to.

Have mostly outdoor places already done risk assessments that consider airborne transmission for their indoor bits? Is it required? Are there any recommendations or specifications beyond numbers of people? Are there any checks on the risk assessments? What's the process?

(These are general questions and concerns, rather than specifically aimed at you )

The various sports governing bodies have been doing vast amounts of work behind the scenes to get to this place. They have been vocally very frustrated that up until this point they feel that work has been ignored.

I don't know the exact ins and outs and clearly someone like Liverpool FC will have a more advanced and detailed strategy then some small local basketball club that gets 30 spectators.

I doubt supermarkets, diy stores, clothes shops etc have the level of assessment your place of work has gone into yet they will all be open and welcoming customers come December.

 

[brogdale]

Holy moly, N. Kent & Inner Essex are an absolute shitshow and in a different league to the rest of the South East:

 

[frogwoman]

The various sports governing bodies have been doing vast amounts of work behind the scenes to get to this place. They have been vocally very frustrated that up until this point they feel that work has been ignored.

I don't know the exact ins and outs and clearly someone like Liverpool FC will have a more advanced and detailed strategy then some small local basketball club that gets 30 spectators.

I doubt supermarkets, diy stores, clothes shops etc have the level of assessment your place of work has gone into yet they will all be open and welcoming customers come December.

DIY stores are already open.

 

[2hats]

Met Office long range forecast up to 21 December is essentially (and understandably) a horoscope. But at the moment it looks like they're not expecting anything unusual for the time of year. (I've no idea how early unusual deviations can be predicted.)

Fairly strong La Niña forecast until at least February 2021. So likely milder/wetter/stormier weather rocking up for the UK through winter/spring 2021.

 

[ska invita]

What are SAGE and ALT SAGE saying about this, anyone know? Are they going along with these end of Lockdown to Tier plans?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Let's be honest the whole of England should in tiers 2 & 3.

But if tier 1 was allowed for counties under 100 cases per 100k, that would be Cornwall, Dorset, Isle of Wight & Suffolk, and that's it.

 

[blameless77]

Students are no longer included in their university’s town figures now, I gather. They’re down as living back with their parents even though they’re still actually in halls!

I'm pretty sure it's the other way round

 

[Boudicca]

that would be Cornwall, Dorset, Isle of Wight & Suffolk, and that's it.

BCP (Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole) isn't looking great at the moment, although the figures are going down now. So our tier would depend on whether we are included in Dorset or not.

But I'm glad the 'rule of 6' outdoors is back. I didn't really understand why I was only allowed to meet one friend at a time. I go to campervan meetups in the New Forest sometimes and since everyone has their own gear, it's pretty safe socialising.

 

[LDC]

I didn't really understand why I was only allowed to meet one friend at a time. I go to campervan meetups in the New Forest sometimes and since everyone has their own gear, it's pretty safe socialising.

Do you really not understand that? It's quite simple, more people meet together = higher risk.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Aye, it's not just about the X number of hours you spend in each other's company, it's also the getting there and back, and the "oh, well, we're out now so might as well do Y and Z too...".

And sure, lots of individuals will be very good even when going out, but the more people who go out, the more chances there are for someone to cut corners or just fuck up because humans fuck up sometimes.

 

[Boudicca]

Do you really not understand that? It's quite simple, more people meet together = higher risk.

Well yes of course, but I guess I was looking at it from my perspective which would be a very tame socially distanced gathering or walk.

 

[Looby]

BCP (Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole) isn't looking great at the moment, although the figures are going down now. So our tier would depend on whether we are included in Dorset or not.

Exactly, in BCP there are areas like Christchurch with low rates which brings down the overall figures but those hotspots are worrying.

 

[killer b]

I have never seen a socially distanced gathering remain socially distanced for very long, I have to say

 

[Boudicca]

Exactly, in BCP there are areas like Christchurch with low rates which brings down the overall figures but those hotspots are worrying.

Am I the only one choosing where to go shopping based on the hotspot map?