Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

The following SAGE meeting of November 12th looked at the paper I previously linked to, but what they say is largely already covered by my previous quotes so I will highlight some different bits instead:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/937450/S0881_Sixty-seventh_SAGE_meeting_on_Covid-19.pdf

Changing patterns in testing continue to make it hard to interpret changes in confirmed case numbers. As testing becomes more locally-led, the application of Pillar 2 testing is varying more from place to place. As a result, it is very difficult to interpret changes in pillar 2 testing data in different parts of the country.

SAGE noted progress on wastewater testing for SARs-CoV-2, which can be used to detect traces of the virus in sewage and therefore potentially provide an early warning of a local outbreak. Testing has been rolled out across several wastewater treatment sites in the UK, covering approximately 22 per cent of the population in England. SAGE will consider this further at a future meeting.

They also had a look at the mutations in mink stuff but I have run out of energy so am not quoting from that bit.

 

[circleline]

So, Swale in Kent; the latest COVID hotspot. Sheerness and Leysdown, Faversham and Sittingbourne:

Swale in Kent becomes England's Covid hotspot after cases rise

Rate of 631.7 cases per 100,000 blamed on deprivation and ‘wilful disregard’ of rules

www.theguardian.com

There are 3 x prisons in Swale. Elmley is, primarily, a remand centre and:

Swale's 3 prisons and the truth about area's surging COVID infection rate

Some residents blame prisons for the area having the second worst-hit COVID-19 in the country

www.kentlive.news

" More than 90 inmates have contracted COVID-19 at HMP Elmley alone, where an entire wing has been closed. "

Yet:

The worsening situation has prompted Swale Borough Council to call an emergency meeting, with leader Roger Truelove using the announcement to accuse people in the area of displaying a “wilful disregard of the rules”.

However public health professor Jackie Cassell has said the prison cases are making only a "limited contribution".

 

[brogdale]

Holy moly, N. Kent & Inner Essex are an absolute shitshow and in a different league to the rest of the South East:

View attachment 240138

Not sure that the hack responsible for this piece has ever been to Sittingbourne, Sheppey or Fav.

 

[frogwoman]

@The39thStep

I think you need to edit your post at the bottom of page 854 mate, something has gone wrong with the quoting and I only saw the rest of it when I pressed 'click to expand'

 

[CH1]

Not sure that the hack responsible for this piece has ever been to Sittingbourne, Sheppey or Fav.

View attachment 240174

I had been under the impression that even the people not in prison were somewhat like Sam Peckinpah's Straw Dogs.
They's have a Guardian reporter for breakfast - assuming they lacked the mantrap.

 

[Mation]

I had been under the impression that even the people not in prison were somewhat like Sam Peckinpah's Straw Dogs.
They's have a Guardian reporter for breakfast - assuming they lacked the mantrap.

What do you mean?

 

[chilango]

Timeline for the next few weeks/months

(Mostly) Deprived areas move into Tier 3 restrictions. They don't have any disposable cash to chuck into the economy anyway right? Plus the plebs can't be trusted to behave themselves.

(Mostly) More affluent areas move into Tier 2. Middle class boomers flock to the shops en masse to prepare for a "family christmas", meet their friends for lunch at Zizzi's a couple of proseccos later they all pop round Joan's house for a couple of sherries because "it can't hurt". After all they're law abiding sensible folk who've paid their dues.

Chain pubs desperate to make up a shortfall offer crazy promotions on "Christmas non-party" bookings. Besuited mockneys in the "financial sector" swarm town centres getting pissed up and leary.

Meanwhile at the Universities thousands of students are gathered together for "mass testing" and then dispersed around the country.

A knackered, scared and confused populace gather with their elderly relatives at Christmas.

Johnson mumbles incherently something about " you probably shouldn't go out on NYE" during his televised address on Boxing Day. Nobody sees it, The Great Escape is on the other channel.

The broadsheets publish big glossy supplements on "quarantine free" ski destinations.

Noone is quite sure when the tiers kick back in, or even if they do. Apart from some people on the internet, they definitely know.

Some people gather in town centres on NYE. The pubs chuck out at 11.00 pm. Lots of street drinking follows. Some aggro with the cops.

Schools reopen

Hundreds of thousands of students travel all around the country again.

Covid cases soar. Johnson mutters somenthing about the selfish behavious on NYE means "we might have to think about introducing some stricter measures again, maybe, if you can't behave yourselves".

People start to talk about a looming "Lockdown III".

Half-term comes and goes with schools staying open, Gove announces that all exams will definitely take place. Relieved private school parents across Tier 2 go their quarantine free ski holdays.

Schools reopen.

Schools close a week later for a "factory reset" of two weeks.

Johnson tests positive for Covid again.

Lockdown III starts at the end of February...

 

[Badgers]

Lockdown III starts at the end of February...

Optimistic

 

[maomao]

Johnson tests positive for Covid again.

I reckon they'll be giving the cabinet the vaccine early on whether they tell the rest of us about it or not.

 

[frogwoman]

I reckon it will fall apart by the end of December tbh and people will be back to doing their own thing much like the summer. Johnson to be out by the end of January and the rest of the next few months to be taken up with finding a new Tory leader while things spiral

 

[two sheds]

Not convinced he will go but yes that sounds quite possible.

 

[frogwoman]

I am tbh. February at a push

 

[two sheds]

liked in hope then

 

[frogwoman]

Be careful what you wish for, could be Steve Baker or someone

 

[two sheds]

Eta: although it might be better if he limped along for a couple more years

 

[elbows]

Be careful what you wish for, could be Steve Baker or someone

No it won't be anyone like that. And if somehow it was they would soon change their tune on coronavirus, because there is a big difference between posturing from the margins and actually having to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. He's got more chance of being the next Doctor Who, and is currently being mocked for looking at the European convention on human rights for a way to fight against lockdown legislation despite being an arch brexiteer.

 

[cupid_stunt]

No it won't be anyone like that. And if somehow it was they would soon change their tune on coronavirus, because there is a big difference between posturing from the margins and actually having to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. He's got more chance of being the next Doctor Who, and is currently being mocked for looking at the European convention on human rights for a way to fight against lockdown legislation despite being an arch brexiteer.

Agree with most of that, although the European convention on human rights is nothing to do with the EU.

 

[elbows]

Agree with most of that, although the European convention on human rights is nothing to do with the EU.

I should have mentioned that he voted to repeal the ECHR in 2016.

 

[CH1]

What do you mean?

I mean that resdents of the Isle of Sheppey, many of whom work in the prisons, have a reputation of being spiky and aloof. Seems likely you have not seen or read about the film Straw Dogs - which exaggerated such behaviour to criminally violent degree, though somewhat unfairly in my opinion set the location in Cornwall. Starred Dustin Hoffman, Susan George and a mantrap.

For your information here is a synoposis - possibly from Wikipedia via Google

David Sumner (Dustin Hoffman), a mild-mannered academic from the United States, marries Amy (Susan George), an Englishwoman. In order to escape a hectic stateside lifestyle, David and his wife relocate to the small town in rural Cornwall where Amy was raised. There, David is ostracized by the brutish men of the village, including Amy's old flame, Charlie (Del Henney). Eventually the taunts escalate, and two of the locals rape Amy. This sexual assault awakes a shockingly violent side of David.

PS bear in mind I was responding to the post above mine, viz

Not sure that the hack responsible for this piece has ever been to Sittingbourne, Sheppey or Fav.

 

[andysays]

Timeline for the next few weeks/months

(Mostly) Deprived areas move into Tier 3 restrictions. They don't have any disposable cash to chuck into the economy anyway right? Plus the plebs can't be trusted to behave themselves.

(Mostly) More affluent areas move into Tier 2. Middle class boomers flock to the shops en masse to prepare for a "family christmas", meet their friends for lunch at Zizzi's a couple of proseccos later they all pop round Joan's house for a couple of sherries because "it can't hurt". After all they're law abiding sensible folk who've paid their dues.

Chain pubs desperate to make up a shortfall offer crazy promotions on "Christmas non-party" bookings. Besuited mockneys in the "financial sector" swarm town centres getting pissed up and leary.

Meanwhile at the Universities thousands of students are gathered together for "mass testing" and then dispersed around the country.

A knackered, scared and confused populace gather with their elderly relatives at Christmas.

Johnson mumbles incherently something about " you probably shouldn't go out on NYE" during his televised address on Boxing Day. Nobody sees it, The Great Escape is on the other channel.

The broadsheets publish big glossy supplements on "quarantine free" ski destinations.

Noone is quite sure when the tiers kick back in, or even if they do. Apart from some people on the internet, they definitely know.

Some people gather in town centres on NYE. The pubs chuck out at 11.00 pm. Lots of street drinking follows. Some aggro with the cops.

Schools reopen

Hundreds of thousands of students travel all around the country again.

Covid cases soar. Johnson mutters somenthing about the selfish behavious on NYE means "we might have to think about introducing some stricter measures again, maybe, if you can't behave yourselves".

People start to talk about a looming "Lockdown III".

Half-term comes and goes with schools staying open, Gove announces that all exams will definitely take place. Relieved private school parents across Tier 2 go their quarantine free ski holdays.

Schools reopen.

Schools close a week later for a "factory reset" of two weeks.

Johnson tests positive for Covid again.

Lockdown III starts at the end of February...

(((Joan)))

 

[Sue]

Timeline for the next few weeks/months

(Mostly) Deprived areas move into Tier 3 restrictions. They don't have any disposable cash to chuck into the economy anyway right? Plus the plebs can't be trusted to behave themselves.

(Mostly) More affluent areas move into Tier 2. Middle class boomers flock to the shops en masse to prepare for a "family christmas", meet their friends for lunch at Zizzi's a couple of proseccos later they all pop round Joan's house for a couple of sherries because "it can't hurt". After all they're law abiding sensible folk who've paid their dues.

Chain pubs desperate to make up a shortfall offer crazy promotions on "Christmas non-party" bookings. Besuited mockneys in the "financial sector" swarm town centres getting pissed up and leary.

Meanwhile at the Universities thousands of students are gathered together for "mass testing" and then dispersed around the country.

A knackered, scared and confused populace gather with their elderly relatives at Christmas.

Johnson mumbles incherently something about " you probably shouldn't go out on NYE" during his televised address on Boxing Day. Nobody sees it, The Great Escape is on the other channel.

The broadsheets publish big glossy supplements on "quarantine free" ski destinations.

Noone is quite sure when the tiers kick back in, or even if they do. Apart from some people on the internet, they definitely know.

Some people gather in town centres on NYE. The pubs chuck out at 11.00 pm. Lots of street drinking follows. Some aggro with the cops.

Schools reopen

Hundreds of thousands of students travel all around the country again.

Covid cases soar. Johnson mutters somenthing about the selfish behavious on NYE means "we might have to think about introducing some stricter measures again, maybe, if you can't behave yourselves".

People start to talk about a looming "Lockdown III".

Half-term comes and goes with schools staying open, Gove announces that all exams will definitely take place. Relieved private school parents across Tier 2 go their quarantine free ski holdays.

Schools reopen.

Schools close a week later for a "factory reset" of two weeks.

Johnson tests positive for Covid again.

Lockdown III starts at the end of February...

And some people ('fools' I call them) reckon we've nothing to look forward to...

 

[miss direct]

Ufff it's all so

(((Joan)))

I want to come to Joan's for a sherry. Oh whoops, not allowed.

 

[chilango]

And some people ('fools' I call them) reckon we've nothing to look forward to...

They hate Britain.

 

[chilango]

Ufff it's all so

I want to come to Joan's for a sherry. Oh whoops, not allowed.

You could probably get a gig as Joan's "help".

 

[Sue]

You could probably get a gig as Joan's "help".

Sweet sherry and cheese footballs FTW.

 

[frogwoman]

Not sure about that tbh. Maidenhead was about to go into Tier 2 or 3 when the lockdown was called. There's a lot of places that were Tier 1 round here that I suspect will end up in stronger restrictions this time around. Besides a lot of places in the tier 3 areas have Tory MPs so not all down to political considerations imo

 

[miss direct]

Twiglets and After 8s please. And nuts but no nutcracker.

 

[frogwoman]

I just suspect it will get to a certain point where enforcement won't be possible regardless

 

[elbows]

I'll stick this quote here since its Hancock acknowledging that excess deaths is the true measure.

The health secretary, who's answering questions from MPs, is asked about his confidence in the accuracy of death certificates as a measure.

He says it's an "absolutely reasonable" question and it was a "serious challenge", adding the only true measure is "excess" deaths.

"Excess" deaths are the difference between the deaths seen this year and the average over the previous five years for the same weeks.

From 12:36 of https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55055295

And the latest graph from Deaths in UK 'a fifth higher than normal levels'

 

[chilango]

I just suspect it will get to a certain point where enforcement won't be possible regardless

I don't think enforcement has ever been possible. They know that, hence the cack-handed "nudge" strategy.