belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
don't worry, nobody's going to move from one three household bubble to another to another, nobody. With a quick call in at the pub between groups, maybe for a formal handover.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
Don't go to work when sick, 'peculiar' Brits told
People have tendency to soldier on, potentially making colleagues sick, health secretary says.
www.bbc.co.uk
Always good to see the idea of the mass diagnostics being used to actually deal with flu in future rather than the previous shit approach. But this is another of my common themes so no need for me to say much more about that I dont think.
As for going to work when ill, to change it we need a different management culture attitude towards illness, a better sick pay system, more job security in general, less terrible understaffing issues at essential workplaces at the best of times. Then with all those things in place yes, there is also some work that can be done on workers attitudes. But I wouldn't insult their intelligence by attempting this if they still live and work in an atmosphere of mixed messages, pressure to do the wrong thing, and insecurity.
It probably won't make that much of a difference i reckon. Maybe a bit of a bump mid January.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Or, then again, the inter-generational mixing might just be enough to seed a third wave? Who knows; we're not epidemiologists, are we?
Don't go to work when sick, 'peculiar' Brits told
People have tendency to soldier on, potentially making colleagues sick, health secretary says.www.bbc.co.uk
Always good to see the idea of the mass diagnostics being used to actually deal with flu in future rather than the previous shit approach. But this is another of my common themes so no need for me to say much more about that I dont think.
As for going to work when ill, to change it we need a different management culture attitude towards illness, a better sick pay system, more job security in general, less terrible understaffing issues at essential workplaces at the best of times. Then with all those things in place yes, there is also some work that can be done on workers attitudes. But I wouldn't insult their intelligence by attempting this if they still live and work in an atmosphere of mixed messages, pressure to do the wrong thing, and insecurity.
Absolutely spot on. The toxic culture of presentism that we have which has been hammered down by management. How many companies out there will stick someone on ssp from day one of being ill?
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Yep, the increasing South East hospital admissions must be down to north Kent & south-west Essex, it's certainly not happening around here.
Sure, we're all novices at this, but I can't see the point in just assuming doom. While there'll be more mixing with family etc, there'll be less/no mixing in schools and the workplace. The government will try and keep things pretty tight both sides, and pub restrictions are going to be pretty strict if they open at all. It's not very predictable at all what the christmas break is going to do to infection rates.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
All true, but I'd imagine that the policy/decison making around the relaxation for this festival were far more politically based than they were epidemiological.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And as I've probably said already, they have a bit of extra wiggle room when doing the sums because of the effect of school holidays.
My own views on Christmas measures are strongly affected by the levels of infection in the community at the time, so my opinions are more likely to make themselves clearer and louder nearer to the time.
Maybe it's a bit of both? People are going to take things into their own hands at christmas if they aren't given permission, so there's good reasons for a directed and controlled relaxation of restrictions. Will they do it right? Unlikely, but maybe this time.
And even if they don't get the balance right on purpose, it could still work out largely ok. or, at least, as ok as things can be right now. There was lots of bell ringing and shouts of 'doom, doom' after the VE celebrations, and then there wasn't doom. This is obviously a lot more significant event than that, but I think there's a reasonable chance of a similar lack of movement in the infection rates - certainly no reason for total despondency.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
- intergenerational mixing? check
- interregional mixing? check
- alcohol? fuck yeah.
- small spaces with windows shut? check
- anything happening in the couple of weeks after that might make things worse? Hmm. Schools, Universities and workplaces reopening. Does that count?
I know. people were going to mix anyway, but this really is the Government encouraging people to kill their Nan.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
That's probably because the VE celebrations were cancelled.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
Oh I don't know. A handful of people round our way did the hokey-cokey outside in the street while social distancing.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Where?
VE Day 2020: England prepares for lockdown celebrations
How are communities in England preparing to celebrate VE Day in lockdown?
www.bbc.co.uk
It's the government trying to have some influence over the size and type of gatherings that happen. The gatherings were going to happen anyway.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
Some gatherings would have happened anyway, but some people will now put pressure on family members to travel long distances and others will feel pressurised. Still others will think this gives the green light to do whatever they want. The detail of the message (vague enough anyway) will get lost in all the excitement (yea! It's Christmastime!).
Cloo
Banana for scale
The only comment from a government (think it might have been NI rather than England) that made some sense of this was along the lines of 'We are giving people time to plan' and I can see the point that if you say nothing, or don't give any outlines until mid December, or say outright 'no one can see anyone' it'll just be a free for all anyway. So if you give guidelines, at least a reasonable number of people will plan around those I suppose. Still pretty weaksauce and they still ought to say 'But this whole thing will be over quicker and you'll see a lot more of everyone next year if you don't visit anyone outside your household or support bubble at Christmas and just stick to digital contact'.
I agree Kevbad the Bad that allowing visits at all is going to create pressure and stress and a lot of arguments between parts of the family that want a get together and others that had planned not to go but could be guilted into it.
We don't actually celebrate Christmas, but my parents have been stuck abroad since late August and (providing they make it back) will want to see us - it won't create arguments if we say 'no' in our case but I plan only to agree with mitigation, eg it's outdoors, or if indoors is an hour tops and no meal or something at the absolute most.
I agree Kevbad the Bad that allowing visits at all is going to create pressure and stress and a lot of arguments between parts of the family that want a get together and others that had planned not to go but could be guilted into it.
We don't actually celebrate Christmas, but my parents have been stuck abroad since late August and (providing they make it back) will want to see us - it won't create arguments if we say 'no' in our case but I plan only to agree with mitigation, eg it's outdoors, or if indoors is an hour tops and no meal or something at the absolute most.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
My mum's in a nursing home at the other end of the country anyway and the logistics of me seeing her just won't work this year. I just think that if we're not all very careful then Christmas could see a new spike. It might not happen but raising expectation this early on is asking for trouble, and then Brexit. The usual complete absence of real forethought from Johnson & co.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
It will be a little like the students travelling across the country bringing their virus's with them and then, after the break, traveling back with new ones.
Families with vulnerable members better think carefully about this Christmas, a vaccine is just around the corner, why risk getting infected now?
Families with vulnerable members better think carefully about this Christmas, a vaccine is just around the corner, why risk getting infected now?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I found a pretty vivid example relating to some of what I was saying earlier about excess deaths not being a perfect measure in this second wave either, being at risk of the excess being lower than the actual number of covid-19 deaths, eg if its at a time when there are probably less deaths than normal from some other causes.
In the ONS figures for England and Wales that were published today, for the week ending 13th November there were 12,254 deaths in total compared to a 5 year average of 10,350. So that weeks provisional excess would be 1,904. However, looking at their data which shows number of weekly Covid-19 death registrations for the same week ending November 13th, they have 2,466.
Data comes from Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics
In the ONS figures for England and Wales that were published today, for the week ending 13th November there were 12,254 deaths in total compared to a 5 year average of 10,350. So that weeks provisional excess would be 1,904. However, looking at their data which shows number of weekly Covid-19 death registrations for the same week ending November 13th, they have 2,466.
Data comes from Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics
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Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
Something (or things) were going on before 'lockdown 2' started on 5th Nov. Looking at the 7 day average line on the 'new cases by specimen date' chart on the UK Covid Dashboard the line was going up at a steep 70° angle until about 22nd Oct, when it went to a 50° angle, up to a peak on 9th Nov and has been coming down sharply since then.
But beneath that headline there have been a number of things going on. The Tier system was introduced, which had an impact on the severest hit areas once they went into Tier 3. Universities started getting their campus outbreaks under control, but as numbers in student areas started falling, university towns saw some rises in their community figures. As the numbers rose and people saw a new lockdown was imminent more people started taking the whole thing more seriously. As the numbers started coming down in the Tier 3 areas, they were also going up in the Tier 1 areas, especially in the south. There was that big spike in new cases around a week after lockdown eve (I still suspect these are related - as I walked home from work through town on 4th Nov the shops were packed, there were traffic jams, the streets were full of people with bags of shopping, and there was lots of drunkenness in the street outside that night). There's all kind of stuff going on at a local and regional level and in different age groups where things have got better and worse at different times which have affected the overall national picture.
But, yes the line wasn't going up as steeply for a couple of weeks before lockdown and - let's be optimistic - even the half-hearted lockdown 2 looks to be bringing the number of new cases down. I know one day's figures can't be looked at on their own, but today's 11,299 new cases is the lowest figure for quite some time and gives me hope. I'd like to think the death figures will start decreasing soon too.
Shame I don't have the same optimism that the government will put places in appropriate tiers when they're announced on Thursday, opting to put most places in as low a tier as possible because (once again) the economy. Then we can watch where that line goes next...
Mation
real life adventure worth more than pieces of gold
Covid-19: Three households can mix over Christmas in UK
People can form a "Christmas bubble" and mix in homes and outdoors between 23 and 27 December.
www.bbc.co.uk
So up to 6 households can form a bubble? And each of those bubbles could, for 5 days, involve up to 3 alternative/temporary replacement (effectively additional) households, until they return to those households that usually form their bubble?
Someone please tell me I've got that wrong.
No you can only make one big bubble. Not loads of simultaneous bubbles. As I understand it.Covid-19: Three households can mix over Christmas in UK
People can form a "Christmas bubble" and mix in homes and outdoors between 23 and 27 December.www.bbc.co.uk
So up to 6 households can form a bubble? And each of those bubbles could, for 5 days, involve up to 3 alternative/temporary replacement (effectively additional) households, until they return to those households that usually form their bubble?
Someone please tell me I've got that wrong.
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