Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[chilango]

Managing risk? Eg students returning?

Dunno.

Will the risk of processing thousands of students together in a smallish space over a short period of time to take a test (which by the University's admission isn't the most rigorous) outweigh the benefits of potentially identifying students with the virus - on that day - and pulling them out of circulation for a couple of weeks?

I don't know.

...but given as it's been decided to disperse them around the country again I'm not sure there's much choice.

 

[Boudicca]

How easy is it to get a private test these days? One way of minimising the risk might be for those visiting elderly relatively to take a test just before they go.

 

[StoneRoad]

Better still, save the visits until After the elderly rellies have had their jabs and the time to develop full effectiveness has elapsed.
A few extra weeks could make all the difference.

Unless the households planning to mix can prove absence by teat and maintain that status with a strict isolation / quarantine for two weeks.

Otherwise there is going to be a massive spike in cases, again, in January, followed by hospital admissions surging 2 -3 weeks later and finally deaths peaking shortly afterwards. Sometime during the middle part of that process, will be the third attempt to flatten the curve ... possibly the amount of vaccinations done will help to reduce the amount of grannies that will otherwise die.

 

[teuchter]

Better still, save the visits until After the elderly rellies have had their jabs and the time to develop full effectiveness has elapsed.
A few extra weeks could make all the difference.

This is what seems a bit mad to me. If there were no vaccines currently in prospect, then the risk/benefit balance would be rather different.

However, it seems reasonably realistic that the elderly may be able to be given a vaccine that will offer them some protection, within the next couple of months. If that's the case then surely it makes sense to put off a visit, by a relatively short amount of time, in order to be able to make that visit at a time when the risk (hopefully) will be hugely reduced.

 

[chilango]

Given that the vaccines (welcome as they are) are being produced in, by and for neo-liberal capitalism...I'm not sure it's wise to pin our hopes (behaviour wise) on their rapid roll out to us all.

 

[editor]

Given that the vaccines (welcome as they are) are being produced in, by and for neo-liberal capitalism...I'm not sure it's wise to pin our hopes (behaviour wise) on their rapid roll out to us all.

I thought the Oxford one was not-for-profit

 

[weltweit]

Given that the vaccines (welcome as they are) are being produced in, by and for neo-liberal capitalism...I'm not sure it's wise to pin our hopes (behaviour wise) on their rapid roll out to us all.

The Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine is looking most promising because of its better storage requirements, and my understanding is it is to be distributed at cost price. So making it even more attractive.

 

[chilango]

It's not just the profit making aspect, but also about prioritisation, distribution etc.

 

[chilango]

i.e. decisions about who, how. when. where and what will be made according to the logic of neo-liberalism.

 

[killer b]

i.e. decisions about who, how. when. where and what will be made according to the logic of neo-liberalism.

What do you think that would look like?

 

[weltweit]

i.e. decisions about who, how. when. where and what will be made according to the logic of neo-liberalism.

What do you expect that will result in?

My understanding is that at least in the UK, priority will be given to car home residents, their carers, then NHS workers (and possibly patients) including carers, followed by people in vulnerable groups before eventually getting to more general distribution.

 

[chilango]

What do you think that would look like?

Prioritising the economy, followed the politically symbolic vulnerable.

Distribution by DPD, vaccination centres run by Servo with an online booking system powered by AskJeeves or something.

Yes, it's in capital's interest to get things up and running again* but the market isn't very good at managing this kind of thing.

*to a point. Don't underestimate the interests of the disaster capitalists in all this.

 

[chilango]

Even if there's a "not for profit" vaccine there will still be a lot of money to be made and the "hidden hand" (i.e. the market) will be busy passing brown envelopes around...

 

[StoneRoad]

Not to mention a huge grey market in "private" practice - where the £££ you can pay is the determinant, not clinical need nor even societies' need for you to be vaccinated ...

 

[nagapie]

Absolutely. There's very little NHS and community infrastructure to roll out vaccines after 10 years of austerity cutbacks. A few more cool millions to Serco etc to fuck it up.

 

[Supine]

Given that the vaccines (welcome as they are) are being produced in, by and for neo-liberal capitalism...I'm not sure it's wise to pin our hopes (behaviour wise) on their rapid roll out to us all.

how are the communist vaccines doing?

 

[Supine]

Absolutely. There's very little NHS and community infrastructure to roll out vaccines after 10 years of austerity cutbacks. A few more cool millions to Serco etc to fuck it up.

it's being rolled out by NHS. although I'm sure they will be supported by the army and whoever can distribute cold chain DHL etc

 

[nagapie]

it's being rolled out by NHS. although I'm sure they will be supported by the army and whoever can distribute cold chain DHL etc

Actually, I think I did know that. Doesn't change the fact that the reason vaccination programs have been most successful in the past is the structures that can reach out into the communities, especially hard to reach communities, most of which do not exist any more.

 

[chilango]

how are the communist vaccines doing?

Your point?

 

[ska invita]

Considering we only came out of lockdown when hospital admissions were as low as this:


I feel really uncomfortable about the current lifting and going into "Teir 2" - a tier where pubs, restaurants, schools, universities and all shops are open.
I havent followed government dates so far and am trying to weigh up whether to ignore this new shift on the 2nd - anyone got any thoughts?

According to SAGE we're going to have a third wave anyhow because of the five days of Xmas, but a months worth of this before hand seems disastrous to do.
??

 

[Teaboy]

Considering we only came out of lockdown when hospital admissions were as low as this:
View attachment 240356

I feel really uncomfortable about the current lifting and going into "Teir 2" - a tier where pubs, restaurants, schools, universities and all shops are open.
I havent followed government dates so far and am trying to weigh up whether to ignore this new shift on the 2nd - anyone got any thoughts?

Personally I'm not second guessing anything until I've heard tomorrow's announcement about which area into which tier. There is a very good argument that vast swathes of the country should just go straight into tier 3 which is little different than what we have right now. Just more shops open.

As it has been throughout its probably best we continue to exercise our own risk assessment rather than rely on what the government says is safe one day but not the next. I think most people who are regular contributors to this thread are pretty clued up and should trust themselves to make sensible assessments.

 

[ska invita]

Personally I'm not second guessing anything until I've heard tomorrow's announcement about which area into which tier. There is a very good argument that vast swathes of the country should just go straight into tier 3 which is little different than what we have right now. Just more shops open.

As it has been throughout its probably best we continue to exercise our own risk assessment rather than rely on what the government says is safe one day but not the next. I think most people who are regular contributors to this thread are pretty clued up and should trust themselves to make sensible assessments.

im torn....and it has implications on my public facing working life.
I just feel if this was February not December thered be no chance in hell the lockdown would be lifted to Tier 2

 

[elbows]

I'm waiting for the tier decisions too. But on a basic level I think I prefer Frances more cautious lockdown easing in stages, and there is certainly plenty of potential for the plan in England to go wrong.

If they mostly get away with their plan, I think it will only be because lots of people will be more cautious than the rules say they have to be. Lots won't, but they get all the attention so I have to keep going on about those who remain cautious to remind myself and others that they exist and are not a tiny group.

 

[Supine]

I certainly won't be relaxing my behaviour if the rules change here. and so far there is no talk of a return to the big family christmas gathering. I think my mum watching indy sage every week has made her more cautious now than she had been previously

 

[elbows]

I was relieved that my Dad left it till early September to ask whether I would meet him down the pub. If he had asked a month or two earlier then I would have found it harder to say no, but since his timing was crap and he was asking me at a time where the testing system was bucking under the strain, it was much easier to reject this request.

 

[Teaboy]

I do get while people are worried / frustrated with the Christmas plans. It feels like we've been here before with jeopardising hard fought wins for short term gratification. See 'eat out to help out' and 'save the great British summer holiday' both of which certainly helped prise the door back open for the virus.

What stands out about the Christmas plans though is that the devolved governments are on board as well. I can see why they're trying to get ahead of the game but there remains a lot of risk.

 

[chilango]

Slots at our mass testing appear to have run out within 20 minutes of being released...

 

[quimcunx]

Sounds to me like it's just going to cause transport mayhem so I'd rather go and visit family a month or two later without all that and a five day limit, and maybe my more elderly relatives will have been given a vaccine by then meaning a bit less worry about them getting something as a result.

My 99% decision is to stay away at christmas and go in january. But after all the christmas shenanigans will it be possible? My personal complication is I want to support my dad who is facing a long winter caring for dementia mum so stay for about a month. I'll be quite pissed off if I can't travel up in January because everyone else did christmas when I didnt.

 

[thismoment]

Considering we only came out of lockdown when hospital admissions were as low as this:
View attachment 240356

I feel really uncomfortable about the current lifting and going into "Teir 2" - a tier where pubs, restaurants, schools, universities and all shops are open.
I havent followed government dates so far and am trying to weigh up whether to ignore this new shift on the 2nd - anyone got any thoughts?

According to SAGE we're going to have a third wave anyhow because of the five days of Xmas, but a months worth of this before hand seems disastrous to do.
??

Does this graph suggest that if had stayed in lockdown a bit longer (don’t know what a “bit” would be) that we might have got to such few hospital admissions that the virus would’ve been significantly reduced in communities?
(Apologies for my ignorance)

eta: furlough scheme would’ve had to continue at an actually supportive rate for employees and businesses and mental health support

 

[ska invita]

Does this graph suggest that if had stayed in lockdown a bit longer (don’t know what a “bit” would be) that we might have got to such few hospital admissions that the virus would’ve been significantly reduced in communities?
(Apologies for my ignorance)

It was summer holidays and potentially yes - eat out to help out followed by letting schools go back, all without an effective working test and trace system seems to me the biggest problems. From what I can tell