cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
This 3-minute report on covid sniffer dogs was on BBC News this morning.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
Fascinating, ta, really worth watching. As a note they're asking for samples of clothes from as many people as possible who have the virus.
I was a bit concerned about my dog picking it up - very rare I understand, but that doesn't seem to be a problem with these dogs, presumably because they're smelling the body's reaction to the virus rather than the virus itself.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
I was pondering about how accurate they are likely to be, and a quick google search shows preliminary tests suggest nearly 100% accuracy.
And, regarding concerns for the dogs...
'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid
Researchers running Helsinki pilot scheme say dogs can identify virus in seconds
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
350 million smell receptors when we have 5 million I think they said in that video clip?
I do like dogs
ta for that, too, very reassuring
This is already happening - a friend with MS got the call a couple of weeks ago. I think the plan is for it to be more targeted this time though.
No mixing of households (indoors anyway) in Liverpool, Warrington, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough.
Chris Whittey's maps yesterday really did paint a worrying picture in the North. I think it was mentioned upthread but I can't help thinking weather plays a role. Down here it's still warm enough for people to sit in pub gardens with a jumper on.
Stricter Covid rules in Liverpool, Warrington, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough
Stricter measures will be introduced in Liverpool, Warrington, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough.
www.bbc.co.uk
Chris Whittey's maps yesterday really did paint a worrying picture in the North. I think it was mentioned upthread but I can't help thinking weather plays a role. Down here it's still warm enough for people to sit in pub gardens with a jumper on.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
No mixing of households (indoors anyway) in Liverpool, Warrington, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough.
Stricter Covid rules in Liverpool, Warrington, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough
Stricter measures will be introduced in Liverpool, Warrington, Hartlepool and Middlesbrough.www.bbc.co.uk
Chris Whittey's maps yesterday really did paint a worrying picture in the North. I think it was mentioned upthread but I can't help thinking weather plays a role. Down here it's still warm enough for people to sit in pub gardens with a jumper on.
Weather could be playing a part, although it started taking off in the north weeks before the weather changed, and doesn't explain south Wales, where the weather is currently similar to, for example, the south-east.
There's a clickable version of the map in the link below.
Covid cases and deaths today: coronavirus UK map
Are UK coronavirus cases rising in your local area and nationally? Check week-on-week changes across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the latest figures from public health authorities
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Given that the lockdowns in Caerffili and Llanelli appear to have resulted from single incidents, I do wonder how much of this is just random fluctuations, though. Obviously, more densely-populated areas will tend to amplify such events, but the incidence may not be part of a trend.Weather could be playing a part, although it started taking off in the north weeks before the weather changed, and doesn't explain south Wales, where the weather is currently similar to, for example, the south-east.
View attachment 232492
There's a clickable version of the map in the link below.
Covid cases and deaths today: coronavirus UK map
Are UK coronavirus cases rising in your local area and nationally? Check week-on-week changes across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the latest figures from public health authoritieswww.theguardian.com
I also note that on your map, Carmarthenshire - that big blob just in from the Far West of Wales - looks like a plague pit, but in reality the vast bulk of cases are concentrated in Llanelli...although I hear rumours that Carmarthen is edging close to a local lockdown, too.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
About fucking time!
And, that's what they should have done from the start, the muppets.
Plan to simplify Covid lockdown rules with three-tier system is being considered to help public
Ministers admit current restrictions are confusing — and undermining public compliance
inews.co.uk
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
Yes, a couple of my students have siblings with underlying health issues who are receiving regular and detailed updates on local cases so they can shield.
It was warm enough here last week too tbf. The weather has taken a turn for the colder, but only over the last 7 days (and there's been plenty of sunshine)
elbows
Well-Known Member
The pandemic clowns are annoying because they make it harder to talk about these details without them leaping around going 'stuck your domesday scenario up your arse'. Triggle still wont shut up about the 50,000 illustration given by Whitty & Vallance the other week, for example.
Whitty touched on one of the underlying issues in the press conference yesterday. When it comes to exponential growth, a key factor is what the doubling rate is for that growth. And they estimated this wrongly during a key period in late February/early March, which strongly contributed to their inaccurate sense of what stage the epidemic had reached then, lockdown being so late, etc. They thought it was a week to double when it was actually taking half of that time (these are approximations from my memory).
This time around they will be very keen to avoid that mistake. But perhaps they will overcompensate, and when they mention a weeks doubling time the actual doubling time could be quite a bit longer. And of course its also likely to vary by region, and should certainly vary when new measures are brought in, assuming peoples behaviours actually change under the new measures.
These and some other factors mean that its probably not as straightforward as simply giving a lesson about what exponential growth means this time. Because we know that when left to their own devices in a susceptible population, exponential growth in cases is the norm. But if various measures are changing the number of infections at any one time, and keep stretching out the doubling time to make it longer, its possible to end up with growth that looks far more like linear growth than exponential growth.
I will be trying to dig into this further tomorrow, once other studies data and estimates are available.
In the meantime, the way I would think about our current situation and our measures of it, is that even if we assume the worst, the timing is not the same as last time. Things can still spiral out of control quite quickly, but not as quickly as last time, due to a combination of different doubling time and a much different level of disease surveillance. ie we can see stages of epidemic growth that were really barely visible at all in the data the first time around, and that gives more time to act.
This stuff is also the main reason I have not spent September screaming for the government to do a full lockdown ASAP. But neither is it cause to join the 'lets get on with our lives' idiots.
There is also more than one way to frame very similar things, eg I could have gone on about R instead of the doubling rate.
Oh well, so much for my weather theory.
Nick Triggle is an interesting character in a who exactly is he way. Its almost worth a thread on its own. His wiki page is very sparse he doesn't really have much in the way of linked-in presence. Usually the one thing every journo is good at is self-promotion yet I've found it really hard to find any background on him. He seems to have appeared from nowhere in a plum job at the BBC and doesn't seem to have a basic understanding of science or health.
I'm almost getting a bit conspiracy about him. I know relations between the government and BBC have been interesting of late. Has he been put there for a reason? One of Dom's mates implanted for reasons?
I went wild swimming two weeks ago!
elbows
Well-Known Member
He has been there for many years already, so certain possibilities can be excluded. Others cannot, but I have no special contacts in any of these worlds so I reached a dead end on that long ago. So I'll stick to picking apart what he says rather than the background. Although this week I have been practicing not bothering to cover his shit anymore.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Sister in law is a Tory MP
TopCat
Putin fanboy
This report says that in the NW the positive cases are 1000 per 100,000. That's the highest ever no?
www.theguardian.com
Rise in Covid-19 cases in England may be slowing, study suggests
Estimated one in 200 people have Covid but new restrictions appear to be slowing its spread
they estimate there was a million new cases a week at the peak, so no.This report says that in the NW the positive cases are 1000 per 100,000. That's the highest ever no?
Rise in Covid-19 cases in England may be slowing, study suggests
Estimated one in 200 people have Covid but new restrictions appear to be slowing its spread
this is just business as usual rather than evidence of some recent conspiracy though
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah its not hard to generate 'highest ever' numbers at the moment because we are actually trying to measure those things now, which we were not the first time around.
For example the REACT-1 study upon which those stories are based did not start till May.
An example quote from the latest REACT-1 paper:
via Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission findings
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Not sure if you've ever noticed before, but there's a whole bit of UK that's actually north of "the north", and which is generally even colder and wetter.Weather could be playing a part, although it started taking off in the north weeks before the weather changed, and doesn't explain south Wales, where the weather is currently similar to, for example, the south-east.
View attachment 232492
There's a clickable version of the map in the link below.
Covid cases and deaths today: coronavirus UK map
Are UK coronavirus cases rising in your local area and nationally? Check week-on-week changes across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the latest figures from public health authorities
I think if you overlaid life expectancy and population density data there would be more correlation than weather.Weather could be playing a part, although it started taking off in the north weeks before the weather changed, and doesn't explain south Wales, where the weather is currently similar to, for example, the south-east.
View attachment 232492
There's a clickable version of the map in the link below.
Covid cases and deaths today: coronavirus UK map
Are UK coronavirus cases rising in your local area and nationally? Check week-on-week changes across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the latest figures from public health authorities
elbows
Well-Known Member
I canot use the current situation to study weather-etc impact on infection because of other factors that complicate the picture. For example the current situation in the North West is something of an inevitable product of things like the fact that they never got the number of infections in that region down to the same level as elsewhere in the first place, so the resurgence there was starting from a higher point, it had more cases of infection as a base to expand upon.
elbows
Well-Known Member
If I use light pollution as a proxy for population density and compare to a cumulative covid-19 mortality rate map from last month, I get this, demonstrating the point.
Density sure but why would life expectancy play a role in inflection? Genuine question. I can understand why it would play a role in deaths from covid but not why it would play a role in positive tests.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Studies attempting to look at any correlation between pollution and Covid-19 deaths suffers from the usual problem of not being able to separate other factors too. ie there is an existing correlation between pollution levels, population density, socio-economic status, etc.
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