Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

More on the plans for simplifying the different levels of lockdown etc:

The government is to push ahead with a new "three-tier" approach to coronavirus restrictions in local areas of England, the BBC understands.

The Department of Health confirmed last month the system was being considered - but it has now been signed off by government officials and politicians.

According to a memo seen by the BBC, public health officials will receive precise proposals later on Thursday. The Department of Health said there were "no imminent changes" expected.

Coronavirus: Restrictions for England to be standardised into three tiers

The BBC understands a three-tier system will aim to replace the current patchwork of local lockdowns.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[crossthebreeze]

Ok, just catching up on at figures for Newcastle upon Tyne and they're scary. Last 7 days (from report dated 30th September) - 752 confirmed cases (up from 487 the previous week). Cumulative number of confirmed cases - (dated 24th September) - 3008 cases. So that's something like 1/3 of the cumulative total over the last fortnight (if my maths is right???). Plus I wonder about what the rate is of people not getting tested, for various reasons (economics, ability to access, test shortages). Also looking at MSOA map, cases are very concentrated in certain areas around the city centre, including where I live. One area has 108 cases - one of the largest figures on the whole map (each area roughly 5000-10000 population).

I think there may well be greater risk here now than in March, yet everyone's back at work, public transport, shops, bars, cafes all open though we not allowed to meet indoors (and they made such a balls up of the law that alot of people seems to be ignoring - or unaware of - the much stricter guidelines about not meeting outdoors). Fuck.

 

[crossthebreeze]

Ok, just catching up on at figures for Newcastle upon Tyne and they're scary. Last 7 days (from report dated 30th September) - 752 confirmed cases (up from 487 the previous week). Cumulative number of confirmed cases - (dated 24th September) - 3008 cases. So that's something like 1/3 of the cumulative total over the last fortnight (if my maths is right???). Plus I wonder about what the rate is of people not getting tested, for various reasons (economics, ability to access, test shortages). Also looking at MSOA map, cases are very concentrated in certain areas around the city centre, including where I live. One area has 108 cases - one of the largest figures on the whole map (each area roughly 5000-10000 population).

I think there may well be greater risk here now than in March, yet everyone's back at work, public transport, shops, bars, cafes all open though we not allowed to meet indoors (and they made such a balls up of the law that alot of people seems to be ignoring - or unaware of - the much stricter guidelines about not meeting outdoors). Fuck.

Though of course things weren't being measured/tested back in March.

 

[teuchter]

Though of course things weren't being measured/tested back in March.

Yes, always useful to look at the % of tests positive rather than (or as well as) the number of positive tests, which is the graph most people seem to like to put up.

 

[two sheds]

Interesting discussion with a neighbour who started off with "I'm not too convinced of the benefits of masks", which surprised me because she's an ex nurse and very together. I countered with my usual "I am", but she said that she'd of course go along with wearing them, but when they used to be in theatre it was fairly well recognized that after 15 minutes the mask becomes so moist that whatever is out there 'sticks' to them. I did say that the main thing is protecting other people so you're not expelling the virus the same distance and she didn't dispute that.

 

[StoneRoad]

Ok, just catching up on at figures for Newcastle upon Tyne and they're scary. Last 7 days (from report dated 30th September) - 752 confirmed cases (up from 487 the previous week). Cumulative number of confirmed cases - (dated 24th September) - 3008 cases. So that's something like 1/3 of the cumulative total over the last fortnight (if my maths is right???). Plus I wonder about what the rate is of people not getting tested, for various reasons (economics, ability to access, test shortages). Also looking at MSOA map, cases are very concentrated in certain areas around the city centre, including where I live. One area has 108 cases - one of the largest figures on the whole map (each area roughly 5000-10000 population).

I think there may well be greater risk here now than in March, yet everyone's back at work, public transport, shops, bars, cafes all open though we not allowed to meet indoors (and they made such a balls up of the law that alot of people seems to be ignoring - or unaware of - the much stricter guidelines about not meeting outdoors). Fuck.

Yep, I'm looking at that from about 40 miles further west !
Scary is right.

I would, however, add in another factor - from memory, much of those city-centre areas are what I would term "studentland" and certainly has very "dense" housing in many areas (Terraced and Tyneside flats) ...

 

[bimble]

i think this has just been published, big randomised (?) study on transmission in england towards the end of last month.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1_12345_Interim-(1).pdf

The government's suggested takeaways from it here :

Interim results from largest COVID-19 study published

Over 80,000 volunteers tested in England between 18 and 26 September as part of the country’s largest study into COVID-19.

www.gov.uk

If people cleverer than me could explain what the important findings are that would be great.
I don't know what to make of the idea that 1 in 200 people in England have had the virus so far, that seems quite low?
eta oh, its 1 in 200 have it right now, they are saying.

 

[elbows]

i think this has just been published, big randomised (?) study on transmission in england towards the end of last month.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1_12345_Interim-(1).pdf

The government's suggested takeaways from it here :

Interim results from largest COVID-19 study published

Over 80,000 volunteers tested in England between 18 and 26 September as part of the country’s largest study into COVID-19.

www.gov.uk

If people cleverer than me could explain what the important findings are that would be great.
I don't know what to make of the idea that 1 in 200 people in England have had the virus so far, that seems quite low?
eta oh, its 1 in 200 have it right now, they are saying.

It was the basis of other stories in the press earlier today so it already got some mention here, eg #19,587 #19,613

I dont have much to say about it really, because I consider it to be in line with reasonable expectations. The ONS report on a similar study each week, so I might compare and contrast when that comes out tomorrow.

These studies are a useful part of the virus surveillance picture because they dont have some of the issues the main daily positive cases system suffers from, although there are still some limitations. There is still some degree of uncertainty about what they show, and there is always a desire to see what next weeks figures bring since in some ways the trajectory is the most important thing.

 

[elbows]

111 again:

Nurses barred from NHS 111 Covid clinical division after 60% of calls unsafe

Concern grows over 111 guidance after audit of clinical calls handled by nurses, paramedics and physios

www.theguardian.com

The audit was triggered in July after many of the medical professionals recruited to work in the clinical division of the 111 service sounded the alarm, saying they did not feel “properly skilled and competent” to fulfil such a critical role.

An investigation was launched into several individual cases after the initial review found that assurances could not be given “in regard to the safety of these calls”, according to an email, seen by the Guardian, from the clinical assurance director of the National Covid-19 Pandemic Response Service. In a further email on 14 August, she told staff that after listening to a “significant number” of calls “so far over 60% … have not passed the criteria demonstrating a safe call”.

One AHP who signed up to the CCAS told the Guardian the clinical calls involved making critical decisions about whether a person was in a life-threatening condition and needed immediate emergency care. Their training and experience had never involved emergency care, they said, adding they did not feel qualified for the role and were “horrified” by the outcome of the call audit.

THe article covers other aspects of this too. Too many quotable paragraphs so here is just one more.

NHS England and the SCAS both told the Guardian in statements that call handlers for the CRS were “carefully selected, screened and trained”.

However, the Guardian has interviewed three people who worked for 111 at different sites across England and say they were given the job after a relatively brief conversation with a recruitment agent and negligible training. Two worked for the French corporation Teleperformance at call centres in Gateshead and Ashby, and the other for the French-US call centre giant Sitelat a site in Newcastle.

 

[elbows]

Actually fuck it, I'm not going to be able to avoid several more quotes from it given what is said.

The Teleperformance employee in Gateshead said that on the same floor that 111 calls were being handled the company was handling calls for the clothing company Asos. They said they were told to follow a flowchart in a Word document that explained how to handle 111 calls. It asked for people’s symptoms and led to an outcome, they said, adding it usually concluded that they should stay at home if they had symptoms unless they were acutely short of breath.

“It is a joke to say we had a training programme,” the Teleperformance employee in Gateshead said. “I didn’t even have time to read the flowchart before I started taking calls. The first call I had, the person was in distress. The flowchart led to advice that he should stay at home and rest. It was horrendous; there were a lot of young people taken on, some weren’t taking it seriously. It breaks my heart to read about these families whose loved ones died after calling 111.”

 

[andysays]

111 is a joke...

 

[elbows]

This is only breaking news on the BBC as I write this so I havent read a lot of detail:

An SNP MP has apologised for travelling home from London after testing positive for Covid-19.

Margaret Ferrier, the MP for Rutherglen and Hamilton West, said there was "no excuse for my actions".

MP Margaret Ferrier's Covid Parliament trip 'indefensible'

SNP MP Margaret Ferrier is facing calls to resign after she was suspended by her party.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

111 is a joke...

Yeah its the usual story of the pandemic amplifying all the shit that was already there. But the amplification was so dramatic in the case of 111 because of the decision to use that system as the main critical care pathway in that phase of the pandemic. People who were already well practiced in having to rapidly overcome absurd, life-damaging bureaucratic hurdles might have had the awareness and means to dodge this deadly horror but for others the outcome was often grim.

 

[elbows]

The detail certainly adds to the earlier story

She said she took a test on Saturday - but travelled to Westminster on Monday because she was feeling "much better".

Ms Ferrier received a positive test result that same day, then took a train back to Scotland on Tuesday.

She spoke in the coronavirus debate in the House of Commons on Monday, and said she received her positive test result that evening.

 

[agricola]

This is only breaking news on the BBC as I write this so I havent read a lot of detail:

MP Margaret Ferrier's Covid Parliament trip 'indefensible'

SNP MP Margaret Ferrier is facing calls to resign after she was suspended by her party.

www.bbc.co.uk

I don't want to pile into the "she has got to resign" brigade, especially as so many of them (edit: the press / commentariat clowns) backed Cummings for doing almost exactly the same thing, but she really has got to resign.

 

[Artaxerxes]

It's very bad, like criminally bad. Dominic was stupid but her traipsing around to half a dozen meetings across the country is beyond negligent.

 

[elbows]

On the positive side, err no pun intended there, in normal times peoples own risk assessments and behaviour are often strongly influenced by things like 'I felt better'. And that doesnt magically vanish in a pandemic, so making an example of her may offer the opportunity for some lessons and reminders on this front.

 

[LDC]

This is only breaking news on the BBC as I write this so I havent read a lot of detail:

MP Margaret Ferrier's Covid Parliament trip 'indefensible'

SNP MP Margaret Ferrier is facing calls to resign after she was suspended by her party.

www.bbc.co.uk

She needs sacking surely. And then prosecuting. FFS.

 

[zora]

I like elbow's optimistic take of it being a possible learning opportunity, but yes, wtaf?


On a similar note of people's risk assessments: I constantly have the feeling at work when I shrink away from people or pull people up on their poor social distancing that they look at me like I am a complete idiot, as if to say "duh, can't you see that I haven't got covid?"

 

[teuchter]

She might have had very mild symptoms, wondered if it was being overcautious to get a test, spent some time trying to decide whether or not to get one, then thought, well, better safe than sorry.
Then the next day was feeling fine and thought, that was an overreaction to get a test, and that she'd been worrying about nothing.
The thing is, if she'd decided not to get a test, the public health outcome would probably have been worse, because she'd then have continued to go about her business normally for the rest of the week. But for her personally it would have been better because she wouldn't have got into trouble.
If you're unsure whether you've got symtoms or not, then it's pretty hard to know what's the right thing to do.

 

[weepiper]

She needs sacking surely. And then prosecuting. FFS.

They can't sack her, they can only withdraw the whip, which they've done.



What the FUCK was she thinking though??

 

[cupid_stunt]

She needs sacking surely. And then prosecuting. FFS.

I wish she had made a visit to the Isle of Man, because she would have been rightly jailed there.

 

[agricola]

She might have had very mild symptoms, wondered if it was being overcautious to get a test, spent some time trying to decide whether or not to get one, then thought, well, better safe than sorry.
Then the next day was feeling fine and thought, that was an overreaction to get a test, and that she'd been worrying about nothing.
The thing is, if she'd decided not to get a test, the public health outcome would probably have been worse, because she'd then have continued to go about her business normally for the rest of the week. But for her personally it would have been better because she wouldn't have got into trouble.
If you're unsure whether you've got symtoms or not, then it's pretty hard to know what's the right thing to do.

It isn't - if you feel you have symptoms, take a test. Wait for the test results to come back. If you're positive, then quarantine.

I appreciate there are people for whom there are financial / career / childcare problems as the result of this but they do not apply to her (as they didn't apply to Cummings) and so she should do the decent thing or we will have people feeling empowered to do what she did.

 

[StoneRoad]

I wish she had made a visit to the Isle of Man, because she would have been rightly jailed there.

Yep, they've not been messing about over there ! Several cases have been reported of non-isolationists being dropped in the slammer.
They do have a couple of Covid cases atm (3 in September) - I'm assuming that's people who were off-island (or their contacts were) and tested +ve after returning.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Let's take a positive thing about her mistake:
she went to parliament with it.

 

[StoneRoad]

It's not rocket science, dammit.
If you think you (might) have Covid, isolate, get tested / traced and stay isolated until you're cleared.

People in the public eye should be setting a good example ...

 

[Artaxerxes]

People in the public eye should be setting a good example ...

Have they ever done so?

 

[agricola]

Let's take a positive thing about her mistake:
she went to parliament with it.

via Oxenholme the Lake District, Lancaster, Preston, Crewe and Milton Keynes

 

[Cerv]

has there ever been a bye election conducted entirely by postal ballots before?

 

[Supine]

via Oxenholme the Lake District, Lancaster, Preston, Crewe and Milton Keynes

I use four of those stations twice a week!