I think I saw a Triggle article where he used a graph to suggest that if our trajectory was like France and Spains, we would be more likely to end up with 10,000 cases by the date in mid October that was used in the Whitty/Vallance slides the other day, rather than their 50,000 example.
But I am trying to wean myself off doing lengthy quotations and commentary on his analysis. I suppose I will still link to the article though, this time, maybe the last.
Last throw of dice before the really tough call
I will say that its been weeks already since I questioned how well our testing system will actually be able to keep up with increase in cases, given its been creaking since some time in August, or maybe it was the start of September, I forget. I do expect to have to rely on various estimates more than actual test data again at some point, and to factor in heavily who is actually managing to get a test. eg under the very highest demand-supply test imbalances, it will end up being little more than an indicator of who is testing positive in hospitals etc again. But unless we reach that point, it will be hard to know what proportion of community cases it is still able to handle. So maybe I should just go straight to the regular estimates from now on instead, I'm not sure yet.
Anyway, the point I am leading to is that if I go and look at zoe covid estimates, their latest estimate was 12,698 new daily cases across the UK, and that estimate is getting a bit old now. So I dont think much of Triggles 10,000 by October 13th thing or whatever it was. But then if I were forced to stick to actual number of detected cases then all bets are off, I dont know how long it will take them to manage to detect 10,000 positives in a day, if they even can, regardless of actual levels of infection over that period.
COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app
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