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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

I suspect Leicester won’t be the only place in the UK facing a ‘local lockdown’ - will be interesting to see how it’s handled/policed etc
Have to admit I'm not at all down with the science on pretty much any aspect of covid. However, in terms of local lockdowns, if it needs doing I'd have thought it needs doing now. Pretty much like the national one, even a week's delay will cost lives. And in the case of a local area, transmission beyond that area.
 
I know the term lockdown has been stretched to include many lesser things from the start, but in the case of 'local lockdown' the term may be even further away from what they actually have planned. eg latest updated version of the BBC story says:

This morning, the Home Secretary Priti Patel said that with "local flare ups its right to have a localised solution".

However, it is not sure exactly what that would look like.

Currently, councils do not feel like they have the powers to effectively shut off a city in the way you might expect.

Rather, places where an outbreak has occurred - such as meat-processing plants - could temporarily shut and workers asked to be tested and self-isolate.

Increased testing in an area would also likely play a part. The government says a mobile testing centre was set up in Leicester as cases appeared to increase.

This morning, the Mayor of Leicester Pete Soulsby said they were looking at neighbourhood-level data to assess what "extra support" might be needed in those areas.
 
It gets a bit of a mention in a story about not going back to austerity.




I suppose I should point out that Nuneaton is not all that far away from Leicester and I've been talking about the hospital outbreak here for a while. And although the situation with Nuneaton has been largely driven by the hospital outbreak, 35% of cases were said to be from the community. There was also a suggestion that a bunch of the cases at the hospital were not from Nuneaton itself, eg from Hinckley which is Nuneatons neighbour across the county border in Leicestershire. But I dont have data to support or refute that bit.
Hinckley is (IME) very much a commuter town, with a lot of people living there but working in Leicester/Cov/Nuneaton etc or Birmingham via the train. Not only does this potentially mean transmissions from further afield due to work, but also there are probably cultural implications from so many people being so used to driving everywhere all the time and it would be interesting to see how that transferred into lockdown.
 
Hinckley is (IME) very much a commuter town, with a lot of people living there but working in Leicester/Cov/Nuneaton etc or Birmingham via the train. Not only does this potentially mean transmissions from further afield due to work, but also there are probably cultural implications from so many people being so used to driving everywhere all the time and it would be interesting to see how that transferred into lockdown.

Yeah, quite a lot of possibilities and as usual it will be hard to rule particular ones in and out.

To give another example, midlands hospital data that sticks out for having persistent cases is somewhat consistent with the eastern side of the 'golden triangle' of logistics/distribution.

main-qimg-2f6e308f7852c519b7606caaf5dc792e-c.jpg
 
Yeah, quite a lot of possibilities and as usual it will be hard to rule particular ones in and out.

To give another example, midlands hospital data that sticks out for having persistent cases is somewhat consistent with the eastern side of the 'golden triangle' of logistics/distribution.

main-qimg-2f6e308f7852c519b7606caaf5dc792e-c.jpg
Funny I was just literally thinking about the distribution industry in that triangle area shown in the diagram but was unsure if it actually was more present in that area or whether I had some weird bias that led me to believe it was
 
It gets a bit of a mention in a story about not going back to austerity.




I suppose I should point out that Nuneaton is not all that far away from Leicester and I've been talking about the hospital outbreak here for a while. And although the situation with Nuneaton has been largely driven by the hospital outbreak, 35% of cases were said to be from the community. There was also a suggestion that a bunch of the cases at the hospital were not from Nuneaton itself, eg from Hinckley which is Nuneatons neighbour across the county border in Leicestershire. But I dont have data to support or refute that bit.
I'm originally from Nuneaton. A couple of my dad's old friends died of Covid a few weeks ago. My elderly mum is still there, refusing to wear a mask of course, convinced by her neighbours that the latest hospital cases are due to BLM protests. I've not seen all your posts re the Elliott but over the last few years I've done a lot of hospital visiting and have always found that hospital more chaotic and dirty than others.
 
To quote from the site I pinched that map from:


It’s no surprise therefore, that the Midlands has close to 150 million square feet of warehouse space: more than twice the combined warehousing activity of London, Scotland and Wales.

There is no official precise measurement of exactly what constitutes the Golden Triagle, but it pretty much covers Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Warwickshire, plus parts of Staffordshore and Derbyshire. Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal (DIRFT) contains 1 million square feet of Tesco warehousing space, and rivals Asda have several units less than 20 miles away in Magna Park.

When you throw in Birmingham International Airport and East Midlands Airport (which itself contains a freight hub) plus the various rail links to the UK’s ports, the midlands begins to look more and more like the natural home for nation’s supply chain.

I'll follow up with some hospital data shortly, although increasingly I'm likely to need to start looking at number of cases tested positive, which is data I've mostly ignored till now but since hospital deaths data doesnt always tell the whole story I'll have to start paying attention to it. eg one of Leicesters hospital trusts deaths data actually looked worse a month or so ago than it has recently.
 
I'm originally from Nuneaton. A couple of my dad's old friends died of Covid a few weeks ago. My elderly mum is still there, refusing to wear a mask of course, convinced by her neighbours that the latest hospital cases are due to BLM protests. I've not seen all your posts re the Elliott but over the last few years I've done a lot of hospital visiting and have always found that hospital more chaotic and dirty than others.

Sorry to hear about the deaths. My Mum is here with me in Nuneaton and my Dad is in Hinckley, and both have been very sensible in the pandemic so far (well I have to presume my Dad is, havent been tracking his every movement). I dont know anybody affected myself, well there is one person I know who had it but they are young and bounced back quickly, and they live & work in Leicestershire. They work in a care home so it wasnt shocking that they caught it during the first wave. Actually I do know of someone who passed away of a heart attack in his mid thirties a few weeks ago, but I dont know if that was Covid related.

As for the Eliot, its tricky for them. Lots of funding issues over the years but also lots of infection issues and topping all the wrong leaderboards. Some of its down to the health of the population they serve, but they are probably also an awkward size for funding, management and attracting the right staff. Most of my complaints in recent weeks have been about management weasel words and lack of info, but I could probably say the same about most hospitals where they have been mealy-mouthed about hospital outbreaks, I tend to think of it as a broader management culture phenomenon that is not George Eliot specific, but I'm sure they have some failings of their own too.
 
Farrar (Wellcome Trust, sits on SAGE) concerned about spikes ("rebounds") in coming weeks, second wave in Oct/Nov (will we, by then, have the means to be able to quickly distinguish SARS-CoV-2 infections from seasonal colds/flu/respiratory diseases and thus swiftly act appropriately?).
 
Farrar (Wellcome Trust, sits on SAGE) concerned about spikes ("rebounds") in coming weeks, second wave in Oct/Nov (will we, by then, have the means to be able to quickly distinguish SARS-CoV-2 infections from seasonal colds/flu/respiratory diseases and thus swiftly act appropriately?).

Better hope the quick saliva test turns out to be accurate enough! Which reminds me to get round to confirming that I will gladly take part in that study.
 
I'm always a bit wary of posting these hospital trust 'daily deaths by day of death, only for people with a positive test result' graphs without also posting loads more to indicate what the picture is like at all the hospitals that arent currently so worthy of attenion. But there are just too many, even if I restrict myself to the midlands, so I'll just have to cherry pick based on previous golden triangle discussion.

First off it is increasingly obvious why the recent Nuneaton George Eliot hospital situation was newsworthy here.

Screenshot 2020-06-28 at 14.47.38.png
Kettering and Northampton are examples to me of a certain degree of persistence in hospital deaths, that may be improving to varying degrees of late, or may just look better as a result of data lag (the Goerge Eliot doesnt have too much reporting lag at the moment, perhaps because PHE are all over the situation there).


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Leicester is an example that I would have flagged weeks ago as only seeing its decline happen much more gradually than most places, but in the more recent data there is not much hint of the current situation which has lead to these headlines about local lockdowns.

Screenshot 2020-06-28 at 14.49.53.png
There are some other examples in the north midlands that I would also have posted if it were not for my sense that I've posted too many already.

edit - Oh I suppose I will include Coventry as well for contrast.

Screenshot 2020-06-28 at 15.06.34.png
 
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I have to make them myself using the NHS England spreadsheets for deaths - there is a whole tab listing deaths by trust.

Maybe someone else on the net is publishing the same data in graph form but I havent had time to look so I just carry on with my own versions using the data from the 'total announced deaths' spreadsheet at Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Cheers. :)

Western Sussex Trust (Worthing, Chichester & Shoreham) has just completed 3 weeks with no deaths.
 
Cheers. :)

Western Sussex Trust (Worthing, Chichester & Shoreham) has just completed 3 weeks with no deaths.

Cool. If you want to keep an eye on it in future then the daily version of the spreadsheet, that only lists the new deaths that have been reported since the day before, helpfully only lists the hospitals that are actually reporting a death on that occasion. For for example there are only 12 hospitals in England that are reporting new death data today. And the deaths in question happened on various dates in June. These daily spreadsheets are available from the same site & page as the one covering totals so far. I suppose its a good time to post an example because being a Sunday there is likely less data than normal so this table isnt too large.

Screenshot 2020-06-28 at 15.59.01.png
 
On a related note, I think the media have been quite poor at providing any local data plotted over time, so much of the focus has been totals rather than the rhythm and specific locations of events. I suppose its inevitable that this will start to change a little now that the stories of outbreaks become local, but things are really still quite poor on this front. Soon I will be forced to start wading through a very large spreadsheet about positive cases in order to plot these over time for locations too. I've no idea if they will reveal anything of use, but now I at least know to start with some of these midlands locations that have shown up in the news and/or the hospital data I already looked at.

Regarding hospital data, carrying on from where I left off, another obvious thing I can do is throw away all the data from before a certain point, and see which hospitals have reported any deaths since the arbitrary cut-off date I choose. For example I just took a look at all the hospital trusts in England that have reported the death of at least one person with a positive test as having happened from June 14th onwards. There are 107 of them, so too long to list here. 68 of them only reported 1 or 2 deaths as having happened in that period. Here is a list of those that reported 10 or more. Since this data often lags, these numbers could yet change a fair bit. I wont get the time to look at most of these hospital trusts, if anyone does have the time to investigate any of these then I'd be glad to hear more about any of them.

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Regarding what I was saying earlier about lockdown not actually meaning lockdown.


Shadow Health Secretary Jon Ashworth has played down the prospects of there being a Leicester localised lockdown to combat a spike of coronavirus cases in the city.

The Labour Leicester South MP said he was briefed by Health Secretary Matt Hancock on Saturday after there had been reports the city might be the first in the UK to have a localised lockdown imposed within days.

Home secretary Priti Patel appeared to confirm such a move was a possibility when she was asked this morning, on the Andrew Marr Show, about suggestions of a localised lockdown, saying “That is correct", before then outlining measures that did not amount to a lockdown.

Mr Ashworth subsequently said, in a Radio 4 interview: “I listened carefully to the Home Secretary on Marr and I wonder if she got slightly in a muddle or inadvertently misled viewers, because I was very pleased to receive a briefing yesterday from the Health Secretary as a local member of parliament.

“Yes we have a spike in infections here in Leicester, yes we have to respond to that with extra testing capacity and extra support for the local authority, but nobody is proposing a local lockdown in the way that appears to have been presented in the media.

“Matt Hancock and I were at one with that."

“If necessary we will need to perhaps close some shops and so on but it’s not entirely clear what powers local government has or whether that is something that national Government would have to do," he said.

He said urgent clarity was needed from the Government.
 
I think I will have to give up looking at local positive tests data. Beause the data available via the dashboard seems to only be one pillar, and its not possible to spot the Leicester outbreak in this version of the data at all. So people are entirely reliant on local authorities managing to get the full data off the government and then sharing that with the public.

For example I could not make the following claim at all based off of dashboard data, the numbers I can see are not remarkable for June. But the Leicester mayor can because they've now got data for the pillar thats still otherwise invisible to the public.


The city council was provided with detailed testing information for the first time on Thursday (25 June), one week after the Secretary of State Matt Hancock announced that there was a local outbreak in Leicester.

The latest figures (23 June 2020) from Public Health England show that 2,987 Covid-19 cases have been confirmed in Leicester since the start of the epidemic. Of these, 866 cases were reported in the last two weeks.

The council asked the Government for more detailed information after its own public health team noticed a surge in the number of people testing positive in the city. Detailed data such as ethnicity and the postcodes of those being tested had not previously been provided.

It is a scandal that this data isnt available for everyone on an ongoing basis. I'm not talking about the postcode and ethnicity details, we dont even have the basic data from this pillar by town, city, county etc! So we cannot spot local outbreaks for ourselves until they turn into deaths. In some ways I bet the authorities like it that way, but not the local authorities who also struggle to get the data they need.

To give an indication of how much data is missing from our view, they give a total of 2987 Leicester cases, the pillar I can see has only reached 1052. If I added the whole of Leicestershires numbers I would still be 4 or 5 hundred short.
 
Regarding what I was saying earlier about lockdown not actually meaning lockdown.

I must say, thought it hardly needs saying, that Priti "vacant" Patel does rather seem to have a bit of a track record of getting into muddles... :hmm:

Is it possible that she really is as thick as a stevedore's sandwich?
 
Ireland to maintain 14‑day quarantine on British travellers while Covid cases stay high

Scots threaten to impose same restriction on English visitors if coronavirus infections rise again south of the border


Julieanne Corr and John Boothman
Sunday June 28 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times

Ireland is expected to maintain a 14-day quarantine for travellers from the British mainland next month, despite its plans to form air bridges with other European countries, including Spain and Greece.

And English holidaymakers crossing the border into Scotland could be told to go into quarantine for two weeks if cases of coronavirus rise again.


A memo given to an Irish cabinet committee on Covid-19 last week noted it was “highly unlikely” that Britain would be included in Ireland’s safe travel list.

Travellers from Northern Ireland would not have to quarantine. The final “green list” of countries will not be published until July 9.

The memo said that “mandatory restricted movement” would be placed on countries such as Britain, where new cases remained high. It said that this was because Britain’s handling of Covid-19 was “significantly poorer” than Ireland’s.

Yesterday, Tony Holohan, Ireland’s chief medical officer, expressed concern that a resumption of overseas travel would raise Ireland’s low levels of Covid-19. He tweeted: “We move to phase three [of reopening] on Monday, June 29.

“Very low levels of #COVID19. What worries me most now is travel from overseas and I fear many planning foreign trips. 2020 is a year for a staycation. Stay in Ireland, spend locally and follow public health advice.”

The Irish Travel Agents Association (ITAA) agreed that excluding Britain from Ireland’s safe travel list was the right thing to do, given that its daily new coronavirus cases were still “at four figures”. Pat Dawson, chief executive at ITAA, said: “There has to be a bar of what level countries are at [in tackling the virus], and it looks like the UK certainly are not at that level yet.

“You only have to look at the last week, where hundreds of thousands of [British] people were crowded on beaches. We cannot have air bridges or corridors with countries where the medics are saying it’s not under control.”

In Scotland, the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said the country was edging towards “total elimination” of Covid-19 after no new deaths were recorded on a weekday for the first time since March.

But Scottish government sources say progress being made in suppressing the virus could be undone when the tourism season begins next month, with an expected influx of visitors from England.

At present, anyone coming from overseas must enter quarantine for two weeks or face a £480 fine, similar to measures in England.

A Scottish government source said ministers were considering the option of applying the same rules to visitors from England if Covid-19 cases rise.

The Conservatives in Scotland have criticised the SNP for acting more slowly than England in reopening the tourism industry, claiming it will cost £11m.

The first minister intends to restart tourism on July 15.

Kingston Mills, professor of experimental immunology at Trinity College Dublin, said that restricting travellers from the British mainland was right. “Britain is not one of the countries that has done well in controlling the infection so I don’t see it as being a green country,” he said.

“There are several other countries that are way ahead of the UK so I don’t see the problem with some of those.”

Mills added that the alternative was to introduce mandatory testing for incoming travellers at airports, which is being done in countries such as Austria. “This would require the individual to stay overnight in a hotel on arrival and if they tested negative the next day they would be free to go.

“If they tested positive then they would have to stay there for 14 days or so. It would be tricky to implement and would mean that our testing turnaround would have to be a lot quicker.”
 
I must say, thought it hardly needs saying, that Priti "vacant" Patel does rather seem to have a bit of a track record of getting into muddles... :hmm:

Is it possible that she really is as thick as a stevedore's sandwich?

On this occasion I actually know where she is coming from, because lockdown has been used as shorthand for so many things all the way along. Others in government including Hancock have been prepared to use the language of local lockdown when they are actually referring to a bunch of other stuff. So its entirely unsurprising to me that she used the term but then went on to describe various things that arent actually a lcokdown, without even realising that there is supposed to be a difference. Some of them are restrictions or closures though, and none of this does anything to help the people who live in these places who want some clarity or certainty.

When I think back to earlier press conferences, I dont think the government were ever going to use the term lockdown officially. But the press kept using it in their presence and after their u-turn it ended up suiting them to answer to that term, so they could look like they were actually being tough and doing shit in contast to their earlier miscalculations. I think Hancock has some kind of power fetish relating to namedropping places that are experiencing local outbreaks, like he did with Leicester earlier this month. It just makes the shitty data situation even more infuriating, casually dropping that shit into the public conversation with no detail to give the people you've just alarmed the hell out of. What a shithead. Lets have a system where we can all see this stuff happening instead of having to rely on a minister talking in vague terms to some corner of the press.
 
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I will follow up on my data rant. It turns out that some of the data in the weekly surveillance report does allow me a slightly more useful glimpse at testing results that include pillar 2. Still not as good as having all the numbers over time, but I can at least see a snapshot of one weeks data in colour-coded map form. Some places I have made reference to do show up in this form of data, but its not local enough unless your area is an upper-tier local authority of its very own. There is another map which shows the cumulative rates so far, but this is not so useful for me spotting new or ongoing outbreaks in particular places.

Screenshot 2020-06-28 at 22.21.36.png
Another set of graphs in this report demonstrate very well why I could not see this picture by looking at the local data on tests from the official dashboard. I'm pretty sure the dashboard is missing pillar 2 cases, and this graph illustrates very well why that pillars data matters now in order to judge the ongoing state of infection in places these days, and why pillar 1 is fairly useless for me to study.

Screenshot 2020-06-28 at 22.25.58.png

From National COVID-19 surveillance reports
 
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So, The Times is reporting current lockdown restrictions are set to stay in place in Leicester for two more weeks after 4th July.

Lockdown restrictions are set to stay in place in Leicester for two weeks longer than the rest of England owing to a spike in new cases, according to the city’s mayor.

In the first test of the government’s strategy to impose restrictions locally where cases of coronavirus flare up again, Sir Peter Soulsby, the Labour mayor, said that central government planned to keep the city’s restaurants, pubs, cinemas and hotels closed for at least another fortnight.


If that is the case, I guess that would be easy enough to enforce, but would it be enough?
 
Also littlebabyjesus that antibody stuff I showed you the other day was out of date. That report I just linked to has a newer version, where some more recent results have been revised downwards a little, and there is a chart including age information.

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Ta. So heading downwards ! I guess we need to be careful about the various biases of this group. But still, not the result I wanted to see. The age breakdown repeats patterns seen elsewhere, in that plenty of young people have been catching it, but this is the age group where asymptomatic cases are most likely.
 
So, The Times is reporting current lockdown restrictions are set to stay in place in Leicester for two more weeks after 4th July.



If that is the case, I guess that would be easy enough to enforce, but would it be enough?

Going to be a nightmare to enforce. What will be boundaries be? People will travel to pubs out of the area I think, spreading it more. Wasn't this a problem when they did area specific lockdowns in Italy early on? People left to other areas spreading the virus even further.

There's a big problem with timing with lockdowns here I think. The general speculation and talking about it in the media and getting everyone's vague feelings and ideas to try and fill a newstory slot just feels like a massive delay. If it's needed just do it now ffs.
 
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Ta. So heading downwards ! I guess we need to be careful about the various biases of this group. But still, not the result I wanted to see. The age breakdown repeats patterns seen elsewhere, in that plenty of young people have been catching it, but this is the age group where asymptomatic cases are most likely.
It’s not heading downwards outside of the confidence interval. Statistically, the last number of weeks have all just been level.
 
They had a paragraph describing it near the start of that report ( https://assets.publishing.service.g...56/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_w26.pdf )

Data based on samples from blood donors suggests that seroprevalence is plateauing. Seroprevalence remains highest in London, with an adjusted prevalence of around 15% based on samples from week 21). New data from samples collected in the Midlands and North East in week 24 are included in this week’s report, with seroprevalence plateauing at around 6-7% in these regions. Seroprevalence remains highest in younger adults, though there have been relatively greater increases in prevalence in older adults over time, suggesting these age groups being affected later. These patterns may reflect differences in behaviour and mixing pat-terns in the different age groups.
 
It’s not heading downwards outside of the confidence interval. Statistically, the last number of weeks have all just been level.

So I suppose a (slightly over-) cautious interpretation would be "probably not currently rising" ?

Which is still good!

I (personally) would feel safer if the media interpretation of the figures in general, was erring on the realistic-to-cautious side... though I know that's not the same for everyone & people need a bit of hope to keep them going.
 
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