Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

BBC picked up on the pillar 2 testing data not available to us angle in regards Leicester.

Leicester lockdown: Coronavirus restrictions could be extended

Leicester's mayor says current coronavirus restrictions may remain in place for an extra fortnight.

www.bbc.co.uk

The figure for confirmed cases in Leicester is more than double that published by the government.

This is because the government's published data for local cases only cover tests carried out in hospitals and for health workers - known as Pillar 1.

Tests outside of hospitals, known as Pillar 2, are not broken down by local authority but Public Health England has started publishing a weekly round-up by region.

In the week of 18 to 24 June the East Midlands went from 18,516 confirmed cases to 19,861, equivalent to 28 new confirmed cases for every 100,000 people.

And Johnson has been on about whack-a-mole again:

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said: "We are concerned about Leicester, we are concerned about any local outbreak. I want to stress to people that we are not out of the woods yet."

He said a local "whack-a-mole" strategy used to deal with outbreaks in Weston-super-Mare and around GP surgeries in London would be "brought to bear in Leicester as well".

I'm familiar with a few aspects of the Weston situation but I dont think I followed the detail of the whack-a-mole approach as it pertained to London GP surgeries. Was there much info about the situation and the detail of how they dealt with it?

The mayor of Leicester is not filling me with confidence when he comes out with this:

"I think it's very unclear as to what difference it would make if they continue the regulations in Leicester and why you would do it. How can it possibly make any difference?" he added.

"Frankly, if the virus is out of control and spreading in Leicester with the restrictions, I can't understand how extending them for a further two weeks would make any difference to that."

Well Sir Peter, I believe the idea is that other responses are ramped up to try to crush the outbreak, but the idea is that you dont pour petrol on the flames at the same time by opening things in the middle of this response that are currently shut.

I can certainly sympathise if he is just getting vague shit from this government though, which given their form seems likely.

 

[two sheds]

I thought 'whack-a-mole' tactics just meant the mole goes underground again and comes up somewhere else, like stamping on an air bubble in a lino floor? Not quite what is needed.

 

[teuchter]

Why have they connected the dots with lines in the top graph but not the bottom one? I am unhappy about this.

 

[elbows]

Even Nick Triggle manages some analysis these days that doesnt wind me up badly. From that same article about Leicester that I already linked to just now:

The fact a local outbreak has been identified in one part of Leicester suggests the system is working to some extent - although it's fair to ask whether it could have been spotted more quickly given cases have been growing for a number of weeks.

An alternative phrase to a number of weeks that could probably be fairly used in this context would be 'since the start of June'. Although I think there have been issues all the way through the pandemic so far. I will be looking at how many weeks useful data I can get out of those maps I was on about last night and will report back.

With extra testing facilities parachuted in officials will be desperately trying to get a clear idea of just how far it has spread so delaying the further easing of restrictions is the logical step.

If more cases keep emerging a local lockdown will be on the cards.

Should it be like this? Some argue we should have suppressed the virus further before easing - essentially going for elimination like New Zealand.

But for a country like the UK where the virus had spread further before lockdown and with its size of population and packed cities that is somewhat harder.

I expect we will hear more about elimination versus partial suppression in the months ahead, especially if countries like Scotland come up with ways to try to keep it out once this round of it is effectively 'gone' there. I'll just be happy if we have a situation where numbers remain low enough that this kind of option remains plausible to discuss.

 

[elbows]

Why have they connected the dots with lines in the top graph but not the bottom one? I am unhappy about this.

PHE are exploring whether they are better equipped to publish the Big Pandemic Colouring Book than they were at ramping up testing.

 

[hash tag]

elbows, sorry to be a pain, have you a link to where you get those graphs from?

Sorry for jumping in elbows I seem to recall mentioning the reporting app a long time ago and reckon it's worth mentioning again....free for everyone to download And use, a few seconds a day is all it takes and lots of data and research behind it. Well worth the effort Help slow the spread of #COVID19 and identify at risk cases sooner by self-reporting your symptoms daily, even if you feel well . Download the app COVID Symptom Study - Help slow the spread of COVID-19

 

[teuchter]

especially if countries like Scotland come up with ways to try to keep it out once this round of it is effectively 'gone' there.

I don't really understand how Scotland can be talking about elimination, and opening up to tourists next month, simultaneously.

 

[Dark Knight]

"So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is...fear itself — nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. "

- Franklin D. Roosevelt, from his first presidential inaugural address, 1933

 

[two sheds]

"Yes, we need to advance into the middle of Coronavirus "

- Two sheds, from his final address to the people, 2020

 

[elbows]

I don't really understand how Scotland can be talking about elimination, and opening up to tourists next month, simultaneously.

I expect no end of contradictions and incompatible aims await us in the months ahead. Maybe some entity will actually manage to pull something off that impresses me.

 

[elbows]

Yes, we need to advance into the middle of Coronavirus

- Two sheds, from his final address to the people, 2020

If the tories used that Roosevelt quote right now it would probably be to try to justify the return of fines for parents whose children fail to attend school:

Penalty fines for missing school next term

Parents could be fined if children miss school in the autumn - but heads reject this approach.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[existentialist]

I expect no end of contradictions and incompatible aims await us in the months ahead. Maybe some entity will actually manage to pull something off that impresses me.

I think we can all be fairly safe in betting it won't be uk.gov

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

I live in a small town (Lutterworth, pop. 9.3k) barely 10 miles from Leicester (pop. 330k). If our pubs open next Saturday while theirs stay shut, guess what happens in this town and every other for miles around.

 

[quimcunx]

"Yes, we need to advance into the middle of Coronavirus "

- Two sheds, from his final address to the people, 2020

I think we should hide behind a big rock and ambush them while the rear guard captures any that try to escape with lassos.

 

[xenon]

OH god. what's this shit.

 

[xenon]

I think we should hide behind a big rock and ambush them while the rear guard captures any that try to escape with lassos.

And then head them off at the pass. You always have to do that bit.

 

[muscovyduck]

I live in a small town (Lutterworth, pop. 9.3k) barely 10 miles from Leicester (pop. 330k). If our pubs open next Saturday while theirs stay shut, guess what happens in this town and every other for miles around.

I heard anecdotally this is what happened on St Patricks day in Ireland/Northern Ireland - anyone else heard similar or got any data on it that proves one way or the other?

 

[flypanam]

This is worrying a nursery saying open despite a load of cases

Coronavirus: Milton Keynes Acorn Nursery stays open as 23 test positive

Children, parents and staff test positive but Public Health England says the nursery is safe.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[flypanam]

I heard anecdotally this is what happened on St Patricks day in Ireland/Northern Ireland - anyone else heard similar or got any data on it that proves one way or the other?

The Irish state closed all pubs and clubs at midnight on Monday 16th, the day before Paddy’s Day. Whether you Could get a pint in a rural pub I’m not sure but anyone I spoke to at home wasn’t risking heading out. I don’t think many would have travelled north either.

 

[maomao]

This is worrying a nursery saying open despite a load of cases

Coronavirus: Milton Keynes Acorn Nursery stays open as 23 test positive

Children, parents and staff test positive but Public Health England says the nursery is safe.

www.bbc.co.uk

Well they say they've isolated the bubbles with cases which means it is part closed. That's the whole point of bubbles isn't it?

 

[flypanam]

Well they say they've isolated the bubbles with cases which means it is part closed. That's the whole point of bubbles isn't it?

But there would have been a fair chance no one would have got if, there wasn’t a rush to reopen but I get your point.

 

[elbows]

Stay absurd has come to my town! Get those facepalms ready, our world class system is on display....

Residents asked to lie to bypass 'ridiculous' Covid test rules

A mobile testing unit has been set up in Nuneaton following a rise in cases

www.coventrytelegraph.net

Residents were asked to lie about having coronavirus symptoms so they could get tested at a mobile unit set-up in Nuneaton.

It has been admitted by Sade Agboola, director of public health for Warwickshire, that they had to 'bypass' some of the requirements to get people tested.

This is understood to include some of those who were at risk of picking up the virus following the small outbreak at the Cannons School in Bedworth.

During a Warwickshire County Council's adult social care and health overview and scrutiny committee meeting, outlining local 'Test and Trace' system efforts, Dr Agboola said staff had to work around 'ridiculous' requirements on testing.

"In order to access a test, the rules require you have to be symptomatic - we have had to bypass this very ridiculous requirement - to ask people to say they are systematic," she said.

"We are working with PHE (Public Health England) to see how that can be side-stepped as it could be a deterrent for people having tests."

Need more absurdity, is there any icing for this cake?

As we reported in our newsletter, Warwickshire County Council alongside Coventry City Council, Solihull MBC and the West Midlands Combined Authority was selected to take part in the early roll out of the government's £300 million test and trace work.

It is one of 11 'beacons' in the country.

Chinny reckon, Chinny beacon!

 

[andysays]

Stay absurd has come to my town! Get those facepalms ready, our world class system is on display....

Residents asked to lie to bypass 'ridiculous' Covid test rules

A mobile testing unit has been set up in Nuneaton following a rise in cases

www.coventrytelegraph.net

Need more absurdity, is there any icing for this cake?

Chinny reckon, Chinny beacon!

I thought the requirement for people to be symptomatic when being tested, far from being 'ridiculous', was because if you're not yet symptomatic the test doesn't work, or at least doesn't work so well.

 

[editor]

This is how poorly England has handled this crisis compared to the other home nations and how fucking shit the UK has done, thanks to this halfwit government.

Coronavirus: UK hardest hit by virus among leading G7 nations

Analysis by the BBC shows Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths have been proportionately worse in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Fez909]

Stay absurd has come to my town! Get those facepalms ready, our world class system is on display....

Residents asked to lie to bypass 'ridiculous' Covid test rules

A mobile testing unit has been set up in Nuneaton following a rise in cases

www.coventrytelegraph.net

Need more absurdity, is there any icing for this cake?



Chinny reckon, Chinny beacon!

It's not quite the same, but similar:

I received an email recently from the Covid Symptom Tracker app study asking me to get a test. I was told they had agreed with the govt that people who have opted into the study can get tests even though they might not be symptomatic etc.

In the email, it said to say that I am entitled to a test, and not to listen to the advice on the site.

The only options available to me were to say I was employed in one of various keyworker roles or to say I was directed here by the official app (which is only available on the IOW - perhaps withdrawn now, actually?)

I ticked app-directed, and got my test that way. (negative, btw).

 

[elbows]

I thought the requirement for people to be symptomatic when being tested, far from being 'ridiculous', was because if you're not yet symptomatic the test doesn't work, or at least doesn't work so well.

There was a logic to that, especially during periods where testing capacity was very limited and had to be rationed.

But as time has gone by and they have had more opportunities to blanket test people who had been potentially exposed in a particular setting, I think the relevance and number of asymptomatic cases, that can still generate a positive test, has become apparent. And this can be especially relevant when trying to zoom in and stamp down on a specific outbreak.

So its no surprise to me that when local officials are dealing with a particular situation, there are people they will want to get tested who arent showing symptoms at that time. I'm also not surprised that there are various situations where the authorities still want to discourage anyone who doesnt have symptoms, because no matter the claims, our testing system still has very clear limits to capacity.

 

[elbows]

Another sign that the current testing system is still not up to scratch so they have to find other ways to make it more effective where its needed:

Coronavirus: Number of mobile testing units to more than double

A further 1,763 armed forces personnel will help with testing at the 140 new pop-up facilities.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said 1,763 personnel will support the 236 units. There were 96 units in April.

"Testing is at the heart of the strategy for beating coronavirus", said Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.

The government has been challenged over its testing capacity and the data given during the pandemic.

Mobile units, which can be set up in under 20 minutes, provide access to testing, often in more remote areas.

Swabs are collected by military personnel on site and taken to one of three "mega labs" to be processed, with results expected within 48 hours.

An additional 140 Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) vehicles will be made available across the UK.

They sent one of the existing pop-up MOD testing facilities to Nuneaton several times in April and May. It was often to be found in a multi-storey carpark then. The one they have brought here to deal with the more recent outbreak is at 'an undisclosed location' according to the local press.

 

[andysays]

There was a logic to that, especially during periods where testing capacity was very limited and had to be rationed.

But as time has gone by and they have had more opportunities to blanket test people who had been potentially exposed in a particular setting, I think the relevance and number of asymptomatic cases, that can still generate a positive test, has become apparent. And this can be especially relevant when trying to zoom in and stamp down on a specific outbreak.

So its no surprise to me that when local officials are dealing with a particular situation, there are people they will want to get tested who arent showing symptoms at that time. I'm also not surprised that there are various situations where the authorities still want to discourage anyone who doesnt have symptoms, because no matter the claims, our testing system still has very clear limits to capacity.

That all makes sense, but I thought it wasn't simply a capacity issue, but an issue of accuracy.

If someone who is infected but hasn't yet developed enough of whatever is being tested for tests negative when they're actually positive, because they were, in effect, tested too early, then surely this will give a false sense of security.

The general rule surely has to be to behave as if you may yourself be infectious, and that those around you may also be infectious, and possible false negatives will work against that.

 

[xenon]

It's not quite the same, but similar:

I received an email recently from the Covid Symptom Tracker app study asking me to get a test. I was told they had agreed with the govt that people who have opted into the study can get tests even though they might not be symptomatic etc.

In the email, it said to say that I am entitled to a test, and not to listen to the advice on the site.

The only options available to me were to say I was employed in one of various keyworker roles or to say I was directed here by the official app (which is only available on the IOW - perhaps withdrawn now, actually?)

I ticked app-directed, and got my test that way. (negative, btw).

I don't understand. The app said you could ask for a test. You went on to the website and ticked directed from the app and got a test. So it worked?

What's IOW?

--

I also don't quite get what you're meant to do if you become ill suspecting Covid19. Self isolate for 14 dyas, of course but. Assuming you're:
A. Not a key worker.
B. Can't drive to a test centre.
C. Live alone.

Do you bother trying to get a test or just ride it out and call 111 if you get really ill?

 

[xenon]

Well 999 if you get really, really ill.