Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Orang Utan]

No time limit on pc use or time in library? No requirement to wipe down surfaces before and after use? Self service only?

I’ve been furloughed and am not sure when I’m returning to work or even if I there is a job to go back to, but we will be doing click and collect with zero browsing and no seating until our students get used to doing things in a way that is safe. We’ll only seating much later in the year.

You can walk out if you feel in danger Health and safety In work section 44 I think.

45 minute time limit for computers. No hanging about. Other customers can only come in if they have or want to make an appointment. Customers encouraged to wipe down PC equipment before and after use, but there’s 15 minutes until the next booking and cleaners on the premises all day to do it too. Self-serve only. So good luck to those computer illiterate job seekers who will have 45 minutes to apply for jobs and update their UC account

 

[xenon]

I'm still with Imperial units for rough and ready estimates - he"s six foot tall, she must weigh twelve stone etc. Lots of people are.

TBH I'm not sure oof ahnd how tall I am in metric for example. But just ask your nearest internet connected device for conversions...

178cm apparently

 

[xenon]

My workplace is reopening next Monday and I'm a bit terrified tbh. I work in a public library which is also a community hub offering other local council services. It is in a very deprived area that has been hit badly by Covid - healthwise and financewise. It is very busy in normal times so we expect to be inundated when we reopen. Lots of measures have been taken to ensure staff's safery - PPE, floor markings, spit shields, controlled entry, appointments only, reduced and prebooked PC availibility, no browsing and no use of toilets. They aim to have fewer than ten customers in the building at the same time. The queue outside is to be managed by just two security staff, and I'm worried we'll get overwhelmed and people will just bum rush security and waltz in expecting to do their usual stuff - people often spend all day in the library and socialise off and online. You can implement all the safety measures being deemed necessary but what you can't account for is customers' behaving and complying with the rules and this is what scares the shit out of me.
Am also concerned about the 'staff bubbles' they are talking about - one week some work from home, the next week they come to work, except some staff (like me) are expected to work both weeks so are in both 'bubbles' - plus the security staff who also do shifts at the fucking hospital. So they're not bubbles at all, are they?

yeah. That sounds like a lot of variables. I'm sure you'll be fine but understand the worry, given the circs.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The queue outside is to be managed by just two security staff, and I'm worried we'll get overwhelmed and people will just bum rush security and waltz in expecting to do their usual stuff

Why do you think that will happen at a public library, when it hasn't generally happened at supermarkets?

 

[Orang Utan]

Why do you think that will happen at a public library, when it hasn't generally happened at supermarkets?

Different situation

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Well Hancock made a statement to parliament about Leicester.

Non-essential businesses to close, upcoming easing wont be happening in Leicester, those who are shielding will need to continue to do so. And those that had a rather relaxed attitude towards schools should note that he mentioned children playing a particular role in this outbreak and that as a result the schools there will be closing again.

That'll be me. Although tbf part of my stance was that I said that all teachers should be tested before going back and then tested regularly after that (we have the capacity, allegedly).

 

[cupid_stunt]

Different situation

You think people are going to over power security to get in a library?

 

[Orang Utan]

You think people are going to over power security to get in a library?

Yes, it’s not just a library. People come to report repairs, rearrange council tax payments, rent arrears, register births and deaths, look for work, apply for housing benefit and council tax support and collect food bank vouchers and food parcels. Even in normal times, they’re often at quite a low point when they come in and are not always on their best behaviour. People are going to be even more desperate than they usually are and when they see the library open again, they’ll besiege the place. I’m sure it will calm down eventually but I’m not looking forward to the first week.

 

[two sheds]

And sometimes you just need to avoid the overdue book fines

 

[Orang Utan]

And sometimes you just need to avoid the overdue book fines

We don’t do fines any more and our system has autorenewed all overdues anyway

 

[two sheds]

We don’t do fines any more and our system has autorenewed all overdues anyway

ooo I'll be in

 

[Orang Utan]

This thread was posted by a US librarian who rues the day their library reopened prematurely:

 

[elbows]

Can anyone help out, work out what "Leicester" means in this context. It's not the city council area because that excludes the surrounding districts like Oadby and Blaby, which are definitely part of the urban conurbation.

If the cunts are giving "Leicester" a different set of rules to work with, perhaps it might be useful to tell people who and where it applies?

This is all I've seen so far so I guess it depends how imminently imminently is as to when the detail emerges:

Mr Hancock said details of the wards in Leicestershire affected by the new lockdown measures would be published "imminently".

Suburbs of Leicester, such as Oadby, Birstall and Glenfield, will be among those affected.

Leicester lockdown tightened as coronavirus cases rise

The local lockdown means non-essential shops are shut and schools will close for most pupils in the city.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[LDC]

Had a very brief chat to a friend this morning about this Leicester 'lockdown' and he was of the opinion it;s not really neded as the area within Leicester where the outbreak is is very small, and this is an attempt to fuck the economy of the city by the Tories as it's a Labour council.

He's a dead clever, normally very sensible friend, but even so my initial reaction was 'what complete conspiratorial bollocks' but I'd be interested to know if anyone else heard this idea knocking about, or think there's any credibility to it.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Latest ONS data for England & Wales, up to Fri. 19th June, has been released.

This is positive...

According to the ONS, the death rate in England and Wales fell to below average in mid June.

This was the first week when this happened since early March. The total number of deaths in week 25 was 0.7% below the five-year average for that week (65 deaths fewer).

England and Wales true coronavirus death toll almost 10,000 higher

According to the Office for National Statistics, there have been 9,844 more coronavirus deaths than government data suggests, as the ONS says the UK is no longer recording excess deaths by mid-June

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[Teaboy]

Had a very brief chat to a friend this morning about this Leicester 'lockdown' and he was of the opinion it;s not really neded as the area within Leicester where the outbreak is is very small, and this is an attempt to fuck the economy of the city by the Tories as it's a Labour council.

He's a dead clever, normally very sensible friend, but even so my initial reaction was 'what complete conspiratorial bollocks' but I'd be interested to know if anyone else heard this idea knocking about, or think there's any credibility to it.

There was an article on the BBC website yesterday and it had several vox pop one line interviews. I know you can't read much into these but I did find the attitude a little surprising because they were all basically saying 'it's not really fair on Leicester, we're no different to anyone else'. At a guess I'd say its about how the government have behaved and how they have communicated their message. Lockdown is a punishment and no one trusts the government's numbers and reasoning.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

The idea that it's lower than usual is slightly odd isn't it. Is that just a normal statistical variation in the underlying rate or is there an element of something about the situation reducing it - a reverse of the 'excess deaths' idea? Maybe large numbers of vulnerable people isolating has caused some reduction in the death rate in that group compared to what would have occurred otherwise?

 

[maomao]

Latest ONS data for England & Wales, up to Fri. 19th June, has been released.

This is positive...

0.7% below average is surely well within the normal range of average. Bit misleading.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The idea that it's lower than usual is slightly odd isn't it. Is that just a normal statistical variation in the underlying rate or is there an element of something about the situation reducing it - a reverse of the 'excess deaths' idea? Maybe large numbers of vulnerable people isolating has caused some reduction in the death rate in that group compared to what would have occurred otherwise?

The Mirror link above was limited with information, although saying it will be updated, at time of posting, bit more detail here...

In the week ending June 19 both hospitals and care homes the number of deaths fell below the average, with 782 and 49 fewer deaths respectively.

However, there were 827 excess deaths in people’s private homes.

Of the 9,339 deaths registered in the week ending June 19, 783 mentioned “novel coronavirus” – the lowest number of deaths involving Covid-19 for 12 weeks.

England and Wales deaths below average for first time since mid-March

The number of deaths registered in England and Wales over one week has fallen below the five-year average for the first time since mid March. New figures from the Office for National Statistics also reveal the true number of deaths linked to coronavirus in England is at least 8,919 higher than...

www.standard.co.uk

So, still 783 Covid-19 deaths, also worth remembering the death rate this year was already tracking below the 5-year average before C-19 rared its ugly head.

 

[redsquirrel]

The idea that it's lower than usual is slightly odd isn't it. Is that just a normal statistical variation in the underlying rate or is there an element of something about the situation reducing it - a reverse of the 'excess deaths' idea? Maybe large numbers of vulnerable people isolating has caused some reduction in the death rate in that group compared to what would have occurred otherwise?

Well 65 deaths could easily be down to provisional data or simple statistical variation.

However, there reputable statisticians like David Speigelhalter have pointed out that you could end up with lower than usual excess mortality over the next months 1, 2

To end on a cautionary note, excess mortality should also be examined in a longer-term perspective. Spiegelhalter (2020) argues the main impact of Covid-19 may be to shift forward the date of death by a few months for those close to death because of underlying poor health. Then, a peak in weekly deaths should be followed by a trough, see Table 2 for hints that this may be occurring in some countries. However, total years of life lost is a better measure of the pandemic’s social toll. Even in the extreme case envisaged by Spiegelhalter, if the 12-month moving average of excess mortality showed no deviation outside the -2, +2 normal range, total years of life lost could still show an upturn.

And if you look at the excess death data from the FT and NYT you might be seeing such appear in some countries (Spain for example).

That said I don't think anyone would say the data above confirms the hypothesis at the moment, just that it is something to bear in mind when looking at the excess death data.

 

[Teaboy]

I think the one thing you can take from it is that for the time being is that excess deaths are not way over and above what would be expected. Its a positive (albeit perhaps a temporary one) in a sea of bad news.

 

[baldrick]

Had a very brief chat to a friend this morning about this Leicester 'lockdown' and he was of the opinion it;s not really neded as the area within Leicester where the outbreak is is very small, and this is an attempt to fuck the economy of the city by the Tories as it's a Labour council.

He's a dead clever, normally very sensible friend, but even so my initial reaction was 'what complete conspiratorial bollocks' but I'd be interested to know if anyone else heard this idea knocking about, or think there's any credibility to it.

Well the area of the lockdown seems quite large (the red line). I think the grey areas were what was under consideration for inclusion. The area which has been in the news is Evington which is right at the eastern edge of the lockdown area.

 

[xenon]

Had a very brief chat to a friend this morning about this Leicester 'lockdown' and he was of the opinion it;s not really neded as the area within Leicester where the outbreak is is very small, and this is an attempt to fuck the economy of the city by the Tories as it's a Labour council.

He's a dead clever, normally very sensible friend, but even so my initial reaction was 'what complete conspiratorial bollocks' but I'd be interested to know if anyone else heard this idea knocking about, or think there's any credibility to it.

FWIW the Labour MP for Lecester East was calling for a local lock down yesterday on the radio. I'd be surprised if this theory has milage in light of that.

 

[platinumsage]

FWIW the Labour MP for Lecester East was calling for a local lock down yesterday on the radio. I'd be surprised if this theory has milage in light of that.

Yes, and they already tried a more localised lockdown:

Hancock said: "We really do have a Leicester specific outbreak in Leicester. I first mentioned the worries 11 days ago, since then we've been monitoring incredibly closely, we've put in extra testing, some schools were closed already, we also went into factories and workplaces where there were outbreaks, these measures have worked elsewhere. Targeted action wasn't working and that's why much broader action has been taken."

 

[elbows]

So, still 783 Covid-19 deaths, also worth remembering the death rate this year was already tracking below the 5-year average before C-19 rared its ugly head.

Exactly, and this was seen in figures from various other european countries too. The likes of the BBC mention mild weather in March, but I think a large part of it was that the seasonal flu wave was very early last winter, so by Feb & March there were likely less deaths than normal from flu.

Small fluctuations either side of the 5 year average are not really newsworthy. Some people, especially those interested in downplaying the toll of the pandemic because their attitude includes 'most of those people were going to die anyway', are interested in seeing whether there are bigger and more notable drops in the excess deaths below average in the months ahead, so they can make some points that will probably piss me off. The numbers that came out today are not within a range that really lets them set off down this path yet.

 

[xenon]

Yes, and they already tried a more localised lockdown:

Hancock said: "We really do have a Leicester specific outbreak in Leicester. I first mentioned the worries 11 days ago, since then we've been monitoring incredibly closely, we've put in extra testing, some schools were closed already, we also went into factories and workplaces where there were outbreaks, these measures have worked elsewhere. Targeted action wasn't working and that's why much broader action has been taken."

Not sure he's a reliable source. Having just said Keighley had a local outbreak. Bradford council tweet:
"Just to calm everyone down a bit… There's no new COVID-19 spike in Keighley. @MattHancock confused Keighley with a different area on TV and radio this morning."

 

[elbows]

Had a very brief chat to a friend this morning about this Leicester 'lockdown' and he was of the opinion it;s not really neded as the area within Leicester where the outbreak is is very small, and this is an attempt to fuck the economy of the city by the Tories as it's a Labour council.

He's a dead clever, normally very sensible friend, but even so my initial reaction was 'what complete conspiratorial bollocks' but I'd be interested to know if anyone else heard this idea knocking about, or think there's any credibility to it.

The mayor of Leicester has made me groan on several occasions already because he has come out with a mix of statements that include theories about why they are unfairly targeting Leicester. It came off like being in denial to me, but then again I dont have all the data presented to me in a form where I can actually judge for myself.

I'll try to fish out some quotes in a bit. Its a mixed bag, sometimes the mayor says sensible things, sometimes he displays little understanding of outbreak control and why Leicester has a problem.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The Mirror link above was limited with information, although saying it will be updated, at time of posting, bit more detail here...



So, still 783 Covid-19 deaths, also worth remembering the death rate this year was already tracking below the 5-year average before C-19 rared its ugly head.

Also, it's just one week. You have to allow for natural variation here. With slightly above-average deaths overall, you'd still expect the odd week to dip below the average just by natural variation.

Another explanation that may account for slightly low figures in the coming months is that a fair chunk of the very old and very ill have been killed off.

 

[elbows]

Not sure he's a reliable source. Having just said Keighley had a local outbreak. Bradford council tweet:
"Just to calm everyone down a bit… There's no new COVID-19 spike in Keighley. @MattHancock confused Keighley with a different area on TV and radio this morning."

Apart from random Hancock comments in public, the lack of pillar 2 data means we have just really one source of info with which to judge this stuff for ourselves. Its the map from the weekly surveillance report. It is plausible that other areas in darker red on this map may receive special attention in future.


From National COVID-19 surveillance report: 25 June 2020 (week 26)

 

[Teaboy]

The mayor of Leicester has made me groan on several occasions already because he has come out with a mix of statements that include theories about why they are unfairly targeting Leicester. It came off like being in denial to me, but then again I dont have all the data presented to me in a form where I can actually judge for myself.

I'll try to fish out some quotes in a bit. Its a mixed bag, sometimes the mayor says sensible things, sometimes he displays little understanding of outbreak control and why Leicester has a problem.

Yes, I thought that as well. He'd make a point something along the lines of 'the current rules are not working here because we are having a flair up so what is the worth in just doing the same for another 2 weeks'. Which in itself is a reasonable statement but he seemed to be using it as justification as to why they should be allowed to further open up in-line with the rest of the country. Which is odd.