Plumdaff
joy in people
And the lockdown area includes places like Wigston and Oadby in a solid Tory constituency so I don't think this is party political.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
His comments in recent days have ranged from the conciliatory and reasonable like this:
stricter-anticipated-leicester-council-reacts-4276473
To something in-between, where there is a mix of acceptance with lingering hints of denial and the idea that Leicester is being used as an experiment:
14h ago 22:20
To the earlier stuff you mentioned:
21h ago 15:31
There was at least one more quote that deserve to be in this file but I just cant find it right now.
It seems Sir Peter also has a record of not adhering to lockdown himself:
www.leicestermercury.co.uk
stricter-anticipated-leicester-council-reacts-4276473
To something in-between, where there is a mix of acceptance with lingering hints of denial and the idea that Leicester is being used as an experiment:
14h ago 22:20
To the earlier stuff you mentioned:
21h ago 15:31
There was at least one more quote that deserve to be in this file but I just cant find it right now.
It seems Sir Peter also has a record of not adhering to lockdown himself:
Leicester Mayor speaks out over lockdown visits to partner
There have been calls for him to resign and for the police to investigate his visits
elbows
Well-Known Member
The BBC have created their own version of that map I keep referencing.
Also from that article, I'm not the only one complaining about lack of press conferences.
Leicester lockdown: Police given 'minimal guidance' on new restrictions
Leicester's police and crime commissioner complains that agencies have been "drip-fed" information.
www.bbc.co.uk
Also from that article, I'm not the only one complaining about lack of press conferences.
Not to excuse Hancock screwing up with his Keighley reference earlier 
But that map above reminds me that Keighley is technically 'in' Bradford, local government boundaries-wise at least.
Most likely no connection, but ......
But that map above reminds me that Keighley is technically 'in' Bradford, local government boundaries-wise at least.
Most likely no connection, but ......
2hats
Dust.
FT highlighting the lack of readily accessible pillar 2 data...
From the FT mentioned in the twitter thread:
From the FT mentioned in the twitter thread:
Leicester lockdown exposes lack of local Covid testing data
Health secretary vows to publish more information but UK’s nations and regions fear they are not seeing the full picture
John Burn-Murdoch, Sarah Neville and Laura Hughes in London and Andy Bounds in Manchester 3 HOURS AGO
Daily coronavirus case numbers for the UK’s cities and regions contain only a fraction of the real total in those areas, according to data analysis by the Financial Times, hampering local authorities’ ability to control localised outbreaks of the virus.
Although the government publishes the total UK-wide figure for Covid-19 cases every day — including positive tests collected in hospitals and those processed at home and in commercial laboratories — at a subnational level the total of new daily cases contains only the number of positive tests recorded in hospitals.
Public Health England does publish a weekly breakdown of the two categories of tests results while the Welsh government publishes both pillar 1 (hospitals) and pillar 2 (commercial labs and home tests) data on a daily basis.
But, while PHE releases full data for nine of England’s main regions such as Yorkshire & the Humber with a two-week delay, hundreds of local authorities in the rest of the country are unable to see a timely picture of what is happening in their communities or compare that with other cities and regions of the UK.
Chart showing that Pillar 2 tests account for an ever-growing share of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in England
This gap in the subnational and regional data has been cited by local political leaders and health officials in Leicester as one of the reasons for the delay in locking down the east Midlands city.
“For weeks we have been trying to get information about the level of testing in the city and the results of that testing in the city,” Peter Soulsby, mayor of Leicester, told the BBC on Tuesday.
According to published data for Leicester, the city recorded just 80 new positive tests between June 13-26. But, in announcing the decision to tighten the lockdown in Leicester, closing non-essential shops and ordering schools to shut to all non-key worker pupils by Thursday, health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that there were in fact 944.
Leicester city council’s public health department only received those figures last Thursday. They could not compare with places elsewhere because those pillar 2 figures are only made available to local officials in their own local authority area provided they have signed the Data Protection Act.
“I would wish that they had shared that [data] with us right from the start,” said Sir Peter. “And I wish they had taken a more speedy decision rather than leaving it 11 days. That's a long gap and a long time for the virus to spread.”
Chart showing that Leicester’s new outbreak is visible only in Pillar 2 data, which the government does not make public
A Public Health England official, who declined to be named, said non-publication was a ministerial decision. “The Department for Health and Social Care need to make the decision to publish — and they should — but we can’t push them because we are their arms-length body.”
The issues go beyond availability of the data: its quality and the speed with which it is disseminated, too, leave much to be desired, say public health leaders.
Kate Ardern, who leads health protection and emergency planning for Greater Manchester, said the information being sent to local authorities from tests conducted under pillar two lacked the granularity or timeliness needed to pre-empt an outbreak.
For the past two months she and colleagues had been making their concerns known to officials and ministers, she said.
“If I don't know who is being tested, and getting positive tests, in the community because one of the major elements of the testing system isn't currently sending me complete and reliable intelligence . . . it actually hampers our ability to get ahead of the curve on outbreak management,” said Ms Ardern.
Chart showing that the issue is especially acute in Yorkshire & the Humber and the East Midlands, where new upticks are only visible in pillar 2 data
The government stresses that more information has been given to local public health officials this month.
Since June 11, NHS Digital had made available an operational data dashboard with counts of total tests, total positives and total voids per local authority to Directors of Public Health.
The DHSC said: “We have been working closely with our local partners, providing them with the resources and tools so that they can take swift action to deal with any new local spikes in infections.”
Health secretary vows to publish more information but UK’s nations and regions fear they are not seeing the full picture
John Burn-Murdoch, Sarah Neville and Laura Hughes in London and Andy Bounds in Manchester 3 HOURS AGO
Daily coronavirus case numbers for the UK’s cities and regions contain only a fraction of the real total in those areas, according to data analysis by the Financial Times, hampering local authorities’ ability to control localised outbreaks of the virus.
Although the government publishes the total UK-wide figure for Covid-19 cases every day — including positive tests collected in hospitals and those processed at home and in commercial laboratories — at a subnational level the total of new daily cases contains only the number of positive tests recorded in hospitals.
Public Health England does publish a weekly breakdown of the two categories of tests results while the Welsh government publishes both pillar 1 (hospitals) and pillar 2 (commercial labs and home tests) data on a daily basis.
But, while PHE releases full data for nine of England’s main regions such as Yorkshire & the Humber with a two-week delay, hundreds of local authorities in the rest of the country are unable to see a timely picture of what is happening in their communities or compare that with other cities and regions of the UK.
Chart showing that Pillar 2 tests account for an ever-growing share of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in England
This gap in the subnational and regional data has been cited by local political leaders and health officials in Leicester as one of the reasons for the delay in locking down the east Midlands city.
“For weeks we have been trying to get information about the level of testing in the city and the results of that testing in the city,” Peter Soulsby, mayor of Leicester, told the BBC on Tuesday.
According to published data for Leicester, the city recorded just 80 new positive tests between June 13-26. But, in announcing the decision to tighten the lockdown in Leicester, closing non-essential shops and ordering schools to shut to all non-key worker pupils by Thursday, health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that there were in fact 944.
Leicester city council’s public health department only received those figures last Thursday. They could not compare with places elsewhere because those pillar 2 figures are only made available to local officials in their own local authority area provided they have signed the Data Protection Act.
“I would wish that they had shared that [data] with us right from the start,” said Sir Peter. “And I wish they had taken a more speedy decision rather than leaving it 11 days. That's a long gap and a long time for the virus to spread.”
Chart showing that Leicester’s new outbreak is visible only in Pillar 2 data, which the government does not make public
A Public Health England official, who declined to be named, said non-publication was a ministerial decision. “The Department for Health and Social Care need to make the decision to publish — and they should — but we can’t push them because we are their arms-length body.”
The issues go beyond availability of the data: its quality and the speed with which it is disseminated, too, leave much to be desired, say public health leaders.
Kate Ardern, who leads health protection and emergency planning for Greater Manchester, said the information being sent to local authorities from tests conducted under pillar two lacked the granularity or timeliness needed to pre-empt an outbreak.
For the past two months she and colleagues had been making their concerns known to officials and ministers, she said.
“If I don't know who is being tested, and getting positive tests, in the community because one of the major elements of the testing system isn't currently sending me complete and reliable intelligence . . . it actually hampers our ability to get ahead of the curve on outbreak management,” said Ms Ardern.
Chart showing that the issue is especially acute in Yorkshire & the Humber and the East Midlands, where new upticks are only visible in pillar 2 data
The government stresses that more information has been given to local public health officials this month.
Since June 11, NHS Digital had made available an operational data dashboard with counts of total tests, total positives and total voids per local authority to Directors of Public Health.
The DHSC said: “We have been working closely with our local partners, providing them with the resources and tools so that they can take swift action to deal with any new local spikes in infections.”
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elbows
Well-Known Member
You heard it here first!
Speaking of data, Johnson promised to keep the daily press conference data going but it looks like after doing that last week, they are now expecting another version of the shitty dashboard to carry the load. Except this dashboard wont even have regional breakdowns for another week, and some of the hospital data its supposed to show is well out of date.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
This is the dashboard I was just talking about:
coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk
Look at the state of the healthcare section. No figure for patients admitted daily since 16th June. 4 days lag with the ventilator figures. No regional breakdown for numbers currently in hospital.
If they stick the right data into it in future then I may yet come to praise the dashboard compared to what came before. On the site that used to show all the daily press briefing slides and now directs people to that dashboard, it says 'Lower geographical breakdowns will be available on 6 July.' so I could even hope that this dashboard might eventually give me access to local test data that includes pillar 2. I'd be a fool to bank on that though, lets see what happens on the 6th.
Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard
Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK
coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk
Look at the state of the healthcare section. No figure for patients admitted daily since 16th June. 4 days lag with the ventilator figures. No regional breakdown for numbers currently in hospital.
If they stick the right data into it in future then I may yet come to praise the dashboard compared to what came before. On the site that used to show all the daily press briefing slides and now directs people to that dashboard, it says 'Lower geographical breakdowns will be available on 6 July.' so I could even hope that this dashboard might eventually give me access to local test data that includes pillar 2. I'd be a fool to bank on that though, lets see what happens on the 6th.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
sadly the ministers are trotted out depressingly frequently and none of them seem to have died.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Well not bodies, just a range of data that should be subject to much less lag than the deaths. The sort of data we'd need to draw our own conclusions and make informed decisions.
Since the Leicester thing became big news they chucked a couple of these hidden numbers to the public as one-offs. Here in Nuneaton our outbreak was considered newsworthy and I can see how many died in hospital so far from it, but they didnt feel like telling us how many were admitted to hospital, currently in hospital and ICU, or how many people in the area tested positive.
elbows
Well-Known Member
At least the belated sharing of such a graph, albeit in one off form and only for Leicester, indicates that the crappy data situation for pillar 2 does not still extend to all levels of that system and the government itself. At least they have been able to cobble together the data internally, even if they arent routinely sharing it with us.
Of course there is also the danger that if they start publishing all this data it might take me a while to notice and track it down, so I could still be spouting on about this after the data situation has moved on.
Meanwhile I was looking at live updates from a local Leicester paper and there was one more mayor Soulsby quote I couldnt resist
www.leicestermercury.co.uk
Of course there is also the danger that if they start publishing all this data it might take me a while to notice and track it down, so I could still be spouting on about this after the data situation has moved on.
Meanwhile I was looking at live updates from a local Leicester paper and there was one more mayor Soulsby quote I couldnt resist
Live: Leicester lockdown to feature in Downing St briefing
Reaction as the Government asks the city to stick to new restrictions for two weeks
elbows
Well-Known Member
Pillar one is the original NHS/PHE testing. They could never ramp this up all that much, so after some additional weeks of failure to meet the challenge they effectively admitted defeat and added commercial partners to do the broader testing, and since tended to reserve pillar 1 for hospitals/health workers.
The initial ramp up of pillar 2 was a rushed effort in order to meet a now infamous target. Since then its kept expanding, well sort of, but there have been numerous issues with the quality of the data, how quickly it is available, how widely it is shared, not just with the public but with local authorities. I believe Panorama went into a lot of the issues the other day.
Its one of the main things the official UK Statistics Authority has been having a go at the government about in recent weeks. I believe this will force the government into sharing more of the data, and I expect the dashboard I was on about earlier may be the eventual destination for this data and forms the basis of what the government will offer in order to be abe to say they have dealt with the stats authorities complaint.
One of the few bits of useful data on the beta dashboard is which pillars make up the daily test numbers, as this was another aspect of the stats authorities complaint. So on this one, dark blue is pillar 1 and light blue is pillar 2.
From Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK
There are probably still some flaws in terms of data from pillar 2. Such flaws have tended to involve issues with length of time to obtain results, missing important bits of personal data to go with each result, problems with systems to collate and share the data at all levels. When we hear quotes from the authorities in Leicester talking about how they only got things like postcode data last Thursday, thats an example of longstanding pillar 2 data issues coming to a head.
I'll return to this subject if there are no signs of them fixing the public data sharing side of this by July 6th.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Having to resort to quoting a tory when seeking Leicester possible explanations.
Ah yes the garment industry, I dont think sweatshops have received much attention in the pandemic yet.
Quotes are from the same local live updates page as I linked to earlier Live: Leicester goes back into lockdown as non-essential shops close
From the same page, Leicestershire police have been using a novel ecstacy-based approach it seems.
Ah yes the garment industry, I dont think sweatshops have received much attention in the pandemic yet.
Quotes are from the same local live updates page as I linked to earlier Live: Leicester goes back into lockdown as non-essential shops close
From the same page, Leicestershire police have been using a novel ecstacy-based approach it seems.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
The Sussex Police and Crime Commissioner came out with those four Es the other day, so probably a national policy.
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
BassJunkie
Clams on the half shell, and roller skates.
I live in Leicester City, I'd just like to extend my thanks to those who have been pointing out the difference between Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 results. For some reason, I'm now taking more interest in the data 
.
.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I live in Leicester City, I'd just like to extend my thanks to those who have been pointing out the difference between Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 results. For some reason, I'm now taking more interest in the data
Here's hoping you are not in lockdown for too long, and things get under control ASAP.
Asked to explain how the local lockdown for areas of Leicester could possibly be enforced the Police and Crime Commissioner laughed before saying he had himself been unable to find this out.This was William Bach a notable local lawyer (albeit one specialising in Crime)
BassJunkie
Clams on the half shell, and roller skates.
Thank you that's appreciated. It's not so bad, I get to work from home (still), although it means I'll also be home schooling and looking after my 8 year old alone from Thursday (as Mrs Bassjunkie is a teacher who works in a different county). I'm looking at that as quality time.Here's hoping you are not in lockdown for too long, and things get under control ASAP.
It does make me more reluctant though to visit my weed dealer. It's funny perhaps that it's taken a global deadly pandemic to do that. And is the epitome of a first world problem.
I've no doubt that the world beating track and trace testing will arrive any minute now to save us
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
He can fuck the fuck off with most of that. Without knowing the source of this outbreak, it could be anything, and I'd bet it will be either a hospital-related thing or a shit employer somewhere like it seems to be with most of the fresh outbreaks across Europe atm. I guess we're going to see a lot of this stuff now. It's your fault for not behaving. I have no stats to back that up, but it's my firm prejudice and I'm sticking to it.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
TBF the lockdown has largely been successful due to people doing the right thing, and not because of enforcement.
elbows
Well-Known Member
When an outbreak reaches this size its not just about a 'source', its about the ongoing spread.
A lot of what he described is perfectly in keeping with conventional wisdom when it comes to epidemic modelling and factors such as multi-generational households.
A different sort of younger people, those at school, have already been identified in this Leicester outbreak and thats one of the stated reasons for schools closing again. And when it comes down to how much people adhered to lockdown, the government chose only to share very limited, positive looking data with us about that (eg those transport geraphs that were a regular feature of the daily briefings). So I dont think we've had a proper sense of how well the lockdown was adhered to during the peak, let alone later, and so havent had too many sensible conversations about that sort of stuff.
Anyway I dont think you've understood the current Leicester situation. What you are describing are the sorts of clusters of cases that are identified in relation to particular locations of employment etc. If there are just one or two of these in an area then there is one kind of response, the individual establishments in question are closed and/or subject o a lot of heavily directed testing. What has happened in Leicester is at least one level beyond that, its not an outbreak that they think they can manage by identifying and managing a single premises or workforce. Its broader and so they take the response up a gear or two, which in this case means Leicester as a whole has ended up with its own lockdown restrictions.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I may as well quote Hancock from his Leicester statement yesterday in order to explain further what I was just on about with different levels of outbreak.
This is not a perfect fit for what I just said in previous post, and I'm not used to using their terminology in the way they are using it yet, but hopefully the overall idea of this system makes some sense. I have left out the subsequent part where he goes on about local action committee bronze, silver and gold command structures but its available in full at Health Secretary's statement on Leicester lockdown in full
This is not a perfect fit for what I just said in previous post, and I'm not used to using their terminology in the way they are using it yet, but hopefully the overall idea of this system makes some sense. I have left out the subsequent part where he goes on about local action committee bronze, silver and gold command structures but its available in full at Health Secretary's statement on Leicester lockdown in full
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure when I will get a chance to read all the SAGE papers and minutes that have been released since I last dedicated time to that task. But in the meantime, here are just a few random snippets of information dating from the minutes of their June 11th meeting, because I did find time to skim through that single one this evening.
(that serology one is antibody stuff)
quimcunx
imprimeo, lamino, distribuo
I think its fair not to accept 'young people not adhering to lockdown' as a reason. That happens everywhere. It might be a number of shitty employers/types of employment which can be concentrated in areas or young people having to work or attend school while parents work. Combined with more multi generational housing/lack of appropriate housing stock.
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