Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[maomao]

I think its fair not to accept 'young people not adhering to lockdown' as a reason. That happens everywhere. It might be a number of shitty employers/types of employment which can be concentrated in areas or young people having to work or attend school while parents work. Combined with more multi generational housing/lack of appropriate housing stock.

It would be nice to see some evidence at least. We know the food processing and garment factories have been open. I haven't seen any evidence that the people of Leicester have been more or less lax than the people of anywhere else in their private lives.

 

[Supine]

I’m seriously worried that we don’t understand the real situation if Pilar 2 testing isn’t being reported and it’s as significant as that ft chart shows.

Journalists / Labour really need to hold the gov to account on this. Totally unacceptable.

 

[elbows]

I wasnt totally agreeing with everything he said but since I was going to quote some of the things he mentioned I thought I should include all of them.

I would expect that its often a combination of factors which will cause these notably large problems.

So then some of these same things become not a dodgy question of whether people 'behaved worse', but whether such factors that have happened everywhere then combine with specific local factors. Because none of these different groups and risks of infection exist in isolation. Younger peoples behaviour could act as one vector that spreads it amongs their own cohort and gets it into specific households, and of course all manner of other directions of viral travel between different groups and settings.

This stuff is also why people who looked at the health risks to kids from this virus and decided that schools were not a big deal and should get back to it, have missed the point. Its about their role in transmission between households and to the vulnerable indirectly.

 

[elbows]

I’m seriously worried that we don’t understand the real situation if Pilar 2 testing isn’t being reported and it’s as significant as that ft chart shows.

Journalists / Labour really need to hold the gov to account on this. Totally unacceptable.

Its an issue thats been waiting to explode, it just needed the right context. Whether it will actually explode now as a media and political issue I would not like to guess. It bloody well should, but then I would say that about all the other times the government has been screwy with public data and normally I dont see many people ranting about it other than me.

So just to be clear, we have still been getting this pillars overall numbers included in headline daily cases positive figures. Its all the regional detail we are missing, which obviously matters so much in this phase.

Apart from that, when it comes to pillar 1 & 2 combined data, there is just the colour-coded weekly map, and the stuff for Leicester that the media seem to have managed to drag out of PHE in the last 24 hours.

I believe there are about 4 previous weeks worth of that colour-coded map to give us some basic sense of how the situation has evolved over time. I may attempt to post them as a series shortly, not the quality of data I want to be dealing with but I'll have to make do with what we can get right now.

If the UK turns out to be similar to the USA and some of the comments I've heard coming out of Leicester recently, another of the issues with testing data during this phase is that some people will claim that 'place x is only showing more positives because more testing is being done recently'. The authorities in the USA who are actually trying to counter that sort of sentiment have therefore resorted to making a lot of noise about the percentage of tests that come back positive. They've been pointing out in public briefings that such numbers enable comparisons with the past to be made without the distortion caused by varying quantity of tests taken over time.

 

[elbows]

OK here is an attempt to show all the maps available over time so far. It might end up a bit large so I'm putting it behind spoiler tags.

Spoiler

As I've said before beware, the large areas of many authorities (eg county level authorities) dilutes the data when its only given to us in this form. For example perhaps the whole of Warwickshire turned orange for week 24 because of the effect of the Nuneaton cluster. Perhaps if the data was on the level where Nuneaton & Bedworth had its own figures, it would have gone red and the rest of Warwickshire would have stayed yellow. So even as a snapshot this stuff is still just not good enough to properly judge, its a start with some strong clues.

 

[elbows]

The reporter on the BBC Midlands Today (west midlands edition) sounds rather tired of trying to get decent info out of the authorities in regards the George Eliot hospital outbreak. I cannot quote him accurately but tonight he seemed to have reached the inevitable conclusion that it was largely a story of a hospital outbreak, and he detailed the account of relatives of a patient who went in for a leg infection, tested negative at that time, got moved to several other wards and at some later stage tested positive, declined in health and passed away. He also did the same thing I did some days ago and decoded the few slippery stats we were given in a statement and said that 65% of the identified cases in this outbreak likely being hospital acquired. He did give some good news about the number of positive patients who are in the George Eliot hospital now having fallen, but I forget what the number was, it might have been 8. Unfortunately one of the reasons this number is now low is that a lot of the people affected died.

 

[weepiper]

tbh some of what is coming out of Scotland atm smacks of nationalist hubris. Measures are being taken in Leicester. What exactly does Sturgeon want? And she and others are jumping on good recent numbers rather quickly. Also, there are Scotland-sized chunks of England that are doing just as well as Scotland atm. Anywhere is still prone to a big infection incident, including Scotland.

I don't think you're very well informed here.

Scotland could eliminate the coronavirus – if it weren't for England

Scotland may be only weeks away from no new daily cases of coronavirus. As the nation gets close, cases from over the border will become a big problem

www.newscientist.com

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't think you're very well informed here.

Scotland could eliminate the coronavirus – if it weren't for England

Scotland may be only weeks away from no new daily cases of coronavirus. As the nation gets close, cases from over the border will become a big problem

www.newscientist.com

People were saying very similar things about London in mid-May, that it was weeks away from eliminating the virus. This hasn't happened anywhere in Europe. It is rather odd to think it might happen in Scotland before countries that have handled things far better.

 

[Roadkill]

Matt Hancock strikes again...

 

[Spandex]

With the Leicestershire Police and Crime Commissioner popping up in the news the last few days to complain that he doesn't have a clue what's going on I realised that I'd completely forgotten about the existence of Police and Crime Commissioners. It seems that in an unprecedented blow to democracy the PCC elections in May were cancelled until May 2021. How will British democracy survive this?

 

[teuchter]

I don't think you're very well informed here.

Scotland could eliminate the coronavirus – if it weren't for England

Scotland may be only weeks away from no new daily cases of coronavirus. As the nation gets close, cases from over the border will become a big problem

www.newscientist.com

That article basically says it's unlikely scotland will be able to achieve elimination.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Matt Hancock strikes again...

Think he's deleted it, always screenshot embarrassing tweets.

With the Leicestershire Police and Crime Commissioner popping up in the news the last few days to complain that he doesn't have a clue what's going on I realised that I'd completely forgotten about the existence of Police and Crime Commissioners. It seems that in an unprecedented blow to democracy the PCC elections in May were cancelled until May 2021. How will British democracy survive this?

God I hate the absolute farce that are PCCs and how they got implemented. Has any PCC ever done anything useful in post?

 

[LDC]

Matt Hancock strikes again...

What area did he mean? Bradford is supposed to be one of those areas in line for a local lockdown as well (although Keighley is out of Bradford a fair bit).

 

[Roadkill]

What area did he mean? Bradford is supposed to be one of those areas in line for a local lockdown as well (although Keighley is out of Bradford a fair bit).

Kirklees, I believe.

 

[William of Walworth]

What area did he mean? Bradford is supposed to be one of those areas in line for a local lockdown as well (although Keighley is out of Bradford a fair bit).

I posted yesterday (further up), that Keighley is within the Bradford local government area, as you know I think.
But yes, they're really not that near each other!

And if Hancock was mixing Keighley up with Kirklees (main town : Huddersfield) then he's a lot more rubbish at geography than most people!

 

[zahir]

Some background to the Leicester lockdown.

Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come in, report warns

Allegations come as city begins second lockdown after infection rates increase

www.theguardian.com

One unnamed worker quoted in the report said he had told his employer he was unwell but was told to come in to work anyway – even after testing positive. He was told not to tell any other workers about the result, the report said. In one factory with 80 staff, around 15 had Covid-19 at the same time, another worker told the authors.

 

[scifisam]

Nails is basically touching someone else's hands for ages. It's also really not that important, whereas loads of people really want haircuts. FFS the line has to go somewhere, if they let nails open then some moaners would be why nails and not massages or something.

I haven't had many manicures in my life, probably about 8 overall, but the last one I had - at a Vietnamese-run nail bar at Stratford Westfield - the nail technicians all wore masks and disposable gloves, and that was long before covid. Masks and gloves make the chances of transmission really pretty low.

I don't get them often enough to have a vested interested, but there isn't a very good public health argument against reopening nail parlours when hairdressers are open. A lot of nail technicians work in hairdressers so it wouldn't even mean opening up an extra building and trying to keep that clean too.

I think it's because she's got back issues tbh. And from what she said they are the only two people in the building.

I'm pretty sure that was illegal, unless it was at a hospital and was actually physio (though physio sessions were cancelled for most people too). See here:

In England, the government has published Close contact services: Guidance for keeping workers and clients safe in close contact services (23 June), in which it states that while hairdressers and barbershops can re-open on 4 July, other businesses offering close contact services such as beauty, sports and massage therapy, and wellbeing and holistic services, are to remain closed “until further notice”:

I get occasional massages for health reasons too - despite the joke about happy endings I think most of the massage business in the UK is legitimately for massages, occasionally for health reasons and sometimes just because it's really nice and good for your overall health.

But you really can't do a massage with gloves on, and masks would be difficult for both the masseur and the customer to wear.

So although I really, really need a massage because my shoulders are getting worse and worse, I can understand them not reopening. And I think your Mum's masseur was breaking the law - probably why there was nobody else in the building.

 

[Roadkill]

I posted yesterday (further up), that Keighley is within the Bradford local government area, as you know I think.
But yes, they're really not that near each other!

And if Hancock was mixing Keighley up with Kirklees (main town : Huddersfield) then he's a lot more rubbish at geography than most people!

Shades of Dominic Raab not understanding Dover and the cross-channel ferries!

Where do they dredge these morons up from?!

 

[flypanam]

Shades of Dominic Raab not understanding Dover and the cross-channel ferries!

Where do they dredge these morons up from?!

Elite private schools and oxbridge?

 

[Roadkill]

Elite private schools and oxbridge?

Well yes, but they do also turn out people who can actually tie their own shoelaces, so there's got to be another explanation!

 

[two sheds]

Well yes, but they do also turn out people who can actually tie their own shoelaces, so there's got to be another explanation!

Most of them have people to tie their shoelaces for them.

 

[Roadkill]

Most of them have people to tie their shoelaces for them.

Can we not descend into stereotypes? There's a genuine question here about the poor quality of the current Tory front bench. Public-school arrogance is doubtless part of it, but in all seriousness there are other reasons why such complete muppets have ended up running the show...

 

[maomao]

Well yes, but they do also turn out people who can actually tie their own shoelaces, so there's got to be another explanation!

Well they're a self selecting group which is part of the problem as they tend to reinforce each other's ignorance. There's a lot to be said for government by lottery.

 

[elbows]

The BBC has an artile about the dreadful data situation and its impact on ability to manage outbreaks locally:

Coronavirus: Local testing data to be shared with councils

Leicester's mayor said officials had been trying to get hold of local data "for weeks".

www.bbc.co.uk

Includes this detail:

Prof Azeem Majeed, from Imperial College London, said the country had been slow in areas of its response to Covid-19, pointing to officials in Leicester and PHE only signing a data sharing agreement on Wednesday.

Does not include anything about the public being given the same sort of information in a detailed and timely manner. Again I'm not calling for them to give us the postcode etc personal info about cases, but we at least deserve regularly updated pillar 2 test data of the more general but still localised variety.

 

[two sheds]

Public-school arrogance is doubtless part of it, but in all seriousness there are other reasons why such complete muppets have ended up running the show...

Can we not descend into stereotypes?

 

[MickiQ]

Well they're a self selecting group which is part of the problem as they tend to reinforce each other's ignorance. There's a lot to be said for government by lottery.

It's not so much as self-selecting group as a tiny clique (probably just BoZo and Blind Dominic) that selects only MP's whose particular views agree with theirs or are sufficiently self-serving to put their own views aside for a sniff of power. There are 365 Tory MP's but I suspect that Blind Dominic's influence is sufficient to filter out those who aren't on board with the 'project' as it were, so the actual pool is very small. I think that when BoZo goes (I'm not sure he will last until 2024), Cummings will heaved out the door and there will be a significant clear out of the Cabinet.

 

[maomao]

It's not so much as self-selecting group as a tiny clique (probably just BoZo and Blind Dominic) that selects only MP's whose particular views agree with theirs or are sufficiently self-serving to put their own views aside for a sniff of power. There are 365 Tory MP's but I suspect that Blind Dominic's influence is sufficient to filter out those who aren't on board with the 'project' as it were, so the actual pool is very small. I think that when BoZo goes (I'm not sure he will last until 2024), Cummings will heaved out the door and there will be a significant clear out of the Cabinet.

I seriously doubt the presence of any significant talent in the PCP outside the Johnson clique. I've met my Tory MP. He's a dribbling idiot. Most of them are.

 

[elbows]

The latest insulting attempt to obfuscate in Nuneaton:

"It is important to note that these are complex issues and there are many different sets of data to analyse and compare, with the picture changing by the hour, so we don’t underestimate how difficult these issues are to manage," the statement explained.

"It’s critical that we don’t trivialise this information as its not helpful to local residents or those who are working so on the wards.

Oh fuck off with the trivialise comment, pathetic.

"Whilst the analysis of data continues, we do know that several weeks ago that there were a higher level of new Covid cases in the Nuneaton and Bedworth community. There is further investigation underway to work out exactly where these new cases emanated from."

"We are pleased that changes to process and procedure are now being made at the Eliot, which seem to have made a very positive effect on reducing new cases," the statement adds.

All the other waffle and yet that last sentence seems to manage to point in the actual direction of truth.

MPs warning after large scale gatherings break social distancing rules

Stark warming comes after a local rise in cases

www.coventrytelegraph.net

 

[flypanam]

Can we not descend into stereotypes? There's a genuine question here about the poor quality of the current Tory front bench. Public-school arrogance is doubtless part of it, but in all seriousness there are other reasons why such complete muppets have ended up running the show...

I agree. Corey Robin wrote a book called The reactionary mind, the basic premise is that the right wing is not so taken with the status quo that what animated them is fear that they can lose something dear to them, whatever it is. They are really fearful of the liberation of the masses as they think our liberation would make the world dull. He argues that it is times of a strong left that the right is most intellectually stimulated, a claim that I think shadows an argument by Perry Anderson in an essay in the LRB about 4 leading conservative thinkers. Robin says that given that the right has won nearly every arguement and that they have moulded the world in their image that we are seeing the elevation of people to positions of influence that no longer have any intellectual rigour because all they have had to do is go to the right schools, network and repeat their ideology constantly and they get rewarded.

Perry Anderson · The Intransigent Right at the End of the Century

www.lrb.co.uk

The conservative movement was destined to produce Trump

Corey Robin on Trump’s place in the conservative tradition.

www.google.com

 

[blameless77]

When an outbreak reaches this size its not just about a 'source', its about the ongoing spread.

A lot of what he described is perfectly in keeping with conventional wisdom when it comes to epidemic modelling and factors such as multi-generational households.

A different sort of younger people, those at school, have already been identified in this Leicester outbreak and thats one of the stated reasons for schools closing again. And when it comes down to how much people adhered to lockdown, the government chose only to share very limited, positive looking data with us about that (eg those transport geraphs that were a regular feature of the daily briefings). So I dont think we've had a proper sense of how well the lockdown was adhered to during the peak, let alone later, and so havent had too many sensible conversations about that sort of stuff.

Anyway I dont think you've understood the current Leicester situation. What you are describing are the sorts of clusters of cases that are identified in relation to particular locations of employment etc. If there are just one or two of these in an area then there is one kind of response, the individual establishments in question are closed and/or subject o a lot of heavily directed testing. What has happened in Leicester is at least one level beyond that, its not an outbreak that they think they can manage by identifying and managing a single premises or workforce. Its broader and so they take the response up a gear or two, which in this case means Leicester as a whole has ended up with its own lockdown restrictions.

This article in the Guardian suggests that there are issues with the garment industry:

Some Leicester factories stayed open and forced staff to come ...www.theguardian.com › uk-news › jun › some-leicester...