Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[xenon]

The people leaving their shit in bags on the beach. Into the sea with these scum. The people not bagging up first, smashed kneecaps, then into the sea.

 

[sovereignb]

The people leaving their shit in bags on the beach. Into the sea with these scum. The people not bagging up first, smashed kneecaps, then into the sea.

People have been shitting in the sand?????

 

[Combustible]

I'm still pretty relaxed about the beach scares. The beach/park/demo scares have all come to nothing so far. Outside isn't an easy place to catch it.

Some people seem to be giving it their best shot though

 

[xenon]

People have been shitting in the sand?????

There have been reports of that, yeah. e.g.

People pooing on beaches as public toilets remain shut

Dogs are said to have been rolling in human faeces and even eating it

www.somersetlive.co.uk

 

[elbows]

I suppose my position is similar to Fergusons in many respects. Although I dont really rule out national lockdowns if things were first allowed to spiral out of control again, I assume Ferguson says otherwise because he doesnt expect the situation to be allowed to get that bad again across the whole nation.

Coronavirus: Second national lockdown not needed - Neil Ferguson

Prof Neil Ferguson tells the BBC he expects to see a targeted approach to tackling local outbreaks.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So-called Pillar 3 testing involves antibody tests, and the govt website states that nearly a million of these have been carried out now. But I can't find any information about the results. Has anyone seen anything on this?

 

[two sheds]

Sensible

Health experts considering new testing option in US

The White House Coronavirus Task Force was now "seriously considering" pool testing for Covid-19 as a way to better improve the US' testing capabilities as coronavirus cases rise.

"Something's not working," Dr Anthony Fauci told The Washington Post. "I mean, you can do all the diagramming you want, but something is not working."

The strategy of pool testing mixes several samples together of different people into one batch or "pool". This mixture would then be tested using one diagnostic Covid-19 test. If the test comes back negative, you then eliminate all of the people from having the novel virus. If the test comes back positive, health professionals then go back and test each individual within the group.

Dr Deborah Birx, a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said the new approach could help better inform officials of where the virus is spreading.

"If you look around the globe, the way people are doing a million tests or 10 million tests is they're doing pooling," Dr Birx said during an online conference of the American Society for Microbiology. "Pooling would give us the capacity to go from a half a million tests a day to potentially 5 million individuals tested per day by those poolings."

The new approach was not currently being used by officials, but it was under consideration as an option.

Follow the latest Trump and US coronavirus news - live

Follow latest updates on Trump administration and US politics

www.independent.co.uk

 

[andysays]

So-called Pillar 3 testing involves antibody tests, and the govt website states that nearly a million of these have been carried out now. But I can't find any information about the results. Has anyone seen anything on this?

There's some (not much, TBH) info here, from yesterday

Coronavirus: Antibody test lacks 'proper assessment'

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There's some (not much, TBH) info here, from yesterday

Coronavirus: Antibody test lacks 'proper assessment'

Thanks. So not being used for large-scale studies as I'd hoped.

 

[andysays]

Thanks. So not being used for large-scale studies as I'd hoped.

I think it is being used for some studies, eg the one on 10,000 healthcare workers mentioned in the article, though depends what you mean by large scale.

Originally the antibody test was touted/seen by some as a way of telling who had immunity and therefore something of a silver bullet towards some individuals being able to avoid lockdown restrictions. Once doubts emerged about that, it seems not to have got the attention it had, at least in the mainstream media, don't know about the medical world.

 

[elbows]

There are multiple studies. Some of them have not scaled up in the ways first imagined though, and much of the government emphasis seems to have shifted to the NHS staff and care worker antibody tests. I suspect they have some operational plans for autumn-winter that require such data.

As for other antibody studies, here are two other examples:

First the disappointing one. Antibody testing is supposed to be part of the ONS pilot survey into household infections. But I think the blood test component of this has stalled, that side of the data can go a long time without an update, they barely mention it in their weekly narrative these days, and the numbers involved have been pathetic so far. For exampe this is from a spreadhseet of the data from their latest report.


(Weekly report is at Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot - Office for National Statistics )

By far the most promising UK antibody stuff, in terms of the data actually being published for the public on a regular basis, is the Public Health England one that makes use of people who are donating blood for the usual non-pandemic reasons.

Sero-surveillance of COVID-19

www.gov.uk

 

[iona]

Antibody testing is supposed to be part of the ONS pilot survey into household infections. But I think the blood test component of this has stalled,

I'm taking part in this (the main study, not the pilot, afaik) and the person who came to do my tests the other day said they'd tell my GP if the swab was positive, but they weren't giving antibody results out as the test for that is still being validated. Not sure if/how that applies to published study data rather than individual results.

 

[elbows]

I'm taking part in this (the main study, not the pilot, afaik) and the person who came to do my tests the other day said they'd tell my GP if the swab was positive, but they weren't giving antibody results out as the test for that is still being validated. Not sure if/how that applies to published study data rather than individual results.

Applies to individual results going back to the person, they will still use that data for research.

I'm assuming there were several reasons why the antibody side of things in the ONS survey you are part of has not scaled up well yet. They might have struggled to get enough capacity regarding nurses coming to homes to take the blood samples. There could be issues with the Oxford Uni side of things where the samples are being analysed. I'll keep an eye on it to see if this improves in the published data at some point.

Similar story with a research study I've just been asked to participate in. Its the one where they are evaluating a simple saliva-based test for determining who is currently infected (not antibodies). If I take part then I will have the traditional swab test and the new saliva test. They will share the swab test results with me but not the saliva ones, because the saliva one isnt approved yet. It will be the results of this study that contribute to the decision of whether to approve it for use in a way that meant in future the results would then be 'official' and deemed fit to share with the people being tested.

 

[sovereignb]

There have been reports of that, yeah. e.g.

People pooing on beaches as public toilets remain shut

Dogs are said to have been rolling in human faeces and even eating it

www.somersetlive.co.uk

FFS. Ive been known to shit in a bag out of desperation, but id never think not to bin it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There are multiple studies. Some of them have not scaled up in the ways first imagined though, and much of the government emphasis seems to have shifted to the NHS staff and care worker antibody tests. I suspect they have some operational plans for autumn-winter that require such data.

As for other antibody studies, here are two other examples:

First the disappointing one. Antibody testing is supposed to be part of the ONS pilot survey into household infections. But I think the blood test component of this has stalled, that side of the data can go a long time without an update, they barely mention it in their weekly narrative these days, and the numbers involved have been pathetic so far. For exampe this is from a spreadhseet of the data from their latest report.

View attachment 219554
(Weekly report is at Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot - Office for National Statistics )

By far the most promising UK antibody stuff, in terms of the data actually being published for the public on a regular basis, is the Public Health England one that makes use of people who are donating blood for the usual non-pandemic reasons.

Sero-surveillance of COVID-19

www.gov.uk

View attachment 219555

Many thanks. I hope they keep updating that. I'll be interested to see to what extent they converge on similar figures. I would guess the London figure hasn't gone up much since week 18, but that others will have.

 

[ice-is-forming]

Some people seem to be giving it their best shot though

Mods n rockers bank holiday tradition?

 

[ruffneck23]

I went to visit a friend in Liverpool last night , he lives in Cheapside bang in the middle of the city centre , we went to go and get a takeaway, and the city was packed , down by pier head there were thousands of people ,no social distancing , fireworks. , I didn’t see any trouble but wanted to get out of there as quickly as possible, it was surreal..
I think I will have to self isolate now , and hope there isn’t massive rise in cases in the city

 

[two sheds]

That was 30-years unusual though because of the league win. Agreed, hope there's no rise in cases.

 

[flypanam]

Increase in school cases as reported here

Suspected covid-19 outbreaks in schools almost doubles

The number of suspected coronavirus outbreaks in schools almost doubled last week, new Public Health England figures show. PHE's weekly COVID-19 surveillance report, published today, shows the number of "acute respiratory outbreaks" in schools rose from 24 to 44 - 16 more outbreaks than were...

schoolsweek.co.uk

 

[treelover]

@twosheds

Why won't there be?, they were all ages, the lock down is over, I suspect the Govt are happy now with emergent herd immunity.

 

[maomao]

Increase in school cases as reported here

Suspected covid-19 outbreaks in schools almost doubles

The number of suspected coronavirus outbreaks in schools almost doubled last week, new Public Health England figures show. PHE's weekly COVID-19 surveillance report, published today, shows the number of "acute respiratory outbreaks" in schools rose from 24 to 44 - 16 more outbreaks than were...

schoolsweek.co.uk

There's 32,000 schools in the country so that's about 0.14% of schools. Though that's with social distancing, bubbles of 10-12 kids, not all year groups back and low participation in the year groups that are back.

 

[two sheds]

@twosheds

Why won't there be?, they were all ages, the lock down is over, I suspect the Govt are happy now with emergent herd immunity.

Yes most likely will. I was just saying why they were out there which was missing from the post, and agreed with ruffneck's sentiment because I didn't want to imply criticism of what they'd said. And I like scousers.

 

[Doodler]

People have been shitting in the sand?????

That's what people take windbreakers along for, to afford privacy while their pants are down. It's certainly not to block the cooling breeze on a hot day.

 

[andysays]

Applies to individual results going back to the person, they will still use that data for research.

I'm assuming there were several reasons why the antibody side of things in the ONS survey you are part of has not scaled up well yet. They might have struggled to get enough capacity regarding nurses coming to homes to take the blood samples. There could be issues with the Oxford Uni side of things where the samples are being analysed. I'll keep an eye on it to see if this improves in the published data at some point.

Similar story with a research study I've just been asked to participate in. Its the one where they are evaluating a simple saliva-based test for determining who is currently infected (not antibodies). If I take part then I will have the traditional swab test and the new saliva test. They will share the swab test results with me but not the saliva ones, because the saliva one isnt approved yet. It will be the results of this study that contribute to the decision of whether to approve it for use in a way that meant in future the results would then be 'official' and deemed fit to share with the people being tested.

I've also been asked to take part in a survey, run by UCL.

There's info about it here, but it looks like they've selected addresses to invite. Involves the whole household, so my wife and I need to decide together if we want to take part

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Sunday June 28 2020, 12.01am, The Sunday Times:

The government is preparing to impose the first local lockdown within days following a surge in coronavirus cases in Leicester, according to senior government sources.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has been examining the legislation required for the shutdown after it was revealed there have been 658 coronavirus cases in the Leicester area in the fortnight to June 16.

A source close to Hancock said he is “quite worried” and is considering “all options” for how to respond to the spike in cases, including imposing a localised lockdown.

Hancock has been receiving daily reports from Leicester after he sent in a mobile testing unit to help manage the outbreak last week.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Picked up by the Metro too.

A surge in coronavirus cases in Leicester could see the first local lockdown enforced within days.

Dozens of patients have been admitted to hospital, sparking emergency crisis plans for the area.

There were reportedly new infections at a Sainsbury’s and a sandwich factory, and five schools have now been shut.

Leicester set to become UK’s first local lockdown after surge in cases

Dozens of patients have been admitted to hospital, sparking emergency crisis plans for the area.

metro.co.uk

 

[Mr.Bishie]

I suspect Leicester won’t be the only place in the UK facing a ‘local lockdown’ - will be interesting to see how it’s handled/policed etc

 

[elbows]

It gets a bit of a mention in a story about not going back to austerity.

Meanwhile, Leicester East MP Claudia Webbe is calling for a local lockdown amid concerns of a spike in cases locally. She describes a "perfect storm" of high poverty, higher numbers of positive tests and higher ethnic diversity in the area.

Leicester's mayor Sir Peter Soulsby said the city has been given latest government data which should show which areas - if any - are being "adversely affected" by the virus. Lockdown measures might then have to be introduced, he added.

The Department of Health said it was supporting the local council and four mobile testing sites have been set up there.

Coronavirus: PM 'will not return to austerity of 10 years ago'

Boris Johnson is to set out his plans for a post-lockdown economic recovery in a speech next week.

www.bbc.co.uk

I suppose I should point out that Nuneaton is not all that far away from Leicester and I've been talking about the hospital outbreak here for a while. And although the situation with Nuneaton has been largely driven by the hospital outbreak, 35% of cases were said to be from the community. There was also a suggestion that a bunch of the cases at the hospital were not from Nuneaton itself, eg from Hinckley which is Nuneatons neighbour across the county border in Leicestershire. But I dont have data to support or refute that bit.

 

[elbows]

And another BBC story has appeared:

Coronavirus: Leicester 'could be locked down' says home secretary

Priti Patel says it is "correct" the government is considering the move after a rise in cases.

www.bbc.co.uk

About 25% of Leicester's 2,494 confirmed Covid-19 cases were reported in the two weeks before 16 June.

Mayor Sir Peter Soulsby said there was "no immediate prospect" of a lockdown.

Plays into the shameful local data and information situation which I've been moaning about for weeks.

"After many weeks of asking, we now have that data and we are analysing it over this weekend, and hopefully early next week we will know whether we have a problem and if we have, where it is."

It says it didn't get the data from the first fortnight of June until Thursday, so only this weekend has it been able to plot where the Covid-19 cases are.

The data also doesn't give an ethnicity breakdown which the city mayor, Sir Peter Soulsby, says would be vital in helping understand which parts of the community are being affected by the virus. He's asked the Health Secretary to give them that data.

It will know soon if it needs a localised lockdown to isolate the virus. It's all about the data... who has the coronavirus and who has been at risk of catching it.

 

[weepiper]

Meanwhile:

Coronavirus: Expert says Scotland 'could be Covid-free by end of summer' - BBC News

Prof Devi Sridhar says the country could eliminate the coronavirus if the decline in new cases continues.

www.bbc.co.uk