Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[DaveCinzano]

It's a shitshow down this end. The local Trusts were (internally) warning about the implications of weakened lockdown combined with attrition/fatigue and the temptation of a very warm Bank Holiday weekend.

From Friday:

...Weston General Hospital is currently taking care of a high number of COVID-19 patients. There was speculation that there may be a link between this high number and the crowds beginning to gather on the local beach. It serves as a reminder of how quickly the disease can spread and underlines the importance of our preparations for a potential 'second wave'.

Then on Tuesday:

Due to the situation at Weston General Hospital, where the hospital has closed to admissions due to a high number of COVID-19 cases, staff are reminded that they should not be working across teams, wherever possible in North Somerset. If you work in the North Somerset locality you should not work in any other locality within the Trust. If you have used any of the hot-desking facilities at XXXXX since 5th May you should get yourself tested. Please continue to follow Infection Prevention Control (IPC) guidelines at all times, including social distancing, cleaning desks after use and washing hands. We are arranging for our office spaces where staff have been tested to be deep cleaned as a precaution.

Note that this is from a different Trust to the one running WGH, yet it is having to quarantine its own staff in that county from those in other areas due to a third party breakdown in the curtailment measures.

Coronavirus: Nearly half of staff treating COVID-19 patients at Weston General Hospital test positive

All staff at the hospital are being tested after a large percentage of workers became infected.

news.sky.com

Asymptomatic staff test Covid-19 positive at Somerset hospital

Unions call for answers after admissions stopped at Weston general hospital to halt the spread of the virus

www.theguardian.com

 

[Mation]

The way you write doesn't come across as thinking aloud, whether that's intentional or not.

I disagree, and want to hear what SheilaNaGig thinks on this, whenever they feel like saying

 

[zahir]

Warning to expect a second wave from David Hunter, a professor of epidemiology at Oxford.

The coronavirus infection rate is still too high. There will probably be a second wave | David Hunter

Test and tracing is launching today but it will need to be massively stepped up to have an impact, says David Hunter, professor of epidemiology at the University of Oxford

www.theguardian.com

Stabilising the epidemic only buys time to find an effective treatment or vaccine. Perhaps the warmer temperatures will help, if we responsibly socially distance outdoors while the epidemic rumbles on. But when the colder weather pushes us indoors, without a vaccine, and unless contact tracing is stepped up, there will be a second wave: the epidemic will resurge. Not because it had to, but because we did not push the virus closer to extinction, we did not plan properly for the rebound, and thus gave the virus a second lease of life. And all of this will guarantee more Covid-19 deaths in the UK.

 

[Teaboy]

If I had a pound for every time someone on this thread said something like 'second wave is coming' or similar. Its like we're seeking out every slight twitch in a graph or photo of a crowded park / beach as proof.

I'm not saying it won't come but its almost getting to the point where we seem to be willing it, some sort of justification why eternal lockdown is the only solution. I get people are anxious but we cannot live in some sort of lockdown limbo forever, the virus isn't going anywhere and will be a part of our lives for the foreseeable future. Globally things are moving, and whether we like it or not this is happening.

Gah, sorry. I've not had my coffee yet.

 

[LDC]

New published FT data, highest excess death rate in the world.

Thread by @ChrisGiles_ on Thread Reader App

Thread by @ChrisGiles_: Sufficient data worldwide now exists to conclude that, to date, the UK has the highest rate of excess deaths in the Coronavirus pandemic in the world Free to read article with @jburnmurdoch ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Lurdan]

Just about to post the same link :

UK suffers highest death rate from coronavirus | Free to read | Financial Times

The UK has suffered the highest rate of deaths from the coronavirus pandemic among countries that produce comparable data, according to excess mortality figures.

The UK has registered 59,537 more deaths than usual since the week ending March 20, indicating that the virus has directly or indirectly killed 891 people per million.

At this stage of the pandemic, that is a higher rate of death than in any country for which high-quality data exist. The absolute number of excess deaths in the UK is also the highest in Europe, and second only to the US in global terms, according to data collected by the Financial Times.

The country fares no better on another measure: the percentage increase in deaths compared with normal levels, where the UK once again is the worst hit in Europe and behind only Peru internationally.

(...) A UK government spokesperson said it was “wrong and premature to be drawing conclusions at this stage” and that excess deaths should be adjusted for age.

(...) The FT analysis shows that the UK's excess deaths figure remains the highest whether younger people are excluded or the analysis is limited to pensioners.

(...) Excess deaths is internationally recognised as the best way to compare countries’ performance in handling infectious diseases. Chris Whitty, the UK’s chief medical officer, called excess deaths “the key metric”.

(...) Excess mortality is calculated by counting everyone who has died in a country and subtracting the average number of people who passed away over the same period in the past five years.

It therefore tallies the number of people who died either directly from Covid-19 or indirectly, for example if they were unable or unwilling to seek treatment in hospital, and does not reflect different testing regimes for the virus in different countries.

 

[LDC]

Many of them due to late lockdown. An unknown number probably would have been avoidable with other better measures (PPE etc.) and if it hadn't happened on top of a healthcare system fucked by capitalism.

And it's far from over.

Blood on their fucking hands.

 

[Spandex]

If I had a pound for every time someone on this thread said something like 'second wave is coming' or similar. Its like we're seeking out every slight twitch in a graph or photo of a crowded park / beach as proof.

I'm not saying it won't come but its almost getting to the point where we seem to be willing it, some sort of justification why eternal lockdown is the only solution. I get people are anxious but we cannot live in some sort of lockdown limbo forever, the virus isn't going anywhere and will be a part of our lives for the foreseeable future. Globally things are moving, and whether we like it or not this is happening.

Gah, sorry. I've not had my coffee yet.

I don't think anyone really wants eternal lockdown or a second wave to sweep the country. I suspect the attitude you see is an understandable expectation that our clown car to hell government will fuck up lifting the lockdown, perhaps mixed with some secret dark hope that the government does fuck it up so that they loose all credibility once and for all.

 

[kalidarkone]

It's a shitshow down this end. The local Trusts were (internally) warning about the implications of weakened lockdown combined with attrition/fatigue and the temptation of a very warm Bank Holiday weekend.

From Friday:



Then on Tuesday:



Note that this is from a different Trust to the one running WGH, yet it is having to quarantine its own staff in that county from those in other areas due to a third party breakdown in the curtailment measures.

Coronavirus: Nearly half of staff treating COVID-19 patients at Weston General Hospital test positive

All staff at the hospital are being tested after a large percentage of workers became infected.

news.sky.com

Asymptomatic staff test Covid-19 positive at Somerset hospital

Unions call for answers after admissions stopped at Weston general hospital to halt the spread of the virus

www.theguardian.com

I posted some of the above in the south west forum.
Shit show is right. Check the live interview with the boss Oldfield-he is a mess and sound like the most basic of precautions were not carried out.

I'm hoping all NHS staff are tested now given so many were asymptomatic.

 

[LDC]

I deleted this from my last post until I was sure of the maths.

It's 1 in every 1,000 people dead in the UK isn't it?

 

[quimcunx]

Just about to post the same link :

UK suffers highest death rate from coronavirus | Free to read | Financial Times

On the assumption that the FT was previously a cheerleader for the tories and austerity and critical of labour lavish spending etc maybe now would be a good time for them to apologise for the blood on their own hands.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

It's 1 in every 1,000 people dead in the UK isn't it?

Roughly, yes. UK population estimate is 68 million.

 

[treelover]

I was on about Clifford Stott. I did wonder if there was some relation between the two though. The three I mentioned form a tight little group that has not gone without notice or comment amongst their erstwhile lefty associates, for other possibly less useful work primarily...

Reicher was excellent last night, I think on Newsnight.

 

[kabbes]

If I had a pound for every time someone on this thread said something like 'second wave is coming' or similar. Its like we're seeking out every slight twitch in a graph or photo of a crowded park / beach as proof.

I'm not saying it won't come but its almost getting to the point where we seem to be willing it, some sort of justification why eternal lockdown is the only solution. I get people are anxious but we cannot live in some sort of lockdown limbo forever, the virus isn't going anywhere and will be a part of our lives for the foreseeable future. Globally things are moving, and whether we like it or not this is happening.

Gah, sorry. I've not had my coffee yet.

I saw some survey that showed UK citizens have the highest rating of all countries for “Fear of Going Out”. I suspect it is because our government has proved itself utterly unreliable, untrustworthy and clueless. So we can’t trust in the state to sort it out and are left to protect ourselves at an individual level

 

[killer b]

I saw some survey that showed UK citizens have the highest rating of all countries for “Fear of Going Out”. I suspect it is because our government has proved itself utterly unreliable, untrustworthy and clueless. So we can’t trust in the state to sort it out and are left to protect ourselves at an individual level

I think it's partly down to the popularity of posting photographs of some people on a beach / in a park with 'second wave coming, yo' or similar on facebook tbh

 

[Sue]

I'm not saying it won't come but its almost getting to the point where we seem to be willing it, some sort of justification why eternal lockdown is the only solution. I get people are anxious but we cannot live in some sort of lockdown limbo forever, the virus isn't going anywhere and will be a part of our lives for the foreseeable future. Globally things are moving, and whether we like it or not this is happening.

I don't think anyone wants to 'live in some sort of lockdown limbo forever' but given how badly the Government's dealt with this so far, it's not surprising that people are fearful. And for those at increased risk, that fear is obviously even greater.

 

[frogwoman]

I've seen memes like that from overseas friends in Spain, Sweden etc too tbh. Don't think you can blame memes for all of it although it does have an effect.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I do not want to remain in lockdown forever - even this not-actually-ever-a-lockdown state - and neither do I want a second wave.

I'm just very reluctant to leave the house until as late a time as possible. I don't know how many people have reverted to the same behaviour as before or have stopped caring about C19 as a threat but afaic I'm going nowhere until my job makes me, and Mrs SI is going shopping three times a week and that's all. She says adherence to social distancing is now about 50/50

 

[Sue]

I do not want to remain in lockdown forever - even this not-actually-ever-a-lockdown state - and neither do I want a second wave.

I'm just very reluctant to leave the house until as late a time as possible. I don't know how many people have reverted to the same behaviour as before or have stopped caring about C19 as a threat but afaic I'm going nowhere until my job makes me, and Mrs SI is going shopping three times a week and that's all. She says adherence to social distancing is now about 50/50

This. And I think that's a reasonable position to take. Some people at my work have gone back into the office today -- we've all been working from home since the week before lockdown and to me this seems like a very bad idea -- and while it's voluntary at the moment, I wonder how long that'll be the case.

 

[LDC]

I do not want to remain in lockdown forever - even this not-actually-ever-a-lockdown state - and neither do I want a second wave.

I'm just very reluctant to leave the house until as late a time as possible. I don't know how many people have reverted to the same behaviour as before or have stopped caring about C19 as a threat but afaic I'm going nowhere until my job makes me, and Mrs SI is going shopping three times a week and that's all. She says adherence to social distancing is now about 50/50

Yeah, I've not changed anything much since things officially eased slightly (and unofficially loads). I'm a bit the same, I can't see me changing much for a while yet. I've been working through it (NHS clinical) although only part time. The only thing I'll do different is probably drive somewhere 30 minutes or so for a walk or swim in the country.

 

[two sheds]

I think 'fear' of leaving the house is the wrong word, for me at least. I don't go out but I'm hardly afraid - I don't break out into a cold sweat or anything. Yes I look round for people coming but it's in the same way I normally look round to keep the dog out of harm's way.

 

[Steel Icarus]

I think 'fear' of leaving the house is the wrong word, for me at least. I don't go out but I'm hardly afraid - I don't break out into a cold sweat or anything. Yes I look round for people coming but it's in the same way I normally look round to keep the dog out of harm's way.

Yes, when I take the dogs out at 8-ish anyone doing similar has crossed well in advance, or I have. But a couple of days ago three kids on bikes came flying out of a drive and one went to stroke one of my dogs and I was like "Whoah, stay over there mate".

Kids are playing out together again out front, it's nice for them, but honestly. This ain't over.

 

[elbows]

Anyone know where I can read the full letter from the travel industry?

MPs call for urgent action to save aviation jobs

A cross-party group adds its voice to concerns about the government's plan to quarantine all arrivals.

www.bbc.co.uk

I dont think them criticising the governments past failings in strong terms is going to make me forgive the stance the industry is now taking:

Quite simply it is time to switch the emphasis from protection to economic recovery before it is too late.

 

[LDC]

Here you go elbows

"Dear Priti,

You know it and I know it, at the end of the day we both actually care about money more than people.

So scrap the quarantine or we'll be fucked, and then we'll stop voting for you, so then you'll be fucked.

Yours, for capital over lives foreva,

The travel industry X."

 

[Teaboy]

I don't think anyone wants to 'live in some sort of lockdown limbo forever' but given how badly the Government's dealt with this so far, it's not surprising that people are fearful. And for those at increased risk, that fear is obviously even greater.

I do not want to remain in lockdown forever - even this not-actually-ever-a-lockdown state - and neither do I want a second wave.

I'm just very reluctant to leave the house until as late a time as possible. I don't know how many people have reverted to the same behaviour as before or have stopped caring about C19 as a threat but afaic I'm going nowhere until my job makes me, and Mrs SI is going shopping three times a week and that's all. She says adherence to social distancing is now about 50/50

Yeah, I do understand this and I did say I understand why people are anxious. I'm just coming from the angle that there is a lot of posts on this thread basically saying the same thing which is 'second wave and more mass death coming' when actually the data at the moment doesn't support it. We are seeking out things that make us frightened and in doing so making each other more frightened.

The graphs are going to go up and down, the virus is with us to stay* just as car accidents are and cancer is. Its scary and horrible but that is how I'm increasingly seeing it.




* Not withstanding a vaccine / treatment but we can't rely on that.

 

[kalidarkone]

I saw some survey that showed UK citizens have the highest rating of all countries for “Fear of Going Out”. I suspect it is because our government has proved itself utterly unreliable, untrustworthy and clueless. So we can’t trust in the state to sort it out and are left to protect ourselves at an individual level

Nail on head.

 

[quimcunx]

It just seems to me that protecting people would have been/is the best way to protect the economy too. They are not opposing goals but that is how they have been/are being treated, here at least. A sick or isolating workforce isn't good for the economy. Sick or dead customers isn't either. Having a longer lockdown because it wasnt done quick enough isn't good for the economy. Lifting it too soon without enough policing of workplaces increases chances of a spike or 2nd wave and lockdown not good for the economy. Having to borrow more money to get up to speed rather than have things in place already isn't good for the economy.

E2a I just hope the current R0 situation is as promising as the models suggest and stays so and that the govt has a better handle than they appear or that enough of us are/are able to keep up sensible distancing etc.

 

[elbows]

I am still trying to forumulate useful thoughts in regards peoples fears about future waves, neverending lockdowns etc.

The risk of subsequent waves is quite real. I think some people are expecting another wave much sooner than one is actually likely, but I cannot have a high degree of confidence when predicting timing of subsequent waves, so I shouldnt push that point too far at the moment.

What I do think people should do is start to forget about lockdown as a monolith that last for many months. When actually what we called lockdown was a whole range of different measures. Modelling predictions and the reality elsewhere (eg Italy, Spain) left most authorities with no choice but to combine all the measures into one very strong response that went on for quite a while. It doesnt have to be that way next time. Especially if we do much better with our timing. I would expect the future of lockdown, eg later this year once the seasons turn, to be more local and much more nuanced. The last resort full on prolonged lockdown that is so fresh in peoples minds still needs to be there as an emergency last resort, but again if our timing is better I would expect that a much shorter and more targeted version will be possible if the going gets tough later in the year.

The new normal is not the old normal, but neither is it supposed to be this lockdown normal that we have lived with in recent months. And I do think its really important for people to try to recharge their psychological batteries during this summer phase of things, rather than just looking for the next doom wave with a sense of imminency in mind. Plus a whole bunch of countries will experience their winters long before us, and that will yield more information about what we might expect from this virus when our autumn and winter comes.

 

[teuchter]

When I read people saying that they are basically going to continue barely leaving the house ... this is quite out of whack with how I am now behaving - I feel that walking or cycling around outside, including relatively busy parks (where it's still feasible to stay 1 or 2m from everyone) is pretty negligible risk. I don't feel entirely comfortable in supermarkets, I wouldn't sit in a pub and for now am still not using trains or buses at all. But leaving the house doesn't in itself feel like a big deal.

I see a lot of people out and about who would appear to be taking a similar approach. Of course, that's a self selecting sample, so I don't really have an idea how many people are really still shutting themselves indoors for everything but essential business. I'm curious though, whether there is an unseen proportion of the population who are pretty fearful about leaving their homes - and how large that proportion is.

I wonder if it differs according to whether you live somewhere urban or suburban/rural. If you look out of the window and see a fair few people out and about, then it doesn't feel weird to be out and about yourself. But maybe if you are in a quiet area, where even in normal times you don't see people walking around, and you are sitting inside watching news reports, does that create an entirely different perception of risk/acceptability?

 

[elbows]

Plus I do have to say that my thoughts struggle to turn seriously to subsequent waves when the first wave isnt over yet. Waves dont end when they peak, I am still looking to see what sort of levels thigs fall to as this first wave continues its downwards path.

For example, despite comments I made the other day about the extent to which the virus has been locked down, its only been days since the number og COVID-19 cases in UK hospitals fell below 10,000. There are still somewhere around 500 people per day being admitted to hospital in England with Covid-19, and Scotlands COVID-19 'ambulance to hospital' numbers have been fluctuating around 200 in recent times.