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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Anyone who is currently dealing with transfer from DLA to PIP, claimants are recieving text saying all transfers are suspended for the rest of this year & DWP will contact when they are able to start again. I just lost hundreds, a month with my transfer, damn!


so not so hostile at moment, though worth getting more sources for above.
 
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I think the focus on numbers meeting in parks is a bit of a red herring. Workplaces and public transport seem the real dangers to me, as they are indoors in confined spaces where you often can't socially distance. I think the reason we see the numbers not really dropping now is they never really stopped workplaces and a few weeks ago they actively encouraged them. It's not about whether or not you have a few extra people at your picnic.
 
Brainaddict said:
I think the focus on numbers meeting in parks is a bit of a red herring. Workplaces and public transport seem the real dangers to me, as they are indoors in confined spaces where you often can't socially distance. I think the reason we see the numbers not really dropping now is they never really stopped workplaces and a few weeks ago they actively encouraged them. It's not about whether or not you have a few extra people at your picnic.
Click to expand...

I kind of agree, although I'd be interested to see the behavioural stuff that models how slackening social stuff that has a low risk increases the likelihood of attitudes slipping in areas where infection risk is higher.
 
I went on a long walk round central London today and it really did bring home that despite all the worries about a second wave and increased social interaction it really is astonishing to see the totality of the lockdown in the city centre. Outside of construction there didn't seem to be anyone working, almost everywhere except food shops was closed with the exception of the odd Starbucks and independent cafs, but even most of them were shut. It looked like a few had attempted to re-open, with signs on the windows and markings outside but it probably wasn't worth it and they closed. There were a few people bimbling about, but I suspect most were local residents, and barely anyone who looked like they might be a tourist/visitor. I've walked round London on Christmas Day and it was much busier, sitting in Leicester Square felt like sitting in the square of some sleepy provincial town. It was a huge contrast to round here, where it feels pretty much back to normal on the streets except the charity shops and pubs are shut and the food places are only doing take outs.

I also got the tube back, which I know makes me a bad person, but it was only a ten minute trip and it looked really quiet. And it was, 3 or 4 people per carriages, stations empty and this was at just gone 6pm. I've been the first to moan about people having to go to work and non essential production remaining open, but the lockdown must have made a huge impact on infection rates, and I presume the situation is the same in other large cities.

It felt strange walking round Piccadilly Circus and places like that, like a snapshot in time before everything changes. It's hard to believe that most of the businesses, even the bigger ones, will survive the collapse of tourism which even in the best possible case scenario is uinlikely to be back to what it was for a couple of years, if ever. It was strange to see all the new developments with glossy signs promising new retail experiences coming soon that will now never come. I suspect even the big theatres and cinemas could be in trouble, as well as Oxford Street and other big retail spaces. Can Covent Garden or Camden Market survive without tourists for a couple of years? I guess some of the biggest chain stores might have the resources to sit it out, but will they even want to risk it when High Streets were dying everywhere even before the pandemic? Lots and lots of people are going to lose their jobs if they haven't done already.

On the other hand, seeing the rampant gentrification and tourist focussed Disneyfication of places like Soho and Camden about to just crumble away clearly means space is going to open up like never before for radical changes in large cities whose economies depended on outside visitors and tourists. It's hard to even imagine what that will look like, and it feels foolish to make predictions. But (and sorry to go on, and I know its a bit off topic) I think it's easy to think about the new normal and think it will be a bit like it was before except with more hand washing, working from home and general paranoia. But seeing the city centre today made me think the economic and by extention the political consequences of this are going to be unprecedented. The future is really not going to be anything like we thought it was. And I don't know whether that fills me with hope or terror.
 
smokedout why do you think tourism won’t resume in the next year or so, is it that you think people will just choose not to come here or is it something else more structural ?
 
smokedout said:
I went on a long walk round central London today and it really did bring home that despite all the worries about a second wave and increased social interaction it really is astonishing to see the totality of the lockdown in the city centre. Outside of construction there didn't seem to be anyone working, almost everywhere except food shops was closed with the exception of the odd Starbucks and independent cafs, but even most of them were shut. It looked like a few had attempted to re-open, with signs on the windows and markings outside but it probably wasn't worth it and they closed. There were a few people bimbling about, but I suspect most were local residents, and barely anyone who looked like they might be a tourist/visitor. I've walked round London on Christmas Day and it was much busier, sitting in Leicester Square felt like sitting in the square of some sleepy provincial town. It was a huge contrast to round here, where it feels pretty much back to normal on the streets except the charity shops and pubs are shut and the food places are only doing take outs.

I also got the tube back, which I know makes me a bad person, but it was only a ten minute trip and it looked really quiet. And it was, 3 or 4 people per carriages, stations empty and this was at just gone 6pm. I've been the first to moan about people having to go to work and non essential production remaining open, but the lockdown must have made a huge impact on infection rates, and I presume the situation is the same in other large cities.

It felt strange walking round Piccadilly Circus and places like that, like a snapshot in time before everything changes. It's hard to believe that most of the businesses, even the bigger ones, will survive the collapse of tourism which even in the best possible case scenario is uinlikely to be back to what it was for a couple of years, if ever. It was strange to see all the new developments with glossy signs promising new retail experiences coming soon that will now never come. I suspect even the big theatres and cinemas could be in trouble, as well as Oxford Street and other big retail spaces. Can Covent Garden or Camden Market survive without tourists for a couple of years? I guess some of the biggest chain stores might have the resources to sit it out, but will they even want to risk it when High Streets were dying everywhere even before the pandemic? Lots and lots of people are going to lose their jobs if they haven't done already.

On the other hand, seeing the rampant gentrification and tourist focussed Disneyfication of places like Soho and Camden about to just crumble away clearly means space is going to open up like never before for radical changes in large cities whose economies depended on outside visitors and tourists. It's hard to even imagine what that will look like, and it feels foolish to make predictions. But (and sorry to go on, and I know its a bit off topic) I think it's easy to think about the new normal and think it will be a bit like it was before except with more hand washing, working from home and general paranoia. But seeing the city centre today made me think the economic and by extention the political consequences of this are going to be unprecedented. The future is really not going to be anything like we thought it was. And I don't know whether that fills me with hope or terror.
Click to expand...
I saw a piece in the ft a while back about five big city law firms moving offices atm. One obvious result of the virus is many people who previously worked in the City won't any more and the price of office space there and elsewhere in London if not further afield is likely to decline. While this might lead to an amazing growth of radical enterprises and a squatting movement in empty offices, it might equally lead to a wave of gentrification the likes of which we've never seen before. Time will tell.
 
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bimble said:
smokedout why do you think tourism won’t resume in the next year or so, is it that you think people will just choose not to come here or is it something else more structural ?
Click to expand...

A bit of both I think, and it's not just tourism really but the numbers of people travelling to capital and other large cities for all kinds of reasons. Even in the absolutely most positive scenarios - no second wave and the virus fades away or we get a vaccine before the end of the year- I think it's fair to say this year will be a write off tourist wise, with perhaps the exception of some internal tourism but London's economy needs a lot more than that. I doubt there are many tourist based businesses that will be able to hold on for a year of near or perhaps total collapse in tourism.

It also looks like international students, who are big spenders, may not be coming in September, and neither might many UK based students which will impact I guess at least for the next academic year. I think business travel will remain low, with companies seeing the cost benefits of online conferences and meetings, and there is likely to be some shift to more people working from home reducing the number of commuters. It's also unlikely the virus will disappear or be brought under control at the same time everywhere so some quarantine restrictions may have to stay in force from some regions. And even if coronavirus does goes away I expect there will be a general level of anxiety about it, with scare stories and localised flare ups, so I think it will take a while for confidence to come back in international travel, which won't be helped if the UK ends up with one of the highest rates of death. I think this will also impact on things like theatres, night clubs and other amenities which draw people to London.

But on top of all that is the spectre of a global recession/depression that would be pretty devasting to tourism and international travel even without the lingering threat of the virus.
 
It's been an hour since the Thursday night clap has ended and there are still about a dozen people stood in the middle of the road chatting away (including my wife and youngest daughter). They're all socially distant with more than 2 metres between them but its a sign that the lockdown is dying naturally, government advice or otherwise
The couple from next door but one have even brought glasses of wine with them.
The Thursday night clap is now a key part of the social fabric of this close. It will most likely evolve into something else but I can't see it ending.
The one NHS worker in the street (Son's girlfriend) does however point out she would rather have a payrise than a regular round of applause.
 
smokedout said:
I went on a long walk round central London today and it really did bring home that despite all the worries about a second wave and increased social interaction it really is astonishing to see the totality of the lockdown in the city centre. Outside of construction there didn't seem to be anyone working, almost everywhere except food shops was closed with the exception of the odd Starbucks and independent cafs, but even most of them were shut. It looked like a few had attempted to re-open, with signs on the windows and markings outside but it probably wasn't worth it and they closed. There were a few people bimbling about, but I suspect most were local residents, and barely anyone who looked like they might be a tourist/visitor. I've walked round London on Christmas Day and it was much busier, sitting in Leicester Square felt like sitting in the square of some sleepy provincial town. It was a huge contrast to round here, where it feels pretty much back to normal on the streets except the charity shops and pubs are shut and the food places are only doing take outs.

I also got the tube back, which I know makes me a bad person, but it was only a ten minute trip and it looked really quiet. And it was, 3 or 4 people per carriages, stations empty and this was at just gone 6pm. I've been the first to moan about people having to go to work and non essential production remaining open, but the lockdown must have made a huge impact on infection rates, and I presume the situation is the same in other large cities.

It felt strange walking round Piccadilly Circus and places like that, like a snapshot in time before everything changes. It's hard to believe that most of the businesses, even the bigger ones, will survive the collapse of tourism which even in the best possible case scenario is uinlikely to be back to what it was for a couple of years, if ever. It was strange to see all the new developments with glossy signs promising new retail experiences coming soon that will now never come. I suspect even the big theatres and cinemas could be in trouble, as well as Oxford Street and other big retail spaces. Can Covent Garden or Camden Market survive without tourists for a couple of years? I guess some of the biggest chain stores might have the resources to sit it out, but will they even want to risk it when High Streets were dying everywhere even before the pandemic? Lots and lots of people are going to lose their jobs if they haven't done already.

On the other hand, seeing the rampant gentrification and tourist focussed Disneyfication of places like Soho and Camden about to just crumble away clearly means space is going to open up like never before for radical changes in large cities whose economies depended on outside visitors and tourists. It's hard to even imagine what that will look like, and it feels foolish to make predictions. But (and sorry to go on, and I know its a bit off topic) I think it's easy to think about the new normal and think it will be a bit like it was before except with more hand washing, working from home and general paranoia. But seeing the city centre today made me think the economic and by extention the political consequences of this are going to be unprecedented. The future is really not going to be anything like we thought it was. And I don't know whether that fills me with hope or terror.
Click to expand...
If people other than jet-setters and hedge fund manages could actually afford living in Central London, it would not be deserted and quiet.
 
little_legs said:
We were in an online work meeting this morning, our workmate's brother is working on the end of life ward, he said on Tuesday they've had to call police to that ward twice because grieving relatives turned up to pay their respects despite being told this wasn’t allowed under the lockdown rules. First time they’ve had to do this to get people to leave.
Click to expand...

I wonder how much would be lost by allowing limited visits to those dying at this point. And I wonder if it could have been possible all along if proper PPE had been available for all that needed it.
 
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UK has second highest deathrate, after Spain
www.ft.com

UK suffers second-highest death rate from coronavirus | Free to read

FT analysis of data from 19 countries finds Britain suffering heavy toll from pandemic
www.ft.com www.ft.com

The UK has registered 59,537 more deaths than usual since the week ending March 20, indicating that the virus has directly or indirectly killed 891 people per million. Until Thursday, the UK had a higher rate of death than in any country for which high-quality data exist. However, Spain made a revision to its mortality estimates, adding 12,000 to its toll of excess deaths from coronavirus in a one-off adjustment to 43,000. This increased its death rate to 921 per million. The absolute number of excess deaths in the UK is the highest in Europe, and second only to the US in global terms, according to data collected by the Financial Times.
 
Have I missed something about today being (supposedly?) the LAST weekly Thursday night 'applause for carers'?? :confused:

I'm convinced I recently saw some reference to that, but ..... am I wrong?
 
bimble said:
Why would they do this ? Is it that they thought deaths in care homes would be less visible ?
Click to expand...

If the press had written more by now about the NHS England plan for a 'reverse triage' into care homes, which was mentioned in the report into operation Cygnus from some years ago which the Guardian got hold of, then there would probably be less mystery about this stuff by now.

There were other signs a while ago too, although I did not pick up on this angle at the time I do remember the story. Which was that some of the first billions in new funding announced by this government were to deal with 'bed blocking'. Only have to read between the lines slightly to imagine that it was also part of these 'reverse triage' plans, plans which did the very opposite of shielding our care homes.

An example of a story about the bed blocking billions in funding, from March 19th:

www.theguardian.com

£2.9bn provided to free up hospital beds for coronavirus patients

Local authorities and NHS will share fund to get recovering elderly and vulnerable patients into social care
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
elbows said:
I've had a couple of half-arsed stabs at looking at things more locally from now on, as the situation evolves to the point that the individual epidemics and outbreaks stand out more, and as things hopefully get tackled on that level.

Well here is the BBCs equivalent, mostly at the regional levels but there are some interesting graphs and nods to the local future. There is plenty more to the story beyond the headline they went with.

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: R number 'very similar' across UK

Scientists say there are no significant regional differences in coronavirus rates across the UK.
www.bbc.co.uk
Click to expand...
Andy Burnham posted this data up 30 mins ago. Data published by CMMID

1590704313196.png
 
This whole thing has made me realise that I kind of live in a socialist/anarchist bubble where we discuss data that is dredged up for us all to argue about here for the most part or with similarly minded IRL friends/comrades and that if the govt say "it's ok to go back to work now" or "it's ok to meet up with 6 other people" it isn't actually everyone who is thinking "not fucking likely mate" like I do.
 
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