Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[brogdale]

Behind the Telegraph £wall, so no link, but...unsurprisingly Hancock was talking bollocks...

 

[gentlegreen]

Quelle surprise ...

 

[Pickman's model]

We had a family funeral last week, my partner's mum. It was my partner, his dad, his sister and her children and her partner. There was an unexpected friend of his dad. I stayed home with my younger children and watched it on video stream. It was awful, but done safely. It was safe for his dad. We'll have a memorial later.

All best wishes to you and Blagsta at this difficult time

 

[SheilaNaGig]

you'd think they'd interpolate if you enter 'no symptoms' on monday and again on saturday.

Yes, but one of the characteristics of coronaviruses generally is that they can be intermittent, so you feel rotten, then okay the next day and think it was a passing thing, go back into the community, then feel poorly again, back and forth. Plenty of people reporting intermittent symptoms with C-19.


NB Some of this is anecdotal, coming from my own observations and from my colleagues. But also from literature, none of which can I now find : the relevant info is swamped by more recent internet stuff around this pandemic. But plenty of peop,e will be able to look to their own personal experience of coronaviruses over the years, when you feel poorly, stay home feel better, go back to work, feel wretched again... That’s not a second cold, that’s the same cold bouncing back.

 

[two sheds]

Yes, but one of the characteristics of coronaviruses generally is that they can be intermittent, so you feel rotten, then okay the next day and think it was a passing thing, go back into the community, then feel poorly again, back and forth. Plenty of people reporting intermittent symptoms with C-19.


NB Some of this is anecdotal, coming from my own observations and from my colleagues. But also from literature, none of which can I now find : the relevant info is swamped by more recent internet stuff around this pandemic. But plenty of peop,e will be able to look to their own personal experience of coronaviruses over the years, when you feel poorly, stay home feel better, go back to work, feel wretched again... That’s not a second cold, that’s the same cold bouncing back.

I was particularly thinking of before you actually get symptoms, but yes that's true once you've had them.

 

[SheilaNaGig]

Quick, wheel out the Queen to keep the growing scandal off the front pages.

i was thinking earlier how the lack of PPE for healthcare workers is analogous to Blair sending ’our boys’ off to die in Iraq without appropriate body armour, but suspect it won’t become the same right-wing talking point.

It was certainly a comparison that was drawn in the news reports I was listening to last week.

 

[Azrael]

And lo, Professor Graham Medley, the Dr. Strangelove who mused about carting the elderly off to Scotland while the epidemic ripped through the poor souls left in England, is sounding off to the Times about trying herd immunity again, complete with a false choice between children's well-being and protecting the vulnerable.

I must thank these unworldly government scientists for continuing to blurt out what politicans would never dare, alongside incriminating themselves in neon letters. Keep it up!

 

[Doodler]

And lo, Professor Graham Medley, the Dr. Strangelove who mused about carting the elderly off to Scotland while the epidemic ripped through the poor souls left in England, is sounding off to the Times about trying herd immunity again, complete with a false choice between children's well-being and protecting the vulnerable.

I must thank these unworldly government scientists for continuing to blurt out what politicans would never dare, alongside incriminating themselves in neon letters. Keep it up!

I read that. He claims lockdown will paint Britain into a corner with no obvious exit except the herd immunity route.

Would it not make more sense to learn from Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong, since their approaches seem to be working, more or less? Lockdown is surely the only way to shrink the total number of infected people by bringing the virus's replication rate below replacement levels (R0 < 1 ). Then you'd have lots of little infection bush fires to run around and deal with, which is probably doable through tracing and quarantining, instead of one huge firestorm.

 

[zahir]

A reminder that planning for failure is long-standing and not just about the current government.

Typically, the media has turned the lack of testing into a political scandal, and the fringe media is luxuriating in ever-more lurid conspiracy theories, but I'm afraid we will have to be content with that reliable old workhorse for an explanation – government (and professional) incompetence.

So far, I have managed to review government pandemic planning documents going back to 2005, such as this and this, both under Labour health secretaries, respectively John Reid and Patricia Hewitt.

Then we had this interesting document in 2006 – still under Labour's Patricia Hewitt – which gave advice to businesses, retailing the "key planning assumption" that, "during a flu pandemic, the government's overall aim will be to encourage people to carry on as normal, as far as possible". When 15 years later, we say the Johnson administration initially attempt the same policy, few would have thought that he shared it with the Blair government.

And since then, we have had an international strategy and a national framework in 2007, framed under Gordon Brown, together with an analysis of the science base for an overarching government strategy, which spanned Blair's and Brown's tenures in office.

This then brings us to the 2011 Preparedness Strategy, brought into being under Cameron's coalition government, as was the 2014 response plan and strategic framework.

A common thread running through all these plans was the limited use of community testing. It is limited to monitoring the first stage of the epidemic to establish when community spread had occurred. There is no provision in any of the plans for an extensive "trace and test" programme. In all cases the government relies for the resolution of the epidemic on the development of a vaccine, using the hospital services to hold down the death rate (mitigation) until it comes available.

In other words, while many different governments have had an input into planning the pandemic response, the short straw has gone to the Johnson administration, which has found that standing back and allowing the casualties to mount - the "bring out your dead" policy, while awaiting the cavalry is not politically tenable.

EU Referendum

eureferendum.com

 

[Azrael]

I read that. He claims lockdown will paint Britain into a corner with no obvious exit except the herd immunity route.

Would it not make more sense to learn from Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong, since their approaches seem to be working, more or less? Lockdown is surely the only way to shrink the total number of infected people by bringing the virus's replication rate below replacement levels (R0 < 1 ). Then you'd have lots of little infection bush fires to run around and deal with, which is probably doable through tracing and quarantining, instead of one huge firestorm.

Yup, even Neil Ferguson of the infamous Imperial paper now accepts massive testing and contact tracing is the answer. (And
admitted in a New Scientist piece a few days back that they didn't plug test-trace-isolate into their models 'cause the government didn't have the necessary kit.) Either Medley's somehow ignorant of it, or prefers letting the virus tear through the population until it burns itself out.

I encourage government scientists to continue to be as frank as possible.

 

[weltweit]

..
Would it not make more sense to learn from Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong, since their approaches seem to be working, more or less?
..

I would add South Korea to that list ..

 

[Doodler]

I would add South Korea to that list ..

Yes definitely, an oversight on my part.

 

[Azrael]

I would add South Korea to that list ..

The go-to example (along with, tentatively, Germany) of getting control of an outbreak. The other countries are certainly where we could be aiming for next, then ultimately, Iceland/New Zealand, if they manage to eradicate Covid domestically (far from guaranteed, but here's hoping).

 

[Red Cat]

All best wishes to you and Blagsta at this difficult time

Thank you Pickman's model. He says thanks to all of you, we both really appreciate your thoughts and wishes.

 

[T & P]

I posted this on the hateful celebrities thread in General, but I thought it was worth posting it here too. What fuckwits some people are...

Broadband engineers threatened due to 5G coronavirus conspiracies

EE suspects telephone mast engulfed by fire in Birmingham was an arson attack as celebrities claim Covid-19 caused by new network

www.theguardian.com

 

[Steel Icarus]

When's Betty's All Together Now speech on?

 

[William of Walworth]

When's Betty's All Together Now speech on?

Sunday at 8 pm, was the last I read about that.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The go-to example (along with, tentatively, Germany) of getting control of an outbreak. The other countries are certainly where we could be aiming for next, then ultimately, Iceland/New Zealand, if they manage to eradicate Covid domestically (far from guaranteed, but here's hoping).

They're slightly different examples, though. South Korea is an example of how to snuff out an outbreak before it spreads. Germany is an example of how to act early to prepare for and control an outbreak after it has spread considerably. Both share the characteristic of extensive testing, of course.

The thing to compare the UK to in terms of how they could have dealt with this really is Germany. South Korea's approach may be for next time, as it requires a change in overall thinking. Meanwhile, the UK and Germany have acted with the same amount of information available at roughly the same time - and at every step, Germany has been way ahead, from the longer term with provision of spare capacity built into their system, to the medium term with decisions being made early to invest in a testing regime and to enact social distancing, to the immediate term, in which, as a result of the first two measures, its health care system is coping, thus minimising deaths. They have an idea of what they are facing, and are facing up to it. They have turned exponential growth in deaths to linear growth very early on along the curve, and they have now flattened out new infections.

Talk last week and the week before was about how far behind Germany is on its curve. The question now has to be 'how far ahead is Germany?' It has decisively changed the shape of its curve compared other countries, while the UK has hurtled along up Italy's curve, or even Spain's curve. Not a single lesson learned.

 

[kabbes]

I wish it were true that we could say that Germany has changed the shape of its curve. It may have done but the data doesn’t yet show it, at least from today’s set of FT curves

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

 

[Azrael]

They're slightly different examples, though. South Korea is an example of how to snuff out an outbreak before it spreads. Germany is an example of how to act early to prepare for and control an outbreak after it has spread considerably. Both share the characteristic of extensive testing, of course.

The thing to compare the UK to in terms of how they could have dealt with this really is Germany. South Korea's approach may be for next time, as it requires a change in overall thinking. Meanwhile, the UK and Germany have acted with the same amount of information available at roughly the same time - and at every step, Germany has been way ahead, from the longer term with provision of spare capacity built into their system, to the medium term with decisions being made early to invest in a testing regime and to enact social distancing, to the immediate term, in which, as a result of the first two measures, its health care system is coping, thus minimising deaths. They have an idea of what they are facing, and are facing up to it. They have turned exponential growth in deaths to linear growth very early on along the curve, and they have now flattened out new infections.

Talk last week and the week before was about how far behind Germany is on its curve. The question now has to be 'how far ahead is Germany?' It has decisively changed the shape of its curve compared other countries, while the UK has hurtled along up Italy's curve, or even Spain's curve. Not a single lesson learned.

South Korea had a bad outbreak thanks to that church. Germany's is undoubtedly worse (probably due to people coming back from Italy, it's been reported that the average age of cases was lower at first), but as you say, they do seem to be getting control of it now. If outbreaks can be halted and reversed, should be possible to have a second chance at employing strategies we missed.

All these comparisons are inexact (especially since S. Korea never had a lockdown). I look at it mostly as finding different ways to implement the fight-with-quarantine approach, whether that's lockdown, contact tracing, mass testing, or a mixture.

 

[Azrael]

I wish it were true that we could say that Germany has changed the shape of its curve. It may have done but the data doesn’t yet show it, at least from today’s set of FT curves

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

There's been promising signs with new cases, but yes, Germany is definitely early days.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I wish it were true that we could say that Germany has changed the shape of its curve. It may have done but the data doesn’t yet show it, at least from today’s set of FT curves

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

It's little, but it is showing. In deaths in the past week, growth has been linear, hence the line curving just at the end. In new cases, there has been no growth in the last week. It has flattened out, also now showing up in the rolling weekly averages, so you would tentatively expect deaths to flatten out over the next week or so. And we have to bear in mind how much more testing is being done in Germany. 50,000 per day, with just over 10 per cent of those testing positive over the past week. Well over a million tests have been carried out now, and they have a much better idea of where it is than, say, us.

 

[weltweit]

I think we should be wearing masks, everyone when outside or with other people.

We are not being told to wear masks or other face coverings because government is worried there are already not enough masks for NHS workers, and if the general population was to wear them - well there wouldn't be enough for NHS frontline workers and the wider population.

 

[magneze]

The virologist that was on BBC News earlier this morning seemed pretty adamant that the relative risk of catching the virus outdoors is low because the 'viral aura' disperses quickly. Indoors is the issue.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The virologist that was on BBC News earlier this morning seemed pretty adamant that the relative risk of catching the virus outdoors is low because the 'viral aura' disperses quickly. Indoors is the issue.

They need to analyse and release the data on contact tracing to show exactly who it is that has caught it from known cases. I saw something from Germany a while back showing that, in their contact tracing, most people contacted hadn't caught it. In large part it was close friends and family rather than colleagues.

There is a danger of paranoia setting in here. You're not going to catch it by just walking past someone on the street. It's a new flu virus, but it's not a magic flu virus.

ETA: There's also a danger of constantly ramping up measures because the figures are getting worse when those figures are the result of what was done (or not done) two weeks ago, not what is being done or not done now.

 

[teqniq]

Wtf?

NHS worker quit when she was stopped from wearing face mask

Tracy Brennan chastised superiors at hospitals trust for making her remove her own mask

www.theguardian.com

 

[Cid]

They need to analyse and release the data on contact tracing to show exactly who it is that has caught it from known cases. I saw something from Germany a while back showing that, in their contact tracing, most people contacted hadn't caught it. In large part it was close friends and family rather than colleagues.

I think elbows mentioned there were some ongoing serological surveys in the UK... Tbh those would probably actually be more helpful than simple mass testing+contact tracing. At least in establishing the way the virus spreads, and - if conducted more widely - potentially in identifying hotspots etc.

There is a danger of paranoia setting in here. You're not going to catch it by just walking past someone on the street.

I think it there was a bit of discussion of this in that Atlantic article that was doing the rounds. <looks up article> Yeah, some tests in Wuhan that only showed limited amounts of virus in the air, even in some relatively crowded locations (by limited, probably not enough to be infectious). Though a runner breathing in your face is probably a bit different. One of the scientists quote in there does say to think of it like avoiding a smoker's breath though, probably on the cautious side, but that's still a fair distance. At least it's not avoid a vaper's vast plumes.

It's a new flu virus, but it's not a magic flu virus.

It's not a new flu virus, c'mon, sort it out.

ETA: There's also a danger of constantly ramping up measures because the figures are getting worse when those figures are the result of what was done (or not done) two weeks ago, not what is being done or not done now.

Yeah, been thinking about this... Some of the measures across Europe do seem to be more reactive and 'look, we're doing more' than actually based in evidence. The only example of long-term, full lockdown we have is China, and it's difficult to draw useful conclusions from that alone. There is a degree of play-it-safe of course, and I think we do need at least the measures currently imposed. But yeah, going further I suspect would be more panicked reaction. And we'll see if measures clamp down on outside activity, or impose tighter restrictions on businesses and how we use supermarkets. Because, if the former, it's probably more a token to looking better, especially if the latter remains as-is.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It's not a new flu virus, c'mon, sort it out.

Technically not an influenza virus. But in general terms as we normally talk of 'flu' (by symptoms rather than cause), it is really. In normal times if you came down with this, you'd call in to work and say you have the flu.

 

[Cid]

They're slightly different examples, though. South Korea is an example of how to snuff out an outbreak before it spreads. Germany is an example of how to act early to prepare for and control an outbreak after it has spread considerably. Both share the characteristic of extensive testing, of course.

The thing to compare the UK to in terms of how they could have dealt with this really is Germany. South Korea's approach may be for next time, as it requires a change in overall thinking. Meanwhile, the UK and Germany have acted with the same amount of information available at roughly the same time - and at every step, Germany has been way ahead, from the longer term with provision of spare capacity built into their system, to the medium term with decisions being made early to invest in a testing regime and to enact social distancing, to the immediate term, in which, as a result of the first two measures, its health care system is coping, thus minimising deaths. They have an idea of what they are facing, and are facing up to it. They have turned exponential growth in deaths to linear growth very early on along the curve, and they have now flattened out new infections.

Talk last week and the week before was about how far behind Germany is on its curve. The question now has to be 'how far ahead is Germany?' It has decisively changed the shape of its curve compared other countries, while the UK has hurtled along up Italy's curve, or even Spain's curve. Not a single lesson learned.

I'm not sure about this... I mean SK does still have quite a high number of cases... It's been at more than 7.5k active cases since March 10, and has had an essentially steady daily increase since then (i.e about the same number of new cases/day). I say that because it may give some hope that these measures could be used effectively, even after an uncontrolled outbreak (as Europe is seeing now). That might be possible with a month of lockdown, followed by a programme of back-to-work testing, and maybe an app that assigns you a test based on your contact - so you'd answer questions like; 'were you classed as a key worker', 'if not, have you been working around others for the past few weeks'. Combined with extensive randomly sampled surveys, and that form of testing where they were thinking of analysing samples from multiple people at once (64?).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm not sure about this... I mean SK does still have quite a high number of cases... It's been at more than 7.5k active cases since March 10, and has had an essentially steady daily increase since then (i.e about the same number of new cases/day).

Not true. Its active cases have been declining daily now from a peak of 7.5k since March 11. The figure is now half that - fewer active cases than the UK is discovering new cases in one day. These are relatively tiny numbers. They haven't eradicated it, but they have very effectively squashed out the spread.

If we're being properly cautious, we could say that the 'safe' place to say that whatever measures you're enacting are working / the entirely population's had it! is the point at which a rolling weekly average of active cases starts to come down. SK hit that point more than two weeks ago, with still fewer than 200 dead. (And it never reached a high number of cases, btw - that peak of active cases is under 10 percent of many places still on the up.)