Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Cid]

Not true. Its active cases have been declining daily now from a peak of 7.5k since March 11. The figure is now half that - fewer active cases than the UK is discovering new cases in one day. These are relatively tiny numbers. They haven't eradicated it, but they have very effectively squashed out the spread.

Oh yeah, sorry - was looking at total cases. Though they did still have that peak.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Oh yeah, sorry - was looking at total cases. Though they did still have that peak.

The point is that this was their peak. The daily cases of about 100-odd now is actually something you can sustain rather well until vaccine. Assuming 1 per cent fatality, that's one death a day. Relatively tiny. If it takes off again in SK that ought to be considered a different outbreak, I would say. At the very least, they have bought themselves a massive chunk of time while avoiding mass death.

By comparison, we don't know what the UK's peak will be. 34,000 is the declared figure at the moment, but the true figure will be way higher, and it is going to continue to grow for a good while yet. And we can also say with confidence that SK's true figure will be much closer to their declared figure than the UK's both because they tested so much and because their death rate is still relatively tiny.

 

[Cid]

The point is that this was their peak. The daily cases of about 100-odd now is actually something you can sustain rather well until vaccine. Assuming 1 per cent fatality, that's one death a day. Relatively tiny. If it takes off again in SK that ought to be considered a different outbreak, I would say. At the very least, they have bought themselves a massive chunk of time while avoiding mass death.

By comparison, we don't know what the UK's peak will be. 34,000 is the declared figure at the moment, but the true figure will be way higher, and it is going to continue to grow for a good while yet. And we can also say with confidence that SK's true figure will be much closer to their declared figure than the UK's both because they tested so much and because their death rate is still relatively tiny.

Yeah, but my point is that it's not necessarily impossible to follow SK's model, at least to some extent. It would just have to be off the back of a long lockdown and enough data to actually know what's going on. It is hugely dependent on what the situation is, of which we have fuck all idea. But should it turn out that infection rates are on the low end I don't see much choice. Alternative is rolling lockdowns until vaccine.

 

[Wilf]

Up to 4313 deaths in hospitals:

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

www.gov.uk

Edit: that's up 708 from yesterday.

 

[teqniq]

Nicked from a friend on FB, says it all really:

 

[xenon]

I think we should be wearing masks, everyone when outside or with other people.

We are not being told to wear masks or other face coverings because government is worried there are already not enough masks for NHS workers, and if the general population was to wear them - well there wouldn't be enough for NHS frontline workers and the wider population.

This mask thing is getting on my nerves. The medical advice by the WHO is that general mask wearing is not necessary and indeed may be counter productive. The only peple who should be wearing masks are those with Covid19 or those treating them. Who cares what Trump says. Cloth masks and wearing scarfs over your face are no good anyway.

 

[weltweit]

..
This mask thing is getting on my nerves. The medical advice by the WHO is that general mask wearing is not necessary and indeed may be counter productive. THe only peple who should be wearing masks are those with Covid19 or those treating them. Who cares what Trump says. Cloth masks and wearing scarfs over your face are no good anyway.

If you watch the interview with the top South Korean Medic he says, masks can cut infection because they reduce the droplet cloud when someone coughs or sneezes, and the reason some EU and the USA aren't saying you should wear them is because they don't have enough for their health services - not that they aren't effective.

 

[SpookyFrank]

By my maths the three-day average for the number of deaths has been increasing at a steadily declining rate over the past four days. By eyeball prediction I would expect this average to be reaching a plateau point by Monday, with an average of fewer than 800 deaths per day. That would put us somewhere between Italian and Spanish territory.

e2a: Comparable analysis of what has happened in Italy shows one peak and then a second, higher peak a week later. The death rate in Spain, who we seem to be exactly a week behind, has not so much levelled off as oscillated a bit with a slight upward trend.

 

[Anju]

Definitely an increase in people out and about today. We live in Deptford and people using the river path have to come down our road a little way then turn off just before our house to get to the next section as there's no river access for a small stretch. I can tell they're not local as where you have to turn off it's not entirely clear and probably looks a bit menacing so non local people tend to stop and look confused for a bit. Everyone I have seen on my frequent fag breaks has got to there and stopped to work out which way to go.

I can see it being worse tomorrow as the people who were borderline on having a day out today think fuck it everyone else is out.

Found out this morning that a friend who works for the NHS, not frontline, has it and has been very ill for the last 4 days and symptoms are getting worse daily.

The government failure to get the message across properly, with one TV ad and Hancock and Johnson yesterday ordering and pleading respectively is just more proof of their utter incompetence.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Yeah, had to pop out earlier to get some essentials, people everywhere, didn’t seem like a lock down to me.

 

[Cid]

This mask thing is getting on my nerves. The medical advice by the WHO is that general mask wearing is not necessary and indeed may be counter productive. The only peple who should be wearing masks are those with Covid19 or those treating them. Who cares what Trump says. Cloth masks and wearing scarfs over your face are no good anyway.

The WHO advice is actually that they can help protect others against infection by someone who already has it (if the infectious person is wearing it). And I suppose the point with this disease specifically is that there is a potentially massive number of people who are asymptomatic, and an extensive campaign of mask-wearing could have an effect on that if/when we come out of lockdown. Or in supermarkets etc.

 

[xenon]

If you watch the interview with the top South Korean Medic he says, masks can cut infection because they reduce the droplet cloud when someone coughs or sneezes, and the reason some EU and the USA aren't saying you should wear them is because they don't have enough for their health services - not that they aren't effective.

Yes, when someone who as Covid19 sneezes. Their is evidence to show the general wearing of masks isn't effective and can lead to false sense of security. There anecdotal observations of mask wearers using them incorrectly, touching their face to adjust, remove etc. Using the wrong type of mask and so on.

Handwashing, social distancing, self isolation if you have the symptoms. I mean wear a mask if you want but let's not have this insisting against the evidence that we all should. That's mad and a bit dangerous, the logic of it.

 

[xenon]

The WHO advice is actually that they can help protect others against infection by someone who already has it (if the infectious person is wearing it). And I suppose the point with this disease specifically is that there is a potentially massive number of people who are asymptomatic, and an extensive campaign of mask-wearing could have an effect on that if/when we come out of lockdown. Or in supermarkets etc.

That's what I said.

 

[Cid]

That's what I said.

It isn't, but there we go.

 

[xenon]

It isn't, but there we go.

Er it is. The WHO don't recommend general wearing of masks. But those with Covid19 and those treating them should.

"The medical advice by the WHO is that general mask wearing is not necessary and indeed may be counter productive. The only peple who should be wearing masks are those with Covid19 or those treating them."

 

[Cid]

Er it is. The WHO don't recommend general wearing of masks. But those with Covid19 and those treating them should.

"The medical advice by the WHO is that general mask wearing is not necessary and indeed may be counter productive. The only peple who should be wearing masks are those with Covid19 or those treating them."

And how do you know whether you have a disease that potentially has a vast number of asymptomatic cases?

 

[treelover]

Sunday at 8 pm, was the last I read about that.

needed more than ever, never thought I would say that.

 

[weltweit]

It is Asian countries that have managed their coronavirus episodes best so far, and they all use face masks, plus they have experience of earlier slightly similar diseases, facemasks aren't at all alien for them. I think they know what they are doing, and I think we should be learning from them in this and other respects.

eta at least we should if we could get enough face masks and if people wouldn't panic buy them! There are some initiatives where people and even some clothes manufacturers are making face masks in the UK at the moment, they were in the news a bit when HMG was apparently considering changing the advice on masks. I suspect HMG didn't change their advice because they know that there is no way for the majority of the UK population to get their hands on masks!

 

[xenon]

And how do you know whether you have a disease that potentially has a vast number of asymptomatic cases?

What does the WHO say about that? I was talking about their advice which you seemed to hink I wasn't.

 

[xenon]

It is Asian countries that have managed their coronavirus episodes best so far, and they all use face masks, plus they have experience of earlier slightly similar diseases, facemasks aren't at all alien for them. I think they know what they are doing, and I think we should be learning from them in this and other respects.

They wear face masks when they have colds, because of pollution. The reason they have seemingly managed this a lot better isn't to do with masks ffs.

But fine, order your masks, probably getting the wrong type, fail to clean / manage them properly if it makes you feel better.

 

[Cid]

What does the WHO say about that? I was talking about their advice which you seemed to hink I wasn't.

I see what you mean, but wasn't really the substance of my post.

 

[weltweit]

They wear face masks when they have colds, because of pollution. The reason they have seemingly managed this a lot better isn't to do with masks ffs.
..

Have you seen the interview with the Korean doctor well he's actually the head of infectious diseases?

 

[Ms Ordinary]

It is Asian countries that have managed their coronavirus episodes best so far, and they all use face masks, plus they have experience of earlier slightly similar diseases, facemasks aren't at all alien for them. I think they know what they are doing, and I think we should be learning from them in this and other respects.

They also understand why they are wearing masks better than we do:

“My mask protects you - Your mask protects me”

so any move here towards general mask wearing would need a proper education campaign: why to wear, what to wear, how to wear...

There’s another argument for wearing a mask when outside to exercise or food shop: it reminds people that we’re living through a lockdown, not a normal sunny weekend.

We don’t all have to walk around looking / being miserable, but life should not feel normal at the moment.

I know it’s an argument that may be greatly outweighed by other factors (like - if wearing a crap homemade mask is actually worse at protecting those around you than nothing at all, plus any other Bad Science...)

 

[elbows]

I read that. He claims lockdown will paint Britain into a corner with no obvious exit except the herd immunity route.

Would it not make more sense to learn from Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and Hong Kong, since their approaches seem to be working, more or less? Lockdown is surely the only way to shrink the total number of infected people by bringing the virus's replication rate below replacement levels (R0 < 1 ). Then you'd have lots of little infection bush fires to run around and deal with, which is probably doable through tracing and quarantining, instead of one huge firestorm.

Singapore didnt have a proper lockdown to start with, but they are worried that their early gains are going to be lost, so in the past week they have moved much closer to a full lockdown, and non-essential businesses are now being closed.

The situation in Japan is evolving too, but I am out of date so cannot comment on that right now.

 

[elbows]

There is a danger of paranoia setting in here. You're not going to catch it by just walking past someone on the street. It's a new flu virus, but it's not a magic flu virus.

Yes please do keep calling it flu, it might alert people to the amount of other shit you talk about the subject.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Government daily briefing on now!

 

[little_legs]

Fucking hell, what a briefing. They are whispering and keep thanking each other & reporters. Gove is talking like a little naughty girl who shat herself on purpose despeately trying to speak RP English. No one listening to these losers is going to stay at home.

Meanwhile:

 

[SheilaNaGig]

Singapore didnt have a proper lockdown to start with, but they are worried that their early gains are going to be lost, so in the past week they have moved much closer to a full lockdown, and non-essential businesses are now being closed.

The situation in Japan is evolving too, but I am out of date so cannot comment on that right now.

An interesting bit of local observation on From Our Own Correspondent on R4 re: Japan .

Starts at 17’45”

From Our Own Correspondent - India's Forgotten Migrant Workers - BBC Sounds

India's drastic pandemic lockdown has trapped migrant workers desperate to return home.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Boru]

And still large gaterings are happening.. this makes infections very hard to isolate and at this stage this should not be happening.

Car park closed after 'thousands' risk their lives and others by flocking to Cassiobury Park

Cassiobury Park car park has been closed after “thousands” of people risked their lives and others by choosing to flout government Covid-19…

www.harrowtimes.co.uk

 

[cupid_stunt]

And still large gaterings are happening.. this makes infections very hard to isolate and at this stage this should not be happening.

Car park closed after 'thousands' risk their lives and others by flocking to Cassiobury Park

Cassiobury Park car park has been closed after “thousands” of people risked their lives and others by choosing to flout government Covid-19…

www.harrowtimes.co.uk

It's fucking selfish pricks like that, that are going to result in harsher restrictions for the rest of us, and more deaths, the cunts.