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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

two sheds said:
Isn't contact tracing a bit fucking late if we've got 40,000 odd cases and everybody's been moving around and mixing? A bit more useful right at the beginning I'd have thought.
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That's why, in addition to slowing transmission, a lockdown was necessary after they lost control, to buy time to make tracing viable again. Many will have run through the course and recovered while they're behind closed doors, or if asymptomatic, ceased to be infectious. Easing it will require locating remaining clusters, and perhaps lifting restrictions at different times in different places.

Even Herd Immunity Vallence has admitted that contact-tracing is necessary towards the end of an epidemic. Without it, we'll have no idea where the virus is concentrated, and will just end up with rolling lockdowns and spiking deaths until a vaccine's available. If only motivated by the basest self-interest, no government wants that.
 
The first batch of analysis is in from COVID Symptom Tracker - Help slow the spread of COVID-19

They have found evidence backing up their earlier suggestion that losing smell/taste is a very common early sign. They've produced a map of those of its 2.5 million followers who have lost sense of smell. It matches up impressively with the known hotspots, just on sense of smell alone. Sometimes a crude test can be the most effective in capturing useful data.

5e847295aeea3a7cf529a131_hr_loss_of_smell_20200329.png




Obviously the sample is biased. I'm symptom-free and signed up, but I would guess people are more likely to sign up to it if they have symptoms. But this kind of thing would be a great tool if there were the tests available. All 50,000 identified so far by the app to be likely with c19 undiagnosed could be tested. Not only might it efficiently find a ton of people who have it, but it would also help them enormously to understand if their assumptions are accurate and help them to make the survey more useful.

All kinds of things become possible with enough testing capacity.
 
Lost my log in info for the app post update a few days back so unable to tell them I'm mostly back to normal bar the loss of smell/taste.

I have had anosmia previously with a cold/flu like illness so I still have some caution over the possibility of it not being COVID causing it. Hoping I'll be able to be antibody tested at work (we've got some kits to try out). Perhaps the app users could have some priority for testing when capacity allows because the app data would then be so much more valuable.
 
I don't quite understand why this app isn't being promoted by the government. Surely it's a fantastically useful tool, and like most useful tools, it's really quite simple. Presumably the upgrade was to cope with demand? But they could easily deal with demand with some IT support from the government.

It is easy to use but doesn't treat people like idiots. It doesn't make false promises. It just does what it says on the tin.
 
This 'herd immunity' gamble seems a bit, 'if the witch drowns, she's innocent'. Are they being reasonable? If they act like madmen, why should we be surprised? Trump is their model. Where is the market now to solve all problems?
 
I havent tried to read the original source for this because I dont have the stomach for it right now (the mail argh), but anyway:

Nearly two-thirds of people think Boris Johnson got the timing of the coronavirus lockdown wrong.

A new poll found 66 per cent felt he left it too late to enforce stricter rules aimed at reducing social interaction and slowing the spread of Covid-19.

Researchers for MailOnline asked 1,500 people and just 34 per cent believe the decision was taken 'at about the right time'.

Now some 38% want the government to go further believing that current measures have "fallen short".
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www.coventrytelegraph.net

Nearly two-thirds think Boris Johnson got lockdown timing wrong

A total of 38% want the government to go further believing that current measures have "fallen short"
www.coventrytelegraph.net www.coventrytelegraph.net
 
littlebabyjesus said:
I don't quite understand why this app isn't being promoted by the government. Surely it's a fantastically useful tool, and like most useful tools, it's really quite simple. Presumably the upgrade was to cope with demand? But they could easily deal with demand with some IT support from the government.

It is easy to use but doesn't treat people like idiots. It doesn't make false promises. It just does what it says on the tin.
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NHS are working on their own, so presumably they'll be promoting that one. A shame, because the available one's highly impressive, especially given the speed with which it was rolled out.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Good point. I did forget one day. It's well done, though, given how quickly they must have got it together. And perfect is not what we need. Good enough and good to go. That's what we need.
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Yes good to see how 'simple' technology can provide important epidemiological data even if not proven to be linked when there is no remit for testing.

Presumably the app structure would be easy to recycle should this happen again.

Only downside would be if everyone and their dog releases a symptom tracking app data would be to patchy so NHS support/approval/promotion would be needed to direct users
 
two sheds said:
you'd think they'd interpolate if you enter 'no symptoms' on monday and again on saturday.
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Hopefully.

Big data like this is what we desperately need. The workings of the virus are really very poorly understood, but with enough data points you can bash down on biases and identify patterns that allow effective, targeted action without needing to understand why the data is quite like that. You can only get that with big numbers, though.
 
teqniq said:
Fucking idiots.

www.theguardian.com

Despite what Matt Hancock says, the government's policy is still herd immunity | Anthony Costello

We need a community surveillance programme to stop the spread of Covid-19, says Anthony Costello, professor of global health at UCL
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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That's completely damming. This is just about the biggest public policy scandal in decades. Measured against the Iraq invasion this will cost many, many more UK lives (though of course our actions contributed ultimately to about 1 million Iraqi dead). The sad thing is, with the usual caveats about who knows how things will play out, I'd put money on Johnson or some other tory being PM after 2025.
 
Scary stuff this coronavirus. Deaths and cases going up every day in the UK and the government still cannot provide PPE and ventilators in adequate numbers. Meanwhile Germany is putting us to shame on testing. And still no real support for the self-employed and those on zero-hours contracts.

They were also way to slow to act to this and should have had these lockdown measures in earlier. Then maybe this virus could have been contained better. Boris's first big test as PM and he is failing.
 
lefteri said:
Did you order this one? I did and it never arrived and the seller is no longer registered with ebay - tbh I never really looked at it properly, just ordered, but now notice that it claimed to be 25L for £7 which is preposterous
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Lol. I got done by the exact same seller. Commiserations. Makes me feel better that I'm not the only one, mind.
 
two sheds said:
There are also the operations that might have to be cancelled because the beds are taken up by coronavirus patients. Any deaths there could possibly be ascribed to cv too.
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From a corooner's report ,no, from hospital culpability waver point of view yes. Shouldn't show in the official stats as that
 
gosub said:
From a corooner's report ,no, from hospital culpability waver point of view yes. Shouldn't show in the official stats as that
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That's what I meant though, they wouldn't show in the official stats as caused by coronavirus but they would be as a result of it. So it to some extent balances the undercounting by some of those who die with existing conditions. (Or am I misunderstanding you?)
 
S☼I said:
Mrs SI went to the shops earlier and said everyone seemed very cautious about getting too close to anyone else, which reassured her.
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This is very much the case at work. Plus we have staff stationed around the store reminding people about the 2m rule, as well as taped out measurements on the floor. Also I would say that 80% of people coming into the store now wear face covering of some kind.

Though the reason we are able to do have staff on the shop floor to remind people is because so many staff, me included, are not now doing our normal jobs. It wouldn't surprise me if some supermarkets start furlouging staff if this goes on much longer.

We've also found that Friday is now one of our busiest, days. Coincides with paydays maybe and people want to stock up before the weekend? That may help to account for more cars on the road.
 
Wilf said:
That's completely damming. This is just about the biggest public policy scandal in decades. Measured against the Iraq invasion this will cost many, many more UK lives (though of course our actions contributed ultimately to about 1 million Iraqi dead). The sad thing is, with the usual caveats about who knows how things will play out, I'd put money on Johnson or some other tory being PM after 2025.
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Quick, wheel out the Queen to keep the growing scandal off the front pages.

i was thinking earlier how the lack of PPE for healthcare workers is analogous to Blair sending ’our boys’ off to die in Iraq without appropriate body armour, but suspect it won’t become the same right-wing talking point.
 
Artaxerxes said:
If you read the fine print it’s actually 500 initially, with up to 4000 eventually.
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Yes, I just thought it was deliberately misleading in a half hearted way. Also I'm sure I saw reports saying the total number would actually end up as 2800.
 
Anju said:
Yes, I just thought it was deliberately misleading in a half hearted way. Also I'm sure I saw reports saying the total number would actually end up as 2800.
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I’m just not sure how it’s going to get enough staff myself, it’ll be sucking a lot from other hospitals
 
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