two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
There are also the operations that might have to be cancelled because the beds are taken up by coronavirus patients. Any deaths there could possibly be ascribed to cv too.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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There are also the operations that might have to be cancelled because the beds are taken up by coronavirus patients. Any deaths there could possibly be ascribed to cv too.
elbows
Well-Known Member
OK SpookyFrank I transcribed the relevant bits from yesterdays press conference:
Hancock opening speech:
AP question (shortened and paraphrased by me): Is the Porton Down test similar to an opinion poll where you sample randomly?
Hancock:
John Newton:
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Hancock has just said the UK daily deathrate could peak on Easter Sunday with 1,000 on that day. If that was anything like the case and the curve down was anything like the curve up, that would be a total death rate around 20,000? Which was, iirc, the figure one of the science bods was claiming would be a good outcome a week ago.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yeah, that was my impression. The main road near our house features in most of my walks, so I've probably been on it 10 times since the lockdown. Today particularly looked like a normal day.
Sure - I was reading this harsh story on the graun earlier and was reminded that around this time last year we were told that the chemotherapy hadn't worked on Mrs B's oesophageal cancer and as surgery was too risky to be viable we were looking at palliative options, and she wasn't likely to see Christmas. A couple of weeks later the surgeon had a change of heart and decided to have a crack at removing it despite the risks - thank fuck cause it worked (so far) and she's still here (although I can't actually see her till this bullshit is done).
If we were in the same position this year, would the surgeon be prepared to have a crack? Would it even be possible to schedule it, considering it was a 14 hour operation with a week in intensive care afterwards? No chance - she'd have had to go home and sit by herself waiting to die like this guy. And there'll be hundreds of cases like hers, borderline risky cases which hinge on their consultant being willing to have a crack or not, who won't get those choices this year. Pretty horrendous tbh.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
The back end of the curve will be longer than the front edge. I'd say 30,000 is optimistic from here.
BigTom
Well-Known Member
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
If the figures from China are to be believed at all, the back end was much steeper than the front end. It'll be long because it will tail off for ages, but it could tail off at very low levels.
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Jesus, this is a shitshow.
eta - the daily briefing, not the thread!
Didn't that just get progressively worse and worse? The DNR question dodged - an important one to address, ffs (unless I'm wrong that that will be/already is a fucking reality in terms of conversations that health professionals are having to have with patients), the questions on testing (money doesn't matter/oh wait, money does matter, over any answer, target figures being confusing) the FIVE PILLARS 'strategy' seeming to be nothing more than an exercise in thinking up fucking names which ultimately result in even less actual answers and then the question re testing in comparison to Germany and Korea, countries with greater testing/lower death rates, resulting in a response around * France * not testing so much (deliberately ignoring the question) and a quick handover to the PHE (?) bod who then talked about the quality of tests, which came about from the previous question.
eta - the daily briefing, not the thread!
Didn't that just get progressively worse and worse? The DNR question dodged - an important one to address, ffs (unless I'm wrong that that will be/already is a fucking reality in terms of conversations that health professionals are having to have with patients), the questions on testing (money doesn't matter/oh wait, money does matter, over any answer, target figures being confusing) the FIVE PILLARS 'strategy' seeming to be nothing more than an exercise in thinking up fucking names which ultimately result in even less actual answers and then the question re testing in comparison to Germany and Korea, countries with greater testing/lower death rates, resulting in a response around * France * not testing so much (deliberately ignoring the question) and a quick handover to the PHE (?) bod who then talked about the quality of tests, which came about from the previous question.
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Potentially worse than Italy, then?
ETA: Sorry, that's exaggerating. Adjusting for population size, potentially as bad as Italy, then?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
That sounds reasonable, both with general blips and geographical blips. Apparently Hancock is distancing himself from this comment now (haven't seen him action, just reports)
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Well. It depends how you want to view it. A landlord is still allowed to send an eviction letter to a tenant. It could be either Section 21 (no fault eviction) or Section 8 (for non-payment of rent). The letter must have a 3 month notice period instead of the usual 2 month period (ooh, how fucking generous). And courts will not process possession orders for a while, and when they do they will push landlords to agree to repayment schedules rather than evicting due to unpaid rent.
It's actually a bit shit and not what I would call an evictions ban. I would have banned landlords sending eviction letters at all - just think of the stress when you've already lost your job, even if you know possession proceedings won't start for a while. Also the Scottish govt has promised a 6 month pause in evictions, which seems better. The fact is, when you get an eviction letter from your landlord in the next few months you should sit tight and go nowhere, as they won't be able to action it, but a lot of people won't know that. They'll think they have to leave with the 3-month notice period.
Louis MacNeice
Autumn Journalist
That was certainly my impression both on my journeys to and from work and while out and about at work; also more groups of people (including playing football in a local park).
The flip side is that there are more people really keeping themselves to themselves on my delivery route; including taping up their letter boxes.
It seems to me that people are unable or unwilling to stay at a consistent level of physical distancing and either become laxer or more strict; maybe it is due to our need to do something/affect some change/exercise some control.
Whatever is happening, the good weather coming up this weekend and the upcoming bank holiday weekend will test the government's current measures. Apologies for being a bit downbeat but today has left me feeling tired and gloomy.
Cheers - Louis MacNeice
elbows
Well-Known Member
Just to follow up on that, when I said I dont get the full data, if the press would publish it in full every day then I would be able to figure out the picture much better. But the only time I got to see that full list was, I believe, last Sunday. Well, I am posting about this again because it turns out that yesterdays data was published by some press, so if you are interested you can take a look at the format.
Scroll down this article a bit to see the list. And note that contrary to what their misleading title for that section says, its not a list of all deaths from every hospital, just the deaths that were announced on that day. But note that after each hospital it lists the number of cases and which dates they actually died on, so it would be possible to eventually build a proper picture, albeit one that always lags even further behind the current moment, but at least accurate. But since I dont get to see this list every day, I cannot actually build that picture.
Where 2,698 virus patients have died in England so far
561 more people have died from coronavirus in England
And one obvious example of how much a bunch of deaths reported from one hospital on one day can actually be spread out in time:
SANDWELL AND WEST BIRMINGHAM HOSPITAL NHS TRUST: 25 (5 X 29/3; 8 X 30/3; 1 X 25/3; 1 X 28/3; 2 X 23/3; 1 X 27/3; 2 X 26/3; 2 X 24/3; 1 X 22/3; 1 X 21/3; 1 X 18/3)
FridgeMagnet
Administrator
Technically no new proceedings for evictions are allowed; existing ones can go ahead.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Yeah. I was like that yesterday.
Roads here in London were also busier today when I went for my walk this afternoon. I don't know exactly what that means, but there were lots of cars on the Euston Road with single people in them - if they're key workers going home, I didn't see them the rest of the week. Some very fancy cars at that - these aren't nurses.
I'm kind of resigned to it now. I had kept hoping that the UK would just get lucky. It felt at least possible. But no. Fuck things up and you get a fucking bad result.
eoin_k
Lawyer's fees, beetroot and music
I think that precise question has been answered with both an emphatic 'no' and a reluctant 'yes' by Matt Hancock at different points today. Make of that what you will.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
'we're learning from other countries', they say.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I listened to all the press conference today and didn't hear him talk about contact tracing, yesterday I only had half of the conference so if he spoke about it I didn't hear it.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Presumably this is still about capacity. If there are 5,000 new admissions every day, that's most of the tests accounted for there and then. And NHS staff should still also be prioritised for testing, for their sake and because of the damage they will cause if infected. They're trying to firefight with just a trickle of water coming out of the pipe.
teqniq
DisMembered
Fucking idiots.
www.theguardian.com
Despite what Matt Hancock says, the government's policy is still herd immunity | Anthony Costello
We need a community surveillance programme to stop the spread of Covid-19, says Anthony Costello, professor of global health at UCL
rubbershoes
not the only raver in the village
It's completely made up. They've got no idea just possible projections.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
Good article ..Fucking idiots.
Despite what Matt Hancock says, the government's policy is still herd immunity | Anthony Costello
We need a community surveillance programme to stop the spread of Covid-19, says Anthony Costello, professor of global health at UCL
One comment, Hancock will probably have a plan for contact tracing for the time in the future when it will be needed, but I think he is only talking about a few days time in these press conferences, in this one the key message was just - yes it might be sunny at the weekend, but stay at home!
I went up to Hampstead today to do some shopping and pick up some meds for someone and can confirm that most rich people do not think social distancing applies to them. I also walked down a street of posh houses and five of them had current construction jobs ongoing. I fucking really hate rich people today.
It did seem busier everywhere though to be fair, and a different mood, people seemed less cautious and were taking less care. My hope is that the chance of getting it from someone you pass in the street or even in a shop is actually likely to be very low and that shutting down schools, workplaces and social gatherings will be enough to turn the tide. Because if it's not then we're fucked.
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
Mrs SI went to the shops earlier and said everyone seemed very cautious about getting too close to anyone else, which reassured her.
Azrael
circling Airstrip One
The article itself says that an app's being worked on, and on Twitter, there's been reports from various people in the tech sector that the government's pushing for research into contact-tracing. We'll see.
Costello's been excellent throughout, but a note of caution: we don't, at present, know what the government's policy is. It may still be herd immunity, but there's been furious pushback across the political spectrum, and signs of many politicians and commentators turning against PHE and the CMO/Chief Scientist. This isn't set in stone.
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