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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

teuchter said:
Not that you should be under any obligation to justify the level that you personally feel comfortable with, but waiting for prevalence to fall to 1/100th or 1/1000th or less of what it currently is, seems an extraordinarily cautious approach - is there any expectation we will reach those levels in the foreseeable future, or ever will? The red list threshold (however that was determined at the time) was determined on the basis of an unvaccinated population wasn't it?

I reckon that if Orang Utan doesn't have any especially risky pre-existing conditions, and really wants to go out raving, now is a "sensible" time to go out raving.

But maybe I've misunderstood what the expectations are from now on about the ongoing prevalence of Covid.
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I live and work with vulnerable people though, so it’s not just my health that I need to consider
 
The number of tests are certainly reducing significantly, but even the ONS survey seems to show a steady decline in cases.

The changes to the govt dashboard & "living with covid" mood music / lack of rules are all factors trying to push the pandemic into the background.
 
Yeah I cant read much into the positive test figures any more, have to rely on things like the ONS infection survey and ZOE instead. I'd include wastewater testing data too, except that data for England isnt published frequently enough to make timely use of. Although if that form of surveillance continues then I can use it to look back on the situation in the past with some degree of accuracy rather than to give clues about the current/very recent situation. I havent looked at Scottish wastewater data for months, if they still mention that stuff in their weekly report than its of more immediate use there.
 
There may well also be more or a spread of the BA.2 omicron variant in Scotland, this rise may start to be reflected in England more in the next few weeks. Or not. Who knows. Cases certainty arent declining towards zero in England as loads of people still havent been infected or got super high immunity to covid.

In my circle, 2 people (one NHS, one a carer) who have avoided Covid the whole pandemic (probably) have finally just caught it...
 
Riklet said:
There may well also be more or a spread of the BA.2 omicron variant in Scotland, this rise may start to be reflected in England more in the next few weeks. Or not. Who knows. Cases certainty arent declining towards zero in England as loads of people still havent been infected or got super high immunity to covid.

In my circle, 2 people (one NHS, one a carer) who have avoided Covid the whole pandemic (probably) have finally just caught it...
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(Sorry, I still don't know how to post the actual visual charts, two years on!)

What predictably happens when people are told it's all over and not to test anymore.
Similar outbreak in my work currently, too.
 
weepiper said:
Scotland is testing more so picking up more cases but also we don't have as high a level of natural immunity as England does because we haven't had the same number of infections previously.
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The recent ONS survey is showing that Scotlands numbers are indeed rising, they are using a different method of collecting data than the daily figures, they've been doing this survey throughout the pandemic apparently

www.theguardian.com

Scotland’s Covid cases rise, while England and N Ireland show falls

Data comes as UK’s scientific advisers to no longer meet on regular basis to discuss pandemic
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com


Also, these past 2 weeks I'm noticing a real uptick in reports of people my age being absolutely floored by this recent wave, which seems very different to what everyone was saying over xmas- I was looking after vulnerable people with it and they weren't nearly as ill as me and the boy and many friends are right now. Friend reporting the same, Scottish friends past two weeks way more ill than her London friends over xmas. For what that anecdata is worth..... :-/
 
I've got nothing useful to say about how sharp an upturn it is at this stage. The modest rise in daily hospital admissions/diagnoses seen so far does seem to be happening across all regions of England though.
 
My Spanish housemate works on the bar and was called into work with Covid. During the first few days of illness while actually ill. And he went in!! Daft prick never bothered registering with a GP despite me reminding him to for months. Hadnt had the booster cos he didnt have an NHS number. Sigh.

I think in the end he ended up going home but its just crazy the way behaviour has changed. He is quite careful and still got it too so id imagine the BA.2 variant could be a big factor for the 50% increase in cases round my part of the south-west.
 
cupid_stunt said:
On the dashboard today, the falling number of reported new cases we've been seeing for some weeks has been reversed, and they up by 28.2% in the last 7-days, despite less testing. :bigeyes:

Hospital admissions are also up slightly by 1.6%, and a slowing on the reduction rate for deaths, down by only -5.5%
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Oh, FFS, 7-day averages UK wide, new cases up 39.2%, hospital admissions up 11.1% (up 24.6% in the south-east).
 
So much for depiffle saying [in effect] it was all over.

No it bliiidddy isn't.

OH has a minor medical procedure booked for later this month, one that's been waited for & needs attending to, before anything more serious occurs / develops. So, we are all isolating / shielding ...
 
HoratioCuthbert said:
Do they have enough data yet to claim BA2 is "similar in severity" to BA1, because I think that's a load of bollocks tbh.
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I havent looked at international research on this recently, and the last published analysis for this country is several weeks old. eg:

Preliminary analyses of sequenced cases have been undertaken to compare the risk of hospitalisation, as defined by admission as an inpatient, or presentation to emergency care that resulted in admission, transfer or death, following BA.2 compared to BA.1. This analysis adjusted for age, reinfection status, sex, ethnicity, local area deprivation and vaccination status. It also controlled for the effect of geography and specimen date. The risk of hospitalisation does not appear higher following a BA.2 infection than following a BA.1 infection (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% CI: 0.75-1.00).

Although the central estimate indicates that the risk of severe outcomes for BA.2 may be lower than for BA.1, the variability of the data, as reflected by the confidence intervals, mean that it is not possible to conclude this with certainty. These results are preliminary, and it is possible that the estimates of the risk of hospitalisation may change as cases accrue.
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From https://assets.publishing.service.g...7359/Technical-Briefing-37-25February2022.pdf

In terms of bullshit, the biggest bullshit was the extent to which it was claimed that Omicron in general was mild. I dont have any particular reason to smell bullshit in terms of BA.2. Although we should note that the potential of a variant to cause more hospitalisation and death is not just related to severity, but also its transmissibility, ability to bypass existing immunity etc.

My future concerns about variants currently remain generalised, rather than a particular variant ringing alarm bells already. In the absence of clear signs about a new variant with obvious threat potential, my concerns for the UK in the short-medium term relate to human behaviour, reduced surveillance, and the unknowns about the extent to which protection against hospitalisation and death will wane in the months to come.
 
HoratioCuthbert said:
Do they have enough data yet to claim BA2 is "similar in severity" to BA1, because I think that's a load of bollocks tbh.
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(At the time of writing) There's no clear evidence to indicate that it is intrinsically more severe.

A couple of animal model studies have suggested it but epidemiological studies would tend to invalidate those results (hamsters are not human).

Laboratory and epidemiological data might suggest that BA.2 does appear to be slightly more transmissible and immune evasive than BA.1.

At the individual (not population) level, quite possibly antigenic exposure history may dictate the direction of pathogenesis (for particular genotypes).
 
platinumsage said:
Zero sign of a lack of antibodies in any boosted age group from the latest ONS release:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody data, UK - Office for National Statistics

Headline results of antibody data by UK country and regions in England from the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey.
www.ons.gov.uk

Compare to the drops after the second dose:

View attachment 313541
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Would be interesting to know how much of that difference in waning observed so far this time compared to last time was due to Oxford Astrazenicas use in lots of age groups for the first few doses.

Because I note the ONS raised the threshold value they are using as a cutoff point for these simple figures. And the research that informed that increased threshold, from November 2021 made this observation:

At least 67% protection against infection was estimated to last for 2-3 months after two ChAdOx1 doses and 6-15 months after two BNT162b2 doses in those without prior infection, and 1-2 years for those unvaccinated after natural infection. A third booster dose may be needed, prioritised to ChAdOx1 recipients and those more clinically vulnerable.
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www.medrxiv.org

SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG antibody responses after second dose of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 and correlates of protection in the UK general population

We investigated anti-spike IgG antibody responses and correlates of protection following second doses of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the UK general population. In 222,493 individuals, we found significant boosting of anti-spike IgG by second doses of both vaccines in all ages and...
www.medrxiv.org www.medrxiv.org

ONS are well aware that the research was pre-Omicron so some assumptions and implications may not be well covered by these particular antibody measurements at all. They dont provide a full picture of the implications and timescales of waning in practice. eg the threshold was chosen based on infection risk from pre-Omicron strains. Risk of hospitalisation etc changes due to waning is something we are most likely to learn about via the reality of what happens in the months to come, via hospitalisation data over time.
 
2hats said:
(At the time of writing) There's no clear evidence to indicate that it is intrinsically more severe.
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I know that, I am questioning whether you could call it this early. Obvs the load of bollocks part was me being more flippant, as well as feverishly unwell :)
 
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