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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

got an order in today for another box of LFT's (i'm down to 3 in the current box) as i intend to carry on testing now and then (i'm down to about once a week now, as i'm mosty wfh-ing) but would intend to test before going and visiting mum-tat (80+)

bet some twunts will be stockpiling the bloody things to sell after april

:mad:
 
I thought I would check John Campbells videos again to see if I could possibly have been unfair to him in previous posts.

I dont think so. A recent video was titled 'Pandemic ends Thursday' :facepalm:. In it he went on about how everyone would get Omicron, how he thought was better to get it sooner rather than later, and took a swipe at the likes of Vallance for daring to go on about future threats from variants etc. He also went on about levels of antibodies in the population without mentioning the limitations of the sample sources (eg blood donors only so not a completely fair reflection of society) and he wasnt even aware that data he wanted which showed the split between antibodies from infection and antibodies from vaccination has actually been available for ages.

I am hoping never to feel the need to watch another of his videos.
 
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gentlegreen said:
I find it challenging even to watch others deconstructing his cynical bullshit.
I hope he's not making a fortune out of it.

Bloody Youtube keeps showing me right wing shite and earlier there was some nutjob NZ virus-denying doctor.
Click to expand...
You can influence which videos it tries to recommend to you, at least if you are logged in. Hovering over the three dots next to video titles gives options including 'not interested' and 'dont recommend channel'.
 
elbows said:
You can influence which videos it tries to recommend to you, at least if you are logged in. Hovering over the three dots next to video titles gives options including 'not interested' and 'dont recommend channel'.
Click to expand...
Yes - I keep doing that but it keeps showing me the stuff.
I have a premium account ...
It was probably my fault for googling the antivax nutjob who was in here last night ...
 
Do any of the 'OMG! Nazism! Oppression!' lot in the UK perhaps feel the slightest bit silly now that all the public health rules they said were part of a well-plotted swing towards utter totalitarianism have been withdrawn?

I guess not. They'll probably a) assume it's because of their valiant efforts - and sad to say, it is in part, as the Tories want their votes more than they want the votes of the vulnerable and b) they'll just move on to complaining about the assault on their freedom of severe weather warnings.
 
I am continuing with all the precautions in spite of Government advice, but am wondering about when it would be sensible to stop mask-wearing and social distancing and start going to raves and going on foreign holiday? Is there an acceptable amount of transmission I need to be looking out for or something?
 
I'm another who's not dropping their guard [masks, distancing, deliveries] in the immediate future.

I'm also concerned as to how quickly the additional immunity from the booster is reducing.
The advice to 4th jab the over 75s and CEV cohorts later in spring indicates that decline in immunity is real.

I think I remember reading somewhere that an autumn jab for a wider group, together with one for flu is also planned ?
 
gentlegreen said:
I bet they're hoping that millions will opt for infection rather than vaccination ...
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I'm going to disappoint "them" as I'll want the jab and not an infection.

Although it hasn't. as far as I know, yet appeared, I'm sort of expecting another VOC with a tendency to develop serious illness to arrive.
 
gentlegreen said:
I bet they're hoping that millions will opt for infection rather than vaccination ...
Click to expand...
I don't actually think they're much bothered either way. They've got so used to the idea of making things go away by ignoring them - NHS problems, benefits claimants, coronavirus, Parliamentary convention - that pretty much nothing impinges unless they're hit in the face with it. Or the bank balance.
 
existentialist said:
I don't actually think they're much bothered either way. They've got so used to the idea of making things go away by ignoring them - NHS problems, benefits claimants, coronavirus, Parliamentary convention - that pretty much nothing impinges unless they're hit in the face with it. Or the bank balance.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think this about right. Johnson has always wanted to wash his hands of the whole thing hasn't he. You see people on here talking about the herd immunity plan as some sort of devious plot when what it really amounted to was an attempt to just shrug it off. He couldn't then but he reckons he's at the point now where he can safely leave it be so that's what he's doing.
 
Orang Utan said:
Is there an acceptable amount of transmission I need to be looking out for or something?
Click to expand...
My own guideline is to keep an eye on the 7-day rolling prevalence dipping to ≲20/100k (though a senior colleague is looking for ~1). So we are only off by a factor of several hundred (or a few thousand) right now (ONS/REACT; the daily testing number is largely meaningless other than perhaps, at times, as trend guidance).
two sheds said:
How long does it take for the booster to wear off?
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This begs questions like: 'What' is wearing off? How immunocompetent is the person concerned?

In the immunocompetent: circulating antibodies, which will tend to curb infection, will contract within several weeks to a few (<4) months; cellular immunity to severe disease will likely be maintained for up to 2, perhaps something out to (maybe) 5 years (speculation; data not yet available).

But then you will get infected (unless you completely isolate yourself from everyone and everything), particularly at current levels of prevalence, and each time the immune system will get "boosted" (assuming you survive, the odds of which tend to improve with each successful encounter with antigen, though will progressively slowly decay as you age (ignoring the plunge at the end)).
 
Orang Utan said:
when it would be sensible to stop mask-wearing and social distancing and start going to raves and going on foreign holiday? Is there an acceptable amount of transmission I need to be looking out for or something?
Click to expand...
It depends how much you want to go to raves or go abroad.
 
2hats said:
My own guideline is to keep an eye on the 7-day rolling prevalence dipping to ≲20/100k (though a senior colleague is looking for ~1). So we are only off by a factor of several hundred (or a few thousand) right now (ONS/REACT; the daily testing number is largely meaningless other than perhaps, at times, as trend guidance).
Click to expand...
How do you or your colleague arrive at these numbers?
 
teuchter said:
How do you or your colleague arrive at these numbers?
Click to expand...
20/100k was the trigger point for red listing travel the last two years.

My learned colleague is considering use of public transport and the prolonged occupation of shared, moderate-poorly ventilated confined spaces therein (me less so since I cycle or walk everywhere). They are a leading infectious diseases expert.
 
2hats said:
20/100k was the trigger point for red listing travel the last two years.

My learned colleague is considering use of public transport and the prolonged occupation of shared, moderate-poorly ventilated confined spaces therein (me less so since I cycle or walk everywhere). They are a leading infectious diseases expert.
Click to expand...
But are they arrived at from the point of view of personal risk, or public health responsibility?
 
Monkeygrinder's Organ said:
You see people on here talking about the herd immunity plan as some sort of devious plot when what it really amounted to was an attempt to just shrug it off. He couldn't then but he reckons he's at the point now where he can safely leave it be so that's what he's doing.
Click to expand...

Hardly anybody here did that, there was one person who came to u75 during the pandemic and kept going on about deliberate murder but I think they fell silent after a month or two.

Herd immunity was indeed briefly used as a justification for not doing very much, the original plan to mostly have people carry on with their lives. Johnson influenced that approach but even without him it was an approach deemed highly compatible with the traditional UK establishment way of doing things, the usual cold calculations, the orthodox approach. A narrower, modified version of the same sort of rationale was also used to justify a very slow rollout of vaccines for children and young adults much later on.

Likewise at the stage we and many other countries have reached now, Johnson pushes further and faster than some, but the same overarching agenda is being pursued in many countries with roughly the same timing.
 
2hats said:
Both.
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Not that you should be under any obligation to justify the level that you personally feel comfortable with, but waiting for prevalence to fall to 1/100th or 1/1000th or less of what it currently is, seems an extraordinarily cautious approach - is there any expectation we will reach those levels in the foreseeable future, or ever will? The red list threshold (however that was determined at the time) was determined on the basis of an unvaccinated population wasn't it?

I reckon that if Orang Utan doesn't have any especially risky pre-existing conditions, and really wants to go out raving, now is a "sensible" time to go out raving.

But maybe I've misunderstood what the expectations are from now on about the ongoing prevalence of Covid.
 
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