LDC
On est tous des pangolins
No drama apart from those for whom it isn't though. We're still kicking along at 150 or so dead daily.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
No drama apart from those for whom it isn't though. We're still kicking along at 150 or so dead daily.
Agent Sparrow
the age of slippers and migraines
Not with a massive party night in 3 days time
I know newspapers group related articles together, and further more have agendas and bias, but these 4 together don’t seem to bode well…
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Anecdotally lots of people I know irl have got it or are awaiting test results having been a contact. Including me, because my kids' stepmother has PCR tested positive today after getting symptoms yesterday. The kids were at their house up til Saturday lunchtime so we're all off for a PCR tomorrow morning too.
elbows
Well-Known Member
He doesnt actually speak about the proportion of cases.
As I mentioned earlier, there is data on this. Its imperfect and lags a bit behind other hospital data, and only comes out once a week. And its for number of patients in hospital, rather than daily admissions.
Here for example is that data for London, which currently only goes up to December 21st. Both 'for' and 'with' have risen in similar style up to that moment. As a result, so far there is only a modest increase in proportions of 'with', but this may become more significant over time, so I will comment on this again next time that data comes out.
There are a few other things we can make use of. Given more time for data to come in, the number of patients on mechanical ventilators will start to provide quite some guide as to severity.
And then there is the aspect NHS management etc are not keen to give quotes to the press about - hospital infections. Omicron is expected to cause a lot of hospital infections, and this is already showing up in the very basic data I can ascertain, and via anecdotes such as those from IC3D above. This is always going to have logistical implications that people will need to find solutions for if they want to be able to live without covid restrictions. Whether it also has morbidity and mortality implications to the same sort of extent as we saw in the first two waves remains to be seen, in theory this variant and vaccines should make a notable difference, but this also depends what sort of wards outbreaks happen on and the sheer number of cases.
Data comes from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
I guess a lot of that is still from Delta. Is there any data on that for Omicron yet?
l'Otters
.
Omicron was identified in South Africa about one month ago.
It takes time for people to get infected, get sick, and die.
I realise why this is, and I’m also wishing there were answers / more data to go on right now - But the way to get those answers is the somewhat ghoulish activity of waiting to see how many people die of omicron type covid in the next few weeks.
It takes time for people to get infected, get sick, and die.
I realise why this is, and I’m also wishing there were answers / more data to go on right now - But the way to get those answers is the somewhat ghoulish activity of waiting to see how many people die of omicron type covid in the next few weeks.
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Looks like 60+ cases in London (and England), are starting to reach previous highs (with a rise from around the 13th, followed by a real jump from the 20th, for both), so I guess that may start to have an impact. Can only hope not.
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Yes, it's awful.
I understand people getting tired and worn down and depressed and anxious, I really, really do - but I still feel the 'wait', the 'test', is just so fucking horrifying.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
"grunt of annoyance"
I ordered a pack of LFTs before chrimble [on checking, it was on the 23rd] and unlike the previous supply which arrived in less than three days, I'm still waiting. No sign of the "tracking email" either !
[Also sent for some new masks just after doing that ^^^ & they've already arrived]
I ordered a pack of LFTs before chrimble [on checking, it was on the 23rd] and unlike the previous supply which arrived in less than three days, I'm still waiting. No sign of the "tracking email" either !
[Also sent for some new masks just after doing that ^^^ & they've already arrived]
Agent Sparrow
the age of slippers and migraines
Conversely I got two tracking emails, 24 hours apart, when I hadn’t ordered any.
They didn’t turn up tbf.
20Bees
Well-Known Member
I let my daughter have my unopened pack so she could continue to test herself and her son daily during her isolation. The site will not let me order more to be posted and the collection code I got last week to pick some up locally is of no use when none of the pharmacies in a 10 mile radius have any LFTs in stock. I can be tested at work, but that’s not an option for everyone.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Been pondering the stats for omicron.
All the people I know (over 20) that tested positive recently had something that was indisguinshable from a cold and recovered in 3-4 days.
We are week 3 with omicron, with 628016 officially recorded infections from 13-19 December, there are ~1000 people a day going to hospital. Its been said they aren't going in because of covid, but are being added to the numbers because they routinely test you for it when you go in. They are also saying the average discarge time for covid is 3 days. Its also been said showing symptoms is 2 days and recovery is 5 days. Its 90% of infections in London now, its ripped through.
Comparing with last year at the peak 1-7 Jan there were 397874 recorded infections , translating to 28000 people a week going to hospital and that caused about 8000 deaths a week, 2 weeks later. We were unvaccinated and locked down.
Jury is still out but I am starting to agree with the statement
We shall know pretty soon
All the people I know (over 20) that tested positive recently had something that was indisguinshable from a cold and recovered in 3-4 days.
We are week 3 with omicron, with 628016 officially recorded infections from 13-19 December, there are ~1000 people a day going to hospital. Its been said they aren't going in because of covid, but are being added to the numbers because they routinely test you for it when you go in. They are also saying the average discarge time for covid is 3 days. Its also been said showing symptoms is 2 days and recovery is 5 days. Its 90% of infections in London now, its ripped through.
Comparing with last year at the peak 1-7 Jan there were 397874 recorded infections , translating to 28000 people a week going to hospital and that caused about 8000 deaths a week, 2 weeks later. We were unvaccinated and locked down.
Jury is still out but I am starting to agree with the statement
Sir John Bell said:
We shall know pretty soon
Last edited:
l'Otters
.
Yeah
I’m utterly fed up of it all
And sometimes just …sometimes I take a step back & notice that having such a thing as a daily death toll from this … it’s part of what I feared was coming back in March of 2020 but less sudden… it’s fukin grim
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Was it ever the younger generations at greater risk?
And weren't older people always at greater risk, later?
Hospital admissions in England, alone, rose from 926 on 19/12, to 1,374 on 26/12.
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
I hear you.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
No, go and look at the stats rather than repeating something you have half-heard or skim read as a simple fact.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Thanks for that, as you say when it is next updated it will be interesting to see if the 'with' number has become an even greater percentage recently, as implied by the head of NHS providers.
Mind you 400ish out of a 1600 total, is still a fairly large 25%, I doubt it was anything like that in pervious waves.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
Understanding what is going on is made much harder by the politics around the current wave. It seems clear it's milder by some amount, but quite how much and what we have to expect in the next month is clouded by politicians, commentators and scientists who have already made up their minds that we're in the clear to justify the English government's 'do as little as possible' approach.
It seems that the protective wall around the incompetent Johnson, which has rendered him teflon for so long, has been breached by the Tory right who didn't like his political direction of travel and the resulting party revelations have damaged his popularity. Johnson is in the last chance saloon and candidates are already preparing for a leadership contest. The CRG/ERG/batshit insane right of the party see themselves as kingmakers (or queenmakers) and they have been opposed to Covid measures that impinge on personal freedom and damage the economy all along. They certainly don't want to see them now. Johnson feels he needs an audacious plan to retain power and refusing to implement the measures suggested by his scientific advisors is a gamble that if it pays off could see him hold onto his position for longer.
To justify his approach there's a crowd of people, many of whom are the same voices who were questioning the need for strong measures last autumn, which did result in the carnage of last winter. It's interesting how the question of how mild Omicron is has been spun. There were a number of reports putting it anywhere between a 40% and 85% reduction in hospitalisations; the UKHSA put the figure between 50% and 70%. This was widely reported as "up to 70%" and is now often discussed as being a definate 70%. The issue of 'people in hospital with' as opposed to 'people in hospital because of' Covid has become a big talking point. Anything to minimise the size of the gamble Johnson is taking.
Will he get away with it? I don't know and nor does he or anyone else. Since he's now taken it I hope he does, because if he's wrong we're facing a mess in the coming weeks. There's always the optimistic possibility that Omicron is a milder form of Covid, everyone will get it, be a bit ill, and then we'll all have had it and can carry on. But there's still the possibility that hospitals will fill up, staff absence will hit healthcare and food distribution and everything else and he's forced into a humiliating and damaging hard lockdown. Or possibly something in between.
It was a difficult decision that any government would've faced. If Omicron does prove to be milder then implementing measures that weren't needed would be unpopular, but with the stakes so high it seems unwise to be doing nothing (and Plan B - a largely unenforced requirement to wear masks and a frequently unenforced covid pass to show you're either vaccinated, which doesn't stop you catching and spreading it, or have an easily fakable and unreliable negative LFT - is basically nothing). There were (and still are) options available short of a lockdown, but they all hurt someone. If pubs/clubs/restaurants or schools were shut down there would be entirely accurate howls of outrage about the damage to the industry or children. But if we end up in a harder lockdown we'll have those impacts and more anyway. But we have Johnson's government of corruption and incompetent, so my faith in them having the country's best interests at heart is non-existent.
Fingers crossed for whatever happens next.
It seems that the protective wall around the incompetent Johnson, which has rendered him teflon for so long, has been breached by the Tory right who didn't like his political direction of travel and the resulting party revelations have damaged his popularity. Johnson is in the last chance saloon and candidates are already preparing for a leadership contest. The CRG/ERG/batshit insane right of the party see themselves as kingmakers (or queenmakers) and they have been opposed to Covid measures that impinge on personal freedom and damage the economy all along. They certainly don't want to see them now. Johnson feels he needs an audacious plan to retain power and refusing to implement the measures suggested by his scientific advisors is a gamble that if it pays off could see him hold onto his position for longer.
To justify his approach there's a crowd of people, many of whom are the same voices who were questioning the need for strong measures last autumn, which did result in the carnage of last winter. It's interesting how the question of how mild Omicron is has been spun. There were a number of reports putting it anywhere between a 40% and 85% reduction in hospitalisations; the UKHSA put the figure between 50% and 70%. This was widely reported as "up to 70%" and is now often discussed as being a definate 70%. The issue of 'people in hospital with' as opposed to 'people in hospital because of' Covid has become a big talking point. Anything to minimise the size of the gamble Johnson is taking.
Will he get away with it? I don't know and nor does he or anyone else. Since he's now taken it I hope he does, because if he's wrong we're facing a mess in the coming weeks. There's always the optimistic possibility that Omicron is a milder form of Covid, everyone will get it, be a bit ill, and then we'll all have had it and can carry on. But there's still the possibility that hospitals will fill up, staff absence will hit healthcare and food distribution and everything else and he's forced into a humiliating and damaging hard lockdown. Or possibly something in between.
It was a difficult decision that any government would've faced. If Omicron does prove to be milder then implementing measures that weren't needed would be unpopular, but with the stakes so high it seems unwise to be doing nothing (and Plan B - a largely unenforced requirement to wear masks and a frequently unenforced covid pass to show you're either vaccinated, which doesn't stop you catching and spreading it, or have an easily fakable and unreliable negative LFT - is basically nothing). There were (and still are) options available short of a lockdown, but they all hurt someone. If pubs/clubs/restaurants or schools were shut down there would be entirely accurate howls of outrage about the damage to the industry or children. But if we end up in a harder lockdown we'll have those impacts and more anyway. But we have Johnson's government of corruption and incompetent, so my faith in them having the country's best interests at heart is non-existent.
Fingers crossed for whatever happens next.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
according to them, due to be delivered today [29th] - sat in the postal system 23rd to 27th then 28th at the Tyneside depot but is out for delivery today [29th].
andysays
Love and solidarity
Story here about supply of LFTs
Covid: Warning over patchy lateral flow test supply
Among other things, this seems likely to mean the figures for number of positive cases will be an underestimate.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Little known fact, he was a DJ on Radio Caroline back in the 60s.
Anyway, it's not just LFTs, there's problems with PCR tests again.
UK cases hit new daily record of 183,037; Spain cuts isolation period to seven days – as it happened
Case figures include delayed data from Northern Ireland; Spain cuts quarantine despite record rise in cases
Sounds an eminently sensible post to me
andysays
Love and solidarity
Don't know what Gale's position on all this is, whether he's one of those arguing for less restrictions, but to some extent the government are victims of their own wishes to relax restrictions and cut isolation times.
If you change the rules so that people can isolate for less time providing they test more, you inevitably increase the demand for testing, and that demand can't be magically met simply because the rules have changed.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
It seems one of the main problem with LFTs was no deliveries over the Xmas period, despite many pharmacies being open over that period.
www.theguardian.com
UK cases hit new daily record of 183,037; Spain cuts isolation period to seven days – as it happened
Case figures include delayed data from Northern Ireland; Spain cuts quarantine despite record rise in cases
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
You'd think that someone might have anticipated, yannow, like, Christmas, and planned accordingly...oh wait, we're in Boris Johnson's Britain, that kind of thing doesn't happen any more.It seems one of the main problem with LFTs was no deliveries over the Xmas period, despite many pharmacies being open over that period.
UK cases hit new daily record of 183,037; Spain cuts isolation period to seven days – as it happened
Case figures include delayed data from Northern Ireland; Spain cuts quarantine despite record rise in cases
Similar threads
