Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[LDC]

I am also much less certain of the push for strong restrictions now than I have been in the past tbh. Lots of the language being used to justify that position makes me sick (as do many of the people who have been against any measures all the way through this), but I do have some sympathy for the position of having minimal measures now. For a few reasons that might try and write something about later.

 

[Artaxerxes]

I am also much less certain of the push for strong restrictions now than I have been in the past tbh. Lots of the language being used to justify that position makes me sick (as do many of the people who have been against any measures all the way through this), but I do have some sympathy for the position of having minimal measures now. For a few reasons that might try and write something about later.

There are very clever people arguing both sides and both doing it very convincingly at the moment so it's a bitch to make your mind up.

 

[_Russ_]

If you want to discuss NHS reforms, maybe start another thread rather than cluttering up this one?

He made a point relating tothe subject under discussion and one he apparently has a deeper understanding of than yours, you simply ragged on it because it doesnt align with your opinion without any considered counter to what was said. You seem prone to this

 

[LDC]

There are very clever people arguing both sides and both doing it very convincingly at the moment so it's a bitch to make your mind up.

Actually just came back to delete my comment as really unsure either way, but since you've quoted it I'll leave it. And my position is mirrored among my friends who have also been very strongly in favour of restrictions until now as well.

 

[Agent Sparrow]

Where do you get your comprehensive and deep understanding of the NHS and those that work in it?

Tbf there is some truth there, for consultants of a certain age who were full time or on about 4 days per week. It caused some thoughtfulness for a psychiatrist I worked with who would probably been 10 years older than me. I think her new position elsewhere did drop her hours below the threshold but she certainly wouldn’t have made up the extra time as private work, because that count as earnings*.

I can’t reminder the details but it would have been a quite considerable pension drop, and whilst yes, consultant doctors get good pensions, any sudden and considerable drop with little warning is going to cause an anxious reaction. Humans feel losses more keenly than gains, after all.

That last sentence being why some people are so resistant to go back on to restrictions now I guess.

*Edit: just looked it up, apparently private earnings don’t count towards it, presumably because they’re not pensionable salary. Still, my previous point stands that IME the majority of part time consultants aren’t just doing it for extra private work on the side but for reasons such as childcare, work/life balance and quality of life. Statistically I bet it’s skewed towards women too.

 

[Supine]

I think he makes some important points about learning to live with the virus. Some time ago he did a thread on how often we could expect to pick up a covid infection. If i remember correctly it worked out to be about once every nine years.

The vaccines are doing a great job so far and I’m looking forward to getting back to normal now whatever that means. Todays picture is much rosier than a year ago, even with evolving covid to account for.

There is still more to be done with improved ventilation, jabbing the unvaccinated etc etc. but it’ll be nice to have this whole thing off of every news cycle after this winter.

 

[Agent Sparrow]

There are very clever people arguing both sides and both doing it very convincingly at the moment so it's a bitch to make your mind up.

Part of the problem is that the debate all seems so all or nothing, at least in England. It’s not a case of no/minimal restrictions or lockdowns, there are in between stages.

Tbh the bit I’m most concerned about is NYE. I get that I’m not at the stage of my life of being able to celebrate (kids who need babysitters, also the exhaustion that comes with having kids of that age and working!) and that it feels special to many, but also I can see it causing a huge surge in transmissions.

Having said that, NYE tends to be hugely underwhelming for many people who go out anyway, so maybe it would be a public service to cancel it

 

[Artaxerxes]

Part of the problem is that the debate all seems so all or nothing, at least in England. It’s not a case of no/minimal restrictions or lockdowns, there are in between stages.

Tbh the bit I’m most concerned about is NYE. I get that I’m not at the stage of my life of being able to celebrate (kids who need babysitters, also the exhaustion that comes with having kids of that age and working!) and that it feels special to many, but also I can see it causing a huge surge in transmissions.

Having said that, NYE tends to be hugely underwhelming for many people who go out anyway, so maybe it would be a public service to cancel it

It's not helped by the government lackadaisical "do nothing until it's to late" approach over last few years. The people arguing for restrictions now were and have mostly been right. But we're majority boosted now, sooner or later we're going to have to see if the boosters work without everyone keeling over. We'll be getting new variants forever, we aren't going to stop them entirely.

I'm not happy with where we are but this might actually be the end of the beginning. I'm still masking and taking care and that needs to be encouraged as we feel our way to the other side of this. That's what we aren't going to get out of the government and needs to happen.

I don't do NYE anyway, I don't drink so it's essentially the same as any other weekend of watching people get paralytic with added fireworks.

 

[Agent Sparrow]

It's not helped by the government lackadaisical "do nothing until it's to late" approach over last few years. The people arguing for restrictions now were and have mostly been right. But we're majority boosted now, sooner or later we're going to have to see if the boosters work without everyone keeling over. We'll be getting new variants forever, we aren't going to stop them entirely.

I'm not happy with where we are but this might actually be the end of the beginning. I'm still masking and taking care and that needs to be encouraged as we feel our way to the other side of this. That's what we aren't going to get out of the government and needs to happen.

I don't do NYE anyway, I don't drink so it's essentially the same as any other weekend of watching people get paralytic with added fireworks.

Yeah, I just think it’s unfortunate that Christmas and NYE, both occasions that encourage loads of mixing, are so close together. Shame NY couldn’t have been delayed by a couple of weeks this year. Would certainly make January more pleasant!

 

[Agent Sparrow]

I would be happier if younger kids in general had the chance to be vaccinated, not just the clinically vulnerable ones.

 

[chilango]

Own decisions 1: some people go out on NYE, pubs are fairly full, no social distancing. Significant number of those people get infected and then pass it on (with additional impact on the NHS).

Own decisions 2: some people don't go to pubs, large house parties etc. Don't get it or pass it on.

What's the difference between 1 and 2? Is it some people making the wrong decision, the wrong 'risk assessment'? Well, perhaps, in a literal sense it is.
But it's the government that decides whether option 1 is an option at all. It's the government that doesn't fund sick pay or further furloughs. This is public health, it's the government that sets the context in which individual choices take place.

Own decisions 3: People choosing option 1 passing the virus (directly or indirectly) to People choosing option 2. Where's the freedom of choice (sic) in that?

 

[cupid_stunt]

I am not keen on the use of the terms 'with' or 'from' covid when discussing hospital admissions, as there was a lot of drum beating from covid-deniers using these terms during pervious waves, when clearly the vast majority were being admitted actually needed treatment for covid.

However, there was an interesting interview with the head of NHS Providers on the news channels, based on his conversations with various Trust leaders, saying there's a lot higher proportion of patients coming in now for all sorts of other reasons, with no covid symptoms, and no need of treatment for covid, that are testing positive, and counted in the official figures.

Apparently there's currently no way of separating the 'with' or 'from' covid figures, which would be bloody useful.

It certainly makes sense that this time there could be a big different between those two sets of patients, because of the combination of vaccines and omicron being more mild, plus the very high levels of community infection.

He did make clear that it's still too early to dismiss concerns about the Omicron.

My gut feeling remains that staff sickness could end-up being the bigger problem this time, rather than raising cases & hospital admissions.

“As the number of cases in the community rises, we are definitely seeing more people who’ve got incidental Covid,” he told Sky News.

“In other words, people who haven’t got symptoms have come in for something else and then when they come into hospital, they’re testing positive.

“So what our chief executives are saying is just be careful about over interpreting the data.”

Do not 'over-interpret' data showing rise in Covid hospital admissions, says NHS chief

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals and other NHS trusts in England, said there had been a rise in people testing positive for Covid "incidentally" after being admitted to hospital for different issues

inews.co.uk

“What’s particularly interesting is how many chief executives are talking about the number of asymptomatic patients being admitted to hospital for other reasons and then testing positive for Covid.

“Trusts are not, at the moment, reporting large numbers of patients with Covid type respiratory problems needing critical care or massively increased use of oxygen, both of which we saw in last January’s Delta variant peak.

“We should therefore be cautious about over interpreting current Covid admission data.

Staff absences are creating such pressure that “even relatively small numbers of extra Covid cases may bring difficult decisions on prioritisation and staff redeployment”, according to NHS Providers chief executive Chris Hopson

Medical leaders have expressed fears that “something is going to have to give” as one modeller said as many as 40% of London’s NHS workforce could be absent, with Covid-19 a major factor, in a worst-case scenario.

Covid admissions rising but NHS not overwhelmed, say trust leaders

But they have warned it is too early to dismiss concerns over Omicron.

www.independent.co.uk

 

[LDC]

I am not keen on the use of the terms 'with' or 'from' covid when discussing hospital admissions, as there was a lot of drum beating from covid-deniers using these terms during pervious waves, when clearly the vast majority were being admitted actually needed treatment for covid.

However, there was an interesting interview with the head of NHS Providers on the news channels, based on his conversations with various Trust leaders, saying there's a lot higher proportion of patients coming in now for all sorts of other reasons, with no covid symptoms, and no need of treatment for covid, that are testing positive, and counted in the official figures.

Apparently there's currently no way of separating the 'with' or 'from' covid figures, which would be bloody useful.

It certainly makes sense that this time there could be a big different between those two sets of patients, because of the combination of vaccines and omicron being more mild, plus the very high levels of community infection.

He did make clear that it's still too early to dismiss concerns about the Omicron.

My gut feeling remains that staff sickness could end-up being the bigger problem this time, rather than raising cases & hospital admissions.

Do not 'over-interpret' data showing rise in Covid hospital admissions, says NHS chief

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals and other NHS trusts in England, said there had been a rise in people testing positive for Covid "incidentally" after being admitted to hospital for different issues

inews.co.uk

Covid admissions rising but NHS not overwhelmed, say trust leaders

But they have warned it is too early to dismiss concerns over Omicron.

www.independent.co.uk

Yeah, and long term the (possible?) need to keep people coming in for an issue but with covid separate from all other patients is going to be nightmare.

 

[two sheds]

It's going to need multiples of three wards isn't it? Not tested, confidently tested negative and tested positive. Yep sounds like a nightmare, with staff testing conditions too.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

He's one of the non-SAGE scientists advising the government afaik.

Yes, he is and it really shows too.

 

[Brainaddict]

I have wondered if the intensity of this peak in London means it might burn itself out quite quickly. The government might be counting on that. And they would look quite silly if they brought in drastic measures and a week later the case rate dropped massively. As usual you can argue they are at the riskier end of the possible strategies, but that doesn't mean it won't pay off.

 

[Agent Sparrow]

I have wondered if the intensity of this peak in London means it might burn itself out quite quickly. The government might be counting on that. And they would look quite silly if they brought in drastic measures and a week later the case rate dropped massively. As usual you can argue they are at the riskier end of the possible strategies, but that doesn't mean it won't pay off.

I think what we don’t know is what the genuine rates have been over the last few days. Question is what’s going to have happened by the 30th/31st, rates like we’ve got now or a dramatic jump upwards? I’m not sure I’d want to bet either way, though obviously I’m hoping for the first option.

Of course Christmas will have spread things further outside London.

 

[Sue]

He made a point relating tothe subject under discussion and one he apparently has a deeper understanding of than yours, you simply ragged on it because it doesnt align with your opinion without any considered counter to what was said. You seem prone to this

I was trying to clarify what his point was As it's not specially germane to the current discussion, I suggested starting a new thread. Not sure why you've got your knickers in s twist but hey...

 

[kenny g]

Yeah, I just think it’s unfortunate that Christmas and NYE, both occasions that encourage loads of mixing, are so close together. Shame NY couldn’t have been delayed by a couple of weeks this year. Would certainly make January more pleasant!

Maybe would have been more sensible to adopt the Chinese New Year this time round - although not sure how IDS would have reacted to that.

 

[Agent Sparrow]

Maybe would have been more sensible to adopt the Chinese New Year this time round - although not sure how IDS would have reacted to that.

My god, could you imagine the Sun/Express/Mail’s reaction to that suggestion?!

 

[kenny g]

I was trying to clarify what his point was As it's not specially germane to the current discussion, I suggested starting a new thread. Not sure why you've got your knickers in s twist but hey...

You asked for clarification. I clarified and then you suggested I was "cluttering" the thread. Charming behaviour but fortunately I have thick skin and life moves on..

 

[Sue]

You asked for clarification. I clarified and then you suggested I was "cluttering" the thread. Charming behaviour but fortunately I have thick skin and life moves on..

You sound so cross. (((kenny g )))

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Own decisions 3: People choosing option 1 passing the virus (directly or indirectly) to People choosing option 2. Where's the freedom of choice (sic) in that?

right wing interpretation of 'freedom of choice' - 'i am going to do what i like and sod everyone else'...

 

[elbows]

Actually just came back to delete my comment as really unsure either way, but since you've quoted it I'll leave it. And my position is mirrored among my friends who have also been very strongly in favour of restrictions until now as well.

In many cases this is a pretty simple combination of being tired of the pandemic, expecting a lot from vaccines, and the uncertainties about Omicron which leads to uncertainties about how strong the response needs to be.

As always my preferred option would have been to go in hard and early, but for a brief period of time. This option has never been on the cards here though, and people continue to struggle to grasp the logic, preferring to wait and see instead. Hopefully this time they will get away with it, but if not then I will make a renewed push to explain my stance and how the alternatives that may seem superficially more moderate end up dooming us to much heavier shit in the end. I'd much rather avoid the need for such rants so finger crossed the Omicron burden will end up within tolerable levels. But it is a disgrace that we are in a position where we have to rely on hope.

 

[elbows]

Apparently there's currently no way of separating the 'with' or 'from' covid figures, which would be bloody useful.

Those figures have been available since mid 2021. They are imperfect but they are a much better guide than no figures at all. I will discuss them later.

 

[elbows]

I have wondered if the intensity of this peak in London means it might burn itself out quite quickly. The government might be counting on that. And they would look quite silly if they brought in drastic measures and a week later the case rate dropped massively. As usual you can argue they are at the riskier end of the possible strategies, but that doesn't mean it won't pay off.

With a faster spreading variant the peak should be sharper and quicker. But questions remain about what levels it falls down to afterwards, and how the spread into older, more vulnerable age groups which dont make up the bulk of daily positive case figures but can make up a very large chunk of the hospital burden end up turning out in this Omicron wave with very high vaccination rates.

On a very much related note, given that many of the oldest tended to receive their boosters first, authorities will also need to watch for any signs of the booster waning in a manner that could upset any delicate balance of coping that may initially emerge.

 

[elbows]

All the usual names in this one, taking their usual line - Paul Hunter, John Bell, Nick Triggle. Bell mentioned the '400 daily admissions in London' thing that has been implied to be a trigger threshold for taking further action.

Other views do emerge towards the end of the article.

Covid: Evidence does not support more England curbs - minister

Decision not to impose more measures in England will be kept under close review, George Eustice says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[brogdale]

Sky report with some simple numbers:

The number of people in hospital with COVID in England has risen to 9,546, according to latest figures.

This is up 38% from a week earlier and is the highest number since 3 March.


The latest figure compares to 8,474 yesterday, according to NHS England and is a 12% rise in the number of people in hospital in a single day.

 

[brogdale]

and this for London:



3/8ths of peak ever doesn't sound too great to me.

 

[IC3D]

Hospital wards in London are full of COVID patients. Non symptomatic or mild but admitted for other problems. Its a legistical nightmare and a huge swathe of staff off sick. This last point is the Biggie if it continues.
Omicron seems to do a good job of causing ward outbreaks despite testing in place, I suspect it's not being touched by boosters ATM but I have no specific evidence just a feeling.
Thankfully most patients with it are oblivious except those that have regular flu symptoms.
I hope it's just mild disease now. Looks like it as so many unvaxxed here and no drama