Is the October the first school strike on anyone's radar? Fair amount of parents getting a bit pissed off at the government's compulsory infection plan:
Overall, I don't see a clear picture of case numbers rising at the moment. It's been wobbling up and down for several weeks. There currently seems to be a downward trend in hospital admissions and ICU numbers, although these of course tend to lag somewhat.
I live in no 2. Devon had low numbers during last winter, so I assume this is Delta + Covid exploiting new markets.I havent had time to look at overall England data recently, I will get round to it soon because you know I like to look at it by age group.
But aside from that I recommend zooming into individual places to see whats happening, because the picture is probably still very mixed depending on where exactly you look, and sometimes opposing trends cancel each other out when looking at overall national numbers. I'd tend to use the following website and tables such as 'R-Values - Highest First' and then look at the graphs for some of those places on the official dashboard.
COVID-19 in England - Estimates of R for each Local Authority
archive.uea.ac.uk
A screenshot of some of the places with very highest R values from that site right now, in this case I'm just highlighting ones with an R over 1.4(!) There are currently 248 places where R is over 1.0 in this data.
View attachment 290657
Case numbers are a pretty relaible guide for what will happen with hospitalisations, but since school age cases may be a very large part of recent increases, I need to look at per-age figures in order not to end up with the wrong expectations about the level of hospitalisations that will show up in the next week or so.
I know correlation / causation but all this does seem to imply that existing immunity gained through exposure is playing a big roll here. Since the latest lockdown was eased I've been expecting something quite bad to happen in SE London due to various factors but primarily due to comparatively low vaccine uptake. So far that doesn't seemed to have occurred.
Vaccines are brilliant
ETA: If the history of the pandemic has taught me anything is that speculation like this from someone like me is usually wrong anyway so expect a massive spike in SE London any day soon.
So weekly positive tests up by 18%. Hmmm.
Where has that figure come from?
According to the dashboard they are up 'just' 6.5%
UKHSA data dashboard
Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UKcoronavirus.data.gov.uk
Where has that figure come from?
According to the dashboard they are up 'just' 6.5%
UKHSA data dashboard
Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UKcoronavirus.data.gov.uk
BBC live news ticker https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58744991
- A total of 191,771 people tested positive for Covid in England in the week to 22 September, a rise of 18% on the week before, Test and Trace figures show
My area (Calderdale ) has been pretty bad through all the peaks except the first one. This time its been noticeable that some of the more rural areas have been much worse hit than previously but even so, some of the same areas are getting hit again and again. There doesn't seem to be much evidence that the virus has burned itself out anywhere. It really puzzles me that London gets short peaks and drops down pretty low again when in other parts of the country it just seems to grind on and on.
I havent had time to look at overall England data recently, I will get round to it soon because you know I like to look at it by age group.
But aside from that I recommend zooming into individual places to see whats happening, because the picture is probably still very mixed depending on where exactly you look, and sometimes opposing trends cancel each other out when looking at overall national numbers. I'd tend to use the following website and tables such as 'R-Values - Highest First' and then look at the graphs for some of those places on the official dashboard.
COVID-19 in England - Estimates of R for each Local Authority
archive.uea.ac.uk
A screenshot of some of the places with very highest R values from that site right now, in this case I'm just highlighting ones with an R over 1.4(!) There are currently 248 places where R is over 1.0 in this data.
View attachment 290657
Case numbers are a pretty relaible guide for what will happen with hospitalisations, but since school age cases may be a very large part of recent increases, I need to look at per-age figures in order not to end up with the wrong expectations about the level of hospitalisations that will show up in the next week or so.
Guess where I've been working in schools this week?
Teignbridge
Guess where I've been working in schools this week?
Teignbridge
That Kettering graph just says to me ‘school’ and ‘parents of schoolchildren’ based on the age ranges most affected.
It's gone from "late" around 16:00, to "not before 18:30" and now it's "not before 20:30" ...I'm not doing the national graphs I mentioned I would do today because todays data is late.
It's gone from "late" around 16:00, to "not before 18:30" and now it's "not before 20:30" ...
I'm now wondering wtf has gone wrong with the data collection / analysis !