Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[_Russ_]

Wales is now above 500 case per 100.000 and our NHS is about as close to collapse as Ive ever seen it.
Todays claim of 10 years to clear a backlog in Cancer care needs to be seen for that really means...thousands of people not ever getting the cancer treatment they otherwise would and dieing
I cant get to see a GP I dont know what the fuck they are doing tbh, either on long term holiday or sat at home counting all the £12:50s per head for jabs whilst picking out the accessories for next years merc or range rover while the nurses, real doctors and army are working their tits off I presume?
We no longer have a first world health service, its broken down

 

[Buddy Bradley]

And this Covid rates map from the same surveillance report is probably a nice simple way for me to point out the current regional variations.

View attachment 289930

It's grim oop north.

 

[Supine]

I cant get to see a GP I dont know what the fuck they are doing tbh, either on long term holiday or sat at home counting all the £12:50s per head for jabs whilst picking out the accessories for next years merc or range rover while the nurses, real doctors and army are working their tits off I presume?

Wow. Perhaps maybe doctors have had a really tough couple of years don’t you think.

 

[_Russ_]

Wow. Perhaps maybe doctors have had a really tough couple of years don’t you think.

Doctors on the whole yea, GP's though have been hiding for the past 18 months...and they've got used to it.

 

[elbows]

The GP side of the health system was always likely to break down over time even without the pandemic, eg via baby boomer demographics affecting both the number of patients seeking attention and a generation of GPs retiring. Plus there were pre-pandemic trends in far more GPs becoming part time.

Chuck in all the pandemic-related woe and the other parts of the system lacking capacity and I'm not surprised its falling over these days. And the lack of service from the GP side of things adds significantly to hospital A&E pressures.

Probably a bold new vision and a much larger chunk of GDP needs to go into completely rebuilding frontline healthcare in this country. Crude, half-arsed attempts to shift some of the burden to online and phone based services isnt good enough. I'd include a decent version of online consultation, patient management and records as part of the proper solution, but probably we also need a whole new class of real physical clinics and frontline services, as well as much better efforts to deal with long term health issues.

Another completely broken aspect is the entire attitude to prescription drugs. Just look at how ridiculous some of these figures are:

The review found that around one in five hospital admissions in the over-65s are caused by the adverse effect of medicines as well as 6.5 per cent overall. It also recommends further research into why overprescribing disproportionately affects older people, people with disabilities and ethnic minorities.

Ministers to crack down on overprescription of medicines on the NHS

Government-commissioned review finds 10 per cent of drugs prescribed by primary care doctors are not wanted or needed

www.independent.co.uk

We need an NHS 2.0.

 

[Supine]

Doctors on the whole yea, GP's though have been hiding for the past 18 months...and they've got used to it.

Idiot

 

[maomao]

That's exactly how I feel about my gp tbh. They were always shit though.

 

[elbows]

There are good GPs and bad GPs and average GPs. Some criticism is fair and some is misdirected because the big issues are systemic or demographic related and the GP gets blamed simply because they are on the front line, the most immediate face of a failure that goes far beyond what they are actually the cause of. There are some class issues too.

Its also entirely understandable if they are 'hiding' from face to face patient contact during the pandemic, since their chances of meeting the virus in those conditions is rather high. But yes we cannot judge that in isolation, it merges with other factors and peoples oversimplified notions and frustrations when they dont get the service they expect.

I wont let GPs off scot free, but I wont be blaming them for demographic timebombs and health system entropy. But they dont escape inclusion in a broader critique of half-arsed Britain and its unsustainable fudges.

 

[Elpenor]

I have to say it's taken me 20 years to find a good GP practice. The three I was registered with in Reading were all pretty poor. I still never see the same doctor down here but I feel a lot more valued and listened to as a patient at my current practice.

 

[xenon]

I guess I am pretty lucky with my health, but I never bother with GP. Last saw one about 10 years ago I think. Probably I should have seen them for one or two things since then but when there are no appointments for two weeks kind of figured well I’ll be dead or better by then.

 

[kabbes]

Someone needs to tell the map maker that you either run your colour coding on a spectrum from green through blue to purple (like the govt dashboard) or you run it from green through yellow to red. You don't set it up so that green is not your colour for "best".

I’m not sure I necessarily agree with this. Red for hot and blue for cold are well established semiotics

 

[teuchter]

I’m not sure I necessarily agree with this. Red for hot and blue for cold are well established semiotics

On the best most legible maps they don't have green in between though.

 

[kabbes]

On the best most legible maps they don't have green in between though.


View attachment 289968

Agreed, green is a poor choice of intermediate colour. It’s not unknown, mind, particularly in RAGB gap analyses (red = problem without resolution, Amber = problem with resolution, green = no problem, blue = complete). Not that this map is a gap analysis, which is why I agree that green is a poor choice for intermediate.

 

[two sheds]

Richard Of York Gave Battle In Vain

 

[elbows]

This sort of article is probably fair enough given some of the trends seen in England in recent months:

‘A bit of a mystery’: why hospital admissions for Covid in England are going down

Analysis: Experts say it is first time since start of pandemic that sustained decline is recorded out of lockdown

www.theguardian.com

However it does leave some possible factors out (eg a period of nice weather a while ago that would be expected to temporarily affect case numbers which would then have affected hospitalisations a bit later. But even if it included them we still wouldnt learn much more beyond the very easy prediction that this period of the pandemic would be messy.

For eample its fair enough for them to highlight the possibility that the immunity picture is making a big difference, and that there are probably tugs of war going on there. But I need months more in order for the immunity situation to be tested under a wider range of circumstances eg worsening weather, less hours of daylight, evolving contact patterns, impact of schools and universities, any waning immunity. Plus we are still seeing how the immunity picture is balanced against the current level of contacts, levels which are still well below the pre-pandemic norm. Anyway I dont really object to herd immunity being mentioned because thats only a dirty word to me if it is used in certain contexts or to make a claim that isnt really proven yet.

I'm not sure about the bit where a claim is made that there was no 'obvious change in behaviour' in Scotland at the time of their fall in cases. There are plenty of fluctuations in behaviour and contact mixing patterns reported on in weekly reports for Scotland, such as https://www.gov.scot/binaries/conte...9-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-70.pdf These changes might not be dramatic enough to really show up on some experts radars though, and I dont think the data on that fully captures the publics response to worsening case numbers and mood music. By the way that report again has their wastewater surveillance data showing the same trend as the official testing system, increasing confidence that the decrease in positive cases mirrors the real picture.

If we are lucky then the immunity picture is indeed leading to a situation where even when there can be massive spikes in cases in some or all age groups, these end up being relatively short-lived. But much uncertainty remains.

 

[_Russ_]

Supine, You know how much a GP gets paid to do one overnight shift as an out of hours Doc?...I do and its well North of a grand.
Its a tough job, but plenty of nurses got it tougher every fucking night and they dont get paid a small fortune or get to spend the the rest of the week sat down fobbing off patients with a phone call

 

[Orang Utan]

Wales is now above 500 case per 100.000 and our NHS is about as close to collapse as Ive ever seen it.
Todays claim of 10 years to clear a backlog in Cancer care needs to be seen for that really means...thousands of people not ever getting the cancer treatment they otherwise would and dieing
I cant get to see a GP I dont know what the fuck they are doing tbh, either on long term holiday or sat at home counting all the £12:50s per head for jabs whilst picking out the accessories for next years merc or range rover while the nurses, real doctors and army are working their tits off I presume?
We no longer have a first world health service, its broken down

they’re just really busy what with covid and everything. they’re certainly not off golfing

 

[elbows]

Also see articles from earlier this year such as:

Asked how their career plans for the year ahead had changed, 36% of GPs who responded to a BMA poll said they planned to take early retirement.

Just over half of respondents said they planned to reduce their working hours, around a fifth said they planned to quit the NHS for an alternative career or to move abroad - and around 15% said they planned to shift to working as a locum. Among doctors who had changed their plans, workload and personal wellbeing were the main reasons cited for the change.

More than one in three GPs plan early retirement as pandemic and workload take toll

More than a third of UK GPs plan to retire early and many more to reduce their working hours in the coming year as unmanageable workload and the pandemic leave the NHS facing a 'ticking timebomb', the BMA has warned.

www.gponline.com

 

[StoneRoad]

_Russ_

Far from "fobbing" people off with phone appointments, GPs are still incredibly busy with all the usual things, on top of dealing with covid ...

My OH had a swollen gland in the neck. After an initial couple of phone appointments - which generated a 'script for antibiotics - there was a face-to-face appointment [after OH got a -ve LFT / PCR test results].
Then an urgent referral to the regional ENT centre, seen within two weeks and then after isolating & further -ve PCR test, an ultrasound & biopsy also within the next two weeks. Followed by a further GP appointment. Ultrasound & biopsy to be repeated in 3 months.
I don't see a failing NHS / GP service, I see one that is heavily overloaded and doing it's best to cope ...

PS - FYI - one of our older local GPs came out of retirement to assist the with the vaccinations, he's been doing covid, flu, pneumonia, shingles and the usual childhood jabs at both the local surgery and the area's hub for several months. I saw him in May for the covid jab ... and last week he was doing flu jabs at an evening clinic, although I got one of the nurse practitioners.

 

[two sheds]

My GPs are stars - I actually quite like phone consultations since I don't really have anything to show them. I just make a list of things I want to talk to them about, they give me lots of time.

 

[Supine]

Supine, You know how much a GP gets paid to do one overnight shift as an out of hours Doc?...I do and its well North of a grand.
Its a tough job, but plenty of nurses got it tougher every fucking night and they dont get paid a small fortune or get to spend the the rest of the week sat down fobbing off patients with a phone call

Next time you get ill who you calling? Oh, don’t bother calling the doctor - it’s triaged now, a phone call is used to limit their f2f time due to a global pandemic. Crazy. Call a vet instead. Is that annoying you a bit? Should we force them into a room with you?

 

[Chilli.s]

I have had to deal with my parents GP several times in the last year, they have been nothing but helpful.
Phone consultations and home visits were readily offered and used as well as surgery appointments.

If it's needed it seems to still be there.

 

[Mation]

Does anyone know if covid test centres or postal pcr tests give quicker results these days? Or will it be about the same? I'm in London if that makes any difference.

My PCR test results are way slower these days. I used to get them after around 24 hours, but it seems to be a week or more, now.

 

[Brainaddict]

My PCR test results are way slower these days. I used to get them after around 24 hours, but it seems to be a week or more, now.

I did mine postally in the end, it was delivered in 24hrs, sent it off Wed around 11am and got the result 6am on Friday, maybe I was lucky.

 

[StoneRoad]

Local area has gone right down ref new cases / case rate, after being in excess of both the county and national rate, it is now well below those. That might have something to do with the around 90% first dose vaccination rate, which for the local area is higher than the county & national rates (ditto for second doses) ...

Not quite sure what will happen with the boosters, we've already had our flu jags.

(& I need to get my pneumonia one organised - I think I may have "some" immunity, as a serious dose of it nearly killed me when I was a ten-year old. Told about the details afterwards, with that & what I remember :- what had been a cold rapidly went downhill, GP visited late at night, called ahead and arranged for admission & father drove me to the hospital. Spent some time in an oxygen tent & got a large dose of penicillin jabbed into my bottom. Shortish spell in hospital but much longer convalescing at home ... left me very weak for a long time & prone to bronchitis for years)

 

[PursuedByBears]

From City Council FB page:
"Covid-19 cases across Lancaster and Morecambe have risen sharply by 46% in one week.
The number of people testing positive across the district now stands at 463 per 100,000, with increases in all age groups in the past week."

 

[Dogsauce]

Think we’re going the way of Scotland aren’t we? I’m now one of those numbers (subject to PCR confirmation). Let the bodies pile high…

 

[Indeliblelink]

So is the "worst cold ever" going around at the moment? I'll want to see more evidence than a BBC Newsbeat article taking their info from random student's tweets.

Super cold: Is 'the worst cold ever' going around?

As more of us mix and the weather gets colder, the common cold is back - and it's flooring people.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Given my focus on the large role of infections acquired in hospital in this pandemic, I am not at all pleased about the following development:

Hospitals in England can relax Covid rules to treat more patients

Testing and isolating low-risk patients before planned operations can be dropped, new advice says.

www.bbc.co.uk

However I do recognise the need to balance different factors, especially when factoring in the backlog. But it still makes me nervous and I will try to keep a close eye on the resulting situation. The data I get in daily, near realtime form on hospital infections for England is rather incomplate but it still provides strong clues about trends so I'll certainly be keeping a closer eye on that in the months ahead and will be sure to shout about it if it goes to shit.

I suppose I'll also file this in the 'gains we make as a result of vaccines etc very quickly being converted into different sorts of gains by the authorities' pile.

 

[Brainaddict]

So is the "worst cold ever" going around at the moment? I'll want to see more evidence than a BBC Newsbeat article taking their info from random student's tweets.

Super cold: Is 'the worst cold ever' going around?

As more of us mix and the weather gets colder, the common cold is back - and it's flooring people.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Rebecca did lateral flow tests and got negative results, but has been ill for more than a week"

For fucks sake. And the beeb doesn't even point out that she took the wrong test. A friend of mine did the same last week, then later in the week her friend she'd been hanging out with tested positive with PCR and she realised she must have covid after all. Still hasn't done a PCR test herself. They really need to start sending out the LFT boxes with big stickers on them saying GOT SYMPTOMS? DON'T TAKE THIS TEST. GET A PCR INSTEAD.