elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm pretty sure Paul Hunter is the name I keep seeing in connection with recent press talk about 'endemic equilibrium' and here we are again but with added detail:
Thats from a BBC live updates page 14:15 entry, with the main thrust of that entry being the apparently imminent decision about booster shots: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58391759
This is the first I've heard of the numbers to expect and the timescale. I currently lack the ability to judge whether he is right about that detail. I will try to get clued up about this more in the months ahead. I'm certainly not inclined to simply take his word for it. And the number of actual cases per day should not be confused with the number we formally identify through testing.
He also says Covid-19 is approaching the "endemic equilibrium", the number of cases we should expect to see per day forever. In other coronaviruses that have been circulating for many years in humans, this is about 45,000 cases a day, Prof Hunter says.
But he says because of widespread immunity, the serious illness of Covid-19 will be "consigned to history", except for occasional cases. In most pandemics, the professor says this takes about three years.
Thats from a BBC live updates page 14:15 entry, with the main thrust of that entry being the apparently imminent decision about booster shots: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-58391759
This is the first I've heard of the numbers to expect and the timescale. I currently lack the ability to judge whether he is right about that detail. I will try to get clued up about this more in the months ahead. I'm certainly not inclined to simply take his word for it. And the number of actual cases per day should not be confused with the number we formally identify through testing.